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**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:31 PM

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:

S CAROLINA +6' over CLEMSON

The visiting team is 17-4 ATS the L/21 meetings (11-2 ATS the L/13) with 4 of the L/6 contests being decided by 9 pts or less. LY S Car was very banged up and emotionally down off a blowout home loss to Florida 54-17. S Car QB Phil Petty played with a separated shoulder, and the Gamecocks gutted out a 20-15 SU home win, but didnt cover as 5 pt HFs which ended a Tiger 4 game SU winning streak in the series. CU QB Charlie Whitehurst had avgd 347 ypg in his first 2 starts with an 8-0 ratio (vs NC and Duke), but came back to earth LW facing the tough MD defense and threw for 130 yds (46%) with a 0-1 ratio. S Car is a young team that has been devastated by inj this season. The team has avgd 252 ypg & 7.8 ppg in their 4 game losing streak. QB Corey Jenkins was moved to FS LW, but still saw some action on offense as Dondrial Pinkins started his first game in The Swamp hitting just 8 of 17 for 74 yds, but was the teams top rusher with 84 yds (6.5). The WR corps has been devastated by inj the last few weeks which has led to the struggling passing game. S Car needs to win this game to avoid a losing season and become bowl eligible. Clemson has already clinched bowl eligibility.

FORECAST: S Carolina 24 CLEMSON 23

NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:

4* Kansas St over MISSOURI - MU is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs Kansas St but both of those ATS wins were after KSU beat Nebraska and we won with plays on MU each time. LY MU susd their top pass rusher, DL Antwaun Bynum, & 2 Ps for this game, and KSU reaped the benefit of bad MU punts all day pulling out a 24-3 win as 20 pt AFs. KSU is off an absolutely dominating win over their rival (outrushed NU by a 415-97 margin!), while MU off their huge upset of Texas A&M. MU is 5-1 in the state of MO this year. The most interesting matchup is KSU CB Terence Newman (5-11 185, 4.25 40!) vs MU WR Justin Gage (6-4 210). LY Newman held Gage to just 3 recs & 44 yds. With KSUs easy win over Nebraska LW, they are the NCAAs top team according to our Power Poll. They have our #4 defense & #5 offense. KSU QB Ell Roberson ran for a school QB record 228 yds vs NU & went over the century mark with 1084 yds (6.4). RB Darren Sproles is the Cats leading rusher with 1231 yds (6.4) & has run for a school record seven 100 yd games in a row. MU QB Brad Smith needs just 1 rushing yd to become the NCAAs 2nd ever player with 2,000 yds passing & 1000 yds rushing in a season. MUs D ranks #74. MU was fortunate to only lose to Colo and Iowa St by 7 pts each despite being grossly outplayed and KSU usually does not allow foes to stay close. MU would go to a bowl with a win over the Cats but run into the nations hottest team at the wrong time.

FORECAST: Kansas St 47 MISSOURI 20

3* PURDUE over Indiana - The weather was a huge factor in LYs battle for the Old Oaken Bucket as the game was played in a driving rain storm which made Purdue basically abandon their quick cutting running game (-8 yds rushing on just 18 att). PU gave PS#11QB Kyle Orton his first collegiate start in the game and he hit 31 of 62 for 263 yds. The game was IU QB Antwaan Randle-Els final Big 10 tilt and he got his only win vs IUs biggest rival. Purdue has outscored IU 186-64 under Tiller. IU is playing their 7th game in a row & with just 38 scholarship players available. The wear & tear of the long season has taken its toll as theyve lost their L/5 in a row SU & ATS. DiNardo has also treated the last few weeks as bowl-like practices with scout team players seeing more action to prep the team for next year. DiNardo went back to QB Tommy Jones LW & he hit 22-39 for 180 yds with a 2-3 ratio vs PSU. We went against IU LW winning a 4* Late Phone Selection & 3* Key Selection on PSU as they dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides as expected. UI has allowed 252 ypg (5.9) rushing in Big 10 play. Purdue is the best team in the country with a losing record. Theyve lost to 4 of the BCSs Top 10 teams by a combined 16 pts. Theyve outgained those foes on avg 384-319 with their -7 TO margin being the difference. Purdue is off a MAJORLY misleading final LW as they had a 343-59 yd edge at the half yet only led 24-17. Purdue is 13-6-2 ATS as a HF vs conf foes. Tiller went back to a healthier Brandon Kirsch at QB LW. He adds a more mobile dimension to the QB position which he has run for 387 yds (5. including 125 LW vs MSU. Kyle Orton did come off the bench to throw the game winning 40 yd TD pass vs MSU on 4th & 8 after Kirsch had the wind knocked out of him. Tiller did say that LWs effort was Kirschs worst yet and seeing Orton start here would not be a surprise. Purdue has major advantages in both offense (#12-#84) & defense (#28-101). Tiller has the tools to extract revenge for LY and has shown no mercy vs his overmatched state rival with the prospect of extending the Big 10’s second longest bowl streak on the line (5 yrs).

FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Indiana 10

3* OREGON ST over Oregon - The Civil War had avgd 60 ppg the prev 5 yrs but LYs game was played in heavy rain and 20-30 mph winds and although the Beavers held the ydg adv 359-209 the Ducks took adv of a 70 yd PR & 80 yd drive for TDs to pull out a 17-14 non-covering win. UO is now 16-5-1 SU the L/22 but OSU is 11-3 ATS the L/14 in this series. The home team has won 5 in a row SU but is 2-3 ATS. The Beavers are 14-1 ATS as HFs since LY it was Joey Harrington vs Jonathan Smith at QB but this year it is Jason Fife vs Derek Anderson (238 ypg, 46% 19-12). Fife has struggled the past couple of wks vs Wash & Wash St throwing for 181 ypg (41%) and a 6-3 ratio while Anderson has struggled vs Pac 10 teams throwing for 203 ypg (38%) with a 4-11 ratio. Against non-conf teams he had 300 ypg (63%) and a 15-1 ratio. A big key will be the running game where OSU RB Steven Jackson has 1503 (5.7) yds against an Oregon team that has lost its leading rusher PS#22 Onterrio Smith (1079 4. to knee surgery indefinitely. LW they used PS#177 Ryan Shaw (42 yds 6.0) and PS#375 Terrence Whitehead (34, 4.3) in his place. The Ducks are reeling losing 4 of their L/5 games as their secondary has been smoked for an avg of 400 ypg. The Beavers are a better team at home and avg 460 yds on offense there compared to 408 overall. They hold the ranking edges on offense (#30 vs #45) and defense (#12 vs #56). OSU has revenge on its mind and is much tougher at home.

FORECAST: OREGON ST 33 Oregon 20

OTHER SELECTIONS:

2* Maryland over VIRGINIA - The visitor is now 12-6 ATS the L/18 while the Terps are 18-8 ATS the last 26 including 4 straight covers. LY MD got their 1st SU win over UVA since 91, 41-21, outgaining the Cavs 480-345 in a wild contest (see Past History). MD is 9-1 ATS as an AF since 97. Virg is 5-1 ATS their L/6 home finales. UVA is 7-2 ATS as a HD the L/3Y, including LWs upset vs NCSt as a 7 pt dog as the Northcoast Sportsline Complimentary Underdog Play of the Week making them bowl eligible. UVA ranks #103 nationally in total D, yielding 436 ypg. The Cavs did lose TB Alvin Pearman prior to LW for the yr with a knee inj. QB Matt Schaub is avg 228 ypg (69%) with a solid 23-6 ratio & is ranked #9 nationally in pass eff. The Terps continue to be solid as theyre outscoring their opp 34.2-14.8 ppg and have our #23 ranked offense & #27 ranked defense (Cavs #47 off & #66 def). LW the Terps beat Clem for the 1st time in Death Valley S/85. MD is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since we used Florida St against them as our first Sept 5* in their 37-10 loss. Never step in front of a stampeding Turtle and the Terps are the far better team and show it here.

FORECAST: Maryland 34 VIRGINIA 17

2* Usc over UCLA - We used USC +5 as our Underdog Play of the Week in Power Sweep and they delivered the outright upset 27-0 LY. The Trojans only had 276 yds of offense but held the Foster-less Bruins to 114 total yds. The underdog is now 11-2 ATS while the home team 13-5 ATS in this series. The Bruins had won 8 in a row SU but have now dropped 3 straight. UCLA is 5-2 as a HD under Toledo. The Bruins are off a bye and have one again next week before taking on Pac 10 leader Wash St. They are being led by a couple of true Fr at QB in PS#17 Drew Olson & PS#19 Matt Moore who have taken over since Cory Paus was injurd in the Cal game. UCLA has avg 177 ypg pass (50%) without Paus. They are relying on the run behind a rFr PS#15 Tyler Ebell (858 yds 4.6 ypc) who took over the starting job due to inj and has run for over 100 yds in each of the 6 games. USC is led by Heisman hopeful Carson Palmer who has thrown for 296 ypg (62%) with a 24-8 ratio. Their running game has struggled most of the year but has shown signs of life with Justin Fargas (PS#1) at TB as he has 307 yds rush (5.0) in the past 3 games he has started. USC holds the ranking edges offensively (#3 vs #34) and defensively (#6 vs #15). In the 3 games since Paus was injurd, the Bruins have taken on 2 weak teams (Ariz & Stan) and vs a decent team they were outgained by Wash 498-316 yet still won 34-24. This Trojan defense doesnt let anyone through and will be the toughest test for the young QBs, both whom are expected to get playing time, and even though USC has ND on deck they have been preaching the one game at a time mentality and have won & covered 4 straight wks.

FORECAST: Usc 24 UCLA 13

2* Illinois over NORTHWESTERN - Illinois & their fans celebrated a share of the Big 10 Title on Turkey Day LY with their non-covering home win 34-28 over the gritty, injury smitten (down to 4th string TB) Cats as teams combined to amass 1,037 yds. The visitor is 11-3 ATS the L/14 & the dog is 8-4 ATS the L/12 in this instate rivalry. The last time they met in Evanston we used a 4* Late Phone Selection on NW as they destroyed the Illini 61-23 as road dogs with the Illinois Dustin Ward (20-37 for 246 yds with a 2-1 ratio) getting the start for an injured Kurt Kittner. NW is 5-1 ATS after a week off. UI is off three tough games in a row including LWs heartbreaking OT loss to the Buckeyes. The Illini are 14-5-1 ATS on grass (2-0 TY). They have been more efficient with Jon Beutjer at QB and he has avg 223 ypg (59%) with an 18-10 ratio. RB Antoineo Harris has run for 1152 yds (4.9) and he should have a big day here against a NW defense that is allowing 323 ypg rush (5.5). For the Cats mobility is an important key for their QB and Brett Basanez who is avg 204 ypg (58%) with a 6-4 ratio had been slowed by a leg injury but should be closer to 100% with the off week. They also have a 1,000 yd rusher in RB Jason Wright (1115, 5.6). Illinois has big advantage on both sides of the ball (#13 vs #57 off, #52 vs #115 def). Illinois has now won FIVE straight ATS this year and beat a similar Indy team by 31 in that stretch.

FORECAST: Illinois 44 NORTHWESTERN 27

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:

4* Green Bay over TAMPA BAY - These teams split the series SU LY but Tampa Bay won both games ATS. In the 2 games Green Bay had a combined 31-27 FD edge & 674-447 yd edge. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS the last 7 in this matchup. QB Brett Favre has had a another solid year throwing for 2540 yds (64%) & a 19-7 ratio. Tampas defense has allowed 1762 passing (51%) & has a 4-21 ratio. Tampa QB Brad Johnson is having a decent year throwing for 2110 yds (62%) with a 14-5 ratio. The Packer defense has allowed 2132 yds passing (51%) passing with a 13-18 ratio. Green Bay does hold the edge in that they have a better rushing game than the Bucs do this year as they have earned 120 ypg rushing (4.3 ypc) mainly behind Ahman Green. Tampa has 92 ypg (3.2) rushing on a platoon system of Mike Alstott, Michael Pittman & Aaron Stecker. The only times that the Bucs have rushed for over 100 yds in a game they were facing Cincy, Cleveland & Minnesota. This is going to be a hard fought game that will help determine home field advantage & we side with Brett Favre working his magic for the road win.

FORECAST: Green Bay 20 TAMPA BAY 13

3* Jacksonville over DALLAS - The last time these teams played each other was in 2000 with the Jaguars winning 23-17 as 3 pt HDs in OT. This is the Jaguars 1st game TY on artificial turf & they are 7-1 ATS on turf the last 3 yrs. They are also 4-9-1 ATS on the road vs NFC teams the last 14 games. Dallas is 5-11-2 ATS & 6-12 O/U at home vs AFC teams. Jacksonville has been outFDd on avg 26-17 & outgained 369-302 but boasts a combined 71-56 pt total & a 2-1 SU & ATS record vs NFC teams. Dallas has been outFD&d on avg 17-12 & outgained 299-247 & has been outscored 52-34 with a 1-2 SU & ATS record against AFC teams. The Cowboys have their yearly Turkey Day game on deck & they have gone 1-5 SU & ATS the last 6 yrs prior to that game. Jacksonville is bringing their version of the triplets in with Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith & Fred Taylor who should feast on a Cowboys team who might be looking ahead to Thanksgiving when they play host to the rival Redskins.

FORECAST: Jacksonville 24 DALLAS 17

OTHER SELECTIONS:

2* MIAMI over San Diego - This is a meeting of run first, pass second & defend always teams. Miami ranks 9th rushing, 21st passing with the 6th overall defense. San Diego is 6th rushing, 24th passing & 25th in defense. The last time they met was in 2000 when Miami won 17-7 as 5 pt AFs with the Chargers having a 19-15 FD edge but 4 ints by Ryan Leaf did them in. HC Marty Schottenheimer knows how to get his team ready for the road as he is 9-1 ATS doing so. Miami is 17-3 ATS against non-division AFC teams. Miamis defense at home is allowing 69 ypg rushing (3.2) & 191 ypg passing (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. San Diego on the road is allowing 72 ypg rush (3.6) but 311 ypg passing (68%) with a road ratio of 10-5. QB Drew Brees has impressed us with his ability to perform under pressure TY but against a Miami team that is 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 at home and has its confidence back. We side with the Dolphins.

FORECAST: MIAMI 20 San Diego 7

2* Cleveland (+) over NEW ORLEANS - The last time these 2 teams met was in 1999 when the Browns got their 1st win as an expansion team beating the Saints 21-16 as 9 pt ADs on a Tim Couch Hail Mary pass. The Saints had a 25-9 FD edge & a 351-243 yds edge but had 5 TOs in the game that would ultimately cost Mike Ditka his job. Cleveland is 3-7 ATS vs NFC teams & 1-5 ATS vs them on the road. The Saints are 2-7-2 ATS at home vs AFC teams. The Saints at home have been outFDd 24-20 & outgained 396-361 while outscoring foes 34-28. The Browns on the road have outFDd opponents 18-17 & outgained them 311-303 on avg while breaking even 20-20 in scoring. Deuce McAllister sprained his right ankle LW & his status is unknown. The Saints have a huge game at home next week vs Tampa Bay which could go a long way towards determining home field advantage in the playoffs so look ahead may be a problem. An outright upset would not surprise us.

FORECAST: Cleveland 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28

**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:31 PM

WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

*****BEST BET
T.C.U. over EAST CAROLINA* by 25
As we get deeper into November, there is more of a focus on physical dominance at the line of scrimmage as a major handicapping factor. Fresh vs. Tired, Strong vs. Weak, and all that is associated with those notions. And we have that going for us in a major way here. Gary Pattersons Horned Frogs are on the verge of a Conference U.S.A. championship and a bowl bid, and can take a major step by beating an opponent that they should want in the worst way. T.C.U. suffered a bitter 37-30 defeat to these Pirates on national television LY, after they rallied from a 30-7 halftime deficit to tie the game, but things have changed a great deal between these two since then. While Pattersons defense is even better in the second year of his schemes, Steve Logan is having his worst season at East Carolina. Instead of getting stronger they have worn down as the campaign progressed, with four of the last six opponents getting 500 or more yards, and only Army failing to reach 34 points in regulation. And it is not as though they are weak in any specific category recent opponents have been able to both run and pass at will against them. As always, the best way to compare teams from the same conference is to let the schedule do its thing AND these two have faced four common opponents, and the Pirate defense is only a play or two away from allowing twice as many yards 1,803-914. With a fresh and motivated visitor under-valued in this spread range, a mismatch in the trenches becomes one on the scoreboard as well. T.C.U. 34-9.

***BEST BET
CINCINNATI over HAWAII* by 11
Is this another of those late-season spots in which a team from the mainland treats a non-conference game on the islands as little more than a vacation? Not at all. Rick Minter has his Bearcats playing outstanding football right now, and with a bowl bid waiting for them should they grab this win we can expect a solid degree of intensity, especially off of a non-taxing rout of Houston last week. No, this time the host Rainbows are the ones in the flat spot. They had two weeks to prepare for last Saturdays conference revenge affair against Rice, which meant a lot of time studying how to defend option football. They will see no option plays at all here, which means a difficult transition. But there is an even greater distraction at hand ; that showdown on this same field next week vs. Top 10 Washington State, which could enter that game as the highest rated team they have ever faced here. So what excites June Jones and his team about facing Cincinnati? Very little, and that becomes a major problem once they hit the field. What they are going to find is a hard-hitting and fierce defensive unit that has held five straight opponents to less than 300 yards, with an ability to stop both the run and the pass. And offensively the development of a consistent ground game (over 200 yards rushing in three of the last four games) gives Gino Guidugli the kind of balance to move it at will vs. this defense. The Rainbows may have faced the easiest schedule in Division I to this point, and theyll get exploited here. CINCINNATI 35-24.

**PREFERRED PLAYS

Michigan over Ohio State* by 7
We can look at the Ohio State season two ways. One is that those close calls on the road at Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois are the stuff that championships are made of, and that they are a team of destiny. The other is that a championship team would not have to work as hard as they did to dispatch that class of opponent. Our call above indicates our opinion. This is a good, but not great, team that is 5-0 in games decided by a TD or less, and despite their national ranking and the line on this game we are actually looking at two very even teams. If anything, the Wolverines might be the fresher and looser squad right now, not having had to carry such a heavy burden all season, which can make a major difference in a close game. And what better way to cap the schedule than by knocking your most hated rival out of a chance to play for it all? It is the second best conclusion to any Michigan season. MICHIGAN 24-17.

Wisconsin* over Minnesota by 17
Barry Alavarez expected to suffer some growing pains with a very young roster entering this season, but in no way could he ever have anticipated sitting at 1-6 going into the final Big 10 game of the season. That makes this a rather major affair, however, to carry some momentum into next season, and still perhaps grab a minor bowl bid. And it is not as though they have played all that poorly four of those conference defeats came by a single TD or less. Now they are in against a soft Gopher squad that they can match up well against, using their physical ground game to dominate a fatigued opponent. That Minnesota fatigue is both physical and mental, having had to play the Big 10s elite of Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa in the last three games, and after putting up some decent rushing numbers vs. the weak sisters on their schedule, they have shown no ability to control the line of scrimmage vs. the most physical opponents. WISCONSIN 34-17.

N.C. State* over Florida State by 6
In setting the line for this one, the oddsmakers must accept the following as public perceptionwhen they make their final calculations. That these two teams are heading in opposite directions, with the traditional power coming on strong and the weaker program fading; and 2. The Seminoles will have a major revenge focus after suffering a rare A.C.C. home loss vs. the Wolfpack LY. And what that adds up to is a bad line. Sure, N. C. State has lost three in a row after that great start, but the Wolfpack have yet to play a bad game and had a chance to have won each of those defeats. And forget about the Seminoles being on any kind of major run they were losing at halftime in each of their last two conference road games, and do not show the ability to throw the ball vs. a class defense. The bottom line is that we may have a home underdog that is every bit the equal of the favorite, an usual option for us at this time of the season. N.C. STATE 27-21.

Arkansas over Mississippi State* by 19
Will this be the final game ever for Jackie Sherrill in Starkville? We believe so. And we also believe that one final blowout to cap a season in which they have not been able to even compete in their S.E.C. home games (lost to Auburn by 28, Kentucky by 21 and Tennessee by 18). The key is that there will not be any special emotion here for Sherrill there has been no formal announcement about either his firing or resignation. Whatever spark the Bulldog players have left will be saved for the quick turn-around game against Ole Miss on Thursday. That leaves them flat here to be physically beaten by a solid Arkansas defense and running game. The Razorbacks out-rushed State 329-65 in LYs win in Fayetteville, and given that only Alabama has held them to less than 200 yards rushing in S.E.C. play (they still got 172 yards at 5.3 per carry in that game), a listless Bulldog defense will not stand up to them in this setting. ARKANSAS 32-13.

NFL FOOTBALL

****BEST BET
Buffalo over *New York Jets by 14
Forget Chad Pennington and Curtis Martin. The most marked man for the Jets in this matchup could be none other than kick returner Chad Morton. Hes the man you may recall who brought back two kickoffs for touchdowns and had 278 yards in returns when the Jets beat the Bills, 37-31, in overtime during opening week. The Bills did everything in that game but come out ahead on the final score because of Morton. Buffalo out-gained the Jets, 384-266, and won the time of possession battle, 39:08-21:06. Yes, there have been some changes since then. Pennington has replaced Vinny Testaverde at quarterback and looked very sharp. Martin is healthy now after being gimpy with a bad ankle. We still believe, though, the Bills are the better team. Thanks to strong-armed QB Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo has scored more than 30 points six times. The Billsdefense also has been showing improvement, holding three of their last four opponents to 17 points or less. As a road underdog this season, the Bills have covered in all four spots (against Minnesota, Denver, Miami and Kansas City). The Jets, on the other hand, have been horrible at home covering just nine of their past 26 home games (34 percent). As a home favorite, the Jets are even worse at 6-12 ATS (33 percent). The Jets have turned their season around by beating San Diego on the road, nipping Miami at home and defeating Detroit last week on the road. But while the Jets werent as bad as they looked early in the season, by the same token they are not as good now that theyve rolled off a little winning streak. The Jets have improved their rush defense, but are still struggling to apply pressure to the quarterback. Bledsoe has been sacked 36 times. Hes not mobile, and he needs plenty of time to throw. The Bills should be able to afford him time to pass against the Jets. That will be the key. BUFFALO 31-17.

****BEST BET
*Miami over San Diego by 17
With a banged-up offensive line missing three starters, including right tackle Vaughn Parker and center Cory Raymer, we cant see the Chargers controlling the line of scrimmage against the tough Miami defense. If the Chargers cant do that, they cant win in this rugged road matchup. The Chargers need RB LaDainian Tomlinson to be able to pick up yards. However, the Dolphins are surrendering less than 12 points a game their past four home contests. After a fast start in which they won six of their first seven, the Chargers have hit a bump defensively. They have allowed an average of 30 points and 466 yards their last three games. Miami coach Dave Wannestadt is an impressive 16-6-1 ATS (72 percent) at home. Not only is this a cross-country trip for the Chargers, but it also will be played at 10 a.m. West Coast time. The point spread is somewhat low because regular Miami QB Jay Fiedler probably wont be ready to suit up again for another two weeks as he nurses a broken right thumb. So this will be backup quarterback Ray LucasFifth start. The Dolphins averaged just 10 points in Lucas first three starts. But Lucas finally started feeling comfortable last week at home as the Dolphins put up 26 points against a Ravens defense that had Ray Lewis back. Ricky Williams helped out Lucas with only his second 100-yard rushing effort in seven games. The Chargers will have to keep close tabs on Williams, which in turn should allow Lucas more freedom. Lucas doesnt have a great passing touch, but he is mobile and a good athlete. The Chargers have only had 10 sacks their last seven games after coming up with 16 sacks during their first three games. The Chargers had to go overtime last week, and they have key division games against Denver and Oakland the next two weeks. So their focus could be off. MIAMI 27-10.

**PREFERRED PLAYS
Cleveland over *New Orleans by 5
The Saints better not brood too long about losing to Atlanta and Mike Vick again this past Sunday, or they will find themselves in serious trouble. The Saints also better guard against looking ahead to meeting division leader Tampa Bay in a nationally televised matchup the following Sunday. The Saints may not have the maturity to escape this sandwich situation. This is a team, while very talented on offense, is capable of losing to just about anybody, including the lowly Lions. Cleveland has lost five times. But four of those defeats have come by a combined margin of 12 points. Only the Buccaneers were able to impose their will on the Browns, and the Saints dont have that kind of defense. In fact, the Saints are allowing an average of 25.7 points. Playing on carpet for the first time in two years should actually help the Browns because they like to throw the ball and spread out their offense. Since giving up 40 to Kansas City opening week, the Browns have held their last nine foes to an average of less than 20 points a game. Getting suspended CB Dale Carter should boost a Saints secondary that ranks among the worst. But the Saints could be without star RB Deuce McAllister (check status), who sustained an ankle injury last week. Note to those who enjoy totals, the Browns have gone over 16 of their last 21 road contests, while the Saints had gone above the total every game until last week. CLEVELAND 28-23.

*Washington over St. Louis by 7
Bulger has left his Marc, but will the switch from Marc Bulger to Kurt Warner be good for St. Louis? We think not, going on the assumption Warner is going to start this game instead of Bulger. Warner didnt seem physically sound even before he broke his finger. He wasnt throwing tight spirals, but instead flutter balls. This was reflected in a 66.4 percent quarterback mark, eight interceptions, only one TD pass and a 0-4 mark going into Mondays game against Chicago. It was up to the unheralded Bulger to give the Rams a spark and recharge their playoff batteries. No matter who is quarterbacking, though, the Rams have always been a high turnover team, having committed 24 heading into their game against the Bears. They also will be traveling on a short week, and their speed will be negated playing on a grass field. Marshall Faulk (check status) also has been bothered by a foot injury. Steve Spurrier does better when he turns his Fun Gun offense into a Run Done style with plenty of carries from Stephen Davis. Spurriers genius reputation has been a little tarnished, but hes still smart enough to realize he needs his team to play ball control to keep the Rams offense off the field. When the Redskins do this, they are an effective team as evidenced by their victories against Indianapolis and Seattle and a point spread cover against the Giants during three of the last four weeks. WASHINGTON 28-21.

TOTALS OVER/UNDER

**UNDER: Jacksonville at Dallas The Cowboys havent score more than 17 points since Week 2, while allowing an average of just 14 points their last seven games.

OVER: Kansas City at Seattle - The Chiefs are averaging 29 points a game and the Seahawks have a cluster injury problem at linebacker.

UNDER: Green Bay at Tampa Bay Until last week, the Packers had allowed an average of less than 11 points their previous four games, while the Bucs are holding foes to less than 12 points a game on the season.

**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:31 PM

Confidential Kick-Off

11 *NEW ENGLAND over Minnesota Late Scote Forecast: *NEW ENGLAND 34 - Minnesota 13 (Sunday, November 22)
Worst possible situation for Minnesota. Playing outdoors, in Massachusetts weather. On grass. Facing defending Super Bowl champs off a loss and currently out of playoff position. Daunte Culpepper still throwing ints. (two more last week vs. G.B.; now 16). And often using two rookies in its rebuilding secondary, which Pats-with their many, varied, multiple-receiver, often no-huddle formations-can exploit repeatedly. Yes, Vikings have come up with a quality ground threat in RB Bennett (4 straight 100-yd. games). But Pats insiders are telling us HC Belichick is getting fed up with his team's inconsistency and is demanding a 2001-like late-season winning streak...starting NOW! Vikings were road marauders in real history, but not in NFL recently, going 0-15 SU, 3-12 vs. the spread their last 15, with their last 3 losses by 13 or more.

10 *SAN JOSE STATE over Fresno State Late Score Forecast: *SAN JOSE STATE 37 - Fresno State 31
WAC scouts report upbeat, bowl-seeking 6-6 SJS having excellent week of practice in preparation for key showdown with neighboring rival Fresno State. And insiders see no reason why chemistry-rich Spartans can't spring minor upset over less-explosive Fresno State squad (25 ppg; 15 ppg fewer than LY!) that needed a pair of int. returns for TDs to pull out 38-30 win over Nevada last week (Bulldogs were outgained by Wolf Pack 461-332!). In this matchup, it's more likely that the risk-taking, aggressive SJS defense (23 ints. & 37 takeways-both nation's best) forces FSU attack (21 giveaways) into some critical miscues. Meanwhile, expect SJS' mobile, accurate 6-2 QB Rislov (63%, 21 TDP) and high quality corps of WRs to do plenty of business vs. vulnerable Bulldog 2ndary (358 ypg passing; 11 ints.) burned by productive triggermen all year (Nevada's Threadgill threw for 363 yds.). Furthermore, Dr. Fitz Hill's squad has chip on shoulder after getting abused last 3 yrs. by Bulldog team that greatly benefited from services of now-departed A-A QB David Carr (starting for Houston Texans) during that span. Visitor just 1-5-2 vs. spread last 8 in '02.

10 *TEMPLE over Boston College Late Score Forecast: *TEMPLE 24 - Boston College 23
Temple has covered 3 of its last 4 as an underdog, and scrappy Owls have what it takes to give BC a 60-minute battle. Star sr. RB Sharps wore down Rutgers defense with 48 carries for 215 yds. in workmanlike win last week. Injuries have thinned Eagle defense up front (518 YR, 5+ ypc last 2 games), so Sharps (1244 YR) will again help Temple control ball, shrink clock, and give strong-armed QB McGann time to throw off play-action. BC, on the other hand, will have difficult time establishing its own ground game vs. unsung Owl defense (only 219 ypg last 3!). Swarming Temple stoppers (only 110 ypg rushing; held West Va., nation's top running team, and Va. Tech to fewer than 4 ypc) will close quickly on Eagle RB Knight, and BC QB St. Pierre (13 ints.) has tendency to force throws in 3rd-and-long situations. Relaxed Eagles ripe for upset after becoming bowl eligible with win over Syracuse last week; fundamentally-sound Owls seize opportunity.

10 UAB over *Louisville Late Score Forecast: UAB 23 - *Louisville 30 C-USA scouts are surprised that oddsmaker installed enigmatic Louisville as such a heavy favorite (18 points at CKO press time). After all, well-coached, hard-trying UAB still alive for bowl bid in competitive conference race. And see little reason to believe Blazers can't stay respectable here. HC Brown has found triggerman for his spread offense in confident RS frosh Hackney, who threw for 424 yds. and 3 TDs in SU win over E. Carolina last week. Aggressive Card defense (only 12 takeaways) not creating as many opportunities as it did in stellar 2001 campaign. And Hackney's running ability will him burn step-too-late L'ville stoppers for big plays to speedy sr. WR Quinnie & emerging soph WR White (16 catches for 239 yds. last 2 games). Poor-protecting Card OL (27 sacks last 6 games) won't be able to keep hard-blitzing UAB off QB Ragone, who is nursing a sore throwing hand. Ragone might be able to pull out SU win, but Blazers won't go down without a fight.

10 *MISSOURI over Kansas State Late Score Forecast: *MISSOURI 31 - Kansas State 30
Respected Big XII sources can't truly understand why pointspread has risen sharply early this week against an ascending 5-6 Mizzou squad beaming with confidence following impressive 33-27 upset at Texas A&M. Scouts report Tigers shrewd 2nd-year HC Pinkel effectively made defensive lineup changes that helped limit Aggies ground attack to a meager 36 yds. in 31 carries. And since shuffled, solid-run-stopping Mizzou "D" (allowing just 159 ypg, 3.9 ypc) hung tough vs. Nebraska option at Lincoln, don't see KSU attack and nifty QB Roberson going wild on the grass (and dirt) of Faurot Field, where Tigers are FG away from 7-0 spread mark last 7. On other side, Mizzou's ever-improving, versatile RS frosh QB B. Smith (accounted for 265 yds. vs. A&M) should continue to move chains vs.Wildcat defense that has been truly tested only once (and failed) away from cozy Manhattan in 35-31 upset loss at Colorado (KSU allowed 481 yds.). Also, like the psychology here as well, since it's reported that Snyder's squad probably heading for Cotton Bowl regardless of outcome, while Tigers need win to become bowl-eligible.

TOTALS: Jacksonville-Dallas UNDER (35)-Cowboys "under" 8 of 10 TY, thanks to quality defense and an offense in transition...Cincinnati-Pittsburgh OVER (44)-Cincy TOs have helped Bengals go "over" 7 of 10 TY; Kordell Stewart (13 of 17 in relief last week) learned some lessons while on bench.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
BALL STATE (-17) vs. Buffalo-Last home game for Ball's underrated RB Merriweather (1307 YR); recently-appointed starting QB Roesch hit 22 of 32 for 304 yds. last week on the road (at CMU)...
FLORIDA STATE (-5) at North Carolina State-Payback time for Bobby Bowden, who has a hot soph QB in McPherson and can lock up the undisputed ACC title and a BCS bowl with a victory...
TULANE (+5) vs. Southern Miss-Tulane's improved defense (28 takeaways!) will make things difficult for young Southern Miss Qbs...
SOUTH CAROLINA (+5) at Clemson-One of the top visitor-dominated rivalries in the country; Clemson offense struggles vs. good defenses...
BALTIMORE (+1.5) vs. Tennessee-With Ray Lewis back, there's now good value with Ravens, who are 17-6-2 as a dog under Brian Billick.

**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:32 PM

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL KEY RELEASES
BUFFALO by 7 over N.Y. Jets
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Cincinnati
OVER 40 points in the Green Bay-Tampa Bay game

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA by 7 over Miami-Ohio
TCU by 19 over East Carolina
ALABAMA by 20 over Auburn

THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE
89* TEXAS CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY
89* AIR FORCE
88* ALABAMA
88* PURDUE
88* PENN STATE
88* BALTIMORE

NEAR CHOICES RATED 87*
MARYLAND
ARKANSAS
ILLINOIS
STANFORD
BUFFALO
OAKLAND
SANFRANSICO

Pointwise Collegiate & NFL Football Newsletter

NCAA
1* MARYLAND over Virginia
1* ARKANSAS over Mississippi State
2* COLORADO STATE over New Mexico
3* PENN STATE over Michigan State
4* PURDUE over Indiana
4* TEMPLE over Boston College
5* WAKE FOREST over Navy
5* OKLAHOMA STATE over Baylor

NFL
3* MIAMI over San Diego
4* BUFFALO over New York Jets
4* PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
5* TAMPA BAY over Green bay
5* OAKLAND over Arizona

**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:33 PM

THE SUNSHINE FORCAST
Volume 19 Issue B3
Tuesday, November 19, 2002

WEEK 12 OF THE 2002 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Does a short week of preparation affect NFL teams? With Thanksgiving Day approaching, it's time to revisit the debate regarding "short preparation week" situations. This not only impacts Thanksgiving game participants but also teams playing on Monday Night Football. Does shorter preparation time hinder, assist, or have little effect? Based on our analysis of games from 1990 through 2001, the most dramatic circumstances involve teams that played well on the road or played poorly at home. Those performances tend to carry through into the next game as a sort of game-to- game momentum.

Teams who covered on the road before their short week were 67-55 ATS (55%) in the next game. In 2002, the overall ATS record is 3-1 with Chicago qualifying this Sunday against Detroit.

The Eagles followed their 37-7 Monday night win at Washington with another blowout, 44-13 at home against Dallas.

After Green Bay defeated Chicago 34-21 on Monday night, the Packers pulled an SU upset at New England.

San Francisco could not hold on as a small road dog at New Orleans after the 49ers Monday night win at Seattle.

Oakland handled New England 27-20 last Sunday evening after upsetting Denver on Monday night.

Something to look at, though, is that the historical success rate for this group jumps to nearly 63% (22-13) when getting points after the short week. These are squads that the public has typically underestimated, especially if speculation indicates that the team played over their heads before the short week. Home dogs are particularly "live" at 13-7 ATS (65%).

On the other side of the coin, teams that failed to cover at home went 54-69 ATS (44%) in the next game. In 2002, the overall ATS record is 1-1-1 with the Rams qualifying this Sunday at Washington.

The Redskins followed their loss to Philadelphia with a 20-10 defeat at San Francisco as 10-point underdogs.

The Seahawks were routed by the Rams in St. Louis, 37-20, after losing to the 49ers on Monday night.

Seattle lost to Denver last Sunday, 31-9, as the Broncos rebounded from their loss to Oakland.

The historical record for this group drops to 6-13 (32%) when favored at home after the short week. The expected bounce-back factor does not appear despite the lack of travel between games.

One contest to watch on Thanksgiving Day 2002 is New England at Detroit. If the Patriots do not cover against Minnesota on Sunday, they qualify as a "go against" team in the second group. If Detroit covers at Chicago on 11/24, the Lions qualify for the first group. Since Detroit would most likely be a home dog to New England, this would place them in the strongest subgroup.

------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted College Football Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Thursday, November 21, 2002
MIAMI-FLORIDA 34 Pittsburgh 16

Saturday, November 23, 2002
WAKE FOREST 40 Navy 19
Boston College 24 TEMPLE 16
North Carolina 27 DUKE 25
Maryland 31 VIRGINIA 20
OHIO STATE 32 Michigan 23
Illinois 42 NORTHWESTERN 25
PURDUE 37 Indiana 17
PENN STATE 36 Michigan State 16
WISCONSIN 24 Minnesota 19
LOUISIANA STATE 37 Mississippi 21
LOUISVILLE 29 Alabama-Birmingham 9
NOTRE DAME 30 Rutgers 6
BALL STATE 38 Buffalo 24
MIAMI-OHIO 35 U-C-F 25
Western Mich 33 CENTRAL MICH 31
Tex Christian 42 EAST CAROLINA 34
MEMPHIS 37 Army 17
Kansas State 38 MISSOURI 24
OKLAHOMA STATE 47 Baylor 19
Tennessee 27 VANDERBILT 12
KENT STATE 35 Akron 34
IOWA STATE 34 Connecticut 16
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 32 Toledo 31
SOUTHERN METHODIST 31 Tulsa 25
LOUISIANA TECH 53 Texas-El Paso 26
AIR FORCE 26 San Diego State 7
COLORADO STATE 37 New Mexico 21
South Florida 42 HOUSTON 30
Boise State 44 NEVADA-RENO 24
Southern Cal 40 U.C.L.A. 30
CALIFORNIA 47 Stanford 33
ALABAMA 28 Auburn 17
Florida State 23 NO CAROLINA ST 17
Southern Miss 21 TULANE 14
Arkansas 39 MISSISSIPPI STATE 21
OKLAHOMA 45 Texas Tech 28
Marshall 38 OHIO 31
UTAH 37 Brigham Young 26
CLEMSON 17 South Carolina 10
North Texas 26 MID TENNESSEE ST 25
OREGON STATE 34 Oregon 29
Fresno State 34 SAN JOSE STATE 31
WASHINGTON STATE 36 Washington 27
New Mexico State 38 IDAHO 37
BOWLING GREEN 61 Eastern Mich 21
UL-Lafayette 35 UL-MONROE 31
HAWAII 40 Cincinnati 33

------------------------------------------------------------

Historical Trends for NFL
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(sides based on games since 1994, totals based on games since 1996)
Sides: November 24, 2002

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Take Carolina Panthers
Domination by home team 11-3-1 79%

Totals: November 24, 2002

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Take UNDER
Domination by Unders 11-4 73%
Domination by Unders at Carolina Panthers 6-1 86%

------------------------------------------------------------

Historical Trends for College Football
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(based on games since 1995)
Sides: November 21, 2002

Pittsburgh at Miami-Florida
Take Miami-Florida
Domination by home team 6-1 86%
Domination at home by Miami-Florida 3-0 100%
Domination by favorite at Miami-Florida 3-0 100%

Sides: November 23, 2002

Akron at Kent State
Take Akron
Domination by visiting team 4-0 100%

Arkansas at Mississippi State
Take Mississippi State
Domination by underdog 7-0 100%
Domination by underdog at Mississippi State 3-0 100%

Boston College at Temple
Take Temple
Domination by home team 6-1 86%
Domination at home by Temple 3-0 100%
Domination by underdog at Temple 3-0 100%

Brigham Young at Utah
Take Brigham Young
Domination by visiting team 7-0 100%
Domination on the road by Brigham Young 3-0 100%

Fresno State at San Jose State
Take Fresno State
Domination by visiting team 5-1 83%

Mississippi at Louisiana State
Take Mississippi
Domination on the road by Mississippi 3-0 100%

Stanford at California
Take Stanford
Domination by visiting team 6-1 86%
Domination on the road by Stanford 3-0 100%
Domination by underdog 6-1 86%
Domination by underdog at California 3-0 100%

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Take Texas Tech
Domination by underdog at Oklahoma 3-0 100%

Tulsa at Southern Methodist
Take Southern Methodist
Domination at home by Southern Methodist 3-0 100%

------------------------------------------------------------
Predicted NFL Scores based on Power Ratings
Sunday, November 24, 2002
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34 Minnesota Vikings 23
BALTIMORE RAVENS 26 Tennessee Titans 22
Atlanta Falcons 20 CAROLINA PANTHERS 17
CHICAGO BEARS 28 Detroit Lions 19
Jacksonville Jaguars 13 DALLAS COWBOYS 12
MIAMI DOLPHINS 24 San Diego Chargers 17
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 33 Cleveland Browns 28
Buffalo Bills 28 NEW YORK JETS 27
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 30 Cincinnati Bengals 19
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 Green Bay Packers 17
Kansas City Chiefs 28 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 26
Oakland Raiders 28 ARIZONA CARDINALS 20
St Louis Rams 25 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20
New York Giants 20 HOUSTON TEXANS 10
DENVER BRONCOS 26 Indianapolis Colts 22

Monday, November 25, 2002
Philadelphia Eagles 21 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 20

**BettorsChat** · 11-20-2002, 04:33 PM

PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWERENCE

ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON any college conference home dog with rest and revenge off a win from Game Seven out versus an opponent off a win of 7 or more points.
ATS W-L RECORD S/1980: 25-4 (86%)

This Week Play On: UCLA

NCAA FOOTBALL
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
NORTHWESTERN over Illinois by 6
Unless theres a snowstorm on the North Shore, were figuring that somewhere between 900 and 1100 yards and between 70 and 90 points will hit the stat sheets before this game is over. It appears to us that Illinois is the superior team (Now, theres a revelation) but that doesnt always matter with the Wildcats. If they get their offense in a rhythm, they are nearly impossible to stop, especially for a defense as bad as the Illinis. Illinois suffers hangover from Ohio State OT loss as rested, revenging rival draws blood here.

5* BEST BET 5*
AIR FORCE over San Diego St by 27
The Force can get themselves into a decent bowl with a win here and, judging by San Diego States recent wobbly road performance, that win should happen - with or without SDSU QB Adam Hall. In their last four road games, the Aztecs lost to Idaho (unforgivable), snuck past a then struggling Wyoming team by just four points, lost by 26 to a BYU club that had been outscored 113-22 in its last three games, and put up two field goals and a safety against New Mexicos 27 ppg defense. Those are hardly the credentials a team needs to win at the Airfield. AFA takes a 16-4-1 ATS mark into this tilt after scoring 35 or more in their last. Now, if you can decipher this militray code you'll cash this ticket: UFA 5-0 ATS G12. Have
at it.

4* BEST BET 4*
Texas Tech over OKLAHOMA by 1
Revenge is the operative word in this Big Twelve South battle. Texas Tech is an impressive 13-2 ATS as a road underdog with revenge while Oklahoma has been unable to fight off avengers, posting a poor 4-16 ATS log as confernece home chalk against an avenging foe. More bad numbers flow in Oklahomas direction when you note that the Sooners are just 4-13 ATS at home off a road win since 1987, including six straight ATS losses in that role. Texas Tech goes to the Big Twelve title game with a win here. Can the Red Raiders beat Texas and Oklahoma back to back? Don't be surprised.

3* BEST BET 3*
LSU over Mississippi by 21
Last year, the Bayou Bengals laid 9.5 to the Rebels on this field and came away humiliated by Eli Manning and the short end of a 35-24 final. This year, LSUs defense is a lot better and Mississippis defense is a lot worse. The Rebels have played four road games this season in which they allowed 42, 42, 48, and 31 points. Gulp. A quick check of our data base tells us that when LSU goes up and over the 28 point mark, the Tigers are 32-14 ATS and that, since 1990, when Ole Miss gives up more than 28, the Rebs are 8-31 ATS. Tigers, with revenge and after being egged here LW, come to play.

NFL FOOTBALL

5* BEST BET 5*
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY by 13
Since this is a non-division game, we expect the Packers to be a little more intense. As an underdog off a division loss, the Packers are 17-7 ATS including a perfect 8-0 ATS when they allowed 30 or more in the division defeat. But this won't be an easy win for Green Bay, if they do win it. Tampa pays third in a row at home, a bummer for teams off wins in the first two legs against a foe off a loss (now 9-28 ATS since 1980). We're Packer backers here.

4* BEST BET 4*
Buffalo over NY JETS by 10
Suddenly everone is wondering if something has gone amok in Wingville. Lord knows, Bledsoe has the weapons to put points on the board but, in the last two games, the Bills have managed just two touchdowns. The Jets are playing with new passion, but Buffalo revenge from a season opening OT home loss and New York's home chalk record (3-11 ATS vs foe off a loss) and 1-6 ATS mark vs revenge speaks volumes. Buffalo pays the bills with a big win today.

3* BEST BET 3*
NY Giants over HOUSTON by 14
Jacksonville had the Texans flat on the mat before Coughlin eased up but we don't think that will be the case here. The Giants bring the second best scoring defense in the league to this game They're also 6-1 ATS as favs against the AFC, 13-3-1 ATS off a home win and 5-1 ATS as non-division road chalk. Lay it with the G-Men.

NFL TOTALS
DOLPHINS 1-4 2-3 3-9 UNDER vs .600 > opp 5* BEST BET UNDER

SAINTS 4-0 5-1 4-0 OVER as fav of 5 > pts 4* BEST BET OVER

PANTHERS 2-3 0-5 1-5 UNDER w/Revenge 3* BEST BET UNDER

**BettorsChat** · 11-21-2002, 07:51 PM

bump

**BettorsChat** · 11-23-2002, 10:44 AM

Kelso Sturgeon

COLLEGE BEST BETS
DUKE BY 13
ILLINOIS BY 24
LOUISVILLE BY 17
BALL STATE BY 35
TCU by 15
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 10
BOISE STATE By 15
HAWAII BY 25

NFL BEST BETS
NEW ENGLAND by 24
JACKSONVILLE by 10
NEW ORLEANS by 13
PITTSBURGH by 7
KC by `14
NEW ORLEANS OVER 55

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