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**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:02 PM

Atlanta Falcons (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Sunday, 3 p.m. EST

Coaches' playoff records: Jim Mora, Atlanta, 1-0 Andy Reid, Philadelphia, 6-4

Last meeting: November 2, 2003 at Atlanta Donovan McNabb passed for 312 yards and a touchdown to lead the Eagles to a 23-16 victory. McNabb completed 21-of-33 passes, including a 37-yard touchdown pass to Freddie Mitchell in the first quarter. McNabb's big game helped the Eagles rack up 430 total yards and 24 first downs. T.J. Duckett scored on a one-yard run in the second quarter and Jay Feely kicked three goals for Atlanta, which played without quarterback Michael Vick due to a broken leg. In the first half, the Falcons held a 163-127 advantage in total yards. But it was a different story in the second half when the Eagles outgained the Falcons by a lopsided 303-115.

Falcons' playoff road: Vick, Warrick Dunn and Allen Rossum ran circles around the St. Louis Rams in a dominating 47-17 rout in the divisional round. Playing a home playoff game for the first time in his four-year career, Vick set a postseason record for quarterbacks by rushing for 119 yards on just eight carries. He completed 12-of-16 passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Dunn, the complement to Duckett's power for the NFL's top-rushing team, had 126 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries in the first half, helping the Falcons build a 28-17 lead. He finished with 142 yards on 17 attempts. Atlanta rushed for 239 of its 327 yards in the first half. Rossum carried the special teams, setting a postseason record with 152 punt return yards. The speedster had a 68-yard punt return for a score in the second quarter and added punt returns of 45 and 39 yards after intermission.

Eagles' playoff road: McNabb passed for 286 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-14 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round. A Pro Bowler, McNabb nearly was flawless in the first half, completing 16-of-22 passes for 209 yards and two scores when the Eagles built a 21-7 lead. Freddie Mitchell, who moved into a starting role after Terrell Owens was injured in a December 19 game, caught a two-yard scoring pass from McNabb in the first quarter and recovered a fumble by tight end L.J. Smith in the end zone for another score in the second quarter. Mitchell finished with five catches for 65 yards. Brian Westbrook also figured prominently for the Eagles, rushing for 70 yards on just 12 carries and catching five passes for 47 yards, including a seven-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Eagles' secondary, which features three Pro Bowlers - cornerback Lito Sheppard and safeties Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis - put the clamps on Randy Moss, who finished with three catches for 51 yards.

Atlanta offense vs. Philadelphia defense ---------------------------------------- Key Matchups: QB Michael Vick vs. NFL's 10th-ranked pass defense RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett vs. NFL's 16th-ranked rush defense TE Alge Crumpler vs. SS Michael Lewis RT Todd Weiner vs. LE Jevon Kearse C Todd McClure vs. MLB Jeremiah Trotter

The Falcons' offense revolves around Vick, who is the NFL's fastest quarterback and is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. Vick will face numerous blitzes and should use play fakes to neutralize the Eagles' aggressive linebackers, which could lead to big plays in the passing game for Crumpler. Along with Vick, Dunn and Duckett helped the Falcons become the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense. Dunn provides the speed out of the backfield and better pass-catching skills than Duckett, who is the power back. There is little doubt that the Falcons, who rushed for 327 yards in their divisional playoff game, will test the Eagles on the ground. Philadelphia struggled against the run earlier this season before Trotter moved in at middle linebacker.

Philadelphia offense vs. Atlanta defense ---------------------------------------- Key Matchups: QB Donovan McNabb vs. NFL's 22nd-ranked pass defense RB Brian Westbrook vs. NFL's 8th-ranked rush defense RT Jon Runyan vs. LE Patrick Kerney WR Freddie Mitchell vs. LCB DeAngelo Hall TEs L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis vs. SS Bryan Scott

It was thought that McNabb would be more aggressive as a runner when star receiver Terrell Owens went down with an ankle injury late in the regular season. But in the divisional round, McNabb opted to stay in the pocket and rushed only three times for three yards. McNabb may be forced to make more plays outside of the pocket in this contest since the Falcons' pass rush is superior to that of the Vikings. McNabb's outlet in the passing game is the speedy Westbrook, who provides mismatches when he is matched against a linebacker. Without his deep threat in Owens, McNabb still took his shots downfield against Minnesota. He had a 52-yard completion to Greg Lewis and Todd Pinkston drew a 46-yard interference penalty. McNabb also continued to spread the ball, completing passes to seven different receivers. The play of Runyan and Tra Thomas will be essential since defensive ends Kerney and Brady Smith are a pair of speed rushers. Runyan also could be hindered since he suffered a sprained MCL in his knee in the final minute last week.

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:03 PM

New England Patriots (15-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (16-1) at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST

Coaches' playoff records: Bill Belichick, New England, 8-1 Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh, 8-8

Last meeting: October 31, 2004 at Pittsburgh Rookie Ben Roethlisberger connected with Plaxico Burress on a pair of touchdown passes and Deshea Townsend returned an interception 39 yards for a score in a 21-point first quarter as the Steelers posted a 34-20 victory. Duce Staley rushed for 125 yards on 25 carries and Jerome Bettis added 65 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Tom Brady hit David Givens with a pair of touchdowns, but committed three turnovers - two interceptions and a fumble for New England.

Patriots playoff road: Corey Dillon rushed for 144 yards and the Patriots prevented Peyton Manning from throwing even one touchdown pass in a 20-3 victory over Indianapolis in the divisional playoff. The Patriots held the NFL's highest-scoring offense (522 points) to 276 total yards and forced three turnovers. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi recovered two fumbles and forced one. Brady passed for a touchdown and ran for another score.

Steelers playoff road: Jeff Reed's 33-yard field goal 11:04 into overtime lifted the Steelers to a 20-17 victory over the New York Jets in the divisional playoffs. New York's Doug Brien missed field-goal attempts of 47 and 43 yards in the final 2:02 of regulation. The Steelers rushed for 193 yards. Bettis led the way with 101 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries and Hines Ward caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a score.

New England offense vs. Pittsburgh defense ------------------------------------------

Key Matchups: QB Tom Brady vs. NFL's 4th-ranked pass defense RB Corey Dillon vs. NFL's top-ranked run defense RG Stephen Neal vs. LILB James Farrior TE Daniel Graham vs. SS Troy Polamalu WR David Givens vs. RCB Deshea Townsend

The Steelers are ranked No. 1 in the league against the run, but the Patriots will make sure Corey Dillon gets his 20-plus carries. Dillon missed the first meeting between the teams and the Pats produced just five yards on six carries. When the Pats line up in four-receiver sets, the Steelers will unleash the blitz. Right outside linebacker Joey Porter gave New England's line fits in the first meeting. Left tackle Matt Light needs to watch Porter from the edge. Look for Brady to pick on 34-year-old cornerback Willie Williams with his fleet of speedy receivers.

Pittsburgh offense vs. New England defense ------------------------------------------

Key Matchups: QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. NFL's 17th-ranked pass defense RBs Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley vs. NFL's 6th-ranked run defense LG Alan Faneca vs. RILB Ted Johnson RG Keydrick Vincent vs. LILB Tedy Bruschi WR Plaxico Burress vs. RCB Asante Samuel

The Steelers will try to pound away on the ground with Bettis and Staley. Belichick will stack the box with safety Rodney Harrison and the linebackers. That will force rookie Ben Roethlisberger to pass more than Cowher would like. Against Belichick's disguised coverages, that usually translates to interceptions. Burress caught a pair of touchdown passes in the first meeting and will need to use his 6-5 size again. However, Burress was a non-factor in last week's playoff win over the Jets. Hines Ward is Pittsburgh's best possession receiver and will need to make an impact. Linebackers Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest will try to confuse Roethlisberger with underneath coverages

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:04 PM

NFL Notes
January 18, 2005
Larry Ness
VegasInsider.com

Home teams won all four of the Divisional Round games this past weekend, 'covering' three! Atlanta won by 30 points, New England by 17 and Philadelphia by 13. While Pittsburgh needed overtime to edge the New York Jets by a field goal, the Steelers did hold the Jets WITHOUT an offensive TD!...
After THREE of the four visiting teams had won during the wild card games the previous weekend and last year's Divisional Round games saw all four road teams 'cover' (2-2 SU), it was quite a comeback for home-team dominance....
While I'll have a more in-depth look at the AFC and NFC title games in Friday's column, here's a quick peek ahead....
Will the home teams fare as well this Sunday in their respective conference title games? Maybe not? Home teams have not been particularly dominant in this round since 1990, as each conference has seen the home team go just 8-6 over the last 14 years. Actually, from 1990 through 1996, home teams were dominant winning 10 of the 14 games, including two-game sweeps in the years 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1996....
In 1997, BOTH road teams (Denver at Pittsburgh and Green Bay at San Francisco) won in the same season for the ONLY time since 1990. Over the last six years, the conference title games have seen one visiting team and one home team win!...
The NFC avoided a real DISASTER, as neither one of the two 8-8 teams still 'alive' heading into last weekend's play (Minnesota and St Louis) advanced to Sunday's title game. Clearly the two-best teams in the conference, in what has been a very 'down' year for the NFC, are the 11-5 Falcons and the 13-3 Eagles....
As for the AFC, New England at Pittsburgh is a 'dream' game! New England is of course the winner of two of the last three Super Bowls, while the 2004 Steelers became just the fourth team in NFL history to complete a 16-game schedule with a 15-1 mark. In fact, the two teams' combined record of 29-3 (New England was 14-2), ties them with the 1998 NFC Championship Game (14-2 Atlanta at 15-1 Minnesota), for the best-ever combined records of two title-game participants!...
The good news for both conferences is that in each case, its No. 1 and No. 2 seed has advanced to the title game. That's nothing new when it comes to the NFC, as that was the case in 10 of the first 11 years beginning in 1990 (when the league expanded to a 12-team format). This year's match-up makes it 12 times in 15 years, that No. 1 has met No. 2 in the NFC title game...
In the AFC it hasn't been as prevalent as this year's match-up of No. 1 vs No. 2, marks just the SEVENTH time that's happened in the 15 seasons since 1990. It's just the SIXTH time in 15 years that BOTH conferences feature meetings between the top-two seeds....
History shows that in the 11 previous NFC meetings between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, the No.1 seed has prevailed six times. As for the AFC, the No. 1 seed has beaten the No. 2 seed, in four of the six previous meetings....
BOTH home teams bring more than a little 'baggage' into this Sunday's title games. For the Eagles, it's their FOURTH consecutive NFC Championship Game (a record third-straight at home!). As EVERYONE knows, the Eagles have yet to win one!...
While the Steelers haven't been THAT BAD, they have gone 1-3 in four previous AFC Championship Games under Bill Cowher. Making that record even worse, just like Sunday's game vs. the Pats, all four of those previous title games were played in Pittsburgh (so much for the home field advantage!)....

HOME DOGS?....Since 1990, there have been just four home underdogs in conference title games prior to the Steelers this Sunday (Pittsburgh is plus-3 at home vs New England). As mentioned earlier, in 1997 Denver won at Pittsburgh 24-21 as a 2 1/2-point road favorite and Green Bay won at San Francisco 23-10, also as a 2 1/2-point favorite. In the 1992 AFC title game, Buffalo won at Miami 29-10 as a 2 1/2-point road favorite and in the 2000 NFC title game, the New York Giants won 41-0 over Minnesota as a 2 1/2-point home dog....

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:05 PM

Harmon Forecast

Conference Championships - Sunday, Jan. 23, 2005
*Philadelphia 29 Atlanta 23 - The Falcons' run-happy offense worked like a charm against the Rams, who couldn't stop the run all season, and Michael Vick will no doubt put on another show in Philly, but Atlanta hasn't proved it can mix it up enough to beat the Eagles. Philly has taken three straight in the series, most recently 23-16 last year in Atlanta, but its experience in four straight conference title games will be the key.
New England 21 *Pittsburgh 19 - The Patriots' Tom Brady made it clear on Sunday that he was tired of hearing Peyton this and Peyton that, and now he calmly faces his next challenge: paying the Steelers back for ending N.E.'s 21-game winning streak in Week Eight. It won't happen if Brady doesn't get lots of help from his offensive line, because the Patriots will need more than the five rushing yards they managed in Pittsburgh on Halloween.
* - Home Team

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:06 PM

NFL Computer Predictions

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Sunday, January 23, 2005

Atlanta Falcons (+4½) at Philadelphia Eagles [NFC Championship]

Power Rating Projection:

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections

Atlanta Falcons 18

Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 165
Turnovers: 2 Philadelphia Eagles 22

Rushing Yards: 96
Passing Yards: 277
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Atlanta Falcons 14

New England Patriots(-2½) at Pittsburgh Steelers [AFC Championship]

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 25 New England Patriots 24
Statistical Projections

New England Patriots 21

Rushing Yards: 110
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Rushing Yards: 147
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 New England Patriots 27
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 star)

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:07 PM

NFL Playoff Common Opponents

Conference Championship: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons
vs Carolina Panthers 12/18/2004 Favorite by 3½ Won 34-31 No Cover
at New York Giants 11/21/2004 Favorite by 3 Won 14-10 Cover
Total Points 48-41

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Philadelphia Eagles
vs Carolina Panthers 10/17/2004 Favorite by 10 Won 30-8 Cover
at New York Giants 11/28/2004 Favorite by 7 Won 27-6 Cover
Total Points 57-14

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Conference Championship: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
vs Baltimore Ravens 11/28/2004 Favorite by 7 Won 24-3 Cover
at Buffalo Bills 10/03/2004 Favorite by 5½ Won 31-17 Cover
vs Cincinnati Bengals 12/12/2004 Favorite by 10½ Won 35-28 No Cover
at Cleveland Browns 12/05/2004 Favorite by 11 Won 42-15 Cover
vs New York Jets 10/24/2004 Favorite by 6 Won 13-7 Push
at Miami Dolphins 12/20/2004 Favorite by 10 Lost 28-29 No Cover
at Pittsburgh Steelers 10/31/2004 Favorite by 3 Lost 20-34 No Cover
Total Points 193-133

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Pittsburgh Steelers
vs Baltimore Ravens 12/26/2004 Favorite by 5 Won 20-7 Cover
at Buffalo Bills 01/02/2005 Underdog by 9½ Won 29-24 Cover
vs Cincinnati Bengals 10/03/2004 Favorite by 4 Won 28-17 Cover
at Cleveland Browns 11/14/2004 Favorite by 3½ Won 24-10 Cover
vs New York Jets 12/12/2004 Favorite by 4½ Won 17-6 Cover
at Miami Dolphins 09/26/2004 Underdog by 2½ Won 13-3 Cover
vs New England Patriots 10/31/2004 Underdog by 3 Won 34-20 Cover
Total Points 165-87

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:08 PM

Ness: NFL Notes
January 21, 2005
Larry Ness
VegasInsider.com

Visiting NFL teams won three of four games during the wild card round (3-1 ATS) but the home teams rebounded to take all four of last weekend's divisional round games (3-1 ATS). Sunday, the Eagles will host the Falcons while the Steelers will host the Patriots in this year's NFL conference championship games.

Historically, home teams have gone 45-23 SU in the 34 years of conference title games since the 1970 merger. They are 38-28-2 ATS, with home favorites going 31-21-2 and home underdogs going 7-7 (the Gold Sheet lists the 1998 NFC title game as a pick but the visiting 49ers who won 28-3 really got 'steamed' that year playing in Chicago, closing as high as three-point favorites in some places).

While home teams have a fairly solid record overall since 1970, that HASN'T been the case recently. Since 1990, home teams have gone just 8-6 SU in each conference for a combined 16-12 mark, going an unimpressive 12-16 ATS. In the NFC, visiting teams have 'covered' SIX of the last seven years, with the lone 'cover' by a home team coming in 2000 when the Giants beat the Vikings 41-0, as 2 1/2-point home dogs!

Since the Steelers are a home dog, it should be noted that there have been just four home underdogs in conference title games since 1990. As mentioned earlier, the New York Giants (plus-2 1/2) beat Minnesota 41-0 in 2000 but the other three home dogs all lost! In 1997 Denver won at Pittsburgh 24-21 as a 2 1/2-point road favorite and Green Bay won at San Francisco 23-10, also as a 2 1/2-point favorite. In the 1992 AFC title game, Buffalo won at Miami 29-10 as a 2 1/2-point road favorite.

That 1997 year is worth re-visiting, as it marked the ONLY time since 1970 in which BOTH visiting teams were favored in the two conference title games and only the SECOND time in which BOTH road teams won. In 1992, Buffalo won at Miami 29-10 while Dallas won at San Francisco 30-20.

HERE'S A THOUGHT....Maybe the EASIEST way to determine the point spread winner for Sunday's games is to just go with the team you expect to win? Of course that's easier said than done but the fact remains that you DON'T want to be taking the points in these games if you DON'T think 'your' team will win!

In the 34 years of conference championship games since 1970, 61 of 68 SU winners have also been the ATS winner in those games! In the NFC, the St Louis Rams have won and failed to cover twice. In 2001 they beat Philadelphia 29-24 as a 10 1/2-point favorite and in 1999, they beat Tampa Bay 11-6 as a 14-point favorite. The 1983 Washington Redskins beat the San Francisco 49ers 24-21 as a 10 1/2-point favorite and in 1974, the Minnesota Vikings beat the LA Rams 14-10 but 'pushed' as they were 4-point favorites.

In AFC title games, there has been one 'push' and two favorites that won but failed to 'cover'. The 'push' occurred in 1975 when Pittsburgh beat Houston 16-10 as a 6-point favorite. In 1991 Buffalo beat Denver 10-7, failing to 'cover' as an 11 1/2-point favorite and in 1995, Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 20-16, when also favored by 11 1/2 points.

This year's two home teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers, both come in with LOTS to prove! The Eagles will be making their FOURTH consecutive title-game appearance, including their THIRD straight at home (an NFL record). Only the Raiders, who made five straight AFC title-game appearances from 1973-77, have a longer consecutive-year streak since the merger. Those Raider teams by the way, went just 1-4.

Philadelphia of course, has lost three straight NFC Championship Games, getting outscored 41-13 the last two years at home. Philadelphia wide receivers have caught a total of just 12 passes (with one TD) over three straight title-game appearances. The addition of Terrell Owens was supposed to change all of that but his injury in Week 15 leaves the Eagles, "Back to the Future".

Over in the AFC, Bill Cowher has earned the reputation as one of the NFL's best head coaches. You'll get no argument from me on that one but it's hard to ignore the fact that while this is his FIFTH AFC title-game appearance in the last 11 years, Cowher's teams are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the previous four.

All four have been home games, three coming as big favorites. Pittsburgh lost in 1994 to San Diego 17-13 as a 9-point favorite, beat Indianapolis 20-16 as an 11 1/2-point favorite, lost to Denver in 1997 24-21 as a 2 1/2-point underdog and lost to New England 24-17 as a 10-point favorite.

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:08 PM

Sunday, January 23rd
NFL Playoffs
AFC Championship Game
New England at Pittsburgh, 6:30 EST
Game Preview

New England Patriots:
23-8 ATS revenging a same-season loss
8-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

Pittsburgh Steelers:
1-5 ATS at home after committing 3+ turnovers
1-7 ATS at home off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Sunday, January 23rd
NFL Playoffs
NFC Championship Game
Atlanta at Philadelphia, 3:00 EST
Game Preview

Atlanta Falcons:
1-5 ATS away off a combined score of 50+ points
5-1 Under away off a straight up win

Philadelphia Eagles:
10-3 ATS vs. conference opponents
11-2 Under off a straight up win

**Spark** · 01-22-2005, 09:09 PM

Popular wisdom is that dome team won't play well in the cold of Philly, but Falcons won night game at Lambeau two years ago in playoffs; they run ball well with Duckett and Dunn, not to mention Vick, so they should be OK in what will be mid-teens temps, with 25 to 35 mph winds, not exactly passing weather. If this game is tied after first quarter, immense pressure mounts on Eagle squad that is without gamebreaker Owens, and has lost in this round three years in row. This is only matchup in playoffs so far where the two teams did not meet during regular season.

Last time these teams met, Steelers beat Dillon-less Pats 34-20; I can * no * no guarantee * * you this, with temps in high teens and Dillon back in lineup, NE will not match their rushing stats from first game (six rushes, five yards). Steelers had a defensive TD in last meeting, with two of three TD's on offense coming on turnover-induced drives of 27,17 yds Rookie QB vs Patriot defense is tough matchup for Pitt, which is 1-3 at home in AFC title games under Cowher. Brady has never lost playoff game, bowl or OT game, so it is unwise to buck him in this spot, especially vs rookie QB who looked shaky, at best last weekend.

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