Question to all! Public Side %???

[CHICHImomo]

Question to all.

In general, do you think the Public betting % of 50%+ or more favoring one side on any wagers (side and total) has a winning record or losing record?

What I'm basically saying, if you played against the public % every night (meaning you take the opposite side that the majority of the public is on) do you think you would come out on the positive side or the negative side??

Also, do you believe in TRAP games?

Any input is appreciated. Thanks.

[lmercer213]

I definitely believe in Trap plays, I can't avoid them !!!
I also think you'd be less than 60 % on against the public, but I have zero stats to back that up

[frankb03]

It's of my opinion that the public loses as a whole. Do they loss often enough to 'blindly' fade them? NO. My guess! public wins around 48-50%. I highly doubt the public wins only 40-45%.

I don't believe in trap plays. I don't believe the line makers in Vegas go through the list of games and decide make a certain game a 'trap'. The game is still played on the field. Vegas DOES NOT know the outcome of that game in advance.

[CHICHImomo]

?

When you say less than 60%, meaning i would have a winning percentage in the long run?

Also if you do belive in trap games, how do you go about spotting them, any indications? (i.e. slow line movement, opposite line movement according to betting %, no movement at all with heavy siding to one team, etc.).

When Vegas puts opens lines, do you think they open the lines according to the way the public will react? For instance if they believe Dallas is going to be a heavy favorite (public will jump on them) and win by 7, they open the line at -8 for Dallas so they get a lot of action on Dallas and the opposing team that no one bets on ****** by a point. Or do you just believe that Vegas wants equal distribution of action so they can eat up juice?

[frankb03]

When Vegas puts opens lines, do you think they open the lines according to the way the public will react? For instance if they believe Dallas is going to be a heavy favorite (public will jump on them) and win by 7, they open the line at -8 for Dallas so they get a lot of action on Dallas and the opposing team that no one bets on ****** by a point. Or do you just believe that Vegas wants equal distribution of action so they can eat up juice?

There's no doubt that vegas set lines on how they think the public will react. The past few years the lines on the Laker game were inflated. They know the public loves playing a winner.

Vegas wants equal action. I know there some that disagree. They don't want the nightmare they had with Sunday's Philly/Atlanta game. They opened the total at 42. It was bet be down to 37. The game ended on 37. The public was the clear winner with that bet.

[Spark]

Frank.. You hit it right there ... Vegas does want equal money ... Linemakers do make errors and Vegas loses .. I also agree with you on the percentage of the public losing ... 48%-50%... But I am a firm believer when a play is lopsided I want to be on the books side ...You need a system on when to follow and when to fade ... who to follow and who to fade ... No need to cap your own games if you know what you are doing ..

[lmercer213]

not sure if this is a trap or what to call it, but i've seen the public heavy on one team and then the line keeps moving to entice people to bet the team already heavily wagered on. If vegas wanted equal action, wouldn't they adjust the line to make it more appealing to bet the team with less wagers? How do you explain it?
when i said you wouldn't hit 60% i meant on the long run you wouldn't be very profitable because when you lose you have to pay juice.

[tommyh893]

i used to track plays against the public last year and they hit very well-- when the consenus was 70% or more on any nba team i would bet against the public every chance i had and my record was 22-9 (i didn't do this everynight, only when i noticed them) also-- this year i have been betting on cbb teams when the public is 75% or more on one team and thats been hitting at around 59%.


This technique is hard to use. You must keep track of how the picks are doing every day and you'll see trends develop.
also, i certainly believe in trap games, fading what looks to good can be very profitable.

GL

ps-- if anyone is looking for a new book i recommend bodog, bank transfer payouts have been very smooth with these guys and i promised a friend i'd put in a good word for them ( he's an executive there) -- if you're looking to sign up let me know.

[frankb03]

lmercer, heavy public and heavy money? Two different things. You'd have to give me an example.

Also, sometimes Vegas can't adjust the line enough. Once again I refer to Sunday's Eagles game. They moved the total 5 points. However, there was no way they would have move that total below 37 with 37 being a key total number. Vegas is very leery about adjusting the line off or on key numbers. They don't want to get middled.

[garth]

not sure if this is a trap or what to call it, but i've seen the public heavy on one team and then the line keeps moving to entice people to bet the team already heavily wagered on. If vegas wanted equal action, wouldn't they adjust the line to make it more appealing to bet the team with less wagers? How do you explain it?
when i said you wouldn't hit 60% i meant on the long run you wouldn't be very profitable because when you lose you have to pay juice.

lmercer,
You may be confusing the percentage of bets and the amount of money bet on that side. Those are two entirely different entities. If 80% of the wagers are on one side and 80% of the money is on the other, that often is why the line starts to look more enticing for the public favorite. The goal is to get equal money on each side of the wager, not to get 50% of the bets on each side of the wager. just my .02. keep the change.

[lmercer213]

heavy public, heavy money, i understand the difference but the site I use only gives out total wagers not the total amount wagered, sorry if i worded it wrong.
not an actual example.
Mizzou @ KU KU -4, the public is heavy on KU like 2-1 wagers
then the line moves to KU -3, which gives you extra point betting KU.
I don't understand line moves like this,
and if there are twice as many wagers on ku, but the more money wagered on mizzou, what can you take away from that?

[garth]

What you can take away from that is that collectively the people wagering on Mizzou have a lot more money to bet than those who are wagering on KU. You're right. That information is not directly available to us. We have to infer it from the line movements you describe. .

[garth]

I should say you have to infer it from the line movement and the percentages you describe. Just looking at one or the other doesn't make any difference. If you look at consensus picks on *********, it looks like public favorites hit about 50% of the time. Not much future in just blindly fading the public consistently. I know ********* is a small sample, so that 50% has to be taken with a grain of salt. If it worked all the time, everyone would be doing it and then the faders would become the consensus. Damn, that line of thought gave me a f*&^in headache.

[psmitty]

i would say stay clear of breaking down the percenteges of the publics money.... vegas has good and bad nights.... last night was a good example ill. got pounded from a pick to -3 they win by 10 vegas looses money...but that is one game , vegas wins in the long run because bettors play to many games and start chasing.. for example this past nfl season i found myself playing alot of 4 o'clock games why??? not because i liked the games, but because i lost my early plays and wanted some action.. that's what vegas counts on your desire for the action... if you can't control it they gotcha...there are so many options everynight stay patient and pick your spots.. but don't change your mind because the betting public is on your side somebody might know more than you.... ( i will say i pay attention to natl tv games and high profile match ups where one side is really being touted... the more visible the game, the more action vegas takes in, the more they look for the edge....for example sometimes they will move the number opposite of the money comming in to try and trap the last minute players...)

[linemover]

vegas doesnt lose money-dont try and figure it out-but they do not lose because they have even money=wiseguys vs public=even money-juice money