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Bradley Owen
Play on or against Starters in MLB
Wednesday April 18th, 2005
It is much said that sports books base their baseball money lines on who is on the mound for each ball club. That may be true to a certain extent and in my view it forms the basis (starting point) for the line marker. But I am also sure that books incorporate into their lines a number of other variants such as; how sides are batting over their last 5 and 10 games, has the bullpen seen extended work in recent games, how teams hit against left or right handed pitching. I know I do, and I also use many other elements of the game such as runners lost on base, runners in scoring position with two outs, how deep pitchers are going with pitch counts. Is it a night or day game and especially if it's a day game following a night game the day before.
Of course most recreational bettors don't have the time or inclination for that matter to delve inside the numbers and keep records as full time jobs and family commitments take up so much of their time. So this brief article is designed for those that would like to cap their own match-ups with some simple but effective systems that require as much time as it takes to read the back page of the sports section in the newspaper.
Let's start with strikes and walks. When I handicap games I have all the starters for that day "KW" stats for their last game, last three and five games and overall on the season These stats are an indication to how much control a pitcher has around the plate. A pitcher who walks a lot of batters is a sitting duck for the batting team as no doubt they will be sitting on the fast ball over the plate as the pitcher falls continually behind in the count. Furthermore, the starter is not going to be pitching many innings unless he keeps living by the double play, so the bullpen has to work over an extended period.
The following systems are all based on starting pitchers.
Situation #1;
PLAY ON a starter who has good KW control (better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts) vs. a starter who has poor KW control (more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts). This simple system is 32 games over .500 since the start of 2003. You may be surprised that most of the qualifiers have been small favourites and dogs.
Situation #2;
PLAY AGAINST starters who have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts combined and also has more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts vs. their opponent. This little system is very effective going 63-37 the last 100 occurrences.
Situation #3;
A good angle to be on the look out for is a match-up where both starting pitchers have a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last three starts. This will not happen that often during a season as pitchers who are able to put together quality starts with regularity are a hot commodity and they are few and far between.
Not surprisingly by wagering on the UNDER in these match-ups would have produced a record of 41-23 (64%) over the last two seasons.
Situation #4;
On the flip side of situation #3, when you have both pitchers that have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts, by playing the OVER would have given you a 65% play on system over the last two seasons.
Finally, and one of my favourite situations is looking for starters that won their last game after allowing twice as many runners on base than innings he has pitched. When a starter has done exactly that above, it is often referred to as "a phony win" and no doubt the starter has relied upon double plays and/or great production from his teams offense. This sets up another opportunity worthy of support that I call playing against the "phony win".
Situation #5;
PLAY AGAINST a starter who in his last start allowed twice as many base runners as innings pitched and still came away with the win. The PHONY WIN situation is 78-49 the last two years.
Play on or against Starters in MLB
Wednesday April 18th, 2005
It is much said that sports books base their baseball money lines on who is on the mound for each ball club. That may be true to a certain extent and in my view it forms the basis (starting point) for the line marker. But I am also sure that books incorporate into their lines a number of other variants such as; how sides are batting over their last 5 and 10 games, has the bullpen seen extended work in recent games, how teams hit against left or right handed pitching. I know I do, and I also use many other elements of the game such as runners lost on base, runners in scoring position with two outs, how deep pitchers are going with pitch counts. Is it a night or day game and especially if it's a day game following a night game the day before.
Of course most recreational bettors don't have the time or inclination for that matter to delve inside the numbers and keep records as full time jobs and family commitments take up so much of their time. So this brief article is designed for those that would like to cap their own match-ups with some simple but effective systems that require as much time as it takes to read the back page of the sports section in the newspaper.
Let's start with strikes and walks. When I handicap games I have all the starters for that day "KW" stats for their last game, last three and five games and overall on the season These stats are an indication to how much control a pitcher has around the plate. A pitcher who walks a lot of batters is a sitting duck for the batting team as no doubt they will be sitting on the fast ball over the plate as the pitcher falls continually behind in the count. Furthermore, the starter is not going to be pitching many innings unless he keeps living by the double play, so the bullpen has to work over an extended period.
The following systems are all based on starting pitchers.
Situation #1;
PLAY ON a starter who has good KW control (better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts) vs. a starter who has poor KW control (more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts). This simple system is 32 games over .500 since the start of 2003. You may be surprised that most of the qualifiers have been small favourites and dogs.
Situation #2;
PLAY AGAINST starters who have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts combined and also has more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts vs. their opponent. This little system is very effective going 63-37 the last 100 occurrences.
Situation #3;
A good angle to be on the look out for is a match-up where both starting pitchers have a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last three starts. This will not happen that often during a season as pitchers who are able to put together quality starts with regularity are a hot commodity and they are few and far between.
Not surprisingly by wagering on the UNDER in these match-ups would have produced a record of 41-23 (64%) over the last two seasons.
Situation #4;
On the flip side of situation #3, when you have both pitchers that have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts, by playing the OVER would have given you a 65% play on system over the last two seasons.
Finally, and one of my favourite situations is looking for starters that won their last game after allowing twice as many runners on base than innings he has pitched. When a starter has done exactly that above, it is often referred to as "a phony win" and no doubt the starter has relied upon double plays and/or great production from his teams offense. This sets up another opportunity worthy of support that I call playing against the "phony win".
Situation #5;
PLAY AGAINST a starter who in his last start allowed twice as many base runners as innings pitched and still came away with the win. The PHONY WIN situation is 78-49 the last two years.
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