Analyzing MLB Umpires
When handicapping baseball, one of the most important yet often overlooked factors is the umpire. Unlike some other sports where the officials have very little effect on the outcome of a game, baseball umpires can be as important as any player on the field.
Umpires can be looked at much like starting pitchers when analyzing a game. Each umpire calls a different gam! e; some are consistently involved in high-scoring contests while others favor low scoring. You wouldn't place a wager on a game without knowing who is pitching; the same should go for umpires.
The main reason behind these umpire differences is the size of their strike zones. Some umpires have smaller strike zones than others, leading to higher-scoring games. After all, a smaller strike zone means more walks, which in turn results in more run scoring opportunities. The smaller strike zone also forces pitchers to throw a greater number of balls up and over the plate, right where the hitters want it. So far this season, we have seen some remarkable numbers relating to a few particular umpires.
When it comes to high-scoring games, Paul Schrieber and Hunter Wendelstedt have led the pack. Both have called a whopping 12 overs compared to just three unders so far this season. In games called by Schrieber, an average of 12.1 runs have been scored. Wendelstedt has seen 10.9 run! s per game. This season does not appear to be an anomaly for Schrieber, as last season the over was 18-12 in his 30 games behind the plate. Wendelstedt, on the other hand, called 22 unders last season compared to just 10 overs.
At the other end of the spectrum, Tim Timmons has been an under machine. The under has cashed in 14 of his 15 games behind home plate this season. In those games, there has been an average of just 6.5 runs scored, almost half of Schrieber's numbers. Perhaps he has adjusted his strike zone this season, as last year the over was a profitable 20-13 when he donned the mask.
Jerry Meals is an example of an umpire that calls a very consistent game. This season, Meals has been involved in 11 unders compared with just six overs. Since 2000, the under has a very profitable 92-55 record in Meals' games. If there is one thing that players like to see out of an umpire, it is consistency. Whether they like their calls or not, as long as the umpire is cons! istent, most players don't have a problem.
Some umpires also appear to have a tendency to call games that favor the home team. The reason behind this is hard to explain without accusing an umpire of being a 'homer'. So far this season, Paul Nauert has seen the home team compile a 13-3 record in his games. He also appeared to be somewhat of a 'homer' umpire last season, as home teams went 15-9 when he called the balls and strikes. Not far behind Nauert this season has been Doug Eddings. In his games, the home side has gone 12-3. The visitors have only managed an average of 2.53 runs per game while Eddings is behind home plate.
Last season, Jim Reynolds was crowned as 'homer' king, as the home side was a remarkable 24-8 in his games. While he has seen the home team cash more often than the visitors again this season, the margin is not quite as wide at just 10-6.
As you can see, if you take the time to do some analysis, certain umpires can pave your way to profits! . By looking at both the starting pitchers and the umpires, you can come up with some very strong angles, especially when dealing with totals. When it comes to capping baseball, it's a good idea to use any edge you can get. Knowing the umpires is just one of them.
Hope this reprint from a new book out helps some.
When handicapping baseball, one of the most important yet often overlooked factors is the umpire. Unlike some other sports where the officials have very little effect on the outcome of a game, baseball umpires can be as important as any player on the field.
Umpires can be looked at much like starting pitchers when analyzing a game. Each umpire calls a different gam! e; some are consistently involved in high-scoring contests while others favor low scoring. You wouldn't place a wager on a game without knowing who is pitching; the same should go for umpires.
The main reason behind these umpire differences is the size of their strike zones. Some umpires have smaller strike zones than others, leading to higher-scoring games. After all, a smaller strike zone means more walks, which in turn results in more run scoring opportunities. The smaller strike zone also forces pitchers to throw a greater number of balls up and over the plate, right where the hitters want it. So far this season, we have seen some remarkable numbers relating to a few particular umpires.
When it comes to high-scoring games, Paul Schrieber and Hunter Wendelstedt have led the pack. Both have called a whopping 12 overs compared to just three unders so far this season. In games called by Schrieber, an average of 12.1 runs have been scored. Wendelstedt has seen 10.9 run! s per game. This season does not appear to be an anomaly for Schrieber, as last season the over was 18-12 in his 30 games behind the plate. Wendelstedt, on the other hand, called 22 unders last season compared to just 10 overs.
At the other end of the spectrum, Tim Timmons has been an under machine. The under has cashed in 14 of his 15 games behind home plate this season. In those games, there has been an average of just 6.5 runs scored, almost half of Schrieber's numbers. Perhaps he has adjusted his strike zone this season, as last year the over was a profitable 20-13 when he donned the mask.
Jerry Meals is an example of an umpire that calls a very consistent game. This season, Meals has been involved in 11 unders compared with just six overs. Since 2000, the under has a very profitable 92-55 record in Meals' games. If there is one thing that players like to see out of an umpire, it is consistency. Whether they like their calls or not, as long as the umpire is cons! istent, most players don't have a problem.
Some umpires also appear to have a tendency to call games that favor the home team. The reason behind this is hard to explain without accusing an umpire of being a 'homer'. So far this season, Paul Nauert has seen the home team compile a 13-3 record in his games. He also appeared to be somewhat of a 'homer' umpire last season, as home teams went 15-9 when he called the balls and strikes. Not far behind Nauert this season has been Doug Eddings. In his games, the home side has gone 12-3. The visitors have only managed an average of 2.53 runs per game while Eddings is behind home plate.
Last season, Jim Reynolds was crowned as 'homer' king, as the home side was a remarkable 24-8 in his games. While he has seen the home team cash more often than the visitors again this season, the margin is not quite as wide at just 10-6.
As you can see, if you take the time to do some analysis, certain umpires can pave your way to profits! . By looking at both the starting pitchers and the umpires, you can come up with some very strong angles, especially when dealing with totals. When it comes to capping baseball, it's a good idea to use any edge you can get. Knowing the umpires is just one of them.
Hope this reprint from a new book out helps some.
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