please criticize trying something new

[lmercer213]

I have started playing two team parlays to improve my payout odds.
I pick a "for sure" ML i.e. Dallas-420 tonight @Charlotte, then I pick a ATS team San Antonio -3.5, San Antonio is the team I would play -110, but now my odds are 1.36-1.

Its risky but unless a huge upset in Charlotte, I am helping my payout odds. To me the reward is worth the risk, can someone please shoot holes in my thinking!!

Have only played this twice, and both times my "for sure" covered but my pick lost, but I don't lose any "juice"

[frankb03]

Aside from baseball I don't play parlays. It's hard enough finding one winner.

[ez winners]

Its a good theory and I do it myself sometimes, but you would be suprised how many times a 7 to 10 point favorite loses the game straight up. The key is to pick the right spots, and one thing that I try to avoid are road favorites. Unless you feel it is a total mismatch.

[frankb03]

I ran the calculations. It's a POOR INVESTMENT

A -8.5 favorite is roughly ML -400
-8.5 favorites win SU 79% of the games

Assuming you hit 60% of your ATS selections. Mathematically your parlay would hit 47.4% of the wagers (.79 * .60)

If you made 1000 parlay wagers at $100 each your return:
474 winning parlays @ $139 = 65,886
526 lossing parlays @ $100 = -52,600
Net profit $13,286

If you played 1000 ATS bets @ $100 each
600 ATS winners @ $100 = $60,000
400 ATS losers @ -110 = -44,000
Net Profit $16,000

Playing this type of wager is a poor investment.

[Shimmy]

I took FL the other night against Tenn and they were -800 and it cost me so best of luck man

[frankb03]

With a -400 ML the break-even is 80%. As I stated about -400 wins 79%. Trust me! Vegas has all this figured out when they set Money Lines.

[frankb03]

Its a good theory and I do it myself sometimes, but you would be suprised how many times a 7 to 10 point favorite loses the game straight up. The key is to pick the right spots, and one thing that I try to avoid are road favorites. Unless you feel it is a total mismatch.

John you raised a good point about avoiding road favorites.

-8.5 home favorites win SU 81%
-8.5 Road favorites win SU 71.6%

Vegas sets different ML lines for road teams vs. home teams. Also, different lines in parlays

At Pinny today:
Dallas -8.5 road Fav -397 ML
Bulls -8.5 Home Fav -409 ML

Pinny also does not use the same ML in Parlay's
Using Dallas in a Parlay -400 ML
Using Chicago in a Parlay -420 ML

As I stated about. Vegas and sportbooks have this all figured out. They make sure every wager they have the advantage.

[CoverBoy]

Frank

As usual you continue to be the foremost authority on trends, systems and odds.

No one is more thorough... I know first hand.

Glad we're partners !!!

TWYL

-cb

[shorty3830]

my 2 cents

i am sort of 50-50 on the issue..........i do it ALL the time (for much smaller amounts than i normally bet because i am still in the testing mode)........i agree with both frank and ez..........

as a rule, i would say it is not a good idea, i think if you do it the right way, you are probably not going to win or lose a lot of money, and for most gamblers, that is actually better than the norm (does that make sense?)

the only parlays i ever do are money line parlays, my latest example is last night in tennis, i parlayed , sharapova (-700)/mauresmo (-500)/hrbaty (-220) , the wagers was for $100 and aid $101.....naturally sharapova and mauresmo won easily, but hrbaty won a 5 setter which easliy could have lost.....only reason i mixed in a -220 was because if i did another -500, it would have been $100 to win $60ish, which is probably smarter than what i did

either way, like EZ said, it looks really appealing to take those -12 games and bet the money line parlays when they are -1000, but they lose all the time

so with all the bs i just gave you, my summary is:: i think it is ok to do it, but dont expect to get rich, but if you know what you are doing, you wont get killed either

b

[rwall]

My $.01 (my opinion isn't worth $.02) is "It's hard enough to pick one winner consistantly." I know alot of people love the parlay, I do it for baseball only, But I was told many years ago, "It's a sucker's bet" . So I may have a prejudice to it.
I don't mean to offend anyone that does do it. It's your money, you earned it, do what you want with it.

[BigTicket]

I havent read all the other opinions above from well respected members here, but I have experimented with the parlay system you speak of and I was extremely surprised, and pissed, at how many times the ml game you expect to win actually loses the game straight up. My advice would be to stick to picking single games, because as cliche as it is, it is really hard enough to win single bets!

[lmercer213]

Thanks for the advice, it just seems too good to be true, i guess it is!!
I just thought it would be a less risky way to improve payouts, totally aware of the its hard enough to pick one winner line but matching a sure thing up with a legit contender sounded good.
After reading the stats from frank(greatly appreciated) I think I will stick to losing on just single games. BTW Frank I hope you work with numbers!!!

[linemover]

it is a bad investment-numbers dont work as frank so graciously pointed out

[TwoTonTony]

I ran the calculations. It's a POOR INVESTMENT

A -8.5 favorite is roughly ML -400
-8.5 favorites win SU 79% of the games

Assuming you hit 60% of your ATS selections. Mathematically your parlay would hit 47.4% of the wagers (.79 * .60)

If you made 1000 parlay wagers at $100 each your return:
474 winning parlays @ $139 = 65,886
526 lossing parlays @ $100 = -52,600
Net profit $13,286

If you played 1000 ATS bets @ $100 each
600 ATS winners @ $100 = $60,000
400 ATS losers @ -110 = -44,000
Net Profit $16,000

Playing this type of wager is a poor investment.

i never liked parlays as i always thought they were sucker bets...but you have shed new light for me as to the nuts and bolts of why they are a poor choice.....thanks for the work!!!
awesome man!!!

[GoldVike]

Many

"players" look at lines and see one thing. Team A at home is.... -8 vs Team B on the road. ERGO......The players mind "normally" processes this information as team A at home is a winner....now can team B keep it close.

This is usually where errors are made in capping games. Ergo a small play I put in Phil Jr. thread the other night on TAKE MARIST +9.5 at Fairfield. YOU MUST LOOK FOR THE DOG GAMES you believe CAN WIN IT OUTRIGHT! I did the same with the Pacers tonight and had a one unit play on the ML AT +300 besides the 3* WITH the points.

NOW.......If you start PARLAYING a spread team with a ML team you cut your chances of winning drastically. One ALWAYS ASSUMES THE BET WILL WIN......and "I only lose a little if one of the teams fail" HOWEVER

JUST LOOK AT A PLAY TONIGHT THAT I FUCKED UP.......I ALWAYS PLAY A MULTIPLE TEAM PARLAY where rewards pay 10 to 20 times but put in you favor with 5 to 6 teams...many on totals and money lines.

MY MISTAKE.........NY Knicks as a side play AND IN THE PARLAY.......I JUST MISSED IT AS IN A HURRY TONIGHT! Leave the side play as is and leave it out and a winning parlay ticket.....as was.....a DOUBLE CRAP LOSER!! WATCH FOR THAT.

NEVER....PUT your strong play in a parlay. Play it for 5 or 10X or whatever on its own merit......but if it goes down.....EVERYTHING GOES DOWN.......GOT 4 RIGHT.....1 WRONG.....WON............NOTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHIHG!!

THIS is just MHO and FWIW so please take it as just that and please play as you see fit at all times......as I always say...."WHAT the heck do I know"???

BESTOFLUCKTOYOU!!! Goldv