Tweet
The " Fatigue Factor" In The Nba
THE "FATIGUE FACTOR" IN THE NBA
With so many games being played in the NBA each season, teams are often forced to play games on consecutive days, play 3 games in 4 nights or even 4 games in 5 days. Basketball is a very physical and demanding sport, and "all" players, young and old alike feel the effects of these scheduling situations. The players refer to it as" playing on tired legs."
Unfortunately you are not going to make a living by playing against teams that are playing back to back games in two days. The reason being, that these oddsmakers are pretty sharp and well aware of the fatigue factor, and undoubtedly ajust the lines accordingly.
You must choose the proper situations when using this fatigue factor. Things to take into consideration are, but not limited to (1) was the first opponent a fierce rival (2) was the game a blowout (3) did it go into overtime (4) was there a serious amount of travel involved between games (5) where the games were played (at home, away or a combination of the two) and lastly (6) were there a lot of lead changes taking the game right down to the wire.
One might take for granted that a team playing consecutive nights on the road would be more apted to be tired, than a team playing a home game the next night after a road game. Don't be fooled by this falsehood that is widely accepted as being true by many bettors and professional handicappers alike. The exact opposite is true. Teams playing the second road game with no rest covers the spread at a higher rate than the team returning home the next night on no rest after an away game.
If a team gets off to a massive comfortable lead in the first half, and is afforded the opportunity to rest the starters in the second half without jeopardizing the outcome, they will usually not be susceptible to the fatigue factor. But, as I said, the oddsmakers will probably take that into account when setting the line.
Bottom line is, do not shy away from teams playing back to back games if all of the rest of your handicapping indicates a solid play. However, if the game goes into overtime or goes right down to the wire the night before, you must factor that into the equation as a possible fatigue factor. In the past 10 years, home teams have only covered 43% of the time when having played an overtime game the night before.
The best situation that you can look for is a team that is playing the fourth game in five days. If you look back over the years, you will find that numerous teams in that situation have been beaten outright as favorites by much weaker teams that are almost always the dog.
A good example of this was on Nov. 27,2002. The 1-13 pathetic Memphis Grizzlies were hosting 9-6 Seattle. Seattle was playing their 4th game in 5 days, all in different cities. Still the oddsmakers had Seattle favored to win, and the betting public was convinced that they would at least win the game outright.. Memphis jumped all over them from the beginning of the game and never trailed in the game, winning by 18.
These types of situations are out there to be had, you just have to look for them. Betting enough on that money line can keep you well for the entire month.
I have taken some of this information from an article by Ben Burns, a highly respected #1 handicapper, and some of it has been added by me. "GOOD LUCK" in all your plays. Remember to go back a few days into a teams schedule to see if the fatigue factor can be used wisely, you'll be glad you did.
THE "FATIGUE FACTOR" IN THE NBA
With so many games being played in the NBA each season, teams are often forced to play games on consecutive days, play 3 games in 4 nights or even 4 games in 5 days. Basketball is a very physical and demanding sport, and "all" players, young and old alike feel the effects of these scheduling situations. The players refer to it as" playing on tired legs."
Unfortunately you are not going to make a living by playing against teams that are playing back to back games in two days. The reason being, that these oddsmakers are pretty sharp and well aware of the fatigue factor, and undoubtedly ajust the lines accordingly.
You must choose the proper situations when using this fatigue factor. Things to take into consideration are, but not limited to (1) was the first opponent a fierce rival (2) was the game a blowout (3) did it go into overtime (4) was there a serious amount of travel involved between games (5) where the games were played (at home, away or a combination of the two) and lastly (6) were there a lot of lead changes taking the game right down to the wire.
One might take for granted that a team playing consecutive nights on the road would be more apted to be tired, than a team playing a home game the next night after a road game. Don't be fooled by this falsehood that is widely accepted as being true by many bettors and professional handicappers alike. The exact opposite is true. Teams playing the second road game with no rest covers the spread at a higher rate than the team returning home the next night on no rest after an away game.
If a team gets off to a massive comfortable lead in the first half, and is afforded the opportunity to rest the starters in the second half without jeopardizing the outcome, they will usually not be susceptible to the fatigue factor. But, as I said, the oddsmakers will probably take that into account when setting the line.
Bottom line is, do not shy away from teams playing back to back games if all of the rest of your handicapping indicates a solid play. However, if the game goes into overtime or goes right down to the wire the night before, you must factor that into the equation as a possible fatigue factor. In the past 10 years, home teams have only covered 43% of the time when having played an overtime game the night before.
The best situation that you can look for is a team that is playing the fourth game in five days. If you look back over the years, you will find that numerous teams in that situation have been beaten outright as favorites by much weaker teams that are almost always the dog.
A good example of this was on Nov. 27,2002. The 1-13 pathetic Memphis Grizzlies were hosting 9-6 Seattle. Seattle was playing their 4th game in 5 days, all in different cities. Still the oddsmakers had Seattle favored to win, and the betting public was convinced that they would at least win the game outright.. Memphis jumped all over them from the beginning of the game and never trailed in the game, winning by 18.
These types of situations are out there to be had, you just have to look for them. Betting enough on that money line can keep you well for the entire month.
I have taken some of this information from an article by Ben Burns, a highly respected #1 handicapper, and some of it has been added by me. "GOOD LUCK" in all your plays. Remember to go back a few days into a teams schedule to see if the fatigue factor can be used wisely, you'll be glad you did.
Comment