A ? For NCAA Hoop Cappers

[rwall]

I have been betting on college hoops for a couple of years, but this is the first year I feel I have been "handicapping". In the past I would look and pick.
As each night goes by I am in awe at the consistancy of some of the handicappers here.
My question is this: Where or How do you begin your search? Do you use power ratings? Trends? etc. to locate which games seem beatable.
I find myself all over the place, what seems important one day I forget to look at the next.
Thank You in advance. Any help would be greatly appreciate.

[rwall]

Anyone...
Bueller....Bueller....Frye

[BettorsChat]

maybe someone can give some info here

[RJeremy]

I first crunch all the numbers...offense, defense, records, home field, avg. scoring, player injuries, coaching, conference, past results of teams playing each other, etc., etc. I also check the Sagarin Ratings sometimes to see if there is major discrepencies in the lines. Then I take the games that I really like and see who the public is on (what % is on each side), and take a long look at line movements and if they make sense or not. I watch line movements VERY CLOSELY. Then I make my final plays out of all those. The line movements are the only thing that might make me change my bet late in the day.

** I also follow SOME trends. Not many and not all the time. For example, unranked home team favored over a ranked away team. Hits around 70% in NCAA Hoops. 5-1 so far this year.

Hope this helps.

[rwall]

Rj,
Thank you very much for your time and advice.
It is greatly appreciate it.
Keep up the good work.

[RJeremy]

C'Mon GUYS!!!! Over 150 views and nobody can respond??? That's what this forum is ALL about. Helping out our other members. I'm sure I'm not the only one that has a method of picking games. Help him out here!!!!

[aces r wild]

Handicapping

I don't post any plays, but i do alot of handicapping and investing on my own night after night. Trends are all i use. I go to www.scoresandodds.com, it will have tonights rotation and you just click on matchup. It'll have everything you need.For example, last night there was a trend for miami oh never losing ats @ e.mich. Line was pk-1, they one by 10. My problem is i bet to many games.

Ace

[RJeremy]

Aces,

Nothing against you AT ALL! I think trends are the WORST thing in the world to bet on. As I mentioned above I will RARELY take a game soley on a trend. The one I mentioned is one to look out for and even then, its not 100%, so you still have to look closer at the game. Just like 2 weeks ago, I went against that trend and took Alabama, and they won. It's just a starting point, and not to be followed ALL the time.

Here's the problems I have with trends. Someone can come up with a trend on ANY game if they look hard enough. Ex. Since 1975, SEC teams are 77% ats after 2 days off and coming off a road loss of 15 or more points and traveling across 2 time zones. This is made up, but you get my drift. Another problem is, things change from day to day and year to year. It doesn't matter what a team did last year playing in Cincinatti or whatever, it is new players, possibly new coaches, and everything is different. Betting on a game due to factors that happened years ago or because some trend says so will get you hurt BADLY. Each game needs its own consideration and should be treated with such.

Just my $.02.....hope this helps.......and Aces, again no offense to you, thats just my opinion. I've been doing this pretty seriously for over 10 years.

[HUNGlikeabear]

Just saw this thread.

I suck so you may want to fade this stuff.

A few things (of many) to watch....
-number of games played in a short number of days or multiple road games. These kids have school and partying to do as well as hoops. Too much for a team at times.
-Number of returning starters especially if a team was smoked by another the previous year OR a team dusted another the previous year. If there is a number of returning starters, they remember losing big to a team or they can remember blowing out a team, and take the night off or look ahead.
-Watching the line movement esp when I read something about an impending suspension or injury and there isn't any movement indicating so.
-Quality of the opposition each has played.
-Free throw percentage
-Of course all the stat numbers crap on each team
-I have decided to generally keep my plays to inter conference games or games involving at least one ranked opponent.
-Look at Blakes capping tips
-Stay away from the nibba
-Stay away from injury/suspension games
-You can't cap every conference, try to limit the conferences you cap, unless you are unemployed.
-If you hit a bad stretch, take off a night or a season or two. The action will always be here for you. It has nothing better to do than to serve your beck and call.

[HUNGlikeabear]

maybe someone can give some info here

You looking for a personal invite.

You do own a gambling forum

[aces r wild]

Aces,

Nothing against you AT ALL! I think trends are the WORST thing in the world to bet on. As I mentioned above I will RARELY take a game soley on a trend. The one I mentioned is one to look out for and even then, its not 100%, so you still have to look closer at the game. Just like 2 weeks ago, I went against that trend and took Alabama, and they won. It's just a starting point, and not to be followed ALL the time.

Here's the problems I have with trends. Someone can come up with a trend on ANY game if they look hard enough. Ex. Since 1975, SEC teams are 77% ats after 2 days off and coming off a road loss of 15 or more points and traveling across 2 time zones. This is made up, but you get my drift. Another problem is, things change from day to day and year to year. It doesn't matter what a team did last year playing in Cincinatti or whatever, it is new players, possibly new coaches, and everything is different. Betting on a game due to factors that happened years ago or because some trend says so will get you hurt BADLY. Each game needs its own consideration and should be treated with such.

Just my $.02.....hope this helps.......and Aces, again no offense to you, thats just my opinion. I've been doing this pretty seriously for over 10 years.

RJ,
I do agree with you to an extent. I only play the game if it's an overwhelming trend. Also, you have to recognize how that team is presently. For example, UConn this year versus the last 2 years( losing 3 starters)

[aces r wild]

Also, there are usually a couple games every night with good line value in the cbb added games.(haven't handicapped anything today yet)

[RJeremy]

Yea, I agree on the added games and small schools. I take ALOT of small schools, teams that I never even heard of the college before. There is a lot of value in those and IMO the lines aren't as sharp as UNC, MD, G.Tech, Wake, ETC., ETC.

Start to learn and love the smaller conferences. There is a lot of value in them.

[HUNGlikeabear]

RJ,
I do agree with you to an extent. I only play the game if it's an overwhelming trend. Also, you have to recognize how that team is presently. For example, UConn this year versus the last 2 years( losing 3 starters)

Aces

Another way of looking at trends....

If one trend is 20-0, then loses the night you ride it, it's still 20-1. A nice 20-1 trend that did shit for you by losing it's last time up.

I for one got my nuts "yanked" on Game 7 of the Bo Sox series. The trend involved was something like 230-2. Don't need to tell you it's now 230-3 (and I'm out some large cash).

[aces r wild]

Hung

Great point