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Saturday NCAA games
Underdog is 18-8 vs spread in last 26 second round games, involing a #3 seed vs #6 seed; Texas Tech was sharper team in first round, shooting 61.5% from floor vs young UCLA squad, while Gonzaga trailed at half vs #14 seed Winthrop. Knight looking for first Sweet 16 since '94. Zags on 12-game win streak; they split pair vs Big 12 this year, both on road, losing by hoop at Missouri, beating Oklahoma State by three points.
#8's covered 15 of their last 19 second round games (all vs #1's); Pacific is only 8-seed to advance this year Tigers are 23-1 last 24 games, have seven seniors, are 14-0 if they score 71+ pts. Washington won seven of last eight games; #1 seed in West is 0-5 vs spread last five years in second round (2-3 SU), with two of last three years, their game going double overtime. Of the seven #1 seeds who lost in second round since 1996, four of them lost in the west region.
Utah has one great player in Bogut, stellar center- they took 290 more foul shots, grabbed 343 more boards than their opponents. Oklahoma is 8-1 in last nine tilts; they will use multiple people to bang, harass, disrupt 7-foot center Bogut, who had his way vs UTEP in first round. Sooners are 3-7 if they allow 68+ pts, but they held high-scoring Niagara to lowest total in 84-67 win. Would be shocked if Utah beat Sooners in this game.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee coach Pearl put himself through college as student manager at BC; his Panthers squad won last eight games, 18 of last 19, is 6-1 vs spread as dog this year, and is in Cleveland, Horizon League city; they start four juniors and a senior, are +112 in TO's, and hold foes to 40.5% from floor. That's good news. Bad news is that Boston College is having great season and pounds ball inside, where they have advantage vs Panthers. #4 seeds covered just six of last 19 second round games. #12 seeds are 4-2 vs spread last three years, in their second round contests.
#1 seeds who are double digit second round favorites are 14-19 vs spread since '91. #9's are 7-7 vs spread their last 14 second round games (#8's are 15-4 their last 19), so 1's generally do better vs 9's. Nevada was in Sweet 16 last year, but had NBA player (Snyder) to carry them; they're 10-1 last 11 games- their only loss by more than eight pts all year was 85-52 at Kansas, as Jayhawks avenged loss from previous year. Six of last eight Illinois wins are by 12+ points.
See below for pick on this game. I expect Arizona and UAB to have track meet in Boise. Blazers will attack for 40 minutes; Arizona will be glad to run and gun with them. UAB won six of last seven games, but #11's are 3-9 vs spread in last dozen second round games vs a #3 seed. Stoudamire should have wide eyes after first round struggle vs Utah State, a half court team. UofA won 16 of last 19 games. Blazers upset Kentucky last year in this game, as 10-point underdogs.
Favorite is 18-6-1 vs spread in last 25 games involving 2-seed vs 7-seed, which both 8pm tipoffs are tonight. West Virginia plays style that is hard to prepare for on short notice (1-3-1 defense); they won by 13 in only game vs ACC school (@ NC State). Wake hammered GW by 21, beat Richmond by 17, won at Temple by 3 in their three games vs A-12 teams. Wake won ten of last 12 games. #2 seed in west covered last four years in their second round
Kentucky, Cincinnati do not play, desite being close to each other geographically, so this has added meaning. Coach Huggins lost six of last seven second round tilts, with only win vs #13 seed Kent State in '01. Cincinnati is 0-3 as underdog in NCAA's since '92, but last time they were NCAA dog was four years ago. Kentucky lost in second round last year, but is 11-3 in this round over the last fourteen seasons. #2 seed in Southeast is 0-5 in second round last five years, with all five losses by 8+ pts; they're 1-7 vs spread in this round last eight years, last covering in '98 (Kentucky 88, St Louis 61).
NIT games
Memphis got pass in first round, pounding on America East team whose best player was hurt; tougher test vs former Metro Conference rival Hokies here. Tech lost last four ACC road games by 15,5,20,2 pts, but they did win at Georgia Tech, Miami. Erratic Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games.
DePaul was probably an NCAA team on March 1, but lost three of last four games and fell off bubble; they're 7-1 last eight home games, and help Missouri to under 40% from floor in first round road win. Texas A&M rallied from eight down at half to win their first round game, at home- they won two of last three on the road.
St Joe's was 16-3 in their league, is 4-8 outside of it; they shot just 36.6% in 53-44 first round win (Hofstra) as they shot 26 foul shots, to just nine for visitors. The opponent here is Buffalo, who beat another Philly club, Drexel, in OT in first round, rallying late. Bulls are 9-2 in their last eleven games.
SW Missouri is tough team at home, winning seven in a row in Springfield; they won five of last six games and laid 105 points on Rice in first round rout. Davidson is much better coached team that Rice, though- they won at Missouri, but are 4-7 outside of Southern Conf, with a very tough non-league schedule- they're on road for second straight game, having won 77-62 at VCU.
Wichita State shot 62.5% from floor in 85-69 win over Houston in first round; they trailed by hoop at the half, only their third win in last nine games. Hilltoppers split pair of games vs MVC squads, losing at Evansville, beating Bradley at home, so trip to Wichita could be a tough one. WKU was 3-4 on road in Sun Belt games.
NCAA Tips:
UAB-Arizona, over 158- Expect action to be fast and furious with these two fast-paced outfits; hoping to see guys catching ball out and of nets and firing it back inbounds, as teams run up and down court. After they faced slowish Utah State team Thursday, would expect U of A to be eager. 30 andersons on over 158 here.
I also think Texas Tech is live dog, but personally not interested in making selection against 12-game winning streak that Gonzaga is riding.
Underdog is 18-8 vs spread in last 26 second round games, involing a #3 seed vs #6 seed; Texas Tech was sharper team in first round, shooting 61.5% from floor vs young UCLA squad, while Gonzaga trailed at half vs #14 seed Winthrop. Knight looking for first Sweet 16 since '94. Zags on 12-game win streak; they split pair vs Big 12 this year, both on road, losing by hoop at Missouri, beating Oklahoma State by three points.
#8's covered 15 of their last 19 second round games (all vs #1's); Pacific is only 8-seed to advance this year Tigers are 23-1 last 24 games, have seven seniors, are 14-0 if they score 71+ pts. Washington won seven of last eight games; #1 seed in West is 0-5 vs spread last five years in second round (2-3 SU), with two of last three years, their game going double overtime. Of the seven #1 seeds who lost in second round since 1996, four of them lost in the west region.
Utah has one great player in Bogut, stellar center- they took 290 more foul shots, grabbed 343 more boards than their opponents. Oklahoma is 8-1 in last nine tilts; they will use multiple people to bang, harass, disrupt 7-foot center Bogut, who had his way vs UTEP in first round. Sooners are 3-7 if they allow 68+ pts, but they held high-scoring Niagara to lowest total in 84-67 win. Would be shocked if Utah beat Sooners in this game.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee coach Pearl put himself through college as student manager at BC; his Panthers squad won last eight games, 18 of last 19, is 6-1 vs spread as dog this year, and is in Cleveland, Horizon League city; they start four juniors and a senior, are +112 in TO's, and hold foes to 40.5% from floor. That's good news. Bad news is that Boston College is having great season and pounds ball inside, where they have advantage vs Panthers. #4 seeds covered just six of last 19 second round games. #12 seeds are 4-2 vs spread last three years, in their second round contests.
#1 seeds who are double digit second round favorites are 14-19 vs spread since '91. #9's are 7-7 vs spread their last 14 second round games (#8's are 15-4 their last 19), so 1's generally do better vs 9's. Nevada was in Sweet 16 last year, but had NBA player (Snyder) to carry them; they're 10-1 last 11 games- their only loss by more than eight pts all year was 85-52 at Kansas, as Jayhawks avenged loss from previous year. Six of last eight Illinois wins are by 12+ points.
See below for pick on this game. I expect Arizona and UAB to have track meet in Boise. Blazers will attack for 40 minutes; Arizona will be glad to run and gun with them. UAB won six of last seven games, but #11's are 3-9 vs spread in last dozen second round games vs a #3 seed. Stoudamire should have wide eyes after first round struggle vs Utah State, a half court team. UofA won 16 of last 19 games. Blazers upset Kentucky last year in this game, as 10-point underdogs.
Favorite is 18-6-1 vs spread in last 25 games involving 2-seed vs 7-seed, which both 8pm tipoffs are tonight. West Virginia plays style that is hard to prepare for on short notice (1-3-1 defense); they won by 13 in only game vs ACC school (@ NC State). Wake hammered GW by 21, beat Richmond by 17, won at Temple by 3 in their three games vs A-12 teams. Wake won ten of last 12 games. #2 seed in west covered last four years in their second round
Kentucky, Cincinnati do not play, desite being close to each other geographically, so this has added meaning. Coach Huggins lost six of last seven second round tilts, with only win vs #13 seed Kent State in '01. Cincinnati is 0-3 as underdog in NCAA's since '92, but last time they were NCAA dog was four years ago. Kentucky lost in second round last year, but is 11-3 in this round over the last fourteen seasons. #2 seed in Southeast is 0-5 in second round last five years, with all five losses by 8+ pts; they're 1-7 vs spread in this round last eight years, last covering in '98 (Kentucky 88, St Louis 61).
NIT games
Memphis got pass in first round, pounding on America East team whose best player was hurt; tougher test vs former Metro Conference rival Hokies here. Tech lost last four ACC road games by 15,5,20,2 pts, but they did win at Georgia Tech, Miami. Erratic Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games.
DePaul was probably an NCAA team on March 1, but lost three of last four games and fell off bubble; they're 7-1 last eight home games, and help Missouri to under 40% from floor in first round road win. Texas A&M rallied from eight down at half to win their first round game, at home- they won two of last three on the road.
St Joe's was 16-3 in their league, is 4-8 outside of it; they shot just 36.6% in 53-44 first round win (Hofstra) as they shot 26 foul shots, to just nine for visitors. The opponent here is Buffalo, who beat another Philly club, Drexel, in OT in first round, rallying late. Bulls are 9-2 in their last eleven games.
SW Missouri is tough team at home, winning seven in a row in Springfield; they won five of last six games and laid 105 points on Rice in first round rout. Davidson is much better coached team that Rice, though- they won at Missouri, but are 4-7 outside of Southern Conf, with a very tough non-league schedule- they're on road for second straight game, having won 77-62 at VCU.
Wichita State shot 62.5% from floor in 85-69 win over Houston in first round; they trailed by hoop at the half, only their third win in last nine games. Hilltoppers split pair of games vs MVC squads, losing at Evansville, beating Bradley at home, so trip to Wichita could be a tough one. WKU was 3-4 on road in Sun Belt games.
NCAA Tips:
UAB-Arizona, over 158- Expect action to be fast and furious with these two fast-paced outfits; hoping to see guys catching ball out and of nets and firing it back inbounds, as teams run up and down court. After they faced slowish Utah State team Thursday, would expect U of A to be eager. 30 andersons on over 158 here.
I also think Texas Tech is live dog, but personally not interested in making selection against 12-game winning streak that Gonzaga is riding.
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