Middling games question

[jackal]

Ok, i know in football when middling games people look for spread differences of at least 1.5 points...

my question is for college basketball or the NBA.

lets say you bet a team that is -10...

they go up 25 at halftime (score:65 to 40)

the 2nd half line is your team +5.

this means that if you bet against them in the 2nd half, if they win by anywhere from 10 to 20 (11-19 you collect both bets) you make money.

what size gap do you need to do something like this?

is it smart to do it at all?

[RJeremy]

i usually would NEVER break up an almost guaranteed winner. just enjoy the rest of the game in the club house with a cigar.

it would suck if you buy back half or all of your already looking great winner because you want to try and middle it. and then end up losing the 2nd half of it.

[RJeremy]

it's like splitting face cards..........don't do it!

[jackal]

thanks for the reply...

i understand where you are coming from.

Maybe it can be different with totals? NBA i see very often 2 teams will come out (for example if the total is 200) and just score 85 points between each other, then light up the 2nd half for 115-120 or more...

and vice versa. they will score a ton of points in the first half and then cool off in the 2nd half.

[phonepole]

RJ do I detect another..... Blackjack aficionado???? Ever play online, got any good sites or favorite land casinos??

Can anybody find the 2nd half NBA system posted a month or so ago for Jackal? I looked couldn't find it yet....

[RJeremy]

Jackal,

I posted a 2nd half NBA system that I've been using for about 2 years now. I posted it in the beginning of the NBA season and I know a couple guys were using it pretty consistantely.

Here's the short version. For NBA totals, they usually (80 - 90%) will get within 10 points of the original total. This is for TOTALS ONLY and NBA ONLY!! The linesmakers are very good at setting the totals. So, if you have a total of 200 for example, and the first half score is 42-38, this gives you 80 total points. Then for the 2nd half, they make the total 95, you would want to take the 2nd half over. If they hit the 95 for the 2nd half, it is still only 175 for the game, and 25 less than the original total. Like I said they usually get pretty close to the ORIGINAL total that was listed. This also works in oposite way too. If the total is 180 for example and the score is 65-55 at the half, then you will take the under second half, which would probably be around 95.

*** Also, check the opening total and see which way the line movement was throughout the day. If, in the first example the over opened at 197 and moved up throughout the day to 200, then the big money moved that line up, and for whatever reason they shit the bed the first half, but most likely will score a ton the 2nd half.

This system hit around 63%-65% last year in the NBA.

HOPE THIS HELPS!!!!!!

[frankb03]

I don't do so very often but I do disagree with RJ. IMO trying to catch a middle is a very wise investment. Making the second wager is risk free. If the opportunity is there take it.

Last season Coverboy and I hit a huge middle in a NBA game with the total. The windows to hit both bets was huge.

[lmercer213]

I disagree with frank, saying its risk free is untrue, your essentially lowering your original wager, hoping you will hit inside a limited range of numbers!

[frankb03]

I disagree with frank, saying its risk free is untrue, your essentially lowering your original wager, hoping you will hit inside a limited range of numbers!

lmercer, Don't get me wrong. I've been on both sides. I've had the opportunity to place a 2nd wager but have decided to 'let it ride'. At other times I've made the 2nd wager.

You are potentially lowering you original WINNING wager with the opportunity to win more without any additional risk. Also, there's still the risk that you'll lose your original wager. By placing the 2nd bet you're also reducing your original risk.

Minimize risks! Increase profit potential.

[jackal]

Ok, say a total is 200, and you bet the overs for $500..

the first half score is 60-55 for a total of 115.

The 2nd half over under is 105. you bet the under for $250

for quicker calculations I wont count in any juice.

For you to hit both bets and win $750 the total of the games needs to come anywhere 86 and 104 thats a range of 19 points.

For you to win just $250 the 2nd half would have to go over the 105 2nd half line

For you to lose $250 the 2nd half would have to stay under 85 (winning the 2nd h bet and losing the game over bet).

Since you have a huge range of 19 points to play with there are 3 outcomes to your bet:

+750
+250
-250

There has to be some kind of limit that the total can land on for this ill say the 2nd half total can be as low as 65 to as high as 130 (granted if the game goes to multi OTs this could change.

The range of 65 to 130 only has a range of 65 (which is only about 4 different ranges of 19). One range you win 750, another range u win 250 and the other 2 you lose 250.

add up the wins and subtract the losses you get a +500 no matter what

if you figure that the game is gonna come closer to the totals (there has to be some kind of a bell curve for this), your prob looking at a $600-$650 return every 4 bets.

maybe im looking too deep into this.

[RJeremy]

jackal,

i mostly use this system for over/unders that I don't even have an original bet on for the game. I keep an eye on the scores at halftime, and see if there is any good opportunities to make a 2nd half bet. Again, it is not going to be a good opportunity for every single game.

frank,

again, i disagree. if you have a game where the over is 200 and the halftime is 120, why would you want to risk breaking up a game that is almost a guaranteed winner. yea, you're saying you won't lose both, but no need to break that up, or else you shouldn't have made the bet in the first place.

[frankb03]

Giving your example above I would make a 2nd half wager. However, if my initial bet was $500 I'd might play $100 for the 2nd half. I'd increase my 2nd half wager amount as the window for hitting both plays open further.

[jackal]

good example.

duke/maryland total is 157.5

first half duke leads 34-30

2nd half total is 81.5

meaning if you have already bet the under. you come back and bet the over

giving you a range of 12 to hit both bets. seems like a good bet for NCAA as half totals arent as high as NBA totals. we shall see.