Announcement

**Spark** · 06-06-2005, 09:20 AM

MLB Baseball Trends

Monday, June 6th

National League:

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, 1:05 EST
Brandon Webb (R) vs. Cory Lidle (R)

Webb - Arizona 23-64 as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons
Lidle - Philadelphia 18-8 Over at home this season

Interleague Play:

Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 EST
Sidney Ponson (R) vs. Josh Fogg (R)

Ponson - Baltimore 11-28 in interleague play over the last 3 seasons
Fogg - Pittsburgh 52-52 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

Anaheim Angels at Atlanta Braves, 7:35 EST
John Lackey (R) vs. John Smoltz (R)

Lackey - 15-4 Over on the road when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons
Smoltz - Atlanta 94-48 at home against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons

New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:05 EST
Randy Johnson (L) vs. Doug Davis (L)

Johnson - 10-14 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons
Davis - 18-11 TSR in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 EST
Gustavo Chacin (L) vs. John Koronka (L)

Chacin - Toronto 12-26 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons
Koronka - Cubs 91-70 as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons

Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:10 EST
Tim Wakefield (R) vs. Matt Morris (R)

Wakefield - 5-15 TSR in interleague play since 1997
Morris - St. Louis 24-8 in night games this season

Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, 9:05 EST
Freddy Garcia (R) vs. Joe Kennedy (L)

Garcia - 29-34 TSR as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons
Kennedy - 12-3 Under as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Jeremy Bonderman (R) vs. Derek Lowe (R)

Bonderman - Detroit 44-81 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997
Lowe - 6-2 TSR vs. Detroit with a 2.48 ERA and a 0.92o WHIP

**Spark** · 06-06-2005, 09:23 AM

Hot pitchers
-- Phillies are 7-1 in last eight Lidle starts, winning last four, scoring 29 runs (3-0, 4.00)
-- Lackey is 3-0, 3.21 in his last four starts.
-- Davis is 3-0, 0.38 in his last three starts.
-- Cardinals scored 24 runs in winning last four starts by Morris (4-0, 5.27).
-- White Sox won last three Garcia starts (2-0, 2.70)
-- Bonderman is 4-1, 3.40 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Arizona scored just one run in last two Webb starts (0-1, 4.61).
-- Ponson is 1-2, 7.43 in his last four starts, but Orioles are 4-1 in his road outings. Fogg is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three outings.
-- Smoltz is 1-2, 4.01 in his last five starts.
-- Johnson is 1-2, 5.23 in his last three starts.
-- Chacin is 1-3, 5.00 in his last five starts.
-- Wakefield is 0-4, 8.74 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 2-3, 7.53 in his last six starts.
-- Lowe is 2-3, 6.22 in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Over is 13-3 in last 16 Phils' home games, 4-0 in '05 home starts by Lidle.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Oriole road games, 3-0 in last three Pittsburgh home games.
-- Under is 6-2 last eight Lackey starts, 4-1 in last five Smoltz starts, 4-1 in last five Atlanta home games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 last six Johnson starts, 7-1-1 in last nine Bronx road games, 5-2 in last seven at Miller Park
-- Under is 10-2 last dozen at Wrigley, 3-0-1 last four Chacin starts.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six games at Busch Stadium.
-- Last seven White Sox games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-3 in last fifteen Detroit road games.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won their last six games, scoring 43 runs.
-- Orioles are 16-7 in last 23 road games. Pirates won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Braves are 11-3 in their last fourteen home games, but lost five of last seven on recent road trip.
-- Cubs won nine of last ten games, and are 6-2 in their last eight at Wrigley.
-- Cardinals won nine of last 11 home games, are 7-2 in home series openers.
-- Rockies scored 35 runs in winning last four games.
-- Detroit is 7-4 last 11 road games. Dodgers are 3-1 in their last four games overall.

Cold teams
-- Diamondbacks lost their last five games.
-- Angels lost five of last seven road contests.
-- Bronx lost seven of its last eight games. Milwaukee lost seven of last nine, but they're 6-2 in their last eight games at Miller Park.
-- Toronto lost seven of last nine road games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of last ten road games.
-- White Sox lost five of last seven road games.

**Spark** · 06-06-2005, 09:23 AM

Pistons @ Heat (3-3) -- Health of Wade once again a key factor here; am guessing if he can walk, he'll at least try and play. Detroit shooting is again key stat; in three Miami wins, Pistons shot 38.3-43.9-38.5%- in the three wins, they shot 45.7-48.1-41.9%. Turnovers for Detroit in this series have been 9-15-9-6-15-6; they are 0-2 if they turn it over more than nine times. Miami is 6-1 at home this playoffs. Only one game in this series has been won by less than nine points. Shaq had 24-13 in Game 6, but can Miami win without Wade, even at home?

**Spark** · 06-06-2005, 09:25 AM

12) One thing that is a good idea is to log on Thursday for the Belmont Stakes selections of our handicapping staff. It promises to be an exciting race on Saturday so be prepared and get good information here.

11) Great finish at the Memorial Sunday, as Bryant hit his drive on 18 three inches from the water, took his penalty, since he had no way to really hit the ball, then got up and down from the fairway for his par, to beat Fred Couples by a stroke.

10) Too bad CBS did a horrible job of masking their disappointment that Fred Couples didn't win. Couples and Jim Nantz played college golf together at Houston and are great friends, so hard to fault him, but Bryant got interviewed behind scorer's shed, for Pete's sake, almost like they ashamed to interview him by the green

9) In 6,946 franchise games, Met pitchers have never tossed a no-hitter, but have thrown 28 one-hitters.

8) Mets lost a Friday night gate when they got rained out, which serves them right, since they charged fans a higher price for this series against the pitiful Giants, due to Barry Bonds. But with no Bonds, there was still no refund, so it serves them right.

7) Milwaukee has scored two or less runs in five of last six starts by Victor Santos.

6) The Dodgers' projected starting outfield of Bradley Werth-Repko has played together in five of 55 games.

5) College softball is goofy; the mound is 40 feet from home plate, six feet closer than Little League. Last nite when Michigan had early threat, Tennessee had team meeting (yes, even the outfielders) on the mound, with two on and two out. Not enough good action.

4) College baseball, on other hand, is battle of attrition with pitchers. Miami, O. beat Quinnipiac 35-8, so it is safe to say the Bobcats have a lack of pitching depth.

3) In 1975, 60% of saves recorded came with closing pitcher getting 4+ outs; this season, only 11% of saves have come with the closer getting four or more outs.

2) Minnesota starting pitchers finished sixth inning in 25 of their last 26 games, which takes ton of strain off their bullpen.

1) All five NL East teams are over .500, the first time in 11 years five teams in same division are over .500 this late in the season (AL East, in '94).

**Spark** · 06-06-2005, 03:45 PM

TORONTO (29 - 28) at CHICAGO CUBS (30 - 25) - 8:05 PM
GUSTAVO CHACIN (L) vs. JOHN KORONKA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 12-27 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 20-14 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 119-98 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 60-49 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 117-97 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 274-324 (-76.9 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 24-37 (-22.5 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 109-104 (-30.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GUSTAVO CHACIN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

JOHN KORONKA vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (31 - 25) at ST LOUIS (36 - 20) - 8:10 PM
TIM WAKEFIELD (R) vs. MATT MORRIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 23-29 (-17.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 111-109 (-33.1 Units) against the money line in June games since 1997.
WAKEFIELD is 2-10 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WAKEFIELD is 5-15 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAKEFIELD is 19-24 (-16.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 147-83 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 24-8 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 110-68 (+18.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 16-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ST LOUIS is 71-44 (+18.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 148-85 (+28.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TIM WAKEFIELD vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
WAKEFIELD is 0-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.58 and a WHIP of 1.655.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

MATT MORRIS vs. BOSTON since 1997
MORRIS is 0-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 1.848.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (37 - 19) at COLORADO (19 - 36) - 9:05 PM
FREDDY GARCIA (R) vs. JOE KENNEDY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 34-50 (-28.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 31-41 (-16.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
GARCIA is 36-39 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARCIA is 10-17 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 37-19 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 18-11 (+7.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 31-16 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 53-97 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FREDDY GARCIA vs. COLORADO since 1997
GARCIA is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.875.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JOE KENNEDY vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
KENNEDY is 2-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.816.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-5. (-5.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (26 - 28) at LOS ANGELES (29 - 27) - 10:10 PM
JEREMY BONDERMAN (R) vs. DEREK LOWE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 44-81 (-31.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 64-30 (+26.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 123-99 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 120-95 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 92-70 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 89-71 (+15.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-18 (-12.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JEREMY BONDERMAN vs. LOS ANGELES since 1997
BONDERMAN is 0-1 when starting against LOS ANGELES with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.429.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

DEREK LOWE vs. DETROIT since 1997
LOWE is 5-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 0.920.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.9 units)

Announcement

Trends Monday

Trends Monday

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment