Pitt came through for us as a +128 dog last night, winning a low scoring close game. Today they are nearly even money and I like them again against a struggling Braves ballclub. Pittsburgh has won four of five and sends lefthander Mark Redman to the mound. Redman has pitched well this year (3.14 ERA) and owns a lifetime 2.83 ERA vs. the Braves. Hotlanta's scoring just 3.8 runs per game on the road which spells trouble for them. Kyle Davies gets the call for Atlanta and he has been hot. But, road teams at +125 to -125 with a hot starting pitcher (ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts) and a well rested bullpen are just 11-34 since 1997. Pitt is hitting .285 over their last seven games and we'll ride that momentum here. Two stars on the Pirates.
Coach Brown can dismiss the conspiracy theory that Rasheed Wallace
proclaimed after game #5 implying the officials and league are
demanding a
seven-game series. But Wallace is 2-0 SU and ATS in his
self-proclaimed
guarantees the past two years and it doesn't take a rocket scientist
to see
the inconsistencies with the officiating in this series (just like
Spurs and
Suns). 43 free throws were attempted on Thursday in game #5.
Compare that
to 78 in game #4 and 97 in game #3 (54 for the Heat). An astute
client on
Friday did make this observation about the Pistons and he's dead on
the
money. The quality of the shot selections the Pistons get at home is
light
years ahead of the prayers they attempt on the road. You can call it
being
more aggressive or demanding to find the open player. The bottom
line is
the Pistons were tentative with each possession in Miami often using
the
bulk of the shot clock. That alone makes no sense when you are
trailing by
double digits. There was no urgency even in the 4th quarter. Watch
the
difference with the Pistons tonight. They should be in attack mode
from
start to finish. Detroit has played their best in the playoffs when
trailing in a series. But do yourself a favor.
I guarantee you the number
right now is based on Dwyane Wade not playing or playing severely
hurt. I'd
be shocked if Wade wasn't in the starting lineup and I suspect that
once he
is announced as playing, this number will diminish close to tipoff.
Don't
be surprised if Shaquille O'Neal gets into early foul trouble and you
can be
sure many 1st quarter plays will be in the direction of Rasheed
Wallace,
after his pitiful three shot-attempt (two points) Thursday night.
Something
tells this 'capper the role players who were so instrumental in game
#5 at
home won't show up on the road tonight for Miami. Note that Detroit
is 6-2
SU and ATS at home in the playoffs with all six victories in Motown
by
double digits. 4* Detroit -6.
Comment