Trends and Forecasts 2/3

[crswir]

Thursday, February 3rd

L.A. Clippers (181) at Memphis (-6.5), 8:05 ET
L.A. Clippers - 4-9 ATS after shooting % improved in 3 straight
Memphis - 13-4 ATS after a win as an underdog

Cleveland (201) at Miami (-6.5), 8:05 ET
Cleveland - 6-16-1 ATS after allowing 50% shooting in a loss
Miami - 11-2 ATS on a 1-game S/U and ATS losing streak

San Antonio (-7) at L.A. Lakers (187), 10:35 ET
San Antonio - 16-5 ATS vs. team with same season double revenge
L.A. Lakers - 4-9-1 ATS after allowing <40% shooting in a S/U win


**Denotes Time Change

TODAY'S FORECAST

Thursday, February 3, 2005
MST TV Hoops Index Forecast
6:00p KTLA Memphis* 10 over L.A. Clippers
6:00p TNT Miami* 9 over Cleveland
8:30p TNT San Antonio 5 over L.A. Lakers*

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Today's Games
MST Our Favored Team Rating Sprd Our Underdog Team Rating
5:00p Akron 91.8 ½ Bowling Green* 86.3
5:00p Appalachian St.* 82.1 12½ Citadel 74.7
5:00p Ball State 89.4 9 Central Michigan* 75.2
5:00p Cleveland State* 80.7 5 Wisc-Green Bay 80.7
5:00p Coll. of Charleston* CSN 83.6 15½ Western Carolina 73.2
5:00p Detroit 84.5 10 Youngstown St.* 69.4
5:00p Fairfield 84.4 8½ Loyola-Maryland* 71.1
5:00p North Carolina* ESPN 110.0 19 North Carolina St. 95.9
5:30p Butler* 82.7 6 Loyola-Chicago 81.6
6:00p La.-Lafayette 88.6 ½ North Texas* 83.0
6:00p Middle Tennessee St.* 85.4 3½ Western Kentucky 86.9
6:00p Northern Illinois* 85.5 10 Marshall 80.6
6:00p Samford* 81.9 1½ Tennessee Tech 85.2
6:00p Toledo* FSN 90.0 3 Miami O. 92.1
6:00p Western Michigan* CSN 91.5 15 Eastern Michigan 81.6
6:05p Rice* 88.5 14½ Boise State 79.1
6:05p SW Missouri State* 90.9 12½ Indiana State 83.2
6:05p UT-El Paso DTV 91.8 4½ Tulsa* 82.5
6:15p Murray State* 87.7 16½ Eastern Illinois 76.1
6:30p Austin Peay 81.0 3 Jacksonville St.* 72.8
6:30p Gonzaga* FSN 96.7 10½ St. Mary's-Cal. 91.2
6:30p SE Missouri State 81.6 4½ Tenn-Martin* 72.3
6:30p South Alabama* 81.3 3 Ark-Little Rock 83.3
6:30p Stanford FSN 96.4 ½ Arizona State* 91.0
6:30p Tennessee St.* 80.6 1 Eastern Kentucky 84.5
7:00p Arkansas State 88.7 0 New Orleans* 83.6
7:05p Montana State* ALT 79.1 8½ Idaho State 75.8
7:05p Montana* 82.5 11½ Weber State 76.0
7:05p Northern Arizona* 80.0 1½ Portland State 83.5
8:00p CS-Fullerton 82.1 ½ UC-Riverside* 76.8
8:00p Cal-Santa Barbara* 82.5 4½ Idaho 82.8
8:00p Denver* FSN 88.1 17 New Mexico State 76.1
8:00p Fresno State* 88.6 4½ Louisiana Tech 89.3
8:00p Pacific* 92.0 13½ UC-Irvine 83.3
8:00p Portland U.* 85.0 0 Santa Clara 89.8
8:00p San Diego U.* 87.3 11½ Loyola-Marymount 81.0
8:00p San Francisco* 89.5 12 Pepperdine 82.5
8:00p Utah State 97.2 17 Cal Poly-SLO* 75.3
8:00p Washington* 102.3 19½ Southern Cal 87.6
8:05p CS-Northridge* 88.1 16½ Long Beach St. 76.6
8:05p CS-Sacramento* 75.3 3 Eastern Washington 77.3
8:05p Nevada* 91.1 10 S.M.U. 86.2
8:30p Arizona* FSN 96.3 11 California 90.4
8:30p Washington State* FSN 92.7 7 U.C.L.A. 90.5
* Home Team = +5 pts. ** Neutral Court

[Spark]

NC State has no ACC losses by more than 12 points, but North Carolina is 3-0 at home in ACC, with wins by 34,22,20 points. Favorite is 3-0 vs spread in Pack road games, with their two losses both by a point; they lost twice to UNC last year, by 2 and 7 points.

Akron won five of last six games; dog is 4-1 vs spread in their MAC road games, as home team is 8-2 vs the spread in all their MAC tilts. Bowling Green lost three of last five games; they're 3-1 at home in MAC, with wins by 7,1,11 points.

Ball State won four of last five games, but they're 1-3 on MAC road, with only win by single point. Central Michigan lost seven of last eight games and four in a row, with three of four by 20+ points; they're 2-4 as a home underdog, with three losses by 16+ points.

Toledo covered six of last eight games; they're 3-1 as a MAC home fave, with wins by 11,10,3,6 pts. Miami won three of last four games, with three of wins by 10 or more points; they're 1-2 vs spread as the underdog.

Youngstown lost its last seven games, with five of last six losses by more than ten points; they're 3-1 as home dog in Horizon play. Detroit lost three of last four tilts, but they're 4-1 as Horizon fave, with four of their five league wins by ten or more points.

Cleveland State won its last three games by 1,20,14 points, after 1-5 start in league; they lost 81-76 in first series meeting this year. Green Bay had a 3-game win streak snapped last time out; they won two of three in league on the road. Home team is 8-1 vs spread in the Cleveland State league games this season.

Butler is 2-6 in league, 1-3 at home, 0-4 as home fave they lost last three games, scoring just 53.3 ppg. Guest won three of last five games; Loyola is 2-4-1 as dog in Horizon play, 4-5SU. Ramblers lost at home in OT vs Butler in first series meeting this year.

Marshall is 0-9 in MAC, covering only two times; they are 2-2 as road dog- only two of nine losses in league are by more than nine points. Northern Illinois lost four of last five games; they're 3-1 at home in MAC, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 8,3,13 points.

Eastern Michigan lost its last six games, covering one of the six, as only one of the losses was by more than 13 points. Western Michigan lost three of last four and is 1-4 vs spread in last five games. In only two of five home games, did Western win by more than 15 points.

Middle Tennessee scored just 57 ppg in losing four of last five games; they're 2-2 as Sun Belt favorite, 3-4 in league, SU. Western Kentucky won three of last four games, but have yet to cover in six tries; they're 1-3 on Sun Belt road, with losses by 3,4,15 points.

UL-Lafayette won its last six games, last four by 10 or more points; they're 2-0-1 as Sun Belt road fave, with wins by 3,5,10 points. North Texas lost three of last four games; they're 0-2 at home in league, with losses by 3,7 points. Home side won last five series games.

Rice lost last three games; they won 87-75 at Boise in first meeting, but in nine WAC games (5-4) have only two wins by more than 12 points. Boise is 1-3 as road dog, with losses by 7,18,33,9 points. Broncos are 2-5 as WAC dog. WAC home favorites are 11-19.

Tulsa is 1-8 in WAC, but only one of last four losses was by more than seven points. UTEP is 7-2 in league, but their last four wins were all by five or less points. Miners won three of last four games; they're 3-2 on the road in WAC, with wins by 14,3,5 points.

Indiana State covered five of last six games; they lost all four road games in Valley, but covered three, with losses by 10,1,5,8 points. SW Missouri won three in row, by 11,15,7 points; they're 3-3 at home in Valley with only one home win by more than seven points.

St Mary's drilled Gonzaga 89-81 four weeks ago; they are 2-0 on WCC road, 1-0 as dog and are on winning streak of four since odd 23-point loss to Santa Clara. Zags are 5-2 in league, 2-5 as favorite; they have some injury issues; they're 3-0 at home in WCC (11,24,12)

Stanford won six games in row after 0-3 start in league they're 5-1 vs spread in those games, 5-0 as dog, 4-0 as a road dog. Arizona State is 0-3 as home favorite, 1-4 overall as WAC fave, 2-4 SU in last six games. Cardinal swept series last year by 1,30 points.

Arkansas State is off to 5-2 Sun Belt start, 3-1 in tilts decided by five or less points. New Orleans is 2-3 in last five games; they covered last three tries as dog in Sun Belt. ASU beat New Orleans by 20 in Jonesboro last season.

Denver is 6-1 in Sun Belt, covering five of six as fave; they're 3-0 as home favorite, with wins by 27,17,10 points. New Mexico State is 1-6 in league, but none of their losses are by more than 15 points, with Aggies a decent 2-1 as road dog (losses by 3,9 points)

Pepperdine lost its last five games, four by 10+ points; they're 0-2 as WCC road dog, with away losses in the league by 10,14,17 points. San Francisco is 0-2 as a home fave; dog covered three of their four home tilts. Pepperdine's last win was 64-57 over Dons, 26 long days ago.

USC is 3-1 as Pac-10 road dog, with losses by 7,10,9 points; they got crushed 84-59 in first meeting at LA Sports Arena. Washington won four of last five games; only one of their five league wins at home is by more than 14 points. Huskies are 3-2 as home favorite.

Louisiana Tech won its last four games; they're 5-4 in WAC, 2-2 on road (dog is 3-1 vs spread in WAC tilts at Fresno. Four of six Fresno wins in WAC have been by three or less point, with Fresno 0-3 as home fave, even though they're 4-0 at home (1,7,7,3 points.)

Santa Clara is 5-2 in WCC, Portland 2-5, with three losses in row, but Pilots are 2-0 in WCC, with wins by 10,17 points, and 4-1 vs spread in last five contests. Broncos are 3-0 as WCC dog, winning all three of the league road games SU

LMU and San Diego are both 2-5 in WCC; Toreros have played five of seven games on road, however. Lions lost five of last six games, with their last four Ls all by 11+ points. San Diego lost its last three games, but won 68-65 at LMU in first meeting of season.

Utah State won and covered its last four games, all by 24+ points; Aggies are 2-2 as road favorite; they won first meeting vs Cal Poly 76-65. Mustangs are just 2-8 in Big West, but covered three of last four games; they are 2-1 as home underdog in league play.

Idaho is 0-4 on Big West road, with losses by 4,9,1,1 points; underdog covered all four games. Vandals won first meeting 61-50 at home. UCSB is 4-1 at home in league, with all four wins by 7+ points. Home team is 7-3 vs spread in their Big West games.

Pacific is 10-0 in Big West; their closest call came in 67-65 at Irvine, as 3-point favorite. Anteaters are 4-1 in last five games, 3-2 on Big West road; three of their five league losses are by more than 13 points. Tigers are 2-3 as home fave, with only one win by 14+ points

Fullerton is 2-2 on Big West road, with wins by 3 and 6 points; they're 3-2 as favorite in league, with one of losses 74-71 home win over Riverside, as 8-point fave UCR lost three of last four games; they're 4-2 as dog in Big West games, and 3-1 SU in home games.

Northridge is 7-3 in Big West, but only two of seven wins are by more than 15 points; they beat this foe by 16 in first meeting, 69-53. Long Beach is 1-8 in league 0-5 on road, with losses by 7,6,17,3,20 points; they're 2-3 as road dog in Big West games.

SMU is 4-5 in WAC, but only one of their five losses is by more than 10 points; they're 2-3 on road, with the losses by 2,1,12 points. Nevada is 7-2 in WAC, with road team covering eight of the nine games; they're 1-4 as home favorite, with wins by 15,3,18 points.

UCLA was down 36-21 at half in first meeting against Washington State, before rallying to win in double OT they're 5-1 as Pac-10 dog, 4-1 on road. Wash State lost three of last four games, but they ended 18-year losing streak to Arizona in their last game- they're 2-2 at home in Pac-10 games.

Erratic Arizona lost to Wazoo Saturday, 40 hours after great win over Washington; they're 7-2 in Pac-10, but their last five wins are all by nine or less points. Cal is on three-game win streak, after 1-5 start in the league; they lost first meeting at home to Arizona, 87-67.

Charleston is 4-1 as Southern Conference home fave, with only one of the wins by more than 15 points; the home team is 7-2 vs spread in their league games, with Cougars 7-2 SU. Western Carolina is 2-7 in league,
1-2 as road dog, with losses by 5,20,12 and 7 points.

Citadel lost three of last four games; they're 3-2 as dog on road, with losses by 9,24,10,22 points. App State is 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 2,11,8 points; the underdog is 6-2 vs spread in their Southern Conf tilts.

Loyola is 2-8 in MAAC, losing last five games in row, with four of the losses by 11+ points; they're 3-2 as a home dog, with losses by 4,14,20 points. Fairfield got drilled by Manhattan last time out; they're 5-2 as fave in league, with road wins by 11,1,3 points.

Austin Peay won its last two games and is 5-3 in OVC but six of eight games were at home; they're 0-2 away from home, losing by 12,13 points. Jacksonville State is 0-8 in league, 0-4 at home, with losses by 4,24,4,16 points. Road team is 7-1 vs spread in their OVC tilts.

Tennessee Tech is 7-1 in OVC, 2-1 on road, with two of those three games going OT; they are 5-0-1 against spread in last six games. Samford lost last two games after 6-0 start; they're 3-0 at home in league, with wins by 11,8,3 points (1-2 as home favorite).

Eastern Illinois is 3-5 in league, winning three of last 4 games, but they're 0-4 on OVC road, with losses by 14, 4,19 and 15 points. Murray State is 6-2 in league, 4-4 vs spread; they're 3-0 at home, with wins by 22,2 and 8 points.

SE Missouri won its last three games; they're 0-3 on road in league, but covered four of five as favorite in OVC. UT-Martin is 1-7 in OVC, losing last five games in row, with three of last four losses by 24+ pts; they're 0-4 vs spread in OVC home games.

Eastern Kentucky won its last three games, all by 12+ points; they're 2-2 on OVC road. Tennessee State lost its last three games and is 4-4 in league, but six of the eight were on road. TSU is 2-0 at home in league, with wins by 4,15 points.

Montana won three of last four games; they're 2-1 as a home favorite, with wins by 4,12 points; they lost first meeting at Weber State, 76-62. Weber is 0-4 as road dog in Big Sky, with losses by 11,15,6,24 points. Four of their five league losses are by 9+ points, with home team covering seven of their eight league games.

Idaho State is 2-5 in Big Sky, 0-2 on road, with losses by 2,18 points; they lost 74-66 at home to Bobcats in first meeting. Montana State is 5-2 in league, winning both home games by 3,20 points. Three of Idaho St's last four losses are by eight or less points.

Portland State is 6-2 in Big Sky and underdog for first time in league this season; they beat Northern Arizona 91-78 in first meeting. Lumberjacks are 2-5 in league, with home team covering all seven games; they won their only two BigSky home games by 15,18 points.

Today's Tips:
South Alabama, -1.5-- Arkansas-Little Rock's five-OT loss Sunday was third in row for Trojans, who lost two of three on road, are 4-4 in Sun Belt. Tough to bounce back vs South Alabama squad that is 3-2 in last five games; favorite is 3-0-1 in their Sun Belt home games. 30 pelphreys on the USA Jaguars, -1.5

Sacramento State, -3-- Hornets are 3-0 at home in Big Sky, with wins by 2,6,4 points; home side won all seven league games with Hornets 3-4 SU, 5-2 vs spread; they lost 44-41 at Eastern Washington in first meeting. EWU is 1-2 as underdog, 4-3 SU in league, with losses by 11,5,10. 30 jenkins on Hornets, -3.

[Spark]

Thursday's games
Game of the Day:
Cavaliers @ Heat-- Cavs are 5-1 vs spread in games following last six losses; they lost 92-86 at this site on Nov 4th, and failed to cover last five they had a game night before. Heat won 11 of last 13 home games, with last five games going over total; they covered the game after each of their last four losses.

Elsewhere, Clippers won four of last five games; they're 0-6 in last six road games (3-3 vs spread)under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Grizzlies won 15 of last 18 games; they're now #6 seed in West, after surge under Fratello- they're 15-4 vs spread in their last nineteen games.

Lakers on stretch where they haven't left Staples in last 18 days, with "road" game at Clippers. Chaos surrounds LA team, with Rudy T. quitting and Jackson rumored to be coming back. Spurs won seven of last eight games, are 5-1 vs spread in their last six; they're 2-0 vs Lakers this season, winning by 9,17 points.