Pro Football Post-Season Game of the Year

[griswold]

Playoffs: 4-5 +0.8 units
2* 2-0
1* 2-5

3* Pro Bowl OVER 57
I know it seems crazy to make your biggest playoff wager on an all-star game but I have very solid reasoning here. In the last several years, the players and the NFL have treated the Pro Bowl the way the NBA treats its all-star game. Scoring is encouraged. Defense is very passive. Check out the following trend.
2000 51-31
2001 38-17
2002 38-30
2003 45-20
2004 55-52 (!!!)
In the last five years, the score has gone over the total for this year's game (57) four of five times. The average total over the last five years is is 75.4! The only game that ended under 57 was 2001 and that came close at 55. I strongly urge a bet on this total NOW as the line may go up to 64 or 65. For those who don't like my idea here, you may even be able to get a big middle if the total rises, as I suspect it will. Nothing is a sure thing in all-star games but the evidence is overwhelming that the league and players are converting this game to a shoot-out and, as such, the opening line is out of touch with current reality.

[10DimeBry]

I AGREE I figured the game O/U would have been in the mid 60's atleast.

[CHICHImomo]

Does anyone know the previous years pro-bowl spreads?

[griswold]

Line already moving, according to donbest.com. Most books up to 58, some up to 59. Those interested should bet as soon as possible.

[griswold]

Line is soaring right now. 59 1/2 at most books. This is the worst Vegas line I've seen in some time.

[griswold]

Line still moving WAY up. 62 1/2 at most books. If it gets to 65 as it should, a middle might be advisable. i still think the correct line here should be about 77.

[diesel]

Betting on the Pro Bowl is even worst than betting preseason football. Nothing good can happen from it. However Good Luck on your call

[griswold]

Diesel,

How can you say "nothing good" can come from betting on the Pro Bowl? Any wager will either win or lose and therefore something "good" can come from it. In this instance, there is a set of facts that can be used to evaluate the wager. In contend there is a longterm trend in place that can be exploited in this wager. The fact that the game is unimportant does not negate the fact that this trend exists.
The unimportance of a game cannot be the sole factor in placing a wager. In fact, I would argue that this game is more bettable than last week's super bowl---a game in which all information was out there and there were no edges to try to exploit.

[savage1]

Griswold-The only thing that I don't like about it is that the line has jumped so soon and so fast;sometimes (not always) it means that everyone has discovered the trend, and that can spell trouble especially if all the Tom, Dick and Harry habitual losers are playing it.
This happens many times in another sense in the stock market when a stock starts to soar;then everyone jumps on it at once and it is too late already;the rally is over.
I know you can't compare stocks and games, but that is the feeling I got when you mentioned line is jumping so fast.
Hopefully, 80 points or more will be scored , you will win or you will hit a great middle.
Best of luck;I am going to stay away for reasons stated unless Phil Steele has a 5* GOY on the over-yeah right!

[rocko]

POUND IT HERE THE CURRENT LINE
301 NFC 56 57/58/60/62½/63/63½/64
7:30 PM

302 AFC 3 3½
WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOOO LOOK AT THAT LINE MOVEMENT GLLLLL PEACE

[griswold]

adding:

1/2* Pro Bowl UNDER 65
I am recommending this only for those who hit the game at its absurdly low number earlier in the week, as I pounded the table for. I can't resist a shot at an eight point middle! It's also a hedge so I still have 2 1/2 units (an enormous play for me) on the over but a real shot of winning 3 1/2 while reducing my downside risk. I doubt the line will go higher than 65. I repeat that the opening line of 57 was preposterously low. I would not blame anyone who played that line over to bet the entire original amount right now with the under to go for a giant middle but I still think the overwhelming evidence is for a high scoring game.

[griswold]

Won the big bet and pushed on my half-unit under.
Final tally for post-season:
5-5 +3.8 units
3* 1-0
2* 2-0
1* 2-5

Hope some were able to do some good by betting this total early.

[frankb03]

Griswold, DOUBLE CONGRATS. First and foremost on winning GOY

More importantly for being astute in putting the selections out early. The late OVER bettors lost. The total closed at 66.