Baseball Betting Strategy???

[lowrider66]

I'm pretty new to this site and have found some great information to help with my NBA and College plays. I'm going to be betting baseball for the first time this year and was wondering if some of you experienced guys could give some advice on sound betting strategies.

I've figured out that I need to follow some of the cappers on this board like Goldvike, 3 Wisemen, Rjermey and Chuck for bases, but what type of betting strategy do I use so I don't get burned. Its tempting to bet on Aces and loaded teams like the Yankees, Braves and Red Sox, but does laying -250 pay off over the season?

Do unit plays work well? or should I play a consistant amount? In hoops and football I play a steady amount.

Thanks in advance and I can't wait for opening day!

[frankb03]

As I stated in another thread. Never lay more than -150 unless you hook it up with another team in a parlay.

Play big favorites does not pay off in the long run. You have to hit over 71% with a -250 to break even.

Since you've never bet baseball. The best stategy I can give you. Start small. Real small. Get a feel for betting baseball

[lowrider66]

Thanks frank! Nice night last night... keep it up in the nba!

[RJeremy]

Unlike Frank, I'll actually go up to -170 or -180 at times, depending on the situation. I will also throw some RL games in there and parlay some -250 favs together.

When I first started betting baseball about 6 years ago, I thought the same as you. Just bet on pitchers, take all the 20 game winners, and you can't lose. OH SO WRONG!!!!! First of all those guys like Johnson, Clemens, El Dooky, Pedro, and Schilling were always -270 to -340. If you really look at it they might be 20-6 on the year, or whatever, but what about the games they had no decisions on that just because they didn't get the loss, you still lost the bet.

Don't bet the pitchers in MLB, bet the teams.

Also, there is a rule due to the streaks of teams. It's not rare to see teams win 10 in a row or lose 10 in a row, so some people bet on teams that have 3 wins in a row, or bet against a team that has 3 losses in a row. Keep betting on or against them until they break that streak.

GL, and follow the board and you'll do fine!!!

[frankb03]

When I first started betting baseball about 6 years ago, I thought the same as you. Just bet on pitchers, take all the 20 game winners, and you can't lose. OH SO WRONG!!!!! First of all those guys like Johnson, Clemens, El Dooky, Pedro, and Schilling were always -270 to -340. If you really look at it they might be 20-6 on the year, or whatever, but what about the games they had no decisions on that just because they didn't get the loss, you still lost the bet.

Also lets not forget the way baseball is played today. Pitchers pitch to a certain pitch count then they are pulled. How many time in the past few seasons have we seen big favorites yank their pitcher in the 8th only to watch the 'closer' blow the lead.

[ChuckLazar]

Don't bet the pitchers in MLB, bet the teams.

RJ posted this quote, and I want to add to it.
I bet the pitchers all year, and did exceptionally well. But the trick is to know what team they pitch good against and which team they don't. You have to look at their head to head records and past statistics against teams they play and also against pitchers they face. If a pitcher that is over 150 and you really feel that there is no way in hell that they will lose against another pitcher or team, then like Frank said, you have to find another play you like and parlay the Moneyline.

Other than that some pitchers get on hot streaks every year and will stay on them. An example of last year was Roger Clemens, who came out of retirement and won his first 10 starts. But you also have to look into the fact that he played on a team that can score lots of runs.

On the other side of that theory, was Arizonias Randy Johnson, a dominant pitcher whos' team hardly scored runs, and he lost alot of close games. This year Johnson went to the New York Yankees, who should be able to score runs for him and make him a dominate pitcher again.

Get the USA Todays Sports Weekly- it has great information during the year..

[tdickson]

ki66

I saw this some where-Bet on the home team, last game of series, to avoid the sweep. Frank might have some numbers on that.

[frankb03]

On the other side of that theory, was Arizonias Randy Johnson, a dominant pitcher whos' team hardly scored runs, and he lost alot of close games. This year Johnson went to the New York Yankees, who should be able to score runs for him and make him a dominate pitcher again.

GREAT POINT about Randy Johnson. He/Arizona burned the cash last season.

[RJeremy]

Also lets not forget the way baseball is played today. Pitchers pitch to a certain pitch count then they are pulled. How many time in the past few seasons have we seen big favorites yank their pitcher in the 8th only to watch the 'closer' blow the lead.

This is exactly right. These pitchers that go 20-6 don't pitch only 26 games. They pitch like 40 or 45, and just like Frank said above, some douchebag reliever comes in and blows the game, and the reliever gets the L, but the starter receives nothing.

[lowrider66]

...just like Frank said above, some douchebag reliever comes in and blows the game, and the reliever gets the L, but the starter receives nothing.

Great advice... yeah the starter gets a nd, but you get the loss.

Thanks!

[moondog22]

Frank you got any figures to back this up, a buddy of mine says to play the over all the time when Clevelad & Detroit play each other.

[RJeremy]

Frank you got any figures to back this up, a buddy of mine says to play the over all the time when Clevelad & Detroit play each other.

$500 bucks says he does!!!!

[moondog22]

$500 bucks says he does!!!!

No bet. already got it on Private Boots in the 6th.

[ChuckLazar]

Great advice... yeah the starter gets a nd, but you get the loss.

Thanks!

That's why you also have to follow the teams relievers so to take the team with a hot or good one. I won alot of games last year on LA Dodgers, they have one of the best. And being from Pgh, I won a ton of $$$ betting against the Pirates, they went on streaks were they lost 15-20 games in a row. But when they acquired Jose Mesa after the All Star break, I jumped all over them and they were one of the hottest dogs to win and go on their own winning streak!

[lowrider66]

I won a ton of $$$ betting against the Pirates, they went on streaks were they lost 15-20 games in a row. But when they acquired Jose Mesa after the All Star break, I jumped all over them and they were one of the hottest dogs to win and go on their own winning streak!

I've never considered following relievers, but that does make a lot of sense.

I'm from Seattle and when Mesa was trying to close for the M's he sucked... i'm glad he could close for somebody. And that he helped you build your bankroll