Trends Friday

[Spark]

Friday, May 6th

Eastern Conference Playoffs
First Round
Washington leads 3-2
Chicago at Washington, 8:05 EST


Chicago:
29-12 ATS after playing a home game
22-9 ATS after playing a game as favorite

Washington:
8-22 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better since 1996
16-33 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons

[Spark]

Friday, 5/6/2005


CHICAGO (49 - 38) at WASHINGTON (48 - 39) - 5/6/2005, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 46-74 ATS (-35.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 8-8 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 11-5 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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INDIANA (47 - 41) at BOSTON (48 - 40) - 5/7/2005, 6:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) on Saturday games this season.
INDIANA is 175-124 ATS (+38.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 15-12 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 16-11 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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HOUSTON (54 - 34) at DALLAS (61 - 27) - 5/7/2005, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 9-8 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 12-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SEATTLE (56 - 31) at SAN ANTONIO (63 - 24) - 5/8/2005, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-5 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-3 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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Top Playoff Trends
Hottest Teams
-DALLAS is on a run of 17-2 SU & 11-8 ATS in its L19 games
-HOUSTON won its last seven games of the season, both SU & ATS
-DENVER closed the regular season on a 22-4 SU & 19-7 ATS run
-NEW JERSEY rallied to secure the East’s 8th seed with a 15-4 SU & ATS run
-DETROIT won 10 of its 11 games in April and was 7-4 ATS during that stretch
-CHICAGO was 15-4 SU & 14-3-2 ATS in its L19 games

Coldest Teams
-MEMPHIS closed the regular season by winning just once in its L6 games, both SU & ATS
-SEATTLE comes into the playoffs having gone just 4-10 SU & ATS in its L14 games
-SACRAMENTO was 6-5 SU in March, but just 2-8-1 ATS
-Top seeded MIAMI closed the regular season by going just 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS
-WASHINGTON stumbles into the playoffs on a 4-7 SU & 2-9 ATS stretch

Best Teams in Recent Playoff Action
-DETROIT was 16-7 SU & 16-6-1 ATS in the playoffs during its championship run last season
-NEW JERSEY with Jason Kidd is 32-19 SU & 27-19-5 ATS in the playoffs
-SACRAMENTO is .500 or better ATS in every playoff season since ’99, combined 33-24-1 ATS
-SAN ANTONIO is 26-18 SU & ATS in the playoffs over the last three years
-WASHINGTON, though swept in its last playoff appearance in ’97, was 3-0 ATS

Worst Teams in Recent Playoff Action
-BOSTON was swept LY by Indiana in the first round & failed to cover any of the four games.
-HOUSTON is 4-10 SU & 6-8 ATS in its L3 playoff appearances
-MEMPHIS was 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its only franchise playoff appearance a year ago
-MIAMI is on a 6-10 SU & 5-10-1 ATS run in playoff games

Miscellaneous Playoff Trends
The Good
-SAN ANTONIO is 12-6 SU ATS in the 1st game of a playoff series since '97
-SAN ANTONIO is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS when tied in a playoff series since '97
-NEW JERSEY is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series over the L2 years
-NEW JERSEY is 6-2 SU & ATS when attempting to close out a playoff series since '97
-DALLAS is 4-1 SU & ATS when tied in a playoff series over the L2 years
-CHICAGO is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS when tied in a playoff series since '97
-DETROIT is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS when attempting to close out a playoff series since '97
-HOUSTON is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the 3rd game of a playoff series since '97
-DETROIT is 4-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in the 1st game of a playoff series over the L2 years
-SACRAMENTO is 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in the 4th game of a playoff series since '97
-SACRAMENTO is 5-0 SU & ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the L2 years


The Bad
-BOSTON is 0-6 SU & ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the L2 years
-DALLAS is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS when leading in a playoff series over the L2 years
-CHICAGO is 6-0 SU but 1-5 ATS in the first round of the playoffs since '97
-SACRAMENTO is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series over the L2 years
-DETROIT is 3-8 SU ATS in the 4th game of a playoff series since '97
-HOUSTON is 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS when trailing in a playoff series since '97
-SEATTLE is 4-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since '97
-MIAMI is 4-10 SU & ATS when leading in a playoff series since '97
-DETROIT is 9-11 SU & 7-12 ATS when leading in a playoff series since '97
-PHILADELPHIA is 8-15 SU & 9-14 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since '97

[Spark]

Friday, May 6th

National League:

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, 3:20 EST
Cory Lidle (R) vs. Mark Prior (R)

Lidle - 7-0 TSR as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 1997
Prior - 1-3 TSR vs. Philadelphia with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.458 WHIP

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 EST
Brad Penny (R) vs. Paul Wilson (R)

Penny - 11-1 Under in road games over the last 2 seasons
Wilson - 8-1 TSR after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons

Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, 7:35 EST
Roy Oswalt (R) vs. John Smoltz (R)

Oswalt - 27-15 Over on grass over the last 2 seasons
Smoltz - 5-4 TSR vs. Houston with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP

Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins, 7:35 EST
Joe Kennedy (L) vs. Dontrelle Willis (L)

Kennedy - 0-4 TSR vs. Florida with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.171 WHIP
Willis - 19-5 TSR after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons


New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:05 EST
Victor Zambrano (R) vs. Doug Davis (L)

Zambrano - Mets 62-84 when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons
Davis - Milwaukee 7-0 after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:10 EST
Darrell May (L) vs. Jeff Suppan (R)

May - San Diego 136-94 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997
Suppan - 37-18 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 EST
Oliver Perez (L) vs. Javier Vazquez (R)

Perez - Pittsburgh 39-23 Under when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons
Vazquez - 6-14 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons

Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 EST
Tomo Ohka (R) vs. Noah Lowry (L)

Ohka - Washington 39-15 Under after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons
Lowry - San Fransisco 4-12 at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons


American League:

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, 7:05 EST
Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Matt Clement (R)

Moyer - 13-1 Over as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons
Clement - 0-2 TSR vs. Seattle with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.308 WHIP

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, 7:05 EST
Barry Zito (L) vs. Carl Pavano (R)

Zito - 9-18 TSR after a loss over the last 2 seasons
Pavano - 24-10 Under in home games over the last 3 seasons

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:05 EST
Orlando Hernandez (R) vs. David Bush (R)

Hernandez - 5-13 TSR in May games since 1997
Bush - 15-5 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons

Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 7:15 EST
Johan Santana (L) vs. Dewon Brazelton (R)

Santana - 29-7 TSR after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997
Brazelton - 13-3 Under on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, 7:35 EST
Denny Bautista (R) vs. Sidney Ponson (R)

Bautista - Kansas City 40-92 against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons
Ponson - 21-11 TSR in May games since 1997

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers, 8:05 EST
Cliff Lee (L) vs. Pedro Astacio (R)

Lee - Cleveland 16-5 Under on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons
Astacio - Texas 42-18 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons

Detroit Tigers at Anaheim Angels, 10:05 EST
Wilfredo Ledezma (L) vs. Kelvim Escobar (R)

Ledezma - n/a
Escobar - 9-1 Under after a win over the last 2 seasons

[Spark]

Friday, 5/6/2005


CHI WHITE SOX (21 - 7) at TORONTO (16 - 13) - 7:05 PM
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ (R) vs. DAVID BUSH (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HERNANDEZ is 5-13 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 15-5 (+9.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 39-23 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 21-7 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 13-4 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 16-4 (+11.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 16-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



ORLANDO HERNANDEZ vs. TORONTO since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 5-9 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.40 and a WHIP of 1.415.
His team's record is 7-9 (-8.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-5. (+5.8 units)



DAVID BUSH vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.




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MINNESOTA (16 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (11 - 18) - 7:15 PM
JOHAN SANTANA (L) vs. DEWON BRAZELTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 50-46 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 41-40 (+14.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 50-46 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 54-50 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 109-84 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 78-52 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 64-45 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
SANTANA is 57-23 (+29.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 20-2 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 32-8 (+23.7 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



JOHAN SANTANA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
SANTANA is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 0.954.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)



DEWON BRAZELTON vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
BRAZELTON is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.184.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)




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KANSAS CITY (7 - 21) at BALTIMORE (18 - 9) - 7:35 PM
DENNY BAUTISTA (R) vs. SIDNEY PONSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 26-69 (-30.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 65-125 (-36.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-109 (-26.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 40-92 (-39.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 18-9 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 68-61 (+14.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 53-30 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PONSON is 21-11 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 25-36 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



DENNY BAUTISTA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.



SIDNEY PONSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
PONSON is 8-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.423.
His team's record is 8-6 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-8. (-2.7 units)




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CLEVELAND (11 - 16) at TEXAS (15 - 14) - 8:05 PM
CLIFTON LEE (L) vs. PEDRO ASTACIO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 55-48 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 51-31 (+17.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 104-87 (+27.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 57-39 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 100-80 (+30.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 70-58 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 67-58 (+12.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



CLIFTON LEE vs. TEXAS since 1997
LEE is 1-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 8.10 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)



PEDRO ASTACIO vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.




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DETROIT (12 - 15) at ANAHEIM (17 - 11) - 10:05 PM
WILFREDO LEDEZMA (L) vs. KELVIM ESCOBAR (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 4-12 (-15.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
ESCOBAR is 13-19 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ESCOBAR is 10-16 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.



WILFREDO LEDEZMA vs. ANAHEIM since 1997
LEDEZMA is 0-1 when starting against ANAHEIM with an ERA of 12.47 and a WHIP of 1.617.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)



KELVIM ESCOBAR vs. DETROIT since 1997
ESCOBAR is 5-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.025.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.7 units)

[Spark]

Hot pitchers
-- Prior is 3-1, 4.13 in four starts this season. Lidle is
2-0, 6.35 in his last two starts.
-- Dodgers are 2-0 in Penny starts (1-0, 3.27)
-- Willis 5-0, 1.54 this season, 3-0, 0.75 at home.
-- Oswalt is 4-1, 2.57 in his last five starts. Smoltz has a 1.83 RA in his last five starts, Braves winning last three.
-- Suppan is 2-2, 2.36 in his last four starts.
-- Vazquez is 3-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.

-- Pavano is 2-0, 4.95 in his last three starts, as Bronx scored 29 runs in those three games.
-- Moyer is 4-0, 3.79 in his six starts.
-- White Sox won last three El Duque starts (2-0, 2.84)
-- Santana is 3-0, 3.32 on road; Twins are 5-1 in his starts this season.
-- Bautista is 2-0, 1.29 on road, 1-0, 2.07 in his last 2 starts overall. Orioles won last three Ponson starts (2-0 3.86; they scored 41 runs in his five starts).
-- Lee is 2-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Escobar has 2.77 RA in two starts this season.


Cold pitchers
-- Reds are 1-4 in Wilson's last five starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-3, 10.26 on foreign soil.
-- Zambrano is 1-3, 6.84 in his five '05 starts. Davis is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- May is 25-39, 4.98 in 88 career starts, mostly with the Royals; this is his first start for the Padres.
-- Perez is 1-3, 7.11 in six starts; 0-1, 9.00 on road.
-- Ohka is 2-3, 4.67 this year, 1-2, 6.00 on the road. Lowry is 0-2, 5.74 in his last three starts.

-- Zito is 0-2, 11.15 in his three road starts.
-- Clement has an 8.44 RA in his last two starts.
-- Toronto is 0-5 in Bush starts (0-3, 4.97)
-- Brazelton is 1-5, 6.68 in his six starts this season.
-- Astacio is 0-2, 9.80 in his last two starts.
-- Tigers lost last three Ledezma starts (0-2, 9.00)


Totals
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Lidle starts.
-- Wilson's last four starts went over the total.
-- Kennedy's last three starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Smoltz starts.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 4-0 in last four Suppan starts.
-- Vazquez' last four starts all stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0 in last four Ohka starts.

-- Pavano's last three starts went over the total.
-- Four of Moyer's last five starts went over the total.
-- Last three Hernandez starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Santana starts, 3-0 in home starts by Brazelton.
-- Over is 3-1 in last four Bautista starts, 4-1 in last 5 Ponson starts.
-- Three of Lee's last four starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1 in Ledezma's last four starts.

Hot teams
-- Marlins won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Braves won seven of their last nine home games.
-- Brewers scored 41 runs in winning last seven games.
-- Cardinals are 6-2 in their last eight home games.
-- Arizona won nine of last eleven home games. Pirates won their last three games, all on road.
-- Nationals won three of last four road games.

-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- White Sox are 9-1 in series openers, 5-1 on road. Toronto won seven of its last nine games.
-- Tampa Bay won six of last eight home games.
-- Orioles won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Texas scored 25 runs in winning its last three games.
-- Angels allowed five runs in winning last four games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs allowed 30 runs in losing their last five games. Phillies lost nine of their last dozen road games.
-- Reds allowed 52 runs in losing their last seven games Dodgers lost three of last four road games.
-- Colorado is 1-13 on road, losing last seven in row.
-- Houston is 1-11 on road, losing last eight in row.
-- Mets are 0-5 in road series openers.
-- Padres lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Giants scored two runs each in losing their last two games; they lost last three home series openers.

-- Seattle scored 11 runs in losing its last five games.
-- Bronx is 9-18 in its last 27 games (1-7-1 in last nine series). A's lost their last three games in row.
-- Twins lost three of their last four games.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Indians lost six of their last nine games.
-- Tigers lost five of their last six games.

[Spark]

Bulls @ Wizards (3-2)-- Chicago rallied from 10 points down in last minute in Game 5, but Arenas hit huge shot, and now Washington is on verge of first series win since '82 (2-0 over Nets). Wiz won last three series games, won the two games at this site by 18,7 points. Favorite is 4-1 vs spread in series, with all five games going over. Bulls shot 39.3%, 33.7% in two games in Washington.