NCAA Cappers Input Please

[rwall]

Here''s what I'm looking at.
Looking at the results of Saturday's NCAA games, there were 25 teams that covered the spread by double digits. I regularly look at those teams as PLAY AGAINST.
Wanting to take it a little further I am looking at the line movement of these games and paying special attention to those teams where the line shows the public played them, moved the line and they still covered the number.
for example...
Wake opened @-14' over FSU. They won by 41. The number got played up to 16 in some places. This to me says HUGE play against next time out.
other teams from this "analysis" are..
Kansas won by 29, line went from -16 to -20. (Play Against)
Dartmouth won by 8, line went from +11 to + 10' (Play Against)
ADDED GAMES
East Tenn St. won by 27, line went from -1 to -1' (Play Against)
Jax St. won by 15 Line went from +8 to +6 (Play Against)

Here's the question....Has anybody looked into something like this or use it in their handicapping?... Am I waisting time?....Do you have any suggestions?...or is it wait and see?

[THICK 1]

its interesting but i have never looked into this aspect before at all but i will keep and eye on it since you brought it up though.
good luck on whatever you do though.

[rwall]

There's 2 games scheduled for tommorow. (Early Lines)

@East Tenn St. -9 against West Carolina
Kansas -3 against @ Texas Tech

I would be looking at ....
W Carolina +9 and Tex Tech +3

[$Jimmy$]

Let me sum this up for you. If a line is at -5, and the public is pounding the favorite, and the line drops, go with the underdog. If the line is -5, and the public is pounding the underdog, and the line goes up, play the favorite. If the public is on a team, over 80%, and the line remains stale, go against public. If a line is -5, and public is all over favorite, and line rises quickly, favorite usually the play, and so on. Its a very good method, and keeps you from being on the wrong side of a "trap".

[rwall]

Jimmy,
I think what you're saying is wise on game days.
What I'm trying to do is identify PA teams going into their next game, thinking that as a result of the teams recent success (ATS) and the fact that they made money for their backers. There will be value going the other way.
What I would anticipate happening would be i.e. Kansas at -3 and getting bet a bit higher by game time.
I believe it is human nature to stick with a team that has brought you success without sweating over it. And that is what the oddsmakers are anticipating also, when they make a line.
I hope that clears it up.

[$Jimmy$]

Ok, see what you are saying. What I do is cap my games, pick out the ones I have covering by the most points, then use the system I told you above. Has produced over 65% winning for me last year, and so far this year. The oddsmakers know more than anyone about the lines, and use that accordingly. They put the line at KU -3, and with Kansas's success, and TT getting beat pretty good at ISU, they expect the public to be on Kansas. I dont expect this line to go up much, because I believe they want the public on Kansas. I expect over 70% on KU with a stale line. TT looks like a solid play, but cannot confirm until I get my numbers tomorrow.

[MtrCtyPimp]

I think you might be onto something

GL

PEACE

[THICK 1]

jimmy i totally agree with what you are saying i have been doing that for a while .
sometimes i see games where everyon eis on one side but the line does not move and seems awful fishy but you can win alot with the ways you described earlier.
good post.

[jim s.]

Hi rwall

I think what you are trying to do is find an equitable value for a team based on it`s projected `spread`...I like to use the power ratings for a team I may have doubts about...In your example i.e, Kansas U, the PR for that team is a -2 and is currently laying -3 to Tex Tech...not a big significance here..
What IS of significance in todays games i think , is the Drxel Vs. UNC-W game...Drexel is currently laying -7.5, yet the PR for Drexel shows -12...a pretty big difference here...BTW, here in most LV casinos, it takes upwards of about $3500 to move a line a half point (one side bet) so regardless of who is betting what in Des Moines, or Memphis, it`s the bucks that cross the counters here in LV and offshore that dictate where the `publics` money is going...GL today

[rwall]

Jim,
I refer to power ratings also. Several different sets. What I see happen when using those they run hot and cold and for the most part end up around 50% as an average. I think they are important, I just think that, for lack of a better term "line analysis" can be a strong tool in handicapping games that I believe only a few use.
This is the site I go to for Power ratings.
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/bb/basketball.html

[jim s.]

Thanks rwall

You are correct of course, in the `power rating`system running hot and cold...Thanks for providing the link, and again, BOL to you today, buddy

[$Jimmy$]

Thanks guys, Its made alot of people happy. However, you can not always just go by this. I cap the games, then use that to see how solid it is. If I have a team not covering, but the linemovements say they will, I just back off. I like looking at the teams I have covering easy, then using it, and if it matches up, the play wins most of the time. I use more accurate systems then most handicappers do. I am a service, but if you would like me to start up a thread on these linemovements, and public %'s, I will for a few days. These wont always be my plays that Im giving to customers, but can help some of you out. Let me know.

[rwall]

Jimmy,
That is something I actually never looked into. I would be interested in it if you could post the information.
Thanks

[lmercer213]

rwall, I think that if your trying to find a GAURANTEED system your never gonna find one!!
for instance, you don't know which team is paid to throw the game,
you don't know which player is trying to impress his girlie by missing free throws.
IF ku loses to Texas Tech tonight its not going to be because they pounded a HORRIBLE colorado team, its gonna be because TECH got LUCKY!!!

[rwall]

Im,
I always get a kick out of you posts. Thanks
Nothings garanteed just trying to better the odds.