Dr. Bob - Pitt @ Miami writeup

[capper]

MIAMI FLA (-20.0) 31 Pittsburgh 14 04:35 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-21

Pittsburgh is unbeaten in Big East play while Miami tries to remain unbeaten for the season. The Hurricanes should be able to accomplish that feat today against a solid Panthers squad that may not have a good enough rush attack to fully exploit Miami’s sub-par run defense. Pitt has become a pretty good running team now that Alabama transfer Brandon Miree is getting the majority of the carries (161 yards at 7.0 ypr against Virginia Tech). The Panthers have averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per rushing play in their last 4 games against teams that combine to allow just 4.0 yprp on defense, so it is certainly possible that they’ll mount a few drives on the ground against a Miami defensive front that has given up 4.9 yprp to teams that average 4.6 yprp on offense. Panthers’ quarterback Rod Rutherford has turned in a nice season after a difficult start (2.9 yards per pass play in his first two games) and is now averaging a solid 6.3 yppp for the season (against teams that allow 5.9 yppp). However, Rutherford has built up his stats by taking full advantage of bad defensive teams, averaging 10.4 yppp in a 4 game mid-season stint against UAB, Rutgers, Toledo and Syracuse, who combine to allow 6.7 yppp on defense for the season. In games against good defensive teams (Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Temple) Rutherford managed an average of just 4.6 yppp, which is well below what those teams normally allow through the air (5.2 yppp). Miami has the best pass defense in the nation again this season and they’ve yielded just 3.1 yppp to a schedule of teams that average 5.5 yppp on offense. So, Pittsburgh will need to be able to run the football in this game to have any success offensively. Miami’s well-balanced and efficient offense (6.5 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 yppl) will be challenged by a very good Pitt defense that has given up just 4.1 yppl to teams that average 5.0 yppl on offense. Pitt defends the run and the pass very well, which is important in defending a Hurricanes offense that will usually exploit whatever weakness the opposing defense has. Miami ran against a Florida team that defends the pass well and they threw with success against Temple and West Virginia defensive units that defend the run well. Miami has only faced one team that is better than average against the run and the pass, Tennessee, and they were slowed a bit (5.7 yppl) by the Vols in that game. Pittsburgh is better defensively than Tennessee and could really contain Miami with a good effort. Miami has averaged just 3.3 yards per rushing play in two games against teams that allow less than 4.0 yprp for the season on defense (Temple and West Virginia) and they’ve thrown for a modest 6.3 yppp in games against the two best pass defenses they’ve faced (Florida and Tennessee, who combine to allow 4.9 yppp for the season). Pitt has allowed just 3.9 yprp and 4.4 yppp, so they are very capable of keeping the Hurricanes from running away with this game. Pittsburgh qualifies in a strong 33-8 late season revenge underdog angle and they are 21-13 ATS when getting points. However, Miami has risen to the occasion at home against good teams, going 11-2 ATS when hosting a winning team in recent years and posting a 15-3 ATS mark at home when not laying more than 35 points (11-1 ATS in their last 12). My math model favors Miami by 16 ½ points in this game, which sounds about right to me.

[Jammer]

i see this game getting ugly ....maybe close for a while,but that line is right on!!