What is the most important aspect you look at for handicapping college and NBA basket

[mooshroma]

Attention all handicappers! What is the most important thing you look at when handicapping hoops? Let's make a list of what is most important to you,i.e., home court advantage, fav off a loss, anything like this...we can all use more tools to break the bank! There might be ideas we overlook. This can only help us all.

Moosh

[THENDY]

It all matters to some degree. one factor isnt enough. But whhen u consuder that in college sports the HOME TEAM WINS 2/3 OFTHE TIME. that is a good place to start.I tend to laugh my ass off when i see some handicapper release a so called GOY on a road team. TOO MUCH CN AND WILL GO WRONG ON THE ROAD ...AS WE ALL KNOW HOME COOKING HAS ITS PRIVILEDGES.

[RJeremy]

Line movements and % of side public is on.

I guess that's 2....my #1 is line movements.

[frankb03]

I only cap the NBA. I'm a situation or system player. I do NOT use team trends. Some of my systems are very complex.

I use many factors when capping the NBA. It varies greatly from game to game. Some factors include team scoring, defense, FG%, FG% defense, margin of victories, rest, OT, favorites off a loss, dogs off a win and lines.

Last week's Seattle at Phoenix game is a good example. Vegas set the line at -8. The public moved the line to -9.5. Seattle is too good of a team to get that many points. I'm sure Vegas set the line that high because Seattle won the night before at home vs. the Kings. Historically, .700 teams getting that many points in that situation was a good betting situation. Seattle won SU.

A home team with NO rest after a road loss getting DD points is a good situation. They don't win the game very often but they do cover. About 65%

Another factor. INJURIES. The public LOVES playing against the team with a injured star. I see threads created all the time at this board. Vegas lines already takes into consideration the injury. We are getting a good team with lots of value. Good teams do well without their injured star for a few games. Long-term is when it takes its toll on the team.

Finally, the rest factor. There seems to be a misuse and over-use of the rest factor. There are some very good situations with away teams with no rest. Those situations often lead to getting more points than normal. I very often play teams with no rest. Once again Vegas adjusts the lines. In some cases they over-adjust. Like last weeks Sun/Sonics game.

[mbates]

I always go with the team with the hotter looking cheerleaders

[mooshroma]

Frank: Great post! Hope everyone else takes the time to post their thoughts. It's interesting to see all the different theories and what guys think is important. We can all help each other.

[Mailman]

I agree with Frank about the star injury factor. Case last week. Nets-Sixers. I know I capped the game right taking Sixers +5.5. and the under. Ten minutes before the game Iverson is not playing. I already bet the Sixers then added to them when the line went to 7.5. Well the game goes to overtime and Sixers loose by 10. I should have cashed both sides, because Sixers had 5 point lead late and key factor here is Kyle Korver misses technical foul shot which would of iced the game in regulation. Thus I hit both sides. Sometimes you can do everything right and still turns out wrong.

[frankb03]

Capping the NBA is similar to playing golf. Do the opposite of what SEEMS logical. Vegas knows how most bettors react. They adjust the lines. In many cases we can use those adjustments to our advantage.

Streaks or the Due Factor. I've seen far too many times "A team is DUE". There's no such thing as due. A team on a winning streak is on a winning streak because they are good. They are NOT Due to lose. As Savage says you can win many times while on a streak but only lose once. Last season a member kept betting Detroit UNDER. He kept winning. Don't buck streaks.

Yesterday, someone posted to fade the OVER because a team has gone OVER 7 straight games. Blindly fading will lose money. Betting on teams that have played 7 straight overs is a good situation. Almost 63%.

Revenge. Novice players LOVE playing on the team that is seeking revenge. Once again there are some great betting opportunities fading teams seeking revenge. Teams beat team usually for a very good reason. They are better or better than public perception.

Teams with .700 or better winning percentages are very good teams. Novice bettors love betting good teams. Many bettors would make a play on a .700+ team as a road favorite seeking revenge after losing at home as a favorite. However, that is a good situation to fade the favorite. We're getting points at home with a good team. Also the home dog in this situation was a winning SU record.

The most important lesson for a bettor. Look for and bet on dogs. There's nothing better than getting points. You never get back doored playing the dog. Especially look for good teams getting points. Playing good teams, better than .600, at home getting points is very profitable.

I can write a book on NBA capping. I do very well capping NBA. I also put in lots of time studying teams, situations etc...

[savage1]

Superb words of advice, Frank;I guess only "LOSER" Lawrence is better than you when it comes to this stuff(just kidding).
ps You should give footnote to Phil Steele about the streak quote, as he is the one from whom I coined the phrase(see Phil Steele gives good advice sometimes when he is not touting himself and a zillion other services on his Community Line).

[Fast Eddie]

Fox Sheets dot com !!!!!

Every thing that you will need and want to know about all games.

[psmitty]

road dogs getting 2-4 pts. on the money line (+120/160)... to me betting is all about value.. whether your playing the horses or the sportsbook or any kind of gambling you want to get the most bang for your buck... i love cathching those 2-4pt. dogs on the money line..obviously you have to pick your spots but there is some great value out there everynight..why take a team -3 -110 when you can catch + 130/140 on the other side in a game that really could go either way???(now if anybody could help me find these teams i could finally leave the house during the day...)