Saturday's Horse Race
At 6:10 pm, on Saturday, our Top selection to win the Preakness Stakes is the #2 horse, High Fly, and our Bonus selection is on the #11 horse, High Limit. I recommend that you wager money on each of these 2 horses to Win, Place, and Show.
After Giacomo and his shocking upset in the Derby (though not shocking to us, as Giacomo was our Bonus selection to Win), we find ourselves in the unusual position of having a full-field Preakness stakes that is tougher to handicap than the Derby. Part of the reason for this is that the two likely favorites, Afleet Alex and Giacomo, find themselves with far outside post positions (Alex has the 12 hole while Giacomo has 13). While this is a good thing in the Derby, it is definitely a disadvantage at Pimlico Race Course where being on the far outside can be disasterous heading into the first tight clubhouse turn. Plus, when there is speed INSIDE of the outside positions (as there will be on Saturday), these outside horses can get fanned out very wide on the first turn, and lose a lot of ground. On the other hand, horses with a good position on the INSIDE around the first turn can easily carry speed down the backstretch at Pimlico (either on the lead or stalking just off) and then simply save ground around the second turn and pull away in the stretch. The last two winners (Smarty Jones and Funny Cide) have done pretty much just that.
Another important factor is that there is no true rabbit in the race this time as there was with Spanish Chestnut in the Derby. The horse that was hurt in the Derby the most by this rabbit was High Fly, who has the #2 post position this time and should be able to run to the first turn easily with a tight hold by jockey Jerry Bailey and be on or near the lead. Afleet Alex and Giacomo will have the speedy High Limit inside of them and almost certainly will be COMPROMISED by this, unless their jockeys can fall back behind High Limit and get to the inside without conceding too much ground to the likes of High Fly and others.
High Fly actually had the lead at the mile mark in the Derby and if the fractions up front are soft enough, he should be able to position his horse for a charge down the stretch. The horse has plenty of class when compared to the rest of this field and his poor finish in the Derby will make him probably 5 - 1 or better come post time on Saturday, so High Fly is our official selection. Our bonus selection is the other 'High' horse, High Limit, who switches to jockey Edgar Prado. Prado always seems to do well when he comes back home to Maryland. Prado has been the upset king in the third jewel of the triple crown lately (The Belmont) but look for him to possibly get a piece of this one at what should be a very nice price indeed. Take both High Fly and High Limit to Win, Place, and Show. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
(HOU is 2-17 road, and 0-3 in three Astacio starts this season,
Astacio allowing 13 runs over 16 innings. HOU's 153 runs scored ranks
28th in MLB. TX starter Young has allowed just 2 runs in 19 innings
over last 3 starts. TX's 207 runs scored ranks 6th in MLB.)
Baltimore (Bedard, 4-1, 2.35) -1.5 (+125, 2 UNITS) over Philadelphia
(Padilla, 1-4, 7.52)
(PHL is 1-6 in 7 Padilla starts this season, Padilla allowing 22 runs
over 26 innings, including 20 walks. PHL's 181 runs ranks 18th in
MLB. BAL starter Bedard has allowed just 4 earned runs in 37 innings
over last 5 starts. BAL's 224 runs ranks 2nd in MLB.)
Los Angeles Angels (Lackey, 4-2, 4.40) +115 (2 UNITS) over LA Dodgers
(Penny, 2-2, 4.40)
(LAD starter Penny is 0-2 last 2 starts, allowing 10 runs over 11
innings. Penny is 0-1 life vs. LAA with a 7.71 ERA. LAA is 4-1 in 5
Lackey road starts this season. Lackey is 2-1 life over LAD with a
2.45 ERA.)
Scott Spreitzer - san diego/seattle over
Larry Ness - twins
Marc Lawrence - red soxs
Cincinnati Kid - diamondbacks
David Malinsky Cardinals -1.5 Runs
The Pirates Gold - marlins -1.5 Runs
Sebastian-Atlanta
Computer Boys-Minnesota
Winner Line-Minnesota
Lock Line-Under in San Diego game
OTM-San Diego
Scammer/Loser ****** Demarco-Houston
Jim Feist - red soxs
Special k - twins
Tom Freese - pirates
LT Profits - reds
All Star Sports - giants
H.S.W - tigers
Psychic Sports - arizona
Computer-Picks - tigers
Picks4Less - baltimore
Joe Wiz - cleveland
Locksmith - reds
Assassins Picks - braves +1.5 runs
Sharp Cappers - twins
5 Star Selections - seattle -1.5 runs
these comps hit 62% on friday...
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