10* alert.........Super Bowl

[shorty3830]

First , let me say that there are many cappers on this site better than I am when it comes to this sport.......In fact, i only posted 1 nfl game all year, but i cannot resist this

10* New England (-7) vs Philly-------->First let me say that in the past 4 years, i have not really liked one side in the super bowl, i usually just bet the props......this however, seems to have all the makings of a sound beating........it is hard to look past the fact that new england destroyed indy and pittsburgh to get here while phildelphia beat mediocre teams........without TO healthy, and he is not, this super bowl sort of reminds me of what the NBA had been like the past 13 seasons with the west being so much better than the east.....where the finals were a foregon conclusion after the western teams got done with each other...in order to beat new england, you have to able to run well , pass well, stop the run well and stop the pass well.........without a healthy TO, and their 2nd tight end, the eagles set of receivers are in the bottom 10 in the nfl.......westbrook is great but i am sure new england game planned for him and thus, it will be hard for philly to score much..........new england scores when they have too and there is no reason to believe philly can hold them down.......i do not buy into the "philly is just happy to be here" thing , or the "new england is going to win becase of their experience" thing either......i just think without a healthy TO, new england is A LOT better than philly

the weather is nice here in jax so that wil not be an issue, and we have been spoiled recently with some good super bowls, but without a healthy TO, philly may be the worst team New England has played yet in the playoffs and i cannot see any way , barring a +2 or more turnover ratio that this game is close

Prediction:: New England 38 Philly 7

for whatever it is worth, i am not a fan of either team, nor do i dislike either team..........the eagle fans (who outnumber the pat fan 3 to 1 here) have been great and the pats fans are as confident as you would imagine

good luck
b

[wayne1218]

I agree shorty. I don't think people should forget their path to get here.

Philly had home games against a mediocre Minn. team and a one man gang in Atl. in which they won by 13 and 17.

N.E. beat a high powered Colts team by 17 and a Steeler team that was on a major roll by 14 ON THE ROAD! Pitt. and Indy would both be playing in Jax. too if they had Philly's path. The NFC was very weak this year and Philly was the best of the bunch but i think they could get beat in all 3 phases of the game on Sunday!

GL Brother!

[orientalhawn]

good luck I'm with you!!

[BigTicket]

Not take the Patriots??? Yea right!! I am with you to the window!! Good luck shorty!!

[Patriot]

Philly beat 2 dome teams at home in Jan.

This will be an old fashined Man/Boy beating.The kind you use to get when you got uppity with the old man.
When you were about 14 or 15.

Let me put it to you this way.Playing in the NFC.The Eagles are the worlds tallest midget.

[stud]

Wouldn't want to go against a sizzling HOT guy!

Enjoy SB Sunday,
Stud

[Patriot]

Corey Dillion will supply the heat...right through the heart of that light weight line.

I guess I never looked at it the way you do "Stud".

[Patriot]

The sweet sound of success
Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Feb. 3-9, 2005


Well, we’ve listened to a symphony of Cold, Hard Football Facts over the last two weeks. Here are the final notes on why the Cold, Hard Football Facts believe New England will win Super Bowl XXXIX.

The pigskin Beethoven orchestrates New England’s attack
Donovan McNabb may be a great quarterback, but this is one of the more favorable QB matchups New England has faced in recent postseasons. Consider this: Brady has appeared in eight playoff games heading into Super Bowl XXXIX. His opposing quarterbacks in five of those games have won a combined six NFL MVP awards. Another opposing QB was the NFL Rookie of the Year.

Brady has played second fiddle to each an every one in the pregame hype wars. But on gameday he’s been the grand maestro, stealing the spotlight from every single one of them. McNabb may be a great quarterback, but he’s not the league MVP and, even if we were, Brady has always got the better of these battles. For the record, Brady’s Patriots have toppled 2002 MVP Rich Gannon; 1999 and 2001 MVP Kurt Warner; 2003 co-MVP Steve McNair; and 2003 co-MVP and 2004 MVP Peyton Manning. McNabb, meanwhile, has lost to teams led by Brad Johnson and Kerry Collins. Philly’s playoff victims in the McNabb era include Johnson, Shaun King and Jim Miller.

The Patriots are red hot
The Patriots are coming off back-to-back wins against Indy and Pittsburgh, two teams that were a combined 29-7 this season (including playoffs). The Patriots outscored these two teams in the playoffs by an average of 30.5-15.0. Indy and Pittsburgh boasted the league’s No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense, respectively. They were a combined 1-3 against New England this season, but 28-4 against the rest of the league.

The Eagles are coming off back-to-back wins at home over two dome teams that went a combined 19-13 in the regular season.

Turnovers win football games
Turnovers are the one factor that can quickly silence the sweetest sounding football symphony. McNabb has been very effective in the postseason. In fact, other than a 3-INT meltdown against Carolina in the 2003 NFC title game, he’s thrown just five interceptions in 10 career playoff games. Brady, however, has thrown just three interceptions in his entire postseason career. As one astute reader noted, Brady has thrown just one interception every 90.3 postseason attempts. It is the lowest postseason interception rate in NFL history.

“Pundits,” meanwhile, have been quick to note the ball-hawking Philly defense. And, of course, Philly has three Pro Bowlers in its secondary. The Eagles intercepted 17 passes in the regular season and three in the postseason. New England’s secondary fields an undrafted rookie, two second-year players and a wide receiver at nickel back. The Patriots intercepted 20 passes this season and four in the postseason.

In the postseason, the Patriots are +7 in turnover margin and have not coughed up the ball once. The Eagles are +2. They’ve intercepted three passes and recovered one fumble.

In the regular season, NE was +9 in turnovers. Philly was +6.

New England is peaking at the right time
After 18 games, the Patriots have outscored their opponents by an average of 27.7 to 16.1 (+11.6 points per game). Only once this year, following the 12th game of the season, have they boasted a wider scoring differential. Philly enters the game with a scoring differential of 24.4 to 15.8 (+8.6). The Eagles peaked following their fifth game of the year, when they had a scoring differential of 27.4-12.6 (+14.8).

The NFC is a joke
The AFC went 44-20 vs. the NFC this season. Despite the fact that the NFC East boasts the conference’s Super Bowl representative, the division went just 4-12 against the AFC North, a division that sent just one team to the playoffs.

New England plays in the AFC East, which went sent two teams to the playoffs and went 13-3 against the NFC West, a division that sent two teams to the playoffs.

The NFC this season became the first conference to send two .500 teams to the playoffs. In the entire history of the NFL, a .500 team had never won a playoff game. But the NFC’s two .500 playoff representatives, St. Louis and Minnesota, each recorded playoff wins this year. Needless to say, the NFC was inept this year, even by historical standards.

(By the way, we looked at the quality of the defenses each team faced earlier this week.)

Philly has struggled against the AFC
Proof of the NFC’s ineptitude can be seen simply by looking at the performance of its best team against the AFC. The Eagles went 2-2 against the AFC this season. They were crushed, 27-3, by Pittsburgh (15-1). They were crushed 38-10 by Cincinnati (8-8), in a late-season game in which Philly rested many of its top players. They beat Cleveland (4-12) in overtime, 34-31. They edged Baltimore (9-7), 15-10. Remember, Philly was the dominant team in the NFC this year.

The Patriots went 4-1 against the same four AFC opponents. They split two games with the Steelers, losing 34-20 and winning 41-27, both times at Pittsburgh. They beat Cincinnati, 35-28. They crushed Cleveland, 42-15. They crushed Baltimore, 24-3.

New England is more battle-tested
The Patriots have played eight games against teams that appeared in the playoffs. New England is 7-1 in those games and outscored these teams 214-144 (26.7-18.0).

The Eagles have played six games against teams that appeared in the playoffs. Philly is 4-2 in those games and outscored these teams 138-104 (23.0-17.3).

The power of the New England ground attack
The Patriots have won two Super Bowls with a mediocre-at-best rushing attack. In fact, only one Super Bowl winner, the 1970 Colts, had a ground game that was more inept than that of the 2003 Patriots. New England heads into Super Bowl XXXIX with a ground game that ranked 7th in the NFL this season (133.4 yards per game) and with a running back, Corey Dillon, who averaged more yards per game rushing (109) than any player in football this year (he missed one regular season game). Dillon is also the leading ballcarrier in the postseason with 217 yards on 47 carries.

Philly has the league’s 24th ranked rushing attack with 102.4 yards per game. The entire Eagles team rushed for 1,639 yards in the regular season. That’s just four more yards than Dillon’s output in 15 games.

The quality wins quotient
As we pointed out earlier this week, the quality wins quotient indicates that this is one of the biggest mismatches in Super Bowl history. The Patriots are 9-1 against quality opponents. The Eagles are 3-1 against quality opponents. It’s the first Super Bowl meeting in which one team has six more quality wins than the other.

Boredom reigns supreme
Sal Paolantonio of ESPN devoted an entire “media day” report to the fact that New England was boring. According to Paolantonio, the Eagles are an exciting team because they have a couple of wide receivers who mouthed off in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. They Patriots failed to give him any easy storylines.

But one man’s yawner of a team is another man’s ruthless football killing machine. The Patriots are poised to topple a whole series of NFL records. No team has ever won more than 33 games in a two-year span. A victory in the Super Bowl will be New England’s 34th win in two years. New England can tie Lombardi’s Packers for most consecutive playoff victories. Brady can tie Bart Starr for most consecutive playoff victories by a quarterback with nine (Starr lost his first playoff game before winning nine straight). Bill Belichick can surpass the postseason coaching record of Vince Lombardi, the man for whom the Super Bowl trophy is named. And, of course, the Patriots can become just the third team in the entire history of the NFL to win three championships in a four-year span (the Cowboys of the early 90s won three in four years while the Packers of the late 60s won three straight).

Yeah, that’s boring. We’re sure the Patriots would trade it all for the excitement of a single witty Freddy Mitchell one-liner.

[Maverick]

I hope everyone enjoys the game. GL to all.

Thanks for the winners Shorty, Wayne, and the rest of the good cappers here.


Go Birds!

[DiamondDanny]

Patriot:
One other interesting note I heard on the radio this week is that there is a clause in Corey Dillon's contract that if he wins MVP in Super Bowl, he receives a $250,000 bonus. Certainly an incentive for him to perform!