Tweet
Net Prophet
NASCAR:
Matchups will begin next week, as I want to get a non-plate race under our belts before we start giving out matchups.* We'll also start doing some props like Over/Under finish position, etc.* I use a lot of current season data for these plays and until we get some "current data" I'd rather just not give out plays based on last year's numbers or hunches.
Lines below are from 5 Dimes and/or Pinnacle, but shop them around.* I'm going to try using "standardized lines" this week, as these books always seem to have some of the best prices.
To Win:
40% of wager on Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1
30% of wager on Jeff Gordon @ 7/1
20% of wager on Kurt Busch @ 18/1
10% of wager on Jamie McMurray @ 25/1
Not going to make the mistake of leaving out Jeff Gordon this week.* He's won 4 times at Fontana.* Jimmie Johnson won his first Cup event here, and its his home state.* He's on the record as saying that they've "circled" this race as one he'd like to win, with some extra testing here (and at a similarly configured track at Las Vegas).* Kurt Busch is from nearby Las Vegas, and won this race in 2003.* He's got the win, plus two top 5's in 5 starts here. Exceptional value this week at 18/1. Jamie McMurray has never won this race, but has two top 5's in 3 starts.* That's not too shabby, and at 25/1 we love the value price.
Notable omissions are Tony Stewart, basically because you can't cover everyone (especially the top drivers) and still turn a profit.* This actually isn't one of Stewart's best tracks statistically, so we'd rather leave him out than Johnson or Gordon.* For some reason, most sportsbooks have Greg Biffle listed as the favorite.* Biffle has been very strong in Busch Series races here, with 2 wins LY (though he posted a DNF yesterday) but I just can't justify taking a position on him at prices as low as 5/1. He's actually not done very well in his Cup starts here.* Were he at a higher price we might take a position but at 5/1 and 6/1 odds I'd rather have the more experienced drivers in the mix.
NASCAR:
Matchups will begin next week, as I want to get a non-plate race under our belts before we start giving out matchups.* We'll also start doing some props like Over/Under finish position, etc.* I use a lot of current season data for these plays and until we get some "current data" I'd rather just not give out plays based on last year's numbers or hunches.
Lines below are from 5 Dimes and/or Pinnacle, but shop them around.* I'm going to try using "standardized lines" this week, as these books always seem to have some of the best prices.
To Win:
40% of wager on Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1
30% of wager on Jeff Gordon @ 7/1
20% of wager on Kurt Busch @ 18/1
10% of wager on Jamie McMurray @ 25/1
Not going to make the mistake of leaving out Jeff Gordon this week.* He's won 4 times at Fontana.* Jimmie Johnson won his first Cup event here, and its his home state.* He's on the record as saying that they've "circled" this race as one he'd like to win, with some extra testing here (and at a similarly configured track at Las Vegas).* Kurt Busch is from nearby Las Vegas, and won this race in 2003.* He's got the win, plus two top 5's in 5 starts here. Exceptional value this week at 18/1. Jamie McMurray has never won this race, but has two top 5's in 3 starts.* That's not too shabby, and at 25/1 we love the value price.
Notable omissions are Tony Stewart, basically because you can't cover everyone (especially the top drivers) and still turn a profit.* This actually isn't one of Stewart's best tracks statistically, so we'd rather leave him out than Johnson or Gordon.* For some reason, most sportsbooks have Greg Biffle listed as the favorite.* Biffle has been very strong in Busch Series races here, with 2 wins LY (though he posted a DNF yesterday) but I just can't justify taking a position on him at prices as low as 5/1. He's actually not done very well in his Cup starts here.* Were he at a higher price we might take a position but at 5/1 and 6/1 odds I'd rather have the more experienced drivers in the mix.
Comment