Miami/Wash Game 3 "Pre-game Wedge"

[Auz]

Just to let most folks know, I'm not generally a fan of the hedge, wedge, middle, etc.

Here's the scenario tomorrow. Miami has outplayed Washington in the 1st two games and in typical Game 3 fashion, the betting public will be all over Miami -4.5 Washington will definitely be giving their best effort here coming back home where they do play significantly better than on the road, especially in Miami (where most road teams lose anyways). Personally, I think this will be a hard line to bet for either sides. Miami is just on a roll and my opinion is that they will win. On the other hand, for betting purposes, the Washington +4.5 dog line tends to win for Game 3 dogs where the public is pounding the chalk after they win the 1st two games. There is little doubt in my mind that Game 3 will be the biggest challenge for Miami thus far.

With that said, here's what I'm proposing:

Miami ML -200
Wash +4.5 +101

This sounds really odd but I basically want a prop to say that Miami will win but not cover the 4.5. I get the sense that this game might come down to whether a 'Vince Carter-esque' shot will determine the ATS winner.

Here's my math with it:
1 unit on Wash +4.5
1.34 unit on Miami ML

Assuming dime units, I've got 1340 to win 670 for Miami ML and 1000 to win 1010 for Wash +4.5.

If you equate the two bets, you have one bet that is 330 to win 1680. If Miami wins SU and ATS, you win 670 and lose 1000 (hence, losing 330). If Wash wins SU, you win 1010 and lose 1340 (hence, losing 330 again). If Miami wins but doesn't cover, you win both bets.

For number guys out there, let me know if this is worth it. Personally, I'm really considering it and I think it's worth a shot.

[Auz]

Just to add a side note, if you want to play it a little more conservative,

You can take Miami ML -200 and Wash +6.5 -140 after you buy a couple of points.
It ends up being about a +300 payout.

[LSUMONSTER]

Good Point Auz, I Think That Makes Sense

[dirtymike]

Sounds like a waste of money to me. I think your better off making a 2nd half wajor if you want to hedge your bet.

[Kaptain]

GL Auz...

dirtymike---a little tact in his thread would be nice...the Kapt

[therealdeal]

just take the over since wizards play no D

[Auz]

Thanks for the input.

Just to make some points here,
I realize that this is an 'unlikely' scenario in many's opinion but the question I pose is whether this occurrence has a likelihood of greater than 16.5%. This bet is an underdog bet of over +500 and dog bets of this magnitude are generally tough.

In essence, there are no bets that are 'a waste of money'. It's essentially a question of how likely something is going to occur vs. the betting line posted. I just 'personally' see some value here because of my prediction which may differ than other people's prediction for the game.

2nd Half hedges are actually quite different in flavour. The area that is hedged is dependent so much on the halftime score. Say I take Wash +4.5 here and Miami is up 8 pts at the half. It might be pick'em 2nd half, so I wouldn't be able to hedge any bet here. I would have a probability of losing a full unit straight up (whether it's a nickel, dime, etc.)

Re: the total, I would lean towards the over too, realdeal.

Good luck.

[dirtymike]

Hoping for Miami to win but not cover is the only way you can win. Doesn't make sense to me. If you feel the game is going to be that close don't even bet it. GL with whatever you decide.

[scla99]

Can you tell me if the last game went over? I think the public will be pounding the over so I feel that it could be an under play.

[TMAC951]

Call me crazy,idiot, fucking retard or whatever you want BUT something is telling me Wizs wins this game outright tonight....

[Auz]

scla:
last game final score miami 108 wash 102, closing line on the total was 205.5. To answer your question, the last game did go over.

The public is siding with the over, but not overwhelmingly. The public plays of the day are Miami- and San Anton-. I would definitely side with both dogs tonight and would agree with TMAC that the Wiz have a decent chance at pulling one out.

[scla99]

Auz,

I agree in that I think Washington will have a chance but the only bad thing about the middle play is that for you to win you need Miami to win but not cover. Especially since this is the series for Washignton. If they lose then its over but if they can oull it out who knows but they have a chance so they will play hard. Who believed that Ind, down 10 was going to come back and win against Det at Detroit.

[ICBomber]

Hey TMAC idiots unite, I like Wash a lot tonight and will be taking them on the money line.

[TMAC951]

Hey TMAC idiots unite, I like Wash a lot tonight and will be taking them on the money line.

lol welcome aboard idiot.... Im with ya on that same play.. im only taking it small but i just got a feeling that this will happen tonight... This is the same feeling that i had with Houston and Boston in both their game 6's in the 1st round... WHICH WAS BOTH OUTRIGHT WINNERS!!!!

[ICBomber]

sometimes a gut feeling is better than hours of trying to handicap a game. And if that gut feeling happens to pay very well on the money line a la syracuse v. kansas, or Ohio state v. Miami, well then it is well worth a dollar or two. For entertainment purposes only of course.