NBA Fearless Friday Play$$$ 3/4

[savage1]

Frank-I apologize if you have answered this already, but here is my question:
Do you keep records of maybe more appropriately have you kept records over the years as to how teams do say in the first 5, 10 games or even more games after firing their coach?
Obviously that is situation tonight with Portland/Indy.
The reason I ask is that there is someone at gamblerstalk who says teams do better after firing their coach(although because line is so high, this poster actually has a GOY on Indy) tonight.
I am playing Indy tonight and feel that over the years teams play worse initially after their coach is fired.
Who based on your records or opinions in more correct here?

Frank-don't forget to answer this if you get a chance.

[frankb03]

Frank-I apologize if you have answered this already, but here is my question:
Do you keep records of maybe more appropriately have you kept records over the years as to how teams do say in the first 5, 10 games or even more games after firing their coach?
Obviously that is situation tonight with Portland/Indy.
The reason I ask is that there is someone at gamblerstalk who says teams do better after firing their coach(although because line is so high, this poster actually has a GOY on Indy) tonight.
I am playing Indy tonight and feel that over the years teams play worse initially after their coach is fired.
Who based on your records or opinions in more correct here?

Savage, I don't have records for teams with fired coaches. I wish I did. This season teams with new coaches are 0-2.

[frankb03]

bol tonight Frank. I REALLY like Toronto tonight, and I was looking at Indiana but the back to back vs rested home team has me hesitant to pull the trigger (especially with Pacer injuries). If you have a second, could you tell me how much you value that 2nd half road unrested vs home rested angle? I have noticed that your plays have not really fallen into that system, so I am sure it is just a guide for you and I wanted to know how strongly to utilize that angle when capping my own games. Thanks for posting your plays, I for one truly value your picks

OBE, any astute follower will note I often play unrested road teams. Unrested road teams IMO is akin to team injuries. The public and Vegas over compensates. On average, Vegas adjusts the line between 1.5 and 2 points. There's lots of value. In some cases teams with no rest do better than teams with 2 or more days rest. NBA teams appear to get a bit 'rusty' or complacent with a few days off.

Last nights Heat/Kings game is a good example of unrested teams. Yes, the Heat played on the road the night before in NJ. However, their previous game was February 27 in Orlando. After that game they went back to Miami relaxed for 3 days then flew to NJ.

On the other hand, The Kings have been on the road since Feb 24. Last nights game was their sixth straight road game. They came into last night game with 1 days rest. Prior to that they played back to back road games and 4 road games in 5 days.

Which team was more tired last night? Clearly the road weary Kings. The lesson to learn? Don't simply look at the schedule and be influenced because I team is playing with no rest. Look beyond their previous game.

[frankb03]

gl tonight frank and i have a ? for ya it seems to me tv games generally go under in college basketball do u have numbers on this and thanks

Sorry I don't. I have stats for college basketball. However, I don't cap CBB. NBA keeps m busy. For me it's easier to cap 10-12 games than dozens.

[frankb03]

[QUOTE=savage1]
The reason I ask is that there is someone at gamblerstalk who says teams do better after firing their coach(although because line is so high, this poster actually has a GOY on Indy) tonight/QUOTE]

IMO, the high line was due more to the injury to Jermaine than the Portland coaching change.

[frankb03]

If you have a second, could you tell me how much you value that 2nd half road unrested vs home rested angle? I have noticed that your plays have not really fallen into that system, so I am sure it is just a guide for you and I wanted to know how strongly to utilize that angle when capping my own games. Thanks for posting your plays, I for one truly value your picks

All the below records are ATS with an unrested road team playing on the road their previous game.

Nov and Dec 51.0% ATS Avg line 3.7
Jan 49.9% ATS Avg line 3.8
Feb 46.4% ATS Avg line 3.9
Mar thru end of season 51.5% ATS Avg line 4.1

For comparison purposes below are the records for teams with rest.

Nov and Dec 49/3% ATS Avg line 3.0
Jan 52.1% ATS Avg line 2.8
Feb 50.9% ATS Avg line 3.2
Mar thru end of season 51.6% ATS Avg line 3.0