What are you suppose to look for when handicapping baseball?

[scla99]

This is my first year playing baseball and up to now I have been following some of the great cappers in baseball on this site. I was just wondering what I should look for to handicap baseball? Thanks for any help.

[phantom]

look for the winners!!!

[LSUMONSTER]

Ask Coverboys To Open Up A Class : Baseball Beting 101 For Beginners, Lol

[Homer]

look for the winners!!!

Agree there man. I look for odd looking lines myself. Does good for me.

GL on whatever you try

[scla99]

Thanks Homer and GL2U.

[LSUMONSTER]

Agree there man. I look for odd looking lines myself. Does good for me.

GL on whatever you try

NO, HOMER (DONT BE SO HUMBLE NOW)
YOU SHOULD ALSO BE THE PROFESSOR OF BASEBALL 101 ALSO.

[spreadman]

Look for the yanks and FADE

[Homer]

NO, HOMER (DONT BE SO HUMBLE NOW)
YOU SHOULD ALSO BE THE PROFESSOR OF BASEBALL 101 ALSO.

I will be the first to say I'm no professor.

Just try to hold my own and help others out. That is what it is all about to me. Nothing more nothingless. I would care less about the views of my threads. Just Hope I help others like myself it and like this forum has help me out as well.

Beat the Books Baby

[tech fan]

I am not one of the great cappers here but i will give my input and i am up for the year.


#1 Starting Pitchers is everything

#2 Find a system and stick with it.

MY 2 Are
A. Always bet on a team that has won 3 game in a row or more if they get on a 8-9 game winning streak they are all winners and alot of times they are the underdogs during the streak.

B. Always play on a home team that has lost the 1st 2 games of a 3 game series very unlikely the home team will get swept at home.

These are only my ways of betting systems i am sure there are alot more but the most important thing is the starting Pitching. After that you can figure in the trends to better your team. hope this helps

[scla99]

Thanks for the help. GL2U Tech

[Kaptain]

The main attribute I feel (especially this Year) is the strength of the Bull Pen...Aces go 6-7 innings (Average), seldom will a pitcher complete a game...Aces give up just a few runs, have a 1, 2, or 3 (sometimes greater) lead, only to have the relievers LOSE it for em...This year has been terrible for bull pen closures...They just aren't getting it done...

I agree with the emphasis on pitchers, but not the starters...The Lines are based on the starters, but it's the Bull Pen that will make or break you...IMO...

Also several good pitchers don't get run support...i,e, Houston Astros...

Each to his own, but I will not go against a strong BP ERA, vs a weak BP ERA, regardless of who starts...Team Batting avg., slugging percentage, vs Starter and BP ERA and WHIP is the key...

Take this with a grain-of-salt my man, as I haven't done anything right in the last 2 weeks...I just prefer the strength of the BP...after all, they are designed to save the game...kapt

[RJeremy]

I am not one of the great cappers here but i will give my input and i am up for the year.


#1 Starting Pitchers is everything

#2 Find a system and stick with it.

MY 2 Are
A. Always bet on a team that has won 3 game in a row or more if they get on a 8-9 game winning streak they are all winners and alot of times they are the underdogs during the streak.

B. Always play on a home team that has lost the 1st 2 games of a 3 game series very unlikely the home team will get swept at home.

These are only my ways of betting systems i am sure there are alot more but the most important thing is the starting Pitching. After that you can figure in the trends to better your team. hope this helps

I have to disagree on your #1. Look at yesterday for instance. Most people took Minny yesterday because of Santana. Well he really didn't have anything to do with that win. So many times the starter will come in and pitch 7 GREAT innings, and then the shitty bull pens will come in and blow it. Yesterday again: Texas & St. Louis.

[frankb03]

First, throw out all favorites -150 or more. Cap the rest of the games. With baseball there's no point spread. You only need to pick the winner.

Baseball favorites win approx 57% of the games. In the NBA favorites win over 70%. Picking baseball winners is not easy. Baseball is about streaks. Teams get hot. Teams slump. Even the worst teams get hot. KC has won 4 straight. As Tech Fan stated play hot teams keep playing them until they lose. Fade lousy teams. Keep fading them until they start winning.

Never play 3 or more team parlays. They look enticing with their big payouts but they are sucker bets. Play three .650 teams in a parlay will only win 27.4%. Three very capable cappers, EZ, Wayne and Homer are only hitting 23.4% of their parlays using each top pick.

[BigTicket]

I didnt read what others said...but here are some stats I look at.

1) streaks...love streaks in baseball...I usually won't bet against a streak, especially if I have to lay juice!

2) starting pitching is not everything, that's exactly what vegas wants you to think. However I like to look at the pitchers last 3 starts, and also how they have pitched in this situation (home or away)

3) look at the series history between the teams, because with the amount of games in a season, your sample size is relatively large (compared to other sports) and you should take into account if one team is dominating another (e.g. right now I Think the cubs are 7-0 @ petco last 7)

4) take a look at power rankings. I use OOBG.com and I love it, very helpful. They have power rankings for every game. Or dunkel I suppose. Anyway, point is..if you are enticed to take the red sox @ -160 and the power rating is -110, you better re-check your thinking.

there are other things but I just wanted to share some of the items I look at...don't know if anyone cares! ha. This season has been profitable for me.

[psmitty]

Value !!!!

no other sport offers you better odds or as many games as baseball..

teams like : kc , col , astros, pitt. , brewers and the nats will be plus odds almost everynight and between that group there is probaly about 400 wins and yes alot of losses... the key of course is knowing when to jump on a bad team..just look for teams on bad skids , among the before mentioned teams you'll find 5 or 6 game slides all the time...just like counting cards in vegas(blackjack) eventually the averages are going to work out... the key is obviously picking the right spot to make that play based on a pitching match -up , tired bullpen or a good old hunch...

the run line(-1.5 runs)...we've all had bad beats on the run line , but i do like to pick my spots with the RL...try to stay away from home teams with the RL.... that late one run lead usually holds up and not having that extra at bat in the 9th will kill you with the run line....i like taking a slight dog on the road and taking them on the RL to a +160 or 70 and getting some good value and having 9 full innings or xtra innings to get that 2 run lead is huge...

And finally don't be afraid to bet against a good pitcher....guys like clemmens , johnson , prior , schmidt , schilling and santanna lose their share of games and are always big favs when they do...