Win $$$ First Two Rounds

[doodier28]

For the past three years if you bet $100 on every dog in the first two rounds you come out plus $2500-3000. I know someone who does this every year. May be better then RIPS fades???? Maybe not too just a thought.

[doodier28]

ANy thoughts???

[savage1]

Lets see-if there are 48 games total in the first two rounds(16 16 8 8), and if you went 38 winners in first and 10 losers, your winners would be $3800 and losers $1100, for a profit of $2700;unless you are rating the games,on a star basis, this is the ratio you would need to make $2700;39-9 would give you 3900-990=$2990.
I know there are many dogs in fiirst few rounds but am not sure the ratio is as great as cited;then again, I don't have the stats.

[lmercer213]

what about the 12/5 games, would anyone suggest betting on those blind or is it a game by game thing?

[savage1]

I went back last year's games at Scores and Odds and I got 23 favorites, 23 dogs and 2 picks in the first round;I could be off by one, possibly two at the most(I don't want to go back and re-check) but at least last year this would indicate that theory didn't work.
Check it yourself;go to Scores and Odds(boxscores) and check out dates of first two rounds of tournament beginning on 3/18/2004.

[doodier28]

I got 28-20, so even if I'm right, which I too probably screwed one or two up thats only +8 without vig
Forget it stick with rip thats what I am going to do.

[savage1]

I tried it again using odds posted at Scores and Odds and got 23-23 and 2 picks games,
On the other hand, I re-read your post and you said over the last three years and NOT just last year as I thought;thus you may be right;however, I am not going to check 2002 and 2003;I'll just take your word for it.
In any case, it might be a good idea to keep track of the ratio between favs and dogs to see if any clear trends emerge,
As you say, though, Rip seems to be the way to go.

[rxpert]

dogs 76-69 1st 2 rounds last 3yrs.

FAVORITES VS. UNDERDOGS


1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
1985 15-15-1 (1pk) 6-10 5-3 1-3 1-1 0-1
1986 13-17-1 (1 pk) 6-9 (1 pk) 4-4 3-1 2-0 0-1
1987 17-13-2 6-7-2 (1 pk) 2-6 0-4 1-1 0-1
1988 12-15-3 (2 pks) 10-6 5-3 2-2 0-2 0-1
1989 10-22 11-5 3-5 3-1 0-2 0-1
1990 15-14-1 (2 pks) 2-14 3-5 1-2 (1 pk) 2-0 1-0
1991 16-14 (2 pks) 12-3-1 3-4-1 2-2 0-2 1-0
1992 20-10-2 10-4-2 4-4 2-2 2-0 1-0
1993 19-11-2 9-6-1 4-4 2-2 1-1 1-0
1994 14-18 10-6 6-2 3-1 1-1 0-1
1995 17-13-1 (1 pk) 9-7 4-4 2-2 1-1 1-0
1996 16-16 9-7 5-3 2-2 0-2 0-1
1997 16-15-1 6-10 4-4 4-0 1-1 0-1
1998 17-14 (1 pk) 9-6 (1 pk) 2-5-1 1-3 0-2 1-0
1999 14-18 4-11-1 2-5 (1 pk) 1-3 1-1 0-1
2000 16-15-1 2-14 3-5 2-2 2-0 1-0
2001 15-18 10-6 6-2 2-2 2-0 1-0
2002 17-16 8-6-2 3-5 2-1-1 0-2 1-0
2003 12-21 10-6 4-4 1-3 1-1 0-1
2004 16-17 4-12 6-2 1-3 0-2 1-0
TOTAL 307-302-2 153-155-9 78-79-2 37-41-1 18-22 10-10
(10 Picks) (3 Picks) (1 Pick) (1 Pick)