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Sunday NCAA games
Since '99, #10 seeds are 10-2 vs spread in 2nd round games (9-3 SU); NC State lost in this round last year to Vandy, but has senior star (Hodge), and rallied from 15 down vs Charlotte in first round. UConn won eight of last nine second round games, including 77-74 over Wolfpack three years ago- they're 8-1 vs spread, as a favorite in all nine of those games. Huskies banged up at PG; game was bet down from 4 to 3 yesterday.
Georgia Tech-Louisville is game of day, with winner a surprise fave over #1 seed Washington next week? #4 seeds covered six of last 20 second round games, but Louisville won ten games in row, 18 of last 19, and are hungry for first Sweet 16 since '97. Tech was in finals last year; they'd be higher seeds, but Elder's injury sent them on February swoon. Cardinals will need to shoot better than Friday's 6 for 22 on 3's. Tech held George Washington scoreless for over 6:00 in 2nd half Friday.
Favorites are 19-7-1 in last 27 games between #2-7 seeds; oddly, 2's have fared way better vs 7's than 10's Team that won Big 12 tournament has made Elite 8 in each of last three years, winning second round game by 13,9,18 pts. Have respect for spunky Salukis, who are 9-1 in last ten games and is dog for first time in last 43 days. Sutton is 8-4 vs spread last 12 tourney games as favorite, but has just Sweet 16's since '95. Senior unit for Cowboys will be tough out for Southern Illinois.
#1 seeds who are double digit second round favorites are 15-19 vs spread since '91. #9's are 7-8 vs spread their last 15 second round games (#8's are 15-5 their last 20), so 1's generally do better vs 9's. Iowa State is familiar to Roy Williams, having faced his Kansas clubs a lot; Cyclones are 11-3 in last 14 games; only one of their eight Big 12 losses was by more than 13 points. North Carolina lost in this round last year, has just one Sweet 16 since '98. #1 seed in east covered four of last 11 second round games.
Vermont used its bench for total of nine minutes in OT game Friday, as all five starters played 40+ minutes, in slow-paced game. Will Michigan State use its superior athletes and press (they did for while vs ODU)? Izzo is 5-0 in last five second round games, winning by 7,8,12 16,22 pts. Dogs are 9-4 vs spread in 2nd round games involving #4,5 seeds last 3+ years, Is Vermont on run like Loyola Marymount in '90? They'll have crowd in Worcester behind them. If Spartans press, hard to see Catamounts lasting forty minutes with them.
#4 seed is 6-14 vs spread in second round since '99, a bad stat for Florida, which has won eight games in row and survived blowing 20-pt lead to Ohio Friday; their starting F Walsh is from Philly, so facing Villanova club that is on 8-1 run adds little bit to game. Wildcats held 34-11 halftime lead vs New Mexico, then missed 19 of first 22 shots in second half, and had to hold on for win Gators trying to become first SEC team (other than the Kentucky team) since Miss State in '96, to win tourney in SEC, then make Sweet 16.
Mississippi State is athletic enough to hang with Duke, but have to question mental toughness of team that lost at Alabama by 49, then didn't win rematch at home, vs Duke team that won last seven second round games, with four of last six wins by 13+ pts. MSU's Roberts is best player on floor, but four of last seven State losses are by 14+ pts. Duke allowing 61 ppg last four games. #9 seeds 7-8 vs spread in recent second round games
NCAA Tips:
Bucknell, +9.5-- Bo Ryan is good tourney coach, but Badgers just 1-2 in second round under him, with only win 61-60 over #13 seed Tulsa in '03. Bucknell beat Kansas, despite shooting just 8-31 on treys- they can hang in here, vs Badger club that forced only eight turnovers vs Northern Iowa. Both coaches have won D-III national titles; total is very low (115-ish), expect Bucknell to cover. 20 flannerys on the Bison, +9.5.
Since '99, #10 seeds are 10-2 vs spread in 2nd round games (9-3 SU); NC State lost in this round last year to Vandy, but has senior star (Hodge), and rallied from 15 down vs Charlotte in first round. UConn won eight of last nine second round games, including 77-74 over Wolfpack three years ago- they're 8-1 vs spread, as a favorite in all nine of those games. Huskies banged up at PG; game was bet down from 4 to 3 yesterday.
Georgia Tech-Louisville is game of day, with winner a surprise fave over #1 seed Washington next week? #4 seeds covered six of last 20 second round games, but Louisville won ten games in row, 18 of last 19, and are hungry for first Sweet 16 since '97. Tech was in finals last year; they'd be higher seeds, but Elder's injury sent them on February swoon. Cardinals will need to shoot better than Friday's 6 for 22 on 3's. Tech held George Washington scoreless for over 6:00 in 2nd half Friday.
Favorites are 19-7-1 in last 27 games between #2-7 seeds; oddly, 2's have fared way better vs 7's than 10's Team that won Big 12 tournament has made Elite 8 in each of last three years, winning second round game by 13,9,18 pts. Have respect for spunky Salukis, who are 9-1 in last ten games and is dog for first time in last 43 days. Sutton is 8-4 vs spread last 12 tourney games as favorite, but has just Sweet 16's since '95. Senior unit for Cowboys will be tough out for Southern Illinois.
#1 seeds who are double digit second round favorites are 15-19 vs spread since '91. #9's are 7-8 vs spread their last 15 second round games (#8's are 15-5 their last 20), so 1's generally do better vs 9's. Iowa State is familiar to Roy Williams, having faced his Kansas clubs a lot; Cyclones are 11-3 in last 14 games; only one of their eight Big 12 losses was by more than 13 points. North Carolina lost in this round last year, has just one Sweet 16 since '98. #1 seed in east covered four of last 11 second round games.
Vermont used its bench for total of nine minutes in OT game Friday, as all five starters played 40+ minutes, in slow-paced game. Will Michigan State use its superior athletes and press (they did for while vs ODU)? Izzo is 5-0 in last five second round games, winning by 7,8,12 16,22 pts. Dogs are 9-4 vs spread in 2nd round games involving #4,5 seeds last 3+ years, Is Vermont on run like Loyola Marymount in '90? They'll have crowd in Worcester behind them. If Spartans press, hard to see Catamounts lasting forty minutes with them.
#4 seed is 6-14 vs spread in second round since '99, a bad stat for Florida, which has won eight games in row and survived blowing 20-pt lead to Ohio Friday; their starting F Walsh is from Philly, so facing Villanova club that is on 8-1 run adds little bit to game. Wildcats held 34-11 halftime lead vs New Mexico, then missed 19 of first 22 shots in second half, and had to hold on for win Gators trying to become first SEC team (other than the Kentucky team) since Miss State in '96, to win tourney in SEC, then make Sweet 16.
Mississippi State is athletic enough to hang with Duke, but have to question mental toughness of team that lost at Alabama by 49, then didn't win rematch at home, vs Duke team that won last seven second round games, with four of last six wins by 13+ pts. MSU's Roberts is best player on floor, but four of last seven State losses are by 14+ pts. Duke allowing 61 ppg last four games. #9 seeds 7-8 vs spread in recent second round games
NCAA Tips:
Bucknell, +9.5-- Bo Ryan is good tourney coach, but Badgers just 1-2 in second round under him, with only win 61-60 over #13 seed Tulsa in '03. Bucknell beat Kansas, despite shooting just 8-31 on treys- they can hang in here, vs Badger club that forced only eight turnovers vs Northern Iowa. Both coaches have won D-III national titles; total is very low (115-ish), expect Bucknell to cover. 20 flannerys on the Bison, +9.5.
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