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Friday afternoon NCAA games
NC-Charlotte and NC State do not play, despite both being in Tar Heel state, so this means more to UNCC squad, getting to play exalted ACC member. but 49ers lost last three games, not usually good situation to enter tournament in. Wolfpack won five of last seven games. UNCC allows foes to shoot 43.7% from floor, kind of high, and gave up 87.3 ppg last three games, bad news vs Princeton-style offense of NC State.
Florida won its last seven games, covered eight of last 12; they lost in first round last year, but defense is a lot better this year under former Clemson coach Shyatt, an assistant who helped Gators allow just 41% shooting by foes. Ohio U is in tourney for first time in 11 years; they won 13 of last 16 games. MAC teams won three of last four first round games. Bobcats get ball inside, taking 255 more FT's than opponents. SEC teams had awful Thursday, going 1-2 SU, 0-3 vs spread.
SE Louisiana is +123 in turnovers this year, + 121 in foul shots tried, but they don't shoot treys well, and do not have experience vs team like Oklahoma State, who starts four seniors. Cowboys won ten of last 12 games in first round, winning last two by 14,19 pts; in the yrs they were #1 or 2 seed, they won first rounds games by 19,20 and 27 points.
Central Florida played Pitt in NCAA's last year and lost only 53-44; problem is, UConn's defending champ in NCAA, they are +331 on boards, more explosive team- their loss in Big East tourney was their first in last eight games. Central Florida won its last eight games, is +197 on boards, and has bunch of guys who can make 3's, but UConn is in home area. Oddly, Huskies won last 12 first round games, but failed to cover last five in first round, when they were a #1 or 2 seed, as they are
New Mexico is 23-3 with Granger in lineup, won nine games in row, beating Utah twice and has five starters scoring double figures. Villanova won seven of its last eight games (6-2 vs spread); they allow enemy 39.8% shooting from floor and are +109 in turnovers. #5's are having all kinds of troubles vs #12's (6-7 SU since '02) Villanova has no senior starters. Lobos are +254 from foul line, in attempts, so they get ball to star F Granger, who is a future NBA player.
Oakland is 13-18, won the play-in game, now faces a North Carolina club that is 12-1 outside of ACC, with six wins by 28+ pts. #1 seed in East is 3-10 against the spread last 13 years. Carolina struggled last week, as they trailed Clemson by 13 with 9:00 to go, before big rally, then they lost to Tech next day. Oakland lost at Illinois, 31 (trailed by 19 at half), so they shouldn't be in awe, but they're not in same league talent-wise.
St Mary's won four of last five games, Southern Illinois eight of last nine. Salukis start four seniors; most in the know say Salukis, Gonzaga are by far best mid-majors but St Mary's did win one of three vs Zags this season. SIU starts four seniors; their loss in MVC tourney was in game they led by 23 pts in first half.
Friday night NCAA games
Saturday NCAA games
Kentucky, Cincinnati do not play, desite being close to each other geographically, so this has added meaning. Coach Huggins lost six of last seven second round tilts, with only win vs #13 seed Kent State in '01. Cincinnati is 0-3 as underdog in NCAA's since '92, but last time they were NCAA dog was four years ago. Kentucky lost in second round last year, but is 11-3 in this round over the last fourteen seasons.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee coach Pearl put himself through college as student manager at BC; his Panthers squad won last eight games, 18 of last 19, is 6-1 vs spread as dog this year, and is in Cleveland, Horizon League city; they start four juniors and a senior, are +112 in TO's, and hold foes to 40.5% from floor. That's good news. Bad news is that Boston College is having great season and pounds ball inside
Utah has one great player in Bogut, stellar center- they took 290 more foul shots, grabbed 343 more boards than their opponents. Oklahoma is 8-1 in last nine tilts; they will use multiple people to bang, harass, disrupt 7-foot center Bogut, who had his way vs UTEP in first round. Sooners are 3-7 if they allow 68+ pts, but they held high-scoring Niagara to lowest total in 84-67 win. Would be shocked if Utah beat Sooners in this game.
Chattanooga won six of last eight games, but one of losses was 100-68 at Creighton Feb 19; they thrive on getting ball inside, taking 250 more fouls hots, getting 338 more boards than their foes. Mocs turn ball over 17 times a game- they lost game they led by 19 at half early in year, so their guards are suspect.
Wake Forest is #2 seed in West (0-8 vs spread in first round last eight years); they have great guards, and did not lose game (21-0) when allowing less than 81 points Moccasins shoot only 30% beyond arc, 68% from line they are not a team prone to scoring 80+ points. Clubs from Southern Conference lost last six first round tilts, but covered last two, losing by 5,3 pts as #13,15 seed
#8 seed for Texas is lowest of Barnes era'; they lost a pair of forwards during year, one each to injury, grades so they're struggling, losing three of last five, and six of last 11, but they still hold opponents to 39.5% from the floor, with plus-146 rebound margin. I just think its bad idea to back team that lost two rotation guys in season. Dome site actually hurts Texas more, since they shoot lot more treys than the Wolf Pack does.
Nevada lost at home in first round of WAC tourney, snapping a nine-game win streak; they trailed previous game by 11 at half in San Jose, thats almost like a loss. Wolf Pack covered eight of its nine WAC road games and had great success in tournament last year. Kansas beat them by 33, but that was revenge games after the Pack had ambushed Jayhawks in Reno last year.
Arizona lost in first round last year, just their second in first round in last nine years; Wildcats are 9-2 outside Pac-10 this year. Arizona shoots 40.1% on 3's, 77.6% from line, but foes shoot 43.6% from floor. Arizona is 10-2 since Feb 1, losing twice to Washington. Problem is, if Stoudamire has off day, they can lose to anyone.
Utah State won 25 games last year and didn't get into NCAA's, so they won Big West tourney, eliminating all doubt. Aggies are a bully team; 13 of their 15 league wins were by 10+ pts, but they were 2-5 in games that were decided by seven or less pts, and lost non-league games to Central Florida and IPFW. Big West teams covered their last five first round games.
Texas Tech got to finals of Big 12 tourney, but they're 5-5 in last ten games, 8-3 outside of Big 12; Raiders shoot 40.2% from floor, but took 246 less 3's, than its opponents- they shoot 76.4% from line, and took 156 more foul shots than foes. Knight hasn't been to Sweet 16 since 1994; it'll be upset if he makes it here.
UCLA plays on this court every year; they had 4-game win streak snapped when they lost to Oregon State in first round of Pac-10 tourney. Bruins are 7-2 outside the Pac-10, losing only to BC, Michigan State- they've a terrific freshman PG, but still allowed foes to shoot 44% from floor. UCLA covered seven of their nine on road in conference play, and also won at Notre Dame.
West Virginia had great weekend last week to make NCAA's; they play an unusual 1-3-1 defense, which is hard to prepare for, they're 9-3 in last 12 games, and are very well-coached. Morgantown is within driving distance to Cleveland, so lot of WVa fans should get there. Opponents shoot 44.7%, so not good on D.
Creighton also got hot in conference tourney to make this field, but they had extra week to recover/prepare, compared to West Virginia. Bluejays shoot 41.5% on 3-pointers, 73% from line; they can be hurt inside, but have excellent sr PG in McKinney. Creighton won its last eight games, taking all three conference tourney tilts by double figure margins.
Illinois is top-ranked team in country, can name score vs FDU, if they play well; they are superior in all parts of game. Question for Illini is whether they look ahead to second round game vs Texas-Nevada winner.
Fairleigh Dickinson lost 88-57 at Rutgers, but hung in vs some other good teams, losing 89-81 at Arizona St, 87-84 (ot) at Buffalo, 80-66 at Cal- they beat Rider by a hoop. Knights have balanced scoring, but defense allows 45% from floor, so passing team like Illinois is going to get lot of layups. NEC teams are 0-19 in this event since '85, when Green's FDU team lost 59-55 to Michigan; they've covered four of last seven in NCAA.
UAB greatly resembles the old Arkansas teams- they go like hell for 40 minutes, won five of last six games, are +222 in turnover ratio this year and are 9-2 outside of C-USA. Six of their last seven losses are by seven or less pts. They played LSU last year and lost 78-62, so Tigers know how to handle that pressure.
LSU won seven of last eight games, losing OT game to Kentucky in SEC semis, so they're playing well, with a 15-3 spread record in last 18 games. Tigers are 7-4 in non-league games, losing to C-USA's Southern Miss, Houston; they split four OT games this year. SEC has not been best this year, so wary of their teams.
Gonzaga went through the WCC, won regular season and conference tournament with target on its back, so they're tough team, especially after December where it faced Illinois, Washington, Georgia Tech, Okla State. Zags get ball inside, shooting 50.6% from floor, taking 235 more foul shots and grabbing 232 more rebounds.
Winthrop is in tournament for fifth time in seven years; they went 0-4 vs spread in first four visits, losing by 47, 4 (play-in game),24,39 pts. Big South winner covered last two years, losing by 19,21 pts, after going 0-5 vs spread previous five years. Winthrop beat Austin Peay Providence, Weber and East Carolina, and lost by 10 at South Carolina, so they're not an awful team.
NCAA Tips:
Georgia Tech-George Washington, over 148 Underdog Colonials will pressure all over court, Tech will be glad to play at that pace. Anytime you get teams that both like to run, the over is in play, and I think this is one of those games. 30 hewitts on over 148.
Iowa State, +1.5-- Big 11 was not not so good this year, while Big 12 is tough, which makes Iowa State's 10-3 finish, after 0-5 start, an excellent feat; they won at Kansas and Texas, too. Cyclones have excellent guards; they're +129 in turnovers and won five of last seven road games. 20 morgans on Iowa State, +1.5.
NC-Charlotte and NC State do not play, despite both being in Tar Heel state, so this means more to UNCC squad, getting to play exalted ACC member. but 49ers lost last three games, not usually good situation to enter tournament in. Wolfpack won five of last seven games. UNCC allows foes to shoot 43.7% from floor, kind of high, and gave up 87.3 ppg last three games, bad news vs Princeton-style offense of NC State.
Florida won its last seven games, covered eight of last 12; they lost in first round last year, but defense is a lot better this year under former Clemson coach Shyatt, an assistant who helped Gators allow just 41% shooting by foes. Ohio U is in tourney for first time in 11 years; they won 13 of last 16 games. MAC teams won three of last four first round games. Bobcats get ball inside, taking 255 more FT's than opponents. SEC teams had awful Thursday, going 1-2 SU, 0-3 vs spread.
SE Louisiana is +123 in turnovers this year, + 121 in foul shots tried, but they don't shoot treys well, and do not have experience vs team like Oklahoma State, who starts four seniors. Cowboys won ten of last 12 games in first round, winning last two by 14,19 pts; in the yrs they were #1 or 2 seed, they won first rounds games by 19,20 and 27 points.
Central Florida played Pitt in NCAA's last year and lost only 53-44; problem is, UConn's defending champ in NCAA, they are +331 on boards, more explosive team- their loss in Big East tourney was their first in last eight games. Central Florida won its last eight games, is +197 on boards, and has bunch of guys who can make 3's, but UConn is in home area. Oddly, Huskies won last 12 first round games, but failed to cover last five in first round, when they were a #1 or 2 seed, as they are
New Mexico is 23-3 with Granger in lineup, won nine games in row, beating Utah twice and has five starters scoring double figures. Villanova won seven of its last eight games (6-2 vs spread); they allow enemy 39.8% shooting from floor and are +109 in turnovers. #5's are having all kinds of troubles vs #12's (6-7 SU since '02) Villanova has no senior starters. Lobos are +254 from foul line, in attempts, so they get ball to star F Granger, who is a future NBA player.
Oakland is 13-18, won the play-in game, now faces a North Carolina club that is 12-1 outside of ACC, with six wins by 28+ pts. #1 seed in East is 3-10 against the spread last 13 years. Carolina struggled last week, as they trailed Clemson by 13 with 9:00 to go, before big rally, then they lost to Tech next day. Oakland lost at Illinois, 31 (trailed by 19 at half), so they shouldn't be in awe, but they're not in same league talent-wise.
St Mary's won four of last five games, Southern Illinois eight of last nine. Salukis start four seniors; most in the know say Salukis, Gonzaga are by far best mid-majors but St Mary's did win one of three vs Zags this season. SIU starts four seniors; their loss in MVC tourney was in game they led by 23 pts in first half.
Friday night NCAA games
Saturday NCAA games
Kentucky, Cincinnati do not play, desite being close to each other geographically, so this has added meaning. Coach Huggins lost six of last seven second round tilts, with only win vs #13 seed Kent State in '01. Cincinnati is 0-3 as underdog in NCAA's since '92, but last time they were NCAA dog was four years ago. Kentucky lost in second round last year, but is 11-3 in this round over the last fourteen seasons.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee coach Pearl put himself through college as student manager at BC; his Panthers squad won last eight games, 18 of last 19, is 6-1 vs spread as dog this year, and is in Cleveland, Horizon League city; they start four juniors and a senior, are +112 in TO's, and hold foes to 40.5% from floor. That's good news. Bad news is that Boston College is having great season and pounds ball inside
Utah has one great player in Bogut, stellar center- they took 290 more foul shots, grabbed 343 more boards than their opponents. Oklahoma is 8-1 in last nine tilts; they will use multiple people to bang, harass, disrupt 7-foot center Bogut, who had his way vs UTEP in first round. Sooners are 3-7 if they allow 68+ pts, but they held high-scoring Niagara to lowest total in 84-67 win. Would be shocked if Utah beat Sooners in this game.
Chattanooga won six of last eight games, but one of losses was 100-68 at Creighton Feb 19; they thrive on getting ball inside, taking 250 more fouls hots, getting 338 more boards than their foes. Mocs turn ball over 17 times a game- they lost game they led by 19 at half early in year, so their guards are suspect.
Wake Forest is #2 seed in West (0-8 vs spread in first round last eight years); they have great guards, and did not lose game (21-0) when allowing less than 81 points Moccasins shoot only 30% beyond arc, 68% from line they are not a team prone to scoring 80+ points. Clubs from Southern Conference lost last six first round tilts, but covered last two, losing by 5,3 pts as #13,15 seed
#8 seed for Texas is lowest of Barnes era'; they lost a pair of forwards during year, one each to injury, grades so they're struggling, losing three of last five, and six of last 11, but they still hold opponents to 39.5% from the floor, with plus-146 rebound margin. I just think its bad idea to back team that lost two rotation guys in season. Dome site actually hurts Texas more, since they shoot lot more treys than the Wolf Pack does.
Nevada lost at home in first round of WAC tourney, snapping a nine-game win streak; they trailed previous game by 11 at half in San Jose, thats almost like a loss. Wolf Pack covered eight of its nine WAC road games and had great success in tournament last year. Kansas beat them by 33, but that was revenge games after the Pack had ambushed Jayhawks in Reno last year.
Arizona lost in first round last year, just their second in first round in last nine years; Wildcats are 9-2 outside Pac-10 this year. Arizona shoots 40.1% on 3's, 77.6% from line, but foes shoot 43.6% from floor. Arizona is 10-2 since Feb 1, losing twice to Washington. Problem is, if Stoudamire has off day, they can lose to anyone.
Utah State won 25 games last year and didn't get into NCAA's, so they won Big West tourney, eliminating all doubt. Aggies are a bully team; 13 of their 15 league wins were by 10+ pts, but they were 2-5 in games that were decided by seven or less pts, and lost non-league games to Central Florida and IPFW. Big West teams covered their last five first round games.
Texas Tech got to finals of Big 12 tourney, but they're 5-5 in last ten games, 8-3 outside of Big 12; Raiders shoot 40.2% from floor, but took 246 less 3's, than its opponents- they shoot 76.4% from line, and took 156 more foul shots than foes. Knight hasn't been to Sweet 16 since 1994; it'll be upset if he makes it here.
UCLA plays on this court every year; they had 4-game win streak snapped when they lost to Oregon State in first round of Pac-10 tourney. Bruins are 7-2 outside the Pac-10, losing only to BC, Michigan State- they've a terrific freshman PG, but still allowed foes to shoot 44% from floor. UCLA covered seven of their nine on road in conference play, and also won at Notre Dame.
West Virginia had great weekend last week to make NCAA's; they play an unusual 1-3-1 defense, which is hard to prepare for, they're 9-3 in last 12 games, and are very well-coached. Morgantown is within driving distance to Cleveland, so lot of WVa fans should get there. Opponents shoot 44.7%, so not good on D.
Creighton also got hot in conference tourney to make this field, but they had extra week to recover/prepare, compared to West Virginia. Bluejays shoot 41.5% on 3-pointers, 73% from line; they can be hurt inside, but have excellent sr PG in McKinney. Creighton won its last eight games, taking all three conference tourney tilts by double figure margins.
Illinois is top-ranked team in country, can name score vs FDU, if they play well; they are superior in all parts of game. Question for Illini is whether they look ahead to second round game vs Texas-Nevada winner.
Fairleigh Dickinson lost 88-57 at Rutgers, but hung in vs some other good teams, losing 89-81 at Arizona St, 87-84 (ot) at Buffalo, 80-66 at Cal- they beat Rider by a hoop. Knights have balanced scoring, but defense allows 45% from floor, so passing team like Illinois is going to get lot of layups. NEC teams are 0-19 in this event since '85, when Green's FDU team lost 59-55 to Michigan; they've covered four of last seven in NCAA.
UAB greatly resembles the old Arkansas teams- they go like hell for 40 minutes, won five of last six games, are +222 in turnover ratio this year and are 9-2 outside of C-USA. Six of their last seven losses are by seven or less pts. They played LSU last year and lost 78-62, so Tigers know how to handle that pressure.
LSU won seven of last eight games, losing OT game to Kentucky in SEC semis, so they're playing well, with a 15-3 spread record in last 18 games. Tigers are 7-4 in non-league games, losing to C-USA's Southern Miss, Houston; they split four OT games this year. SEC has not been best this year, so wary of their teams.
Gonzaga went through the WCC, won regular season and conference tournament with target on its back, so they're tough team, especially after December where it faced Illinois, Washington, Georgia Tech, Okla State. Zags get ball inside, shooting 50.6% from floor, taking 235 more foul shots and grabbing 232 more rebounds.
Winthrop is in tournament for fifth time in seven years; they went 0-4 vs spread in first four visits, losing by 47, 4 (play-in game),24,39 pts. Big South winner covered last two years, losing by 19,21 pts, after going 0-5 vs spread previous five years. Winthrop beat Austin Peay Providence, Weber and East Carolina, and lost by 10 at South Carolina, so they're not an awful team.
NCAA Tips:
Georgia Tech-George Washington, over 148 Underdog Colonials will pressure all over court, Tech will be glad to play at that pace. Anytime you get teams that both like to run, the over is in play, and I think this is one of those games. 30 hewitts on over 148.
Iowa State, +1.5-- Big 11 was not not so good this year, while Big 12 is tough, which makes Iowa State's 10-3 finish, after 0-5 start, an excellent feat; they won at Kansas and Texas, too. Cyclones have excellent guards; they're +129 in turnovers and won five of last seven road games. 20 morgans on Iowa State, +1.5.
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