An Horse experts out there?

[worm]

Need some good advice today on the race




thanks and good luck

[chinto]

Hey Worm,

I play the ponies quite a bit. I'll give you my advice for today.
I play the derby like the lottery. First these horses have not run this distance before, second there are 20 or so horses running, that's more than any have ever run against. Third I think the favorite has won twice in the last 20 or so years. Anything can happen out of the gate. My point is I don't think the derby is cappable. I play it for the party and the big hit. I have won a lot of money on the derby, but it has all been by pure luck. What I do is narrow the field to about 10 horses than I take a few hundred bucks and play exotic bets. I'll key 1 or 2 favorites over some dogs in an exacta and then reverse it. I'll also take about 3 tris boxed using 5 horses or key one or 2 over a few and then do the same in reverse (this is a little cheaper on the ticket price. Doing this you may lose a couple of hundred but if you have a 10 dollar boxed tri on the 12,3,9 or the 11,20,9 and it comes in you are going to win some nice cash. Anyway I'm going to mix up about 500 dollars of exotics using the 20, 4, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 (original posts) again if you key a horse over a few and then take a few over 1 and do something similiar with the tris it's much cheaper than boxing. Heavily consider horse 3 Sun king and 11 High fly in your exotics.


Good Luck

Peter

[worm]

Hey Worm,

I play the ponies quite a bit. I'll give you my advice for today.
I play the derby like the lottery. First these horses have not run this distance before, second there are 20 or so horses running, that's more than any have ever run against. Third I think the favorite has won twice in the last 20 or so years. Anything can happen out of the gate. My point is I don't think the derby is cappable. I play it for the party and the big hit. I have won a lot of money on the derby, but it has all been by pure luck. What I do is narrow the field to about 10 horses than I take a few hundred bucks and play exotic bets. I'll key 1 or 2 favorites over some dogs in an exacta and then reverse it. I'll also take about 3 tris boxed using 5 horses or key one or 2 over a few and then do the same in reverse (this is a little cheaper on the ticket price. Doing this you may lose a couple of hundred but if you have a 10 dollar boxed tri on the 12,3,9 or the 11,20,9 and it comes in you are going to win some nice cash. Anyway I'm going to mix up about 500 dollars of exotics using the 20, 4, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 (original posts) again if you key a horse over a few and then take a few over 1 and do something similiar with the tris it's much cheaper than boxing. Heavily consider horse 3 Sun king and 11 High fly in your exotics.


Good Luck

Peter

thanks bro

[aces r wild]

Hey Worm,

I play the ponies quite a bit. I'll give you my advice for today.
I play the derby like the lottery. First these horses have not run this distance before, second there are 20 or so horses running, that's more than any have ever run against. Third I think the favorite has won twice in the last 20 or so years. Anything can happen out of the gate. My point is I don't think the derby is cappable. I play it for the party and the big hit. I have won a lot of money on the derby, but it has all been by pure luck. What I do is narrow the field to about 10 horses than I take a few hundred bucks and play exotic bets. I'll key 1 or 2 favorites over some dogs in an exacta and then reverse it. I'll also take about 3 tris boxed using 5 horses or key one or 2 over a few and then do the same in reverse (this is a little cheaper on the ticket price. Doing this you may lose a couple of hundred but if you have a 10 dollar boxed tri on the 12,3,9 or the 11,20,9 and it comes in you are going to win some nice cash. Anyway I'm going to mix up about 500 dollars of exotics using the 20, 4, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 (original posts) again if you key a horse over a few and then take a few over 1 and do something similiar with the tris it's much cheaper than boxing. Heavily consider horse 3 Sun king and 11 High fly in your exotics.


Good Luck

Peter

I do the exact samething...... i play the ponies frequently as well.
I agree with chinto 100%, i would also throw in the #4 Noble Causeway and maybe even the #14 Wilko may sneak in the 4 position

[Deano]

I bet $1900 to win $1000 on Bellamy Road under 3 1/2 finishing position.

dEaNo

[Mike1]

I like Bandini to win/place

[TMAC951]

I like either Bandini or Afleet Alex to win the derby today

[worm]

thanks everyone

I got a good idea going on


good luck to all today

[rxpert]

derby

i posted this in another thread...my cousin sent this to me. he's a horseplayer...good analysis fwiw

The Derby is one of the toughest races of the year to handicap and caution is the key word in wagering on it. This is a 20 horse race – while most races in the US have 12 or fewer starters – and these athletes will be asked to do something they have never done before – run a mile and a quarter. It would be like extending the NCAA final to three 20-minute periods or making the rim 11 feet high for that one game. Even if that were the case, you would still have to risk 11 to win 10. The nice thing about the Derby is that if you are right, you could be handsomely rewarded. Here are the horses we view as contenders:

Afleet Alex – Bounced back from lung infection to impressively take the Arkansas Derby. Questions on his breeding to go this distance but could certainly contend for top spot. Neither trainer nor jockey have Derby experience but remember Smarty Jones…

High Fly – One of five Zito entries. Has Bailey aboard and the horse likes to win. Questions on breeding for distance but if he can get the distance…

Bellamy Road – Looks clearly the best coming into the race off two impressive wins including a 17 ½ length win in the Wood Memorial. Could be a possible “bounce” candidate but works seem to indicate that he is still fit. Worries about getting used up in early speed duel but he did break his maiden by coming from off the pace. The one to beat but price may be an issue.

Bandini – Running style suits the Derby and bred to appreciate the distance. Beat the best field of the Derby preps in Bluegrass stakes win. Threat to win if he continues to improve.

Sun King – Zito trained Charismatic colt was Derby favorite for couple of weeks in late winter. Ran well as a two year old and if you are willing to toss out his Blue Grass dud he merits a long shot look.

Noble Causeway – Another Zito trainee who has improved every race. Has a good running style if a speed duel develops and is a candidate to win it all.

Spanish Chestnut – Common belief is that he is entered as the rabbit in the race to soften the field for his stablemate Bandini by insuring a solid early pace. But he is bred for the distance and if a scenario develops where the other jockeys let him run free early… Might be worth a $2 saver bet if he is at 50-1 or better. You should at least get to see your horse in the lead the first time the field passes the grandstand.

Sort It Out – Doesn’t look like he should win but can’t exclude any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert from consideration.

Going Wild -- With Consolidator’s scratch because of a career-ending injury, he’s now the Coach’s only Derby starter. He was impressive winning the Sham Stakes in early February and ran well in the Santa Catalina but was humiliated by Bellamy Road in the Wood and thrashed in the Lexington by Flower Alley and others. Always hate to dismiss horse trained by proven Derby winner like Lukas who has won with bombs in the past. He’ll be on the lead and could get brave. If you are inclined, maybe a win saver at 40-1 or better.

Greely’s Galaxy – Could be the wise-guy horse but no Derby winner was unraced as a two year old since Apollo in 1882. Beat a suspect field in the Illinois Derby but earned a good Beyer figure for the race.

[worm]

i posted this in another thread...my cousin sent this to me. he's a horseplayer...good analysis fwiw

The Derby is one of the toughest races of the year to handicap and caution is the key word in wagering on it. This is a 20 horse race – while most races in the US have 12 or fewer starters – and these athletes will be asked to do something they have never done before – run a mile and a quarter. It would be like extending the NCAA final to three 20-minute periods or making the rim 11 feet high for that one game. Even if that were the case, you would still have to risk 11 to win 10. The nice thing about the Derby is that if you are right, you could be handsomely rewarded. Here are the horses we view as contenders:

Afleet Alex – Bounced back from lung infection to impressively take the Arkansas Derby. Questions on his breeding to go this distance but could certainly contend for top spot. Neither trainer nor jockey have Derby experience but remember Smarty Jones…

High Fly – One of five Zito entries. Has Bailey aboard and the horse likes to win. Questions on breeding for distance but if he can get the distance…

Bellamy Road – Looks clearly the best coming into the race off two impressive wins including a 17 ½ length win in the Wood Memorial. Could be a possible “bounce” candidate but works seem to indicate that he is still fit. Worries about getting used up in early speed duel but he did break his maiden by coming from off the pace. The one to beat but price may be an issue.

Bandini – Running style suits the Derby and bred to appreciate the distance. Beat the best field of the Derby preps in Bluegrass stakes win. Threat to win if he continues to improve.

Sun King – Zito trained Charismatic colt was Derby favorite for couple of weeks in late winter. Ran well as a two year old and if you are willing to toss out his Blue Grass dud he merits a long shot look.

Noble Causeway – Another Zito trainee who has improved every race. Has a good running style if a speed duel develops and is a candidate to win it all.

Spanish Chestnut – Common belief is that he is entered as the rabbit in the race to soften the field for his stablemate Bandini by insuring a solid early pace. But he is bred for the distance and if a scenario develops where the other jockeys let him run free early… Might be worth a $2 saver bet if he is at 50-1 or better. You should at least get to see your horse in the lead the first time the field passes the grandstand.

Sort It Out – Doesn’t look like he should win but can’t exclude any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert from consideration.

Going Wild -- With Consolidator’s scratch because of a career-ending injury, he’s now the Coach’s only Derby starter. He was impressive winning the Sham Stakes in early February and ran well in the Santa Catalina but was humiliated by Bellamy Road in the Wood and thrashed in the Lexington by Flower Alley and others. Always hate to dismiss horse trained by proven Derby winner like Lukas who has won with bombs in the past. He’ll be on the lead and could get brave. If you are inclined, maybe a win saver at 40-1 or better.

Greely’s Galaxy – Could be the wise-guy horse but no Derby winner was unraced as a two year old since Apollo in 1882. Beat a suspect field in the Illinois Derby but earned a good Beyer figure for the race.

thanks rxpert