[/B]systems that look good till you post them!

[paco]

Have you see this happen, you come up with a system that looks and wins good the first week, then you post it up and
ALL HELL BREAKS!!! :angryfire

I have one that is running about 76% all this week, I had 6 games I was going to post, but got to the computer to late.
the great thing was that I did not post it becouse
ALL THE FUCKN GAMES LOST!!!!!!!

I will see what games I come up with tonight, my luck they will make me look bad.

[Homer]

Can't do any worse then my own plays the last two days.

Just post them and see how it goes. You never know :D :D

[frankb03]

Betting games is similar to the stock market. It has its corrections. There's no way anyone can consistently win over 60%. For about a month before I started posting my games my win% on side NBA was better than 65%. Since I've started posting. 57%. I knew I'd have a cold spell. There's no way you'd continue to hit 76%. On Tuesday many members had a great night. Wednesday night many member took a beating. EXPECT IT.

One of the biggest key to successful betting is riding out the cold streaks. Reduce your bet amounts until the cold spell ends. When I started posting my NBA plays most of my plays were 5*. Now most of my plays are 2*. They well remain at that level until I feel my capping makes a turn. LEARN to accept loses. A bettor can't win every bet. Read the threads here. Sometimes the whining about a loss makes me laugh. Some players expect to win EVERY bet. A player can make LOTS of $$$$ hitting 55%. Hitting 55% means losing 45%.

[frankb03]

I think the primary reason bettors 'Chase' is they are too emotional. They haven't learned to accept loses.

[savage1]

Frank-you make a great analogy with the stock market.
I would take it a step further and add that when everyone starts talking about a system and everyone starts playing it because it has done well, that is exactly the time they system will go into the toilet for a little while anyways.
In the market same thing-when stock is rising, everyone is screaming about it, etc. that is precisely when the run is over and stock will go down at least temporarily.
ps Believe me I speak from many painful experiences in the market.

[nuanta]

Betting games is similar to the stock market. It has its corrections. There's no way anyone can consistently win over 60%. For about a month before I started posting my games my win% on side NBA was better than 65%. Since I've started posting. 57%. I knew I'd have a cold spell. There's no way you'd continue to hit 76%. On Tuesday many members had a great night. Wednesday night many member took a beating. EXPECT IT.

One of the biggest key to successful betting is riding out the cold streaks. Reduce your bet amounts until the cold spell ends. When I started posting my NBA plays most of my plays were 5*. Now most of my plays are 2*. They well remain at that level until I feel my capping makes a turn. LEARN to accept loses. A bettor can't win every bet. Read the threads here. Sometimes the whining about a loss makes me laugh. Some players expect to win EVERY bet. A player can make LOTS of $$$$ hitting 55%. Hitting 55% means losing 45%.

agree frank. < If I win every games I will rule the world...>

[CoverBoy]

FrankB

Well Spoken

Let me add that the very root cause as to why most gamblers fail ... undercapitalization. Think about it ... scared money ... makes a bettor settle for a small profit when he's hot as a pistol and should be knocking the crap out of the books .... makes a bettor chase losses because he's afraid to pay in a given week.

More often than not someone who's scared and stuck $1,500 with 1 or 2 days left in his week ( " I just want to try to get even " ) will turn his gloom into a $4-5,000 doom rather than just accept the fact he had a bad week and must pay.

Everything has got to be in place for a gambler to be successful ... plenty of dough , a tremendous amount of self esteem , enormous self discipline, physically and mentally fit , family harmony , and on and on and on .

God this is depressing ... I have some of these blessings but not all. lol .. I'd better stop here.

[savage1]

ps it works the other way too;As anyone who reads the stock section knows, I have an ungoing thread about Wellstone Filters;the symbol is wlsf.
Well, I have done well with this stock but it has done poorly of late for no reason I see.
Therefore I bought some yesterday at .66 and more today at .71;it is now back to .80.
This is opposite of above scenario-when everyone says a stock sucks and sells for no real reason, it is precisely the time to jump back in.

[Homer]

Well Spoken

Let me add that the very root cause as to why most gamblers fail ... undercapitalization. Think about it ... scared money ... makes a bettor settle for a small profit when he's hot as a pistol and should be knocking the crap out of the books .... makes a bettor chase losses because he's afraid to pay in a given week.

More often than not someone who's scared and stuck $1,500 with 1 or 2 days left in his week ( " I just want to try to get even " ) will turn his gloom into a $4-5,000 doom rather than just accept the fact he had a bad week and must pay.

Everything has got to be in place for a gambler to be successful ... plenty of dough , a tremendous amount of self esteem , enormous self discipline, physically and mentally fit , family harmony , and on and on and on .

God this is depressing ... I have some of these blessings but not all. lol .. I'd better stop here.

Frank and Coverboy,

Your both right on the money. I myself see me doing the something.

When I lose I push to make it back and lose more.

When I have a huge day. I know I should take a day or two off but I'm stupid and play anyway and lose half of the winnings if not all or more right back.

Its a hard game and really tough at times. You think you have a edge and your right back where you started or behind.

Great thread guys and thinks for the info. Hopefully I will remember this the next time it happens.

[paco]

just thought that this would be a great thred to start. I know that I can not win them all, it just pisses me off when you think you have an advantiage, and BAMMM!
YOU GET SMAKED IN THE FACE!!!
I love this shit!!!!!!!!!
I will always keep the fight going!
like you said, you can't win them all, but sometime you hope for that winning edge

[CoverBoy]

Savvy

So true - How many times have we seen where an NFL team has a poor ATS record in the first half of the season and looks so miserable that all of the public is staying away from them . That's PRECISELY when they should be on them. Profits will be made now that we will be getting the best of it from the linesmaker.

And when a team has done very well ATS first half of the season - and everyone is on them - it's generally the time to get off them - profits have been made. People will be paying Rolls Royce prices for a Lincoln.

5-6 years ago remember a company called Metromedia Fibre Network ? ( MFNX ) I got in fairly early on the advice of my Godfather. As it turns out I went to college many years ago with the owner. I bought at 25 . Well I told all my friends to get a piece. Some got in early ... most didnt. I sold at 75 AFTER 3 splits. I set the goal at 75 and that was it . And I didn't care for 1 minute how much more I could have made. I retired a few months after my transactions. Yes I did leave some on the table but I had exactly what I wanted. I can't believe that some of the same people were first buying it at 75 - 80 - all the way up to $100. I begged them not to buy at that price. Everyone was in a frenzy over this company. In a short time the company went completely south ( as did many of the tech stocks ) and was merely worth pennies.

Looking back I grabbed it when relatively few wanted it and sold it when everyone was crazy over buying it.

So you are Absolutely Right Savvy - there are very distinct parallels between the Stock Market and Sports Betting.

[frankb03]

When I have a huge day. I know I should take a day or two off but I'm stupid and play anyway and lose half of the winnings if not all or more right back.

I disagree with this statement. I think you should continue playing. However, don't change your wager amounts.

Sport bettors should take a day or two off when they are cold. I took about 10 days off late December into early January. I barely followed sports. It allowed me to come back fresh and with a clear perspective.

What I love about internet gambling? It makes it harder to chase. You can't chase what you don't have in your off-shore account. I won't max out my credit card chasing. It's enabled me to adhere to strict money management. I'm betting with 'real' money. In the past when I used a bookie it was easier to chase.

[Homer]

I won't max out my credit card chasing. It's enabled me to adhere to strict money management. I'm betting with 'real' money. In the past when I used a bookie it was easier to chase.

Totally agree with you. It is a lot easiler. You can only lose whats in your account. Not like Locals with amounts down then you pay.

Thinks for the info on the winning Frank I will follow that information :D

[frankb03]

I would take it a step further and add that when everyone starts talking about a system and everyone starts playing it because it has done well, that is exactly the time they system will go into the toilet for a little while anyways.

I agree with this statement. That is why I never reveal any of my systems.

As Coverboy can attest. I am a system play. He's the only one on earth that knows most of my systems. The systems are not simple systems such as play against a road team with no rest after a road win last night.

Some of my systems are extremely complex. I spend hours each day looking for an edge. I have some systems that have been active over 250 games with a win% about 60% over 10+ years. I don't believe these systems will ever even out. Another system has been active over 350 games. During that stretch that system has hit just under 60%.

I don't use team trends. I do believe team trends even out. Team personal changes. The trends get 'published' all over the web. Vegas makes adjustments.

[savage1]

Coverboy-that was a great story ,and I am glad it had a haapy ending for you.
My story with not such a happy ending is that 5 or 6 years ago I loaded up on a stock, actv(iatv is symbol, and it was involved with interactive tv) ) prior to internet bubble and started buying at around $4.
To make a long short I added to position, traded it along the way and watched it go to $50;I was up over $200000K and was warned by my father(he has since passed away and he was VERY astute in the market) to sell part if not all of it;I didn't listen.
The people who I thought were knowledgable on the stock chatboards said $50 was just the tip of the iceberg and that the stock might go well into hundreds.
Like a fool I believed and then watched stock plummet down to a fraction of what it was ( a few bucks or so);I sold some but lost most of my profit because I was greedy and thought the so-called experts were more savvy(sorry-had to use that word) than my father, who made a lot of money in the market during his life.
Over the long haul and at my age I won't miss the money, but I did learn a valuable lesson about what to believe and whom to believe or not to believe.
That is one of reasons I post my thoughts here(some might say it is a crusade) when it comes to sports services and their claims;if I reach only a few newbies, I feel I have acccomplished at least a little bit.