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Originally posted by xmen911what ever happened to ripples fades? where do i find them?
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dr bob Free Analysis
Free Analysis
Saturday, March 26
NCAA
Louisville (-8) 76 West Virginia 65
West Virginia is now 12-3 since inserting versatile, high scoring, big man Kevin Pittsnogle into the starting lineup on February 5th and they have played at a level 6 points better since that date than they did prior to Pittsnogle’s increased role. The Mountaineers have still played over their heads in upset wins over Wake Forest and Texas Tech and they qualify in a negative 5-25 ATS situation that worked in going against Wisconsin-Milwaukee in their 14 point round 3 loss to Illinois. West Virginia applies to a 2-19 ATS subset of that angle, so they aren’t likely to play up to their normal standards in this game. Louisville has been the best team in the Tournament so far, but the Mounties are still underrated and my ratings favor Louisville by just 6 points in this game. The situation is worth 5 points, so I’ll still lean with Louisville despite the negative line value.
Illinois (-4 ½) 74 Arizona 68
Arizona is now 41-14 ATS as an underdog the last 15 years (34-7 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points), but Illinois also raises their level of play based on the quality of opposition and they’ve routinely beaten good teams by double-digit margins this season. The Illini are 11-1-1 ATS this season when favored by less than 13 points and they have won by 10 points or more in all 6 games against the best teams that they’ve faced this season. The Illini beat Wake Forest by 18 points, Cincinnati by 22 points, Michigan State by 13 points and Wisconsin by margins of 10, 11, and 11 points in their 3 meetings with the Badgers. The correlation between the difficulty of opponent (adjusted for site) and Illinois’ game ratings suggest that they’ll play almost 4 points better than their average game against a team of Arizona’s caliber and that would result in a fair line of 9 points (it would be 5 points using all games for each team for the entire season). Arizona, however, does play better against better competition too, but not to the extent that Illinois has this season, so I’ll call for a 6 point win for the Illini and a game in which I’d rather not go against either team.
NBA
Miami (-8 ½) 105 CHARLOTTE 90
Bad teams usually let down after a victory, especially late in the season, and the Bobcats are only 4-8-1 ATS this season after a victory. Therefore, I don’t expect the best from Charlotte in this game after winning in Orlando on Thursday night. Charlotte applies to a negative 33-82-2 ATS home letdown situation and they just lost by 15 points at home earlier in the week to Phoenix after beating Orlando at home. My concern is Miami playing this game the night after their showdown win over the Suns, as the Heat are 0-3 ATS this season as a road favorite the night after a victory. However, my ratings do favor Miami by 10 points, even after adjusting for the lack of rest, and I would take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 8 points or less.
DENVER (-6) 114 Sacramento 103
The Nuggets have been rolling since George Karl took over as head coach and whipped them into shape. Denver is 20-5 straight up and 18-7 ATS under Karl and the Nuggets qualify in a solid 140-68-6 ATS home favorite momentum situation tonight. However, I’m reluctant to make Denver a Best Bet due to numerous injuries along their frontline – starters Camby and Martin and backups Elson and Russell. The lack of a frontline won’t hurt as much against a Kings team without starting center Brad Miller, so I’ll still consider Denver a strong opinion tonight.
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