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**maverick2112** · 06-03-2005, 01:37 AM

Why would any one take advice like that????

What makes you such a genuis that you can tell someone to bet 2 games a day??

What if I liked 4 or 5 games all the same???

I am sure Ron J. knows by now what he is doing and he sure the hell doesnt need advice unless he asks for it??

In fact I never saw anyone asking for you advice in the first place???

No wonder you lost $10,000 last year......................

**BettorsChat** · 06-03-2005, 01:40 AM

I took the Yankees all 3 games and biggest game 3. KC hadn't swept them at home since 1990 and at Yankee stadium since 94. Stupid wager is all that it was on my part.

**STaylor36** · 06-03-2005, 01:41 AM

+1.5 in baseball is a sucker bet.

If you liked the Cubs why would you lay -186 to get an extra run, when you could just take them as a dog on the moneyline. If you take a team at +1.5 the only way it was a smart move is if they lose by exactly 1 run. If they lose by more than 1 you're a sucker bc you laid all that juice and lost anyways, and if they win straight up you're a sucker for laying juice instead of taking them as a dog.

In this instance the Cubs won straight up by the way.

**frankb03** · 06-03-2005, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by STaylor36

+1.5 in baseball is a sucker bet.

Why is +1.5 a sucker bet? 27% of the home team wins are 1 run victories. I'd never lay more than -150 when taking the +1.5

Aren't you 15 or 16 years old? Please don't give advice you know nothing about.

**ScrantonKid** · 06-03-2005, 01:13 PM

Look, Maverick and STaylor- guys,kids, whomever...
I have been doing this longer than most of you, and to offer my free advice is just a way I am trying to help you out.I don't care if you take my advice, because it is your choice.If you took my advice on the last post, you would have won some money. (I did!)
If I take a team at +1.5, and lay heavy juice, than it is because I have done some research and found that the team gaining the extra .5 is playing good, if not great, baseball.I also had the Cubs, Phillies,Mets, to win outright, but when a team has a questionable bullpen throwing late to preserve a lead, most home team wins are by one run when they bat in their bottom of the ninth.(The game is officially declared over when the winning run crosses the plate, except when a home run is hit, than all runs count.)Therefore, I could have lost my straight bet at low juice, but won my RL bet with the extra .5, but in this case I won both.
I was trying to reach RJ and anyone else who was chasing the pitiful Yankees into their losing doom.Let's face it...the Yanks are in a slump.
I see a guy throwing huge amounts of money on a team that hasn't hit since Boston crushed them at home, and than hop on a plane on a 17 game roadtrip, lose the first two games to a Royals team who is hitting well,with a new coach, who would cut off their right nut to complete a sweep against the Yanks, and some guy is throwing 10G on the Yankees????To me, that is a bad bet! I took the Royals at +1.5 because they were home, playing for keeps, against a bunch of overpaid Yankers who were in a slump.
If you track baseball, than check the boxscores and see how many one-run games are there.I don't know the exact figures, but it is close to 40%, and maybe more for home teams.
If you are calling me a sucker for taking a team at plus 1.5 and than that team wins, I won!!! And I am a sucker when I win?You better look in a mirror before you go slinging s**t.
My advice to you and anybody else who throws money on teams that are slumping is good luck...you will need it.
Look at the boxscores...teams hit in cycles.You just have to know when to jump on them, and likewise, stay away from them.
I could go on and on.I don't have enough time right now to justify my technique, but if you would like to continue this discussion some other time-please reply again to this post.
Remember-advice is free.Not heeding advice is just plain stupid.
PS- I advised RJ to take only two games a day and bet no more than he earns in one day,loosely. Bet five, ten, games a day...I don't give a flying F**K,the point I was trying to make is if at the end of one month if you are loosing- quit playing.Wait till next season, or else try football,basketball, tennis,horses, whatever.You have to have restraint or else these bookies will bleed you dry! Good luck-

**BettorsChat** · 06-03-2005, 01:17 PM

Scranton,

Why don't you post plays more often?

**STaylor36** · 06-03-2005, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by frankb03

Why is +1.5 a sucker bet? 27% of the home team wins are 1 run victories. I'd never lay more than -150 when taking the +1.5

Aren't you 15 or 16 years old? Please don't give advice you know nothing about.

I have a 14 year old brother. How that makes me 15 or 16 I'm not sure. Obviously you have no idea what you are talking about there.

Anyways...scranton said he was taking the Cubs at +1.5 (-186). That is a sucker bet. Let's say a unit for him is 100 ok? He lays 186 to win 100 and gets that extra run to play with. He could have bet 100 to win 130 or so on the moneyline. That is a much smarter play. If the Cubs had lost by 2 or more he would have lost 186 instead of 100. If the Cubs win straight up he wins 100 instead of 130. The ONLY result that would justify him taking the 1.5 runs is the Cubs losing by exactly one run. Incidentally, the Cubs ended up winning that game straight up, a perfect example of my point.

This is not a criticism of scranton as a person or a gambler. It's just me disagreeing with a strategy. I don't really think it should be that big of a deal. Maybe he has been at this longer than me, I just disagree with his strategy there. Everyone has their own way of betting baseball, maybe that works for him. I just don't like the method.

I will agree that getting the 1.5 runs when you are only laying juice in the area of -130 or so is not a terrible play, (Although if the juice is that small on a play where you are getting 1.5 runs that team must be a heavy dog and its a ballsy play) but laying -186 to get 1.5 IS a sucker bet. I will stand by that.

I dont know where you get off talking to me in a condescending way like that Frank. I never started anything with you. Whats your problem?

**ScrantonKid** · 06-03-2005, 01:39 PM

BC- I will when I feel I can contribute winners. Some days I feel I have it down, than lose. I don't want to "throw out" plays that embodies bad advice.
I have been a member here since '02, and I see a couple of good cappers on here, whom I take their advice and sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.
The problem nowadays is that there alot of bad touts surfacing, and alot of the younger players jump on them, only to get themselves in trouble.
I have lost big money in the past, because I followed losers to their fate.I will post when I feel I have some angle on a game(s), but when I see a guy losing big dollars on a team that is playing below their capability at the time, I have to react.The linesmakers poll randomly and than adjust lines to public opinion, and we all thought the Yanks "no way could lose three to KC", and than some gutsy guy lays a bomb on them,posted-than-read by thousands of viewers on this forum...many people jump on it and figure they have found the "lock of the year". These books are raking in millions, if not billions, on us.I offered my advice to anybody who read my post that never bet on a slumping team.I am no genius by any means, but I do research, and I will not lay money on a team in a slump.
I will post again, and in the mean time, keep up the great forum!

**ScrantonKid** · 06-03-2005, 02:22 PM

Staylor-
Cubs game:
Laying -186 to win 100 at plus 1.5 is not a sucker bet.Consider this:
If a team is plus 130 on the ML, that team is a dog at that line.If you study the lines, the higher the line, the more Vegas "feels the public perceives" that team will win/ aka "a favorite."
Therefore,plus 130 (ML/win outright) in Vegas' eyes, has more of a chance of losing than the same team at plus 1.5 at -186.I studied the Cubs...banging the ball, pitching so-so, played tight games this year/ there are many variables.
That said, my bet was to take the extra point, since I felt if they lost, it would come late, by one run.Result:Winner

The Yanks were a -240 at Ml,-116 RL, and KC was +125 (that is a low line for a team that "no way,uh-uh, can't possibly win, etc. etc.) @ plus 1.5. In my eyes,if the Yanks
were such a huge favorite, than the KC line should have been like >+150 RL. The Yanks were in a slump, KC had dumped them, and I felt Pavano would not pitch that well against a team on the road with Torre and Steinbrenner breathing down his neck to produce.Therefore, I took the extra run, since it was my perception that even if the Yanks won, it would be a close game/ aka "a one run game."Result: Winner

Phillies-Entire lineup batting over .300 last seven days...jump on them.Winner
Mets-Best pitcher in baseball on the mound.Winner
I don't need to tell you again that there are many variables.What we have to do to win in this game is sort through all the variables, get off of the public opinion, and study a team's boxscore.Good pitching wins games, good hitting wins games,good coaching wins games.If you find a team that has all the right equations...jump on them.If you are missing any of these equations, stay away.
Good luck-please take my advice.

**STaylor36** · 06-03-2005, 02:28 PM

I agree with your thinking on the Phillies, and I agree with you on the Mets, in fact I had money on the Mets yesterday.

I wish I had been with you on the Royals, I was one of many that got CRUSHED by NYY during that 3 game set.

I still don't agree with you on laying big juice to get the 1.5. I just think it's smarter to take the moneyline. I understand that it's not as safe a play, I just think over the long haul it is the better VALUE. That's just my take.

Regardless, I hope you do well tonight. In fact, I hope the next time you take a team at +1.5 they lose by 1 and you look like a genius.

Good luck.

**ScrantonKid** · 06-03-2005, 02:32 PM

Peace,my brother. I am here to help, not argue. The bottom line is make sure yours is more than the bookies.

**SustainDan** · 06-03-2005, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by STaylor36

I have a 14 year old brother. How that makes me 15 or 16 I'm not sure. Obviously you have no idea what you are talking about there.

Anyways...scranton said he was taking the Cubs at +1.5 (-186). That is a sucker bet. Let's say a unit for him is 100 ok? He lays 186 to win 100 and gets that extra run to play with. He could have bet 100 to win 130 or so on the moneyline. That is a much smarter play. If the Cubs had lost by 2 or more he would have lost 186 instead of 100. If the Cubs win straight up he wins 100 instead of 130. The ONLY result that would justify him taking the 1.5 runs is the Cubs losing by exactly one run. Incidentally, the Cubs ended up winning that game straight up, a perfect example of my point.

This is not a criticism of scranton as a person or a gambler. It's just me disagreeing with a strategy. I don't really think it should be that big of a deal. Maybe he has been at this longer than me, I just disagree with his strategy there. Everyone has their own way of betting baseball, maybe that works for him. I just don't like the method.

I will agree that getting the 1.5 runs when you are only laying juice in the area of -130 or so is not a terrible play, (Although if the juice is that small on a play where you are getting 1.5 runs that team must be a heavy dog and its a ballsy play) but laying -186 to get 1.5 IS a sucker bet. I will stand by that.

I dont know where you get off talking to me in a condescending way like that Frank. I never started anything with you. Whats your problem?

Id love to see you try to even match up with frank in the stats category he would walk on you like andre the giant.

**frankb03** · 06-03-2005, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by STaylor36

I dont know where you get off talking to me in a condescending way like that Frank. I never started anything with you. Whats your problem?

I don't have a problem with you. I have a problem with your comment that playing a game +1.5 is a sucker bet.

As I stated about 27% of home favorite wins are 1 run victories.

STaylor36, read that again 27% of home favorite wins are 1 run victories. Do you have any statistical fact that it's a sucker bet?

One last point. I don't know how old you are. If my 14 year old younger brother was betting sports I'd beat his ass.

**frankb03** · 06-03-2005, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by STaylor36

I still don't agree with you on laying big juice to get the 1.5. I just think it's smarter to take the moneyline. I understand that it's not as safe a play, I just think over the long haul it is the better VALUE. That's just my take.

If you don't agree with laying big juice getting 1.5 what makes you think its smarter laying -165, -270 and -220 with the Yanks on the road?

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