Trends .. Saturday

[Spark]

Hot pitchers
-- Giants were 9-5 in Williams' last fourteen '04 starts.
-- Phillies were 3-1 in Floyd's '04 starts (1-0, 3.75).
-- Ramirez was 1-0, 1.48 in three home starts last year; his season was cut short by an injury in May.
-- Astros were 7-2 in Backe's '04 starts, 4-0 at home (3-0, 1.50); he was 2-0, 0.69 against the Reds.
-- Indians are 7-3 in Westbrook's last ten starts on road he lost tough 1-0 game at White Sox Monday. Lefty Ledezma was 3-2, 4.21 in seven '04 starts for Detroit.
-- Johnson is 4-1, 2.10 in his last five starts; he won his last four home outings.
-- Wells was on winning side in ten of last fourteen road starts; he is 5-1, 4.50 in his last eight starts overall. Jays are 5-1 in Halladay's last six SkyDome starts.
-- Garland was 3-0, 3.91 in his last three '04 starts, but Sox lost eight of his last ten road starts- he was 3-1 vs Twins last season.

Cold pitchers
-- Colorado was 4-9 in Wright's last 13 '04 starts, 1-4 in his last five on road, but he was 2-0, 3.75 vs Giants.
-- Suppan was 1-3, 7.66 in his last four regular season starts, but St Louis won seven of his last nine at home.
-- Nationals are 1-6 in last seven Hernandez road starts he is 1-4, 5.25 his last five starts overall. Moehler has made 129 big league starts, but none since starting three games for Houston two years ago- he has 50-56 mark in the major leagues, mostly with Detroit.
-- Heilman was 0-2, 4.57 in four '04 starts; for career, he has 3-10 record in nineteen starts.
-- Wilson was 0-2, 7.54 in four '04 starts vs Reds.
-- Vazquez got knocked out in second inning Monday by Cubs, allowing seven runs on 42 pitches. Erickson was 1-4, 7.33 in six '04 big league starts.
-- Perez is 1-5, 5.40 in his last six starts. Williams gave up six runs in 3.1 IP at Coors Monday
-- Chen was 1-1, 3.83 in seven '04 starts for Orioles; he gave up three up in 4.2 IP at Bronx Sept. 5.
-- A's are 2-11 in Zito's last thirteen road starts. Nomo was 1-11, 9.80 in his last fourteen '04 starts.
-- Twins scored total of 11 runs in losing Radke's last four regular season starts (0-2, 4.91).
-- Moyer is 1-4, 5.80 his last six starts, but he did won season opener vs Twins, ending five-start home losing streak. Astacio started eight games in last two seasons, throwing total of 45.1 innings.
-- Gregg is fill-in starter for injured Escobar; Angels had only six pitchers start all of 2004. Lima is 0-4, 8.53 in his last four road starts.


Totals
-- Under is 6-2 in Sheets' last eight starts, but 2-6 in last eight starts by Zambrano.
-- Over is 7-2 in Williams' last nine home starts. Total of 60 runs were scored in first three Colorado games. SF allowed 24 runs in its last three games.
-- Under was 3-1 in prospect Floyd's four '04 starts.
-- Under is 3-1 in last four Hernandez starts.
-- Under was 6-3 in Ramirez' '04 starts for Atlanta; last three Brave games stayed under total. .
-- Over is 14-4 in Wilson's last 18 starts.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in Vazquez' last thirteen regular season starts; Snakes scored 26 runs in first four games.
-- Under is 9-3 in Perez' last dozen starts, 2-6 in last 8 starts by Woody Williams.
-- Under is 7-3 in Westbrook's last ten starts.
-- Sunday night's over was first over in last eleven starts by Randy Johnson.
-- Over is 14-4 in Wells' last eighteen starts.
-- Over was 12-6 in Nomo's last eighteen starts. Under is 4-0 in Oakland games this season.
-- Over was 8-4 in Garland's last dozen starts, 3-1 in his four starts vs Minnesota.
-- Moyer's last three home starts stayed under total.


Hot teams
-- Brewers scored 25 runs in winning first three games.
-- Braves won last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Dodgers won their last three games, scoring 24 runs.
-- White Sox are only 3-1 team in American League.
-- Oakland allowed eight runs in four games (2-2).

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost last three games, allowing 19 runs.
-- Mets are 0-4 for first time since 1964.
-- Phillies lost last three games, as their bullpen blew up in last two- they blew 5-1 lead Friday.
-- Pirates got first win last night, but have still scored a total of just seven runs in four games.

[Spark]

Game of Day
Brewers (Sheets) @ Cubs (Zambrano)-- Brewers are 3-0, in first place, scoring 8.3 rpg. Sheets allowed two runs in seven IP in Opening Day win at Pittsburgh; he has 2.83 RA in his last seven starts. Zambano did not finish fifth inning in first start Monday, after having had a 7-0 second inning lead- he got thrown out of game after he was removed in fifth inning, .

[Spark]

12 of the 14 American League teams are 2-2, including all five of the teams in the AL East. White Sox are 3-1, Texas is 1-3, everyone else is stuck in the middle.

12) Giants have 6-0 lead in top of 7th, but Colorado comes up with eight in 7th, the biggest Rockies' inning on road ever, before they blow lead in 9th, 10-8. I am telling you, there are some terrible bullpens out there.

11) Oakland had terrible bullpen last year, but not any more, as A's are stocked with good young arms. The question for A's is their starting pitching, and can they score enough runs to keep up with the Angels?

10) A's, Giants both won 91 games last year, both did not make playoffs by margin of one game. You get the idea Felipe Alou and his bullpen don't get along well. Colorado announcers were trashing the way he used his relievers last season.

9) Brad Wilkerson of Washington is hitting .588.

8) David DeJesus of Royals is 15 for 29 against the Angels, in his short career.

7) Why aren't there more lefthanded closers?

6) With the way closers have been getting whacked so far in '05, I can see a swing back towards a committee approach to relieving, where a guy who enters in 8th inning can finish, instead of each guy throwing an inning apiece. Makes a lot of sense to stick with hot guy.

5a) I am reading Baseball America Prospects Book, and there are stats regarding each organization's top 30 prospects....I broke down each team's prospects by category, and here is what I found.............

5) Some teams go for high school kids, some for the college kids, some more for Latin players.......the A's have only one high school player in their top 30 guys. Giants and Astros have three each; everyone else has at least five, with Florida having 17, and Twins and Tampa Bay both having 15.

4) Giants have 20 college players, A's and Orioles 19; they prefer more mature players. Dodgers have just 4 college guys, three of whom are junior college guys, and Atlanta surprisingly has just three college players.

3) Seattle has 12 foreign players out of its prospect list; Braves, Phillies, Bronx and Toronto all have ten.

2) The Dodgers'front office is run by one of the former assistants to Billy Beane, but they haven't changed to an A's-type philosophy, as 23 of their 30 top guys are either foreigners or high school kids; Oakland has just six of their top 30 in those categories.

1) San Diego has the oddest mix of guys, as seven of their top 30 were acquired in trades, with the other 23 divided almost evenly amongst every category, almost like they don't even have a philosophy. They need lot of smallball-type guys for Petco, so they better define the type of player they need, and go after him.

[Spark]

Game of the Day
Rockets @ Suns-- Phoenix had 68 points at the half last night, but lost at redhot Warriors- they split last six home games, with one loss 127-107 to Rockets, a loss that was avenged last Sunday with 91-78 Suns win at Compac Center. Houston lost three of last four games but has Ming back in lineup now, and they didn't play last night, while Suns were in Oakland.


Elsewhere, Celtics won three of last four games, are 6-2 in last eight road games; home side won first two games vs nets this year. Jersey won ten of last thirteen games, with last three going over- they covered four of last five.

Philly won three in row, eight of last 12; 13 of the last 18 76er games stayed under the total. Home side won both their games vs Wiz this year. Wizards lost fourth in row last night at Indiana, scoring just 90 ppg during the skid.

Hawks had 47-33 lead at half in Toronto last night, still managed to lose their 14th in row. 10 of last 13 Atlanta games went over total. No chance Minnesota takes this game lightly, since Garnett is from nearby South Carolina should have lot of people in sparse crowd.

Cavaliers lost third in row, 16th in last 24 games in Philly last night; six of their last nine games went over- change in coaches hasn't worked. Milwaukee lost last eight road games (2-6 vs spread). Home side won all three games in series this year; Cavs won 104-87 Jan 30.

Bulls won 11th game in last 12 tries last night at MSG; 5 of their last six games went over total. Chicago covered four of its last five at home. Toronto is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 road games, but is 1-5 vs spread in its first game after their last six wins.

Mavericks won 12 of last 15 games, are coming off big win over Spurs Thursday; they won first two games this year vs Jazz by 18,23 points. Utah is 4-5 last nine games they shot 54.8% from floor in win at New Orleans last night, so at least they're still trying, but are 3-8 vs spread in game following their last eleven wins.

Sonics got waxed at home by Lakers last night, third loss in row; they're 1-8 vs spread last nine games. Denver is juggernaut, winning 20 of last 22 games, with big win at Target Center last night, holding Wolves to 38.6% from floor. Nuggets won their last six games (5-1 vs spread).

Duncan-less Spurs lost last six road games (0-6 against spread); they lost by 36 in Dallas Thursday, night after a 91-82 over win over these Clippers, who are home for first time in 15 days, and are 5-1 in last six at Staples. Last six Spur games all stayed under the total.

[Spark]

NBA TrendsSaturday, April 9th

Boston at New Jersey (-6.5), 1:05 ET
Boston - 4-14 ATS after shooting 50% or better on 10 or more 3's
New Jersey - 9-5 ATS vs. Boston

Philadelphia at Washington, 7:05 ET
Philadelphia - 2-8-1 ATS away when they & opponent have no rest
Washington - 8-2 Over vs. Philadelphia

Minnesota (-8.5) at Atlanta (194), 7:05 ET
Minnesota - 1-5 ATS as road favorite of 6.5-to-12 pts.
Atlanta - 33-15 ATS Home with revenge for a loss by 10 or more pts

Milwaukee at Cleveland, 7:35 ET
Milwaukee -
Cleveland - 10-6 ATS Home vs. Milwaukee

Toronto (198) at Chicago (-6), 8:35 ET
Toronto - 2-11 ATS vs. teams committing 16 or more TO's/game
Chicago - 16-4 ATS vs. team allowing 99 pts. or more/game

Utah (195) at Dallas (-14), 8:35 ET
Utah - 10-24 ATS with total between 190 and 199.5
Dallas - 13-4 ATS Home off two or more consecutive home wins

Seattle (194) at Denver (-6.5), 7:35 ET
Seattle - 68-35 Over Away vs. Division opponents
Denver - 24-11 ATS Home This Season

Houston (212.5) at Phoenix (-7), 10:05 ET
Houston - 11-2 ATS revenging a home loss
Phoenix - 12-25 ATS as Home Favorite of 6.5-to-12 pts

San Antonio at L.A. Clippers, 10:35 ET
San Antonio - 11-5 Under Away vs. Clippers
L.A. Clippers - 3-6 ATS Home vs. San Antonio

**Denotes Time Change


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Additional Trends:

Saturday, 4/9/2005


BOSTON (41 - 34) at NEW JERSEY (37 - 39) - 4/9/2005, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 9-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 10-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PHILADELPHIA (38 - 37) at WASHINGTON (41 - 34) - 4/9/2005, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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MINNESOTA (40 - 36) at ATLANTA (11 - 64) - 4/9/2005, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) after a division game this season.
MINNESOTA is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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MILWAUKEE (29 - 46) at CLEVELAND (38 - 37) - 4/9/2005, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 8-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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TORONTO (31 - 44) at CHICAGO (43 - 32) - 4/9/2005, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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UTAH (24 - 51) at DALLAS (51 - 24) - 4/9/2005, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season.
UTAH is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
UTAH is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
DALLAS is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season.
DALLAS is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SEATTLE (50 - 25) at DENVER (44 - 31) - 4/9/2005, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season.
DENVER is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games in all games this season.
DENVER is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SEATTLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season.
SEATTLE is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 6-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 7-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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HOUSTON (45 - 31) at PHOENIX (57 - 18) - 4/9/2005, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in home games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-5 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SAN ANTONIO (55 - 20) at LA CLIPPERS (34 - 42) - 4/9/2005, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-5 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[keawe]

Thanks for all this info!!
The way I read, this may take awhile.
Goodluck today Spark!!

[Spark]

hahaha some more for you to read ..
TRENDS
Saturday, April 9th

National League:

Milwaukee at Chicago, 2:20 ET
Ben Sheets (R) vs. Carlos Zambrano (R)

Sheets - 11-4 TSR in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons
Zambrano - Cubs 8-17 after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons

Colorado at San Fransisco, 4:05 ET
Jamey Wright (R) vs. Jerome Williams (R)

Wright - Colorado 5-22 in road games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 3 seasons
Williams - San Fransisco 15-5 at home vs. Colorado last 3 seasons

**Philadelphia at St. Louis, 2:15 ET
Gavin Floyd (R) vs. Jeff Suppan (R)

Floyd - Philadelphia 110-67 Over in road games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 3 seasons
Suppan - 35-16 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons

Washington at Florida, 6:05 ET
Livan Hernandez (R) vs. Brian Moehler (R)

Hernandez - Washington 10-4 after a loss by 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons
Moehler - Florida 17-25 after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons

NY Mets at Atlanta, 7:05 ET
Aaron Heilman (R) vs. Horacio Ramirez (R)

Heilman - n/a
Ramirez - Atlanta 15-5 vs. the Mets at home over the last 3 seasons

Cincinnati at Houston, 7:05 ET
Paul Wilson (R) vs. Brandon Backe (R)

Wilson - 9-1 Over TSR away in night games over the last 2 seasons
Backe - Houston 14-4 vs. Cincinnati at home over the last 3 seasons

LA Dodgers at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Scott Erickson (R) vs. Javier Vazquez (R)

Erickson - Los Angeles 14-7 at Arizona over the last 3 seasons
Vazquez - 1-11 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons

Pittsburgh at San Diego, 10:05 ET
Oliver Perez (L) vs. Woody Williams (R)

Perez - 9-0 TSR in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons
Williams - San Diego 2-6 vs. Pittsburgh at home over the last 3 seasons

American League:

Cleveland at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Jake Westbrook (R) vs. Wilfredo Ledezma (L)

Westbrook - Cleveland 26-11 Over after a win by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons
Ledezma - Detroit 10-22 at home after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons

Baltimore at NY Yankees, 1:05 ET
Bruce Chen (L) vs. Randy Johnson (L)

Chen - 20-8 TSR against division opponents since 1997
Johnson - 5-10 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons

Boston at Toronto, 1:05 ET
David Wells (L) vs. Roy Halladay (R)

Wells - 36-15 TSR in road games against division opponents since 1997
Halladay - Toronto 1-9 at home in April over the last 2 seasons

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 6:15 ET
Barry Zito (L) vs. Hideo Nomo (R)

Zito - Oakland 31-12 after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons
Nomo - 4-11 TSR at home in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota, 7:10 ET
Jon Garland (R) vs. Brad Radke (R)

Garland - 15-3 Under TSR on artificial turf since 1997
Radke - 10-18 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons

**Texas at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Pedro Astacio (R) vs. Jamie Moyer (L)

Astacio - Texas 49-53 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons
Moyer - 10-4 vs. Texas since 1997 (TSR = 16-8)

Kansas City at Anaheim, 10:05 ET
Jose Lima (R) vs Kevin Gregg (R)

Lima - 18-6 TSR on grass over the last 2 seasons
Gregg - Anaheim 12-2 Under at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last 3 seasons

[Lsufan]

Spark,

Thanks for all the hard work you do for all of us.

[Spearit]

Spark - Just Read Up On Johnson And The Yanks. If I Read This I Would Have Lowered My Bet - We Got Lucky However On This Pick It Seems Now. I Also Have Chi W Sox With The Fades Against. I See Nomo Struggling As Your Trend Says So I Feel The Percentages May Be More In My Favor. I Am, However, Not A Capper And Can Be On The Computer Looking At Everything Within One Hour. Your Trends May Be Far Back As This Is On Page Three Now. It'll Bump Up And Should Stay In The Forefront For Would Be Bettors. Thank You