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Does anyone have any info or stats on the percentage of NBA teams during this playoff season who not only WON the game but COVERED as well, be it as a favorite or a dog. I do not recall too many games so far in the playoffs where a team covered but did not win. In other words, all you really have to do is pick the winner and not worry about the points. Even the big spreads (8+) have been safe. Thanks in advance.
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An extremely UNTRUE statement.Originally posted by Art Vandelay
Favorites since 1999:
SU 349-159 68.7%
ATS 252-246 50.6%
This season:
SU: 40-19 67.8%
ATS: 33-25-1 56.9% -
Frank, he's not saying to bet all favorites. He's saying, the winner of the game will cover the spread. Obliously, a dog winning the game, ****** the spread. I've heard statistics of 83% of all teams winning the game(football or basketball), cover the spread. According to my records, I have it at 52-7 for the playoffs(88%). Picking the winner of the game isn't quite that easy, but betting the obvious team would have one on the plus side.Comment
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I realize he's not saying bet all favorites. Obviously, a winning dog is a ATS winner.
Since 1999 winning favorites in the playoffs cove r 74.3% of the games.Comment
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The bottom line playoff favorites cover 50.6% of the games. We obviously don't know who's going to win before the game starts.
Small dogs of 4 or less win SU 41.1% and ATS 51%Comment
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You are sadly mistaken if you think winning $$$$ in the NBA is as simple as predicting the game winner. This past NBA season I was close to 60% ATS winners. With many of my games I select the dogs. With most of those dog selections I didn't expect them to win the game SU.Originally posted by Larry29Comment
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FRANK,Originally posted by frankb03
I THINK HE DID NOT MEAN THAT. HE WAS ASKING ABOUT THE PLAYOFF ONLY. HE GOT A GOOD POINT THERE SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE PLAYOFF.
1) YESTERDAY, SEATTLE WON SU, DID NOT NEED THE 7 PTS SPREAD.
2)THE DALLAS-PHOENIX SERIES (2-2): EACH DOG TEAM WON SU (DID NOT NEED THE PTS)
SO YOU WOULD MAKE MORE MONEY BETTING THE MONEY LINE WHEN PICKING THE UNDER DOG THIS YEAR BECAUSE YOU DONT NEED THE POINTS TO COVER THE SPREAD.
I THINK THIS IS WHAT HE MEANT.Comment
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I understand what he meant. The stats I posted above are playoffs stats only. IMO following one season's playoff trends is not profitable. We are only a short run back to 50%
This playoff season the SU winner has winner has covered 89.7% of the games. Playoff favorites have been on a roll. This season Favorites have covered 56.9%. The past two playoff seasons the favorite has covered 56.8%. Both very high percentages.
An interesting note. Since 1999 ROUND 3 Playoff favorites are a very lousy 31.8% ATS and a mediocre 55% SUComment
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An interesting note. Since 1999 ROUND 3 Playoff favorites are a very lousy 31.8% ATS and a mediocre 55% SU[/QUOTE]
A very good note to remember when handicapping ROUND 3.
Thanks for sharing, Frank.Comment
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Guys, just got back in - thanks for the feedback. My point was that the "points" have not come into play much in the current postseason - the 52-7 (89%) stat backs that up. In other words, covering but not actually winning the game has been rare, even with the bigger spreads. (We'll see what happens with Indy and Seattle tomorrow) So far if you had a strong feeling on the winner of a particular game, lay with confidence or take the moneyline. We'll see if this continues. By the way Frank, thanks for the Round 3 stat. Definitely an eye-opener. Once the mediocre teams get weeded out in Rounds 1 and 2, the points do become more of a factor.Comment
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