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  • Umpires are a nice advantage to know!

    Analyzing MLB Umpires

    When handicapping baseball, one of the most important yet often overlooked factors is the umpire. Unlike some other sports where the officials have very little effect on the outcome of a game, baseball umpires can be as important as any player on the field.

    Umpires can be looked at much like starting pitchers when analyzing a game. Each umpire calls a different gam! e; some are consistently involved in high-scoring contests while others favor low scoring. You wouldn't place a wager on a game without knowing who is pitching; the same should go for umpires.

    The main reason behind these umpire differences is the size of their strike zones. Some umpires have smaller strike zones than others, leading to higher-scoring games. After all, a smaller strike zone means more walks, which in turn results in more run scoring opportunities. The smaller strike zone also forces pitchers to throw a greater number of balls up and over the plate, right where the hitters want it. So far this season, we have seen some remarkable numbers relating to a few particular umpires.

    When it comes to high-scoring games, Paul Schrieber and Hunter Wendelstedt have led the pack. Both have called a whopping 12 overs compared to just three unders so far this season. In games called by Schrieber, an average of 12.1 runs have been scored. Wendelstedt has seen 10.9 run! s per game. This season does not appear to be an anomaly for Schrieber, as last season the over was 18-12 in his 30 games behind the plate. Wendelstedt, on the other hand, called 22 unders last season compared to just 10 overs.

    At the other end of the spectrum, Tim Timmons has been an under machine. The under has cashed in 14 of his 15 games behind home plate this season. In those games, there has been an average of just 6.5 runs scored, almost half of Schrieber's numbers. Perhaps he has adjusted his strike zone this season, as last year the over was a profitable 20-13 when he donned the mask.

    Jerry Meals is an example of an umpire that calls a very consistent game. This season, Meals has been involved in 11 unders compared with just six overs. Since 2000, the under has a very profitable 92-55 record in Meals' games. If there is one thing that players like to see out of an umpire, it is consistency. Whether they like their calls or not, as long as the umpire is cons! istent, most players don't have a problem.

    Some umpires also appear to have a tendency to call games that favor the home team. The reason behind this is hard to explain without accusing an umpire of being a 'homer'. So far this season, Paul Nauert has seen the home team compile a 13-3 record in his games. He also appeared to be somewhat of a 'homer' umpire last season, as home teams went 15-9 when he called the balls and strikes. Not far behind Nauert this season has been Doug Eddings. In his games, the home side has gone 12-3. The visitors have only managed an average of 2.53 runs per game while Eddings is behind home plate.

    Last season, Jim Reynolds was crowned as 'homer' king, as the home side was a remarkable 24-8 in his games. While he has seen the home team cash more often than the visitors again this season, the margin is not quite as wide at just 10-6.

    As you can see, if you take the time to do some analysis, certain umpires can pave your way to profits! . By looking at both the starting pitchers and the umpires, you can come up with some very strong angles, especially when dealing with totals. When it comes to capping baseball, it's a good idea to use any edge you can get. Knowing the umpires is just one of them.

    Hope this reprint from a new book out helps some.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

  • #2
    Question ??? What do you use to find out which umpire is behind the plate each night. I started searching after reading your post and can't find any sites which have this info as of now. Thanks in advance.

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    • #3
      Try this link...
      http://www.sportsbook.com/statfeed/m...?sortby=umpire

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      • #4
        Thanks BrezzeEaze. Unique site
        "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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        • #5
          breeze, I can get the stats of the umpires, but still can't find who is the umpire tonight behind the plate for each game. Thanks for the info in advance.

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          • #6
            USA Today sports

            I think USAtoday.com has the plate umpires listed along with o/u records in the game matchup section. The sagarin ratings on pitchers is also pretty cool.

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            • #7
              loc33, I went to the usa today baseball site, but in the match-ups, UMPIRES N/A Is there a certain time the homeplate umpire is listed, or is there a site that does list the home plate umpires now? The help is appreciated, thanks guys.

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              • #8
                loc33, I just went back there and some of the umpires are listed, but not all. I guess I'll wait and see when all the umps are listed. Thanks again

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                • #9
                  The Umps won't be listed for game 1 of any series.

                  IMO knowing the home ump is most important for baseball totals. Some umps favor hitters while others favor the pitcher.

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                  • #10
                    C overs.com is another site that lists the umps after game 1.

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                    • #11
                      Nice Info! Thanks!

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                      • #12
                        mlb .com will have the umps 1 hour before game time. as stated earlier, after 1st game of series, they're easier to find. i use jim feist . com

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                        • #13
                          hey guys

                          anybody know if a favorable over,under,or home team ump. is going tonight-also think this would be great info to post nightly-we can call it umps updates or whatever-i will help look up the stats too-sincerely chung!!
                          DON'T YOU EAT THE YELLOW SNOW !! PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !!

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                          • #14
                            Spark sometimes has info in his trends on the umps. I believe it can only help us to see the intricacies of the game. Incatricies, intrincular whatever. Could pan out to be another arrow we can stick on our bow.
                            "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              ones i could find

                              pitt-balt.8-4 under ump.///atl-laa.home ump.8-1///tor-cubs.home ump.8-3///yanks-milw.home 9-4,,over7-4///bost-st lou.over 7-4///det-la under 7-4///anybody else///iron chung..would love ump. stats for tex-phil and san. fran-k. city///thanks chung..
                              Last edited by WayneChung; 06-07-2005, 07:00 PM.
                              DON'T YOU EAT THE YELLOW SNOW !! PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !!

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