Friday's Service Plays & Request Thread

[BettorsChat]

nt

[savage1]

Sebastian, hot as the proverbial firecacker for the last week, has the Atlanta Hawks as the comp. tonight.(comps have not been hot the past few days).

[THICK 1]

Executive Sportsline comp selections

HOOPS
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DAILY FRIDAY
JANUARY 20th
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MINNESOTA +6 ov. Seattle

Today's FREE NBA Game of the Day...
Friday,January 21
TAKE the ATLANTA HAWKS

[Blackbeard]

DR. BOB NFL...

Jan 21, 12:05 pm
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 21 New England (-3.0) 14
I never imagined that a team with a 16-1 record would be an underdog at home in a
playoff game, but that's the scenario we have here. When I was asked on Sunday afternoon what I thought the line on this game would be, I said that Pittsburgh should be favored by 3 ½ points, but I'd probably make the line 2 ½ or 3 out of respect for the Patriots.
I was shocked when I saw that New England was favored by 3 points. It's funny how
everyone was questioning the merits of the Patriots prior to last week's game against
the Colts, who most predicted would win that game (I leaned with NE), and a week later
the Pats are being hailed as too good to lose ? even on the road to a 16-1 team. It
strikes me that the public, rather than admitting they were wrong about how good the
Colts are, have simply come to the conclusion that the Patriots must be REALLY good to
have beaten the Colts so easily. Throw in the fact that Pittsburgh struggled to beat the Jets and you have the makings of a ridiculous pointspread in this game. The only reason
the Steelers struggled to beat the Jets was their -2 in turnover margin with one of
those interceptions being returned for an 86 yard touchdown. The Steelers should be
applauded for winning a game in which they were -2 in turnover margin, which is tough to
do, and Pittsburgh out-played the Jets from the line of scrimmage 364 yards (at 4.9
yards per play) to 275 yards (at 4.4 yppl). That game was the only time in Ben
Roethlisberger's 15 starts that the Steelers turned the ball over more than twice (NE
has had 3 or more turnovers 5 times), so it's not likely that the Steelers will have
similar turnover issues this week. These teams match up pretty evenly on both offense
and defense, as both teams have a rushing attack that rates at 0.1 ypr better than
average and a highly efficient quarterback, with Roethlisberger rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on
defense) and Brady rating at 1.0 yppp better than average (7.0 yppp against teams that
allow 6.0 yppp). Pittsburgh has better defensive numbers than the Patriots for the
season, but New England has actually been better defensively since Ty Law has been
injured, as Law didn't support the run and the Pats defend the run a lot better since
he's been out. New England has yielded just 3.5 ypr and 5.7 yppp (to teams that combine
to average 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yppp) in games without Law, with the exception of their
regular season finale against the 49ers when backups got a lot of snaps. Pittsburgh's
defense is nearly as good, allowing 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yppp (to teams that combine to
average 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yppp) in all games excluding their season finale against
Buffalo. New England was without star running back Corey Dillon in their 20-34 week 8
loss at Pittsburgh and I took the Pats' offensive stats from that game out when I
calculated the math on this game. My math model would still favor the Steelers by 1 ½
points if this were a regular season game, but home field advantage in the playoffs is 2 ½ points higher than in the regular season, so the math projects Pittsburgh by 4 points in this game. The Steelers also apply to a 43-12-1 ATS playoff home team situation and home underdogs are 18-6 ATS in playoff games since 1976. I've been hearing everywhere that Bill Belichick hasn't lost to a quarterback he's facing for a second time in a season, but have people forgotten that Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback that hasn't lost a football game that he's started in over 2 years? With the line value and the situation strongly favoring the Steelers I will make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more. Downgrade Pittsburgh to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 3points.

Strong Opinion
PHILADELPHIA (-5.0) 24 Atlanta 13
My math model favored the Falcons by 15 points in last week's 47-17 win over the Rams, which included a whopping 6 point edge in special teams. It turns out that Atlanta's special teams edge last week was underestimated, as the special teams difference in that game was 13.2 points. The Falcons won't enjoy that same type of advantage in this game, as the Eagles' rate at 0.6 points per game better than Atlanta in special teams and my math model favors the Eagles by 11 points after making all the proper adjustments. The Eagles' offense isn't as good without Terrell Owens, and I calculated their pass attack as just average without Owens (based on the yards per passes thrown to averages of the Eagles' receivers last season, compared to what they were this year with T.O.). However, Philly's receiving corps stepped up last week and Donovan McNabb averaged a very impressive 8.4 yards per pass play against a Vikings' defense that allowed 6.7 yppp for the season. I don't expect McNabb to perform nearly as well in this game against a solid Falcons' pass defense that has allowed 5.7 yards per pass play (to teams that combine to
average 6.1 yppp on offense) when pass rushing specialist Rod Coleman is in the lineup (the Falcons' got torched through the air in the 3 games he missed due to lack of a pass rush ? just 1 sack in those 3 games). The Falcons also have a solid run defense (3.8 ypr allowed in Coleman's games, to teams that combine to average 4.0 ypr) and I rate their stop unit at 0.3 yards per play better than average. I calculate Philadelphia's offense also being 0.3 yppl better than average without Owens, so there isn't an edge on either side when the Eagles have the football. Philadelphia's advantage lies with their defense, which has been fantastic since Jeremiah Trotter took over the starting job at middle linebacker in week 10. Since then, and excluding their final 2 regular season games when backups played a large portion of the time, the Eagles have yielded just 3.7 ypr and 5.2 yppp to teams that combine to average 4.2 ypr and 6.1 yppp on offense. Overall, the Eagles' defense rates at 0.7 yppl better than average and they should win the battle against a Falcons' attack that has averaged 5.4 yppl when Michael Vick is at quarterback (against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense). The Eagles' great secondary will be able to cover the Falcons' receivers man-to-man, which will allow them to focus on defending the run. Vick is certainly capable of taking over a game, but most of the damage he has done in his career has come against mediocre and bad defensive teams and he's struggled against good defensive teams (most notably the Buccaneers). The cold conditions in Philadelphia should also inhibit Vick's game, as he's struggled throwing the ball in the only two cold weather games (40 degrees or lower) that he's played in during his career (just 4.8 yppp) while running for a total of just 51 yards in those two games. Vick also doesn't run as well on natural grass, averaging 6.5 ypr on grass ? compared to 8.1 ypr on artificial turf. Donovan McNabb, by contrast, has played better during his career as the temperature has dropped. McNabb has averaged 0.5 yppp higher than his career average in 11 cold weather games. There are situations favoring
both sides in this game, as the Eagles apply to a 50-15 ATS playoff home team situation while also applying to a 1-13 ATS angle. Also, the Falcons' 47-17 win last week is not a good omen for them, as teams that score 35 points or more in their divisional round playoff win are 0-9 ATS on the road in the Conference Championship Game. Also, teams that score more than 35 points in any playoff victory of 7 points or more are just 4-14-1 ATS on the road when not getting at least 10 points (including the Colts last week). Those angles combine to favor the Eagles by about 2 ½ points, which is the same as additional home field advantage that is already incorporated into my math model for playoff games. So, the math prediction of Eagles by 11 points is what I'll go with and Philadelphia has a profitable 56.7 % chance of covering at the current pointspread of -5 points, which is good enough to make the Eagles a Strong Opinion in this game. Upgrade Philadelphia to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 4 points or less.

[Blackbeard]

Godspicks(off diff site)

FP= Mavs
Major= Bucks

[Blackbeard]

Mejia NBA:
Last night: 3-0 | Week to date: 18-10 | Season record: 395-175 (69.3 %)
2004 Playoff record: 64-17 (79.0 %) | 2003-04 Season record: 835-434 (65.8 %)


Projected Scores
NBA GAMES FOR 01/21/2005
Dallas 108 Charlotte 94
Washington 106 Toronto 102
Boston 97 New Jersey 94
Houston 95 New York 89
Miami 97 Indiana 90
Detroit 94 Milwaukee 81
Chicago 96 Atlanta 88
Phoenix 107 San Antonio 102
Denver 96 Memphis 91
L.A. Lakers 104 Golden State 98
Seattle 103 Minnesota 101

[Blackbeard]

Mejia NCAA:

Last night: 34-17 | Week to date: 111-48 | Season to date: 1,947-582 (77.0)
2004 NCAAs: 44-20 (68.8%) | 2004 NIT: 31-7 (81.6%) | 2004 Conference tourneys: 129-55 (70.1 %)
2004 Season record: 3,606-1,300 (73.5 %) | 2003 Season record: 3,294-1,246 (72.6%)
Projected Scores
NCAAB GAMES FOR 01/21/2005
American 76 Army 58
Bucknell 72 Lafayette 65
Lehigh 68 Colgate 64
Holy Cross 83 Navy 54
Belmont 70 Lipscomb 63
Iona 78 St. Peter's 76
Troy 82 Mercer 77

[Fast Eddie]

www.FastEddieSports.com

Fast Eddie is HOT 5 -1 last 4 days....this Sunday NFL Playoff Game of Year !!!!

NBA
Regular Play:
* New York Knicks

[savage1]

More Comps: Northcoast from "The Friends of (the deceased) Mike Lee" 3* on the NEW YORK KNICKS-I don't know who these friends are and/or whether they are living or in the Hereafter.
Phil continues to keep alluding how JB could be 24-1 if it weren't for a few close losses WITHOUT alluding to how many of his wins were close wins which he could have lost;as usual Phil is spinning faster than a top- as yes-Phil, the fast talking medicineman at his best.
Northcoast Basketball comp line-3* on SEATTLE from some service which I never heard of and didn't even write down.
Computer Boys-they have really been making a name for themselves -1604 alone with comps in January;the comp today is Chicago.
Daaa Manager's comp. is on IONA.

[bobt]

Any Root today?

Thanks guys

[BettorsChat]

Duke

Last
night Boise State our 3rd comp winner in a row

Take Atlanta + 5 in football I am sorry a few of you thought I ment Atlanta Hawks

[THICK 1]

Let's get to Friday's comp pick. Remember I'm on a 59-43 run, including 34-20 in the NBA.

Your comp play for today will be on the Chicago Bulls as they host the worst team in the history of basketball, the Atlanta Hawks.

aThe Bulls are actually making a case for the playoffs this year. Now, we all understand that the Eastern Conference is terrible, but still, they are one of the hottest teams in the conference. They have won 7 of their last 8 SU and 6 of those 8 ATS.

They are an amazing 14-5 ATS their last 19 games, while the Hawks have dropped 3 of 4 ATS and just continue to lose at an astounding pace. They are now 5-18 SU their last 23 games.

Stay at home with the Bulls tonight.

Stu Feiner

[Easy]

Does anyone have Godspicks for their NFL postseason GOY?

[THICK 1]

Now, let's get to your comp play which is also in the NFL on Sunday's AFC title tilt with New England at Pittsburgh.

Just watch the Patriots and Steelers fly Over the total. The first meeting (34-20) flew so far over that the ducks stop flying south for the winter. They wanted to watch the game.

Everything points to the Under in this game. The weather, the trends, both teams trying to run the football, etc. And, consequently, the linemakers have adjusted the price accordingly. But, this is going to be a wide open affair, and for the third straight meeting, the Over is going to be the play.

Keep in mind the Patriots average 29.2 points on the road. And the Steelers average 24.4 points at home. Both teams can run and throw the ball, and both have super wide receiver talent.

Take advantage of the low total and the linemakers' error in judgement and play the Over.


Big Green Machine

[gambligus]

Someone better tell the big green machine (Bissell,LOL) that the Steelers have only gave up an AVG of 5 points a game in their last 5 home games.