I found something to be very profitable...

[SustainDan]

On pinnacle sports, when I play a game I no longer take ML on favorites i take the option and take -1 at a much lower price. This has so much value....If you think the teams going to win anyways and they do the worst you can do is win your money back... My opinion its more profitable than -1.5 because if somehow your team wins by 1 run IE: dodgers today winning 9-8 you just get your money back...for example the normal odds on the cards for the ML was -136 or so I took cards -1 at -105 thats value........

JMO


Dan

[Spearit]

Thanks - I see your point but since you have one point differences in a number of games- you may not be winning overall what you think.

[HOOTERGUY]

the better

value I THINK is me between those 2 babe's LOL . i have heard of the 1 run line's & sound's like a good value , but my book dont have em ( yet ) good luck

[SustainDan]

well I saw in a past thread by frank there are not many 1 point games but enough..so those few 1 point games will give me a push...then when you have 2+ runs scored you get value on the 1 point line
JMO

[TRUCKIN]

dan

thanks for pointing that out i will look into it

[geeze]

Yes but the value only comes when you lose the smaller vig.

Ineresting point for thought, though.

[SustainDan]

I wonder if frank has any numbers on this stuff...
Thanks in advance
Dan

[garth]

well I saw in a past thread by frank there are not many 1 point games but enough..so those few 1 point games will give me a push...then when you have 2+ runs scored you get value on the 1 point line
JMO

The stat on one-run games is pretty consistent year after year. 28-29% of games are decided by one run.

[DOGHOODLUM]

i saw last week that frank posted stats from Last season that 634 of 2462 games were decided by 1 run. so yea thats around 25-26% or so

[SustainDan]

Well for instance today i had...
St. Louis -1 -105 intstead of the ML -135 W
LA Dodgers -1 +108 instead of ML -120 or so forgot P
FLA Marlins -1 +115 instead of ML -130 or so W

[DOGHOODLUM]

i totally agree with moneylines especially with really big favorites i just wish my book at -1 instead of just the -1 1/2

[Auz]

regardless of whether you like the -1 or -1.5, i'd just like to point out that you can 'create' your own -1 lines at books that don't offer it.

for example, if there's a line at ML +100 and -1.5 +180,
lay 1 unit on ML and 1 unit on -1.5 line,
hence, if your team wins by more than 1 run, you're up 2.8 units in this case,
if your team wins by exactly 1 run, you're even
and if your team loses, you're down 2 units.

in this scenario, we have 2 units to make 2.8units so it ends up being a -1 +140 bet. for many cases, (if you shop around well) this ends up being a better bet than the -1 bet that pinny offers. i've looked into this exact same sich before. as a side advice, don't think of the -1/-1.5 bets for just any large favourites. think of the type of game you would anticipate. in my opinion, lower scoring games tend to be closer.

[frankb03]

I wonder if frank has any numbers on this stuff...
Thanks in advance
Dan

When I have a chance I'll check the stats for you.

You might considering passing on the home favorites -1. The reason home favorites lose their at-bat in the 9th if they are winning. It might be a worthwile wager with road favorites.

[Three Jack]

When I have a chance I'll check the stats for you.

You might considering passing on the home favorites -1. The reason home favorites lose their at-bat in the 9th if they are winning. It might be a worthwile wager with road favorites.

Not a bad idea, just wish I had thought of it before I laid lumber on Atl and a whole forest on St. Louis.....

[Spearit]

Wish I read this before laying -1.5 on Oakland. One less at bat inning could be the diff. Auz or Frakb03- How would you play this - put same bet down on ml as well?