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Super Bowl Trends

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  • #1

    Super Bowl Trends

    Here's some trends and things I have found in different places.
    I hope they are useful to some.

    Favorites in the Super Bowl are 26-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-16-3, 54.3%.

    Double digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.

    The SU winner is 31-4-3 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls, so if you're taking the dog, you may as well take the money line.

    The NFC holds a 21-17 SU and 19-16-3 ATS edge all time, but is just 2-5-2 ATS in the last nine games.

    The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-6-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowl games.

    The team with the better record going in to the game is 26-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-lost marks)
    Remember the three R's:
    Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Halftime Trends

    The team that wins the game SU owns a 27-10 ATS first half mark.

    The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-5-3 ATS mark in the first half.

    The first half favorite is 20-18 ATS in the 38 previous Super Bowls.

    53.2% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games.

    Over/Under Trends

    As noted earlier, there have been 46.1 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl. Analyzing since just '85, that total increases to 53.2 PPG! Furthermore, there hasn't been a Super Bowl game with less than 36 total points scored since 1975, when Pittsburgh beat Minnesota 16-6.

    The average total posted for the 20 Super Bowl Games since '85 is 46.3, representing a 4.8 point increase over non-Super Bowl games played within that same time frame.

    In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.

    Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.

    The highest scoring quarter is the second quarter, 503 points (13.2 PPG). Super Bowl XXXVIII saw 24 points scored in the 2nd quarter's final four minutes.

    The lowest scoring total is the first quarter, 326 points (8.6 PPG). The first quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII held true to this trend, going scoreless
    Remember the three R's:
    Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

    Comment

    • #3
      Teaser Trends

      The underdog owns just a 22-15-1 ATS Six-Point Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls, a very low conversion percentage in terms of normal Teaser line success.

      The favorite is 27-11 ATS in Teaser plays.
      Remember the three R's:
      Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

      Comment

      • #4
        AFC vs. NFC: The NFC holds a 21-17 straight up edge over the AFC. Also, the NFC is 20-15 against the spread with three pushes against its foe. However, the AFC has gone 5-3 SU and an impressive 5-1-2 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.



        The biggest margin of victory for the AFC was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a three-point favorite. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 21 Super Bowl’s by double-digits. It’s largest chest pounding came in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory
        Remember the three R's:
        Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

        Comment

        • #5
          Favorite vs. Underdog: If you’re looking to make a money-line play on the game, perhaps you should look for value. The favorite has gone 24-14 SU and 18-17-3 ATS. An upset is very possible, but the chalk has still been winning outright at a 63 percent clip. Check out this stat! Only six times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number. This number includes three pushes and last year’s Patriots 32-29 victory over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, which saw the Panthers cover as seven-point underdogs.



          ‘Dog players should definitely give the money line a shot. The Eagles are a promising plus-220 (Bet $100 to win $220) ticket, while chalk eaters can bang the Patriots at a price of minus-300 (Bet $300 to win $100). The N.Y. Jets still remain the biggest underdog to win outright after upsetting Indianapolis 16-7 as a 17-point ‘dog in Super Bowl III.
          Remember the three R's:
          Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

          Comment

          • #6
            Over vs. Under:
            Oddsmakers didn’t start creating totals until 1982 when San Francisco and Cincinnati clashed in Super Bowl XVI. Sure enough, this game was the only total landed on the closing number of 47, as the Niners beat the Bengals, 26-21. In the other 22 contests with a total, the fans have gotten to see some fireworks. The ‘over’ is a solid 15-7 (66%), including six out of the last eight big games.



            The total opened at 47, but has since been pushed to 48. You really can’t blame oddsmakers in this spot, since the championship round saw the ‘over’ cash twice. Also, the ‘over’
            Remember the three R's:
            Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

            Comment

            • #7
              Parlay Combinations: The Super Bowl will crown a champion and will also close the book on pro football wagering for the year, unless you’re looking to get a fix on the Pro Bowl. Some might think it’s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be looked at as a shot in the dark. As stated earlier, totals were only posted in 1982, but we still have a sample of 23 games to see which combination happened more often than others.



              Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public’s guessing game. However, the combination of ‘favorite/over’ has occured in nine of the last 23 Super Bowl games. That’s an incredible 40 percent for laying the wood in a shootout. The ‘underdog/over’ and ‘underdog/under’ both posted identical numbers, hitting five times each. The least likely combination to happen since 1982 has been the ‘favorite/under’, which happened once. The only instance happened in Super Bowl XVIII, when Dallas stifled Buffalo 30-13 as a 10 1/2-point favorite. The combined 43 points dipped ‘under’ the closing total of 50.
              Remember the three R's:
              Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

              Comment

              • #8
                Dome vs. Grass:
                Alltel Stadium holds 73,000, which is the 10th largest football venue in the league. This game will be played on grass for just the third time in the last six years. Most people would expect the indoor track to feature a faster game and the opposite with playing on grass. However, six of the last seven Super Bowls have easily eclipsed the ‘over’ when played outdoors.



                Keep an eye on weather during the next two weeks, as the projected forecast is expected between the sixties and seventies with scattered showers in the area. The Patriots and Eagles have made a combined five appearances in the Super Bowl. Surprisingly, four of the five games were being in domes. You can make a case that all five contests were played indoors, since last year’s game was played at Reliant Stadium, which has a retractable r
                Remember the three R's:
                Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Point-spread trends

                  AFC teams are 5-3-2 ATS record in the last 10 Super Bowls.
                  The NFC and AFC teams have been favored five times each over the last 10 Super Bowls.
                  Underdogs are 4-3-2 ATS since Super Bowl *** and have covered in two of the last three.
                  Only the 1997-98 Denver Broncos and 2001-2002 New England Patriots have won as double-digit underdogs since Super Bowl ***.
                  The average point spread since Super Bowl *** (including this year’s) has been 8.8.
                  The average margin of victory in the past 10 Super Bowls has been 13.6. Five were decided by double-digit margins, three by at least 23.
                  Remember the three R's:
                  Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Total trends


                    Six championship games have resulted in overs since Super Bowl *** including the last two.
                    Two of the last four Super Bowl totals have been broken by a single team’s point total (Tampa Bay in 2003 and Baltimore in 2001).
                    The average total on Super Bowls since 1996 (including this year’s) has been 46 ½.
                    The average number of points scored in the last 10 Super Bowls is 53
                    Remember the three R's:
                    Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      New England’s betting trends


                      Including the postseason, the Patriots went 13-3-2 ATS this year and posted a 9-8-1 O/U record.
                      New England is 3-2 ATS in their last five postseason contests.
                      The Patriots are 1-1 ATS in their last two Super Bowl appearances and have a 1-1 O/U record.
                      The Pats have grabbed the cash in their last four straight games.
                      Three of New England’s last four games have resulted in unders.


                      Philadelphia's betting trends

                      Including the postseason, the Eagles went 11-7 ATS this year and posted a 5-12-1 O/U record.
                      The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games.
                      Philly has dropped the cash in four of its last six contests.
                      The under is 4-1-1 in the Eagles last six tilts
                      Remember the three R's:
                      Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Sunday, February 6th
                        Super Bowl XXXIX
                        Jacksonville, Florida
                        New England vs. Philadelphia, 6:05 EST
                        Game Preview


                        New England Patriots:
                        11-3 ATS off a win
                        9-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

                        Philadelphia Eagles:
                        11-2 Under off a win
                        6-0 Under playing with rest
                        GOOD LUCK ALL !!!!!!!!!!!!!
                        If you lose you are a degenerate....If you win you are a handicapper

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Thank for the great info. buddy!!!
                          Good luck today!!!!!
                          "Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."

                          Comment

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