Playoffs: 4-5 +0.8 units
2* 2-0
1* 2-5
3* Pro Bowl OVER 57
I know it seems crazy to make your biggest playoff wager on an all-star game but I have very solid reasoning here. In the last several years, the players and the NFL have treated the Pro Bowl the way the NBA treats its all-star game. Scoring is encouraged. Defense is very passive. Check out the following trend.
2000 51-31
2001 38-17
2002 38-30
2003 45-20
2004 55-52 (!!!)
In the last five years, the score has gone over the total for this year's game (57) four of five times. The average total over the last five years is is 75.4! The only game that ended under 57 was 2001 and that came close at 55. I strongly urge a bet on this total NOW as the line may go up to 64 or 65. For those who don't like my idea here, you may even be able to get a big middle if the total rises, as I suspect it will. Nothing is a sure thing in all-star games but the evidence is overwhelming that the league and players are converting this game to a shoot-out and, as such, the opening line is out of touch with current reality.
2* 2-0
1* 2-5
3* Pro Bowl OVER 57
I know it seems crazy to make your biggest playoff wager on an all-star game but I have very solid reasoning here. In the last several years, the players and the NFL have treated the Pro Bowl the way the NBA treats its all-star game. Scoring is encouraged. Defense is very passive. Check out the following trend.
2000 51-31
2001 38-17
2002 38-30
2003 45-20
2004 55-52 (!!!)
In the last five years, the score has gone over the total for this year's game (57) four of five times. The average total over the last five years is is 75.4! The only game that ended under 57 was 2001 and that came close at 55. I strongly urge a bet on this total NOW as the line may go up to 64 or 65. For those who don't like my idea here, you may even be able to get a big middle if the total rises, as I suspect it will. Nothing is a sure thing in all-star games but the evidence is overwhelming that the league and players are converting this game to a shoot-out and, as such, the opening line is out of touch with current reality.
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