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**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:16 PM

Jets @ Steelers-- Pitt is 15-2 vs Jets, winning 17-6 five weeks ago at this site, in game where Jets never entered red zone. One of two NY series wins was 6-0 in snow last year in Jersey, so Jets failed to score TD in each of last two series meetings. Rookie QB for Steelers could be a concern, but superior OL and depth at RB make them tough side to buck. Third week in row on road for Jets, with last two games both going OT; is their tank empty?

Rams @ Falcons-- Atlanta won first meeting 34-17 in Week 2, in game that was tied entering final quarter, after Falcons led 17-7 at half. Six of nine Ram drives started 80+ yards from end zone, with the usual minus-2 ratio in turnovers- Atlanta outrushed them 242-30, in what was Rams' road opener. St Louis won Super Bowl five years ago on this field, but seven of their eight losses this year are by 17+ points, so the play would seem to be either to money line the Rams, or lay the seven points.

Vikings @ Eagles-- Just like above matchup, Vikings lost at this site in Week 2, 27-16, but Minnesota gained 410 yards, scoring just one TD and two FG's in five trips to red zone. Culpepper was 37-47/332 yards, but Iggles had 11-yard edge in average starting field position, and started two of their seven drives in Viking territory. Lot of pressure on Philly to make Super Bowl, and with Owens out, how much better is this team than the last three units? Plus, bye week following two "forfeits" make you think if Eagles will be as sharp as they should be.

Colts @ Patriots-- Manning is 0-6 in Foxboro, but put up 446 yards in Week One loss at this site (202 rushing, 244 in air), two red zone turnovers killed them. Both Pat CB's are out here, would look for New England to pull tricks on special teams, then possess ball to keep the Colts off field, because hard to believe Indy can't put up 30+ pts vs makeshift secondary. Low spread shows lack of respect for defending champ that seems to have Indy's number, especially in what amounts to night game in potentially bad weather. Foxboro field was left uncovered during an ice storm Tuesday. Patriots hoping for slower track.

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:16 PM

NY JETS (11 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (15 - 1) - 1/15/2005, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY JETS are 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (9 - 8) at ATLANTA (11 - 5) - 1/15/2005, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (9 - 8) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 3) - 1/16/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) in road games in January games since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
MINNESOTA is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (13 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 2) - 1/16/2005, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) in home games in January games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:17 PM

Saturday, January 15th NFL Playoffs AFC Divisional Game

New York Jets at Pittsburgh, 4:30 EST

New York Jets:
6-17 ATS with a total of 35 points or less
1-5 ATS revenging a road loss

Pittsburgh Steelers:
8-2 ATS at home off 5+ wins
6-1 ATS off an Over

==========

Saturday, January 15th NFL Playoffs NFC Divisional Game

St. Louis at Atlanta, 8:00 EST

St. Louis Rams:
1-10 ATS away off an Under
3-12 ATS off a win as a road underdog

Atlanta Falcons:
8-2 Under as a favorite
6-1 Under off an ATS win

================================================== ======

Sunday, January 16th NFL Playoffs NFC Divisional Game

Minnesota at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST

Minnesota Vikings:
1-6 ATS away in January
2-8 ATS off a win by 14+ points as an underdog

Philadelphia Eagles:
12-3 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
28-12 ATS vs. conference opponents

==========

Sunday, January 16th NFL Playoffs AFC Divisonal Game

Indianapolis at New England, 4:30 EST

Indianapolis Colts:
6-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points
6-1 ATS off BB Overs

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:18 PM

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF NOTES

TGS EXTRA!!! Editor

So much for that trend!

Or is it?

We're talking about what was the long-standing advantage home teams had accumulated in NFL Divisional (Second Round) playoff action. Rationale certainly supported their success, which included a 13-6-1 pointspread mark from 1998-2002. After all, the home teams in the Divisional Round were supposed to represent the cream of the crop in the NFL, the two teams with best records from each conference, right? And with a much-needed "bye" week to refresh & recharge their batteries, it was no wonder the Division Round hosts recorded such a stellar mark against the number.

Until last year, that is, when all four visiting teams covered the spread in Divisional Round action! Two of them (Indianapolis and Carolina) won outright; two of them (Tennessee and Green Bay) came exceedingly close. All of the Divisional Round games last season were decided by 7 points or fewer, too, another departure from recent history that had seen many one-sided results in Divisional Round (and, indeed, all playoff round) action. Time to discard the old theories, then, and start shading the road teams in Divisional Round games?

Not so fast. The dynamics, unique to this playoff round, that helped the home teams record those positive spread marks before last season, are still in place. That "bye" week all home teams enjoy in this round has long been considered of great value, at least since 1990, when the NFL postseason tournament was fundamentally altered, expanding from 10 teams to 12 and giving all Division Round home teams a first-week playoff rest. (From 1978-89, only one Division Round home team per conference was facing a non-rested foe). Almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory were from that first-round "bye" group, including 43 of the past 52 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced), and 22 of the last 26 Super Bowl winners.

Overall numbers since 1976 still greatly favor home teams and favorites, usually one and the same in this round (Carolina, getting 3 at home vs. Dallas in 1996, and winning 26-17, is the only Division Round home dog since 1982). Indeed, "intermediate-priced" favorites (laying between 3½-9½ points) stand a solid 42-29-1 vs. the line in this round the last 28 postseasons, and home teams still hold a noticeable 61-48-3 pointspread edge that span. Home teams are also 82-30 straight up since 1976; favorites 80-31. And even though we didn't see any blowout results in this round a year ago, keep in mind that 25 of the 40 Division Round games since 1994 have still been decided by double-digit margins, with 6 of the 8 in 2001 & 2002 decided by 14 or more.

So, if there was indeed a lesson to be learned from last year, it's to not to base all playoff analyses on past results. Because, as we've said countless times before, none of these trends are etched in granite.

Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Conference Semifinal games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1976 is included as well. Note that our "charting" begins with the 1976 season. Prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.
CATEGORY vs RESULT

Favorites vs. line 59-49-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up 80-31
Favored by 0-3 points 5-11-1
Favored by 3½-6½ points 22-16-1
Favored by 7-9½ points 20-13
Favored by 10-13½ points 9-6
Favored by 14 points or more 3-3-1
Home teams straight up 82-30
Home teams vs. spread 61-48-3
Home favorites vs. spread 57-47-3
Home underdogs vs. spread 3-2
Home picks vs. spread 1-0
Over/under (since 1986) 39-33
MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points 25
4-6 points 9
7-10 points 20
11-13 points 5
14 points or more 53

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:18 PM

NFL Computer Predictions

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Saturday, January 15, 2005

New York Jets (+9) at Pittsburgh Steelers [AFC Divisional Playoff]

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 New York Jets 17
Statistical Projections

New York Jets 19

Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 196
Turnovers: 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 22

Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 189
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to New York Jets
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 10
Pittsburgh Steelers (2 stars)

St Louis Rams (+6½) at Atlanta Falcons [NFC Divisional Playoff]

Power Rating Projection:

Atlanta Falcons 27 St Louis Rams 17
Statistical Projections

St Louis Rams 19

Rushing Yards: 85
Passing Yards: 308
Turnovers: 3 Atlanta Falcons 23

Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 174
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons 32 St Louis Rams 17
Atlanta Falcons (1 star)

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Sunday, January 16, 2005

Minnesota Vikings (+9½) at Philadelphia Eagles [NFC Divisional Playoff]

Power Rating Projection:

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Minnesota Vikings 19
Statistical Projections

Minnesota Vikings 23

Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 296
Turnovers: 1 Philadelphia Eagles 26

Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 279
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Minnesota Vikings
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles 38 Minnesota Vikings 20
Philadelphia Eagles (2 stars)

Indianapolis Colts (+2½) at New England Patriots [AFC Divisional Playoff]

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 22 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections

Indianapolis Colts 24

Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 276
Turnovers: 2 New England Patriots 27

Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 258
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 27 Indianapolis Colts 13
New England Patriots (2 stars)

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:19 PM

NY Jets (10-6) at Pittsburgh (15-1)
Game Info: 4:30 pm EST Sat Jan 15, 2005

Sooner or later, Ben Roethlisberger is going to lose a game in the NFL.
Someday, the New York Jets are going to win one in Pittsburgh.

Both those things could happen as early as Saturday if the Jets can find a way to go into Heinz Field and beat the Steelers, who boast the NFL's best record and its Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Roethlisberger had one of the best seasons ever by a rookie quarterback, setting an NFL record by winning his first 13 starts. Pittsburgh closed the season with a franchise-record 14-game winning streak, with Roethlisberger sitting out the season finale to rest sore ribs after the Steelers had already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Included in the Steelers' winning streak was a 17-6 home victory over the Jets on Dec. 12, dropping New York to 0-6 all-time in Pittsburgh. That was part of the Jets' 5-6 record to close the season, which would have cost them a playoff spot if the Steelers, using mostly backups, had lost to Buffalo in their last game.

The defeat to Pittsburgh renewed criticism of both Chad Pennington and the Jets' ability to beat good teams after he threw three interceptions while leading New York to just a pair of field goals.

``Obviously I didn't play well the last time we played Pittsburgh, so those questions will be asked again,'' said Pennington, who sat out practice Wednesday with a stomach virus. ``We'll handle those things and go up there ready to play.''

Pennington helped silence some criticism by leading New York to a 20-17 overtime victory over AFC West champion San Diego in the wild-card round. He was 23-of-33 for 279 yards and two touchdowns, including a 47-yarder to Santana Moss that was the longest TD pass of the season for a player who doesn't have a particularly strong arm and struggled late in the season after a rotator cuff injury.

While Pennington's failures have been well-documented, forgotten is how much Roethlisberger struggled in the regular-season game against the Jets. He was just 9-of-19 for 144 yards, threw two interceptions and was sacked twice. In fact, Pittsburgh's lone touchdown pass was thrown by running back Jerome Bettis.

However, Roethlisberger was without deep threat Plaxico Burress, who caught a team-high five touchdown passes, for that game because of an injured hamstring.

``They were bringing a lot of people, and penalties hurt us a lot,'' Roethlisberger said. ``We did not play a good first half of football offensively. We made some mistakes, but the good thing is we got out with the win.''

The Jets have a better chance to pressure Roethlisberger if defensive end John Abraham can play. He has missed the last five games with a sprained right knee and is listed as questionable for this week.

Both teams can overcome struggles by their quarterback, because they prefer the run anyway.

Pittsburgh had the NFL's second-best running attack behind the duo of Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. The Steelers rushed for 154 yards per game, with Bettis rushing for most of his 941 yards and 13 touchdowns after Staley was forced to miss a number of games with a hamstring injury.

Staley finished with 830 yards and was well on his way to 1,000 as the featured back before missing six games. He is healthy now, but coach Bill Cowher has not yet said which will be the starting back Saturday.

``It doesn't really matter, because I promise you both of us are going to play,'' Bettis said. ``It's a two-headed monster. The guy who lines up there (to start the game) I don't think is too significant.''

New York is right behind Pittsburgh in third place and has NFL rushing champion and Pittsburgh native Curtis Martin, who gained 1,697 yards, and LaMont Jordan, who had an important carry that set up the winning field goal in overtime last week.

Neither accomplished much against the Steelers' top-ranked rushing defense, with Martin carrying 24 times for 72 yards and Jordan adding only 10 yards on his three carries.

The game matches fiery coaches Cowher and Herman Edwards, who earlier this week apologized for yelling at one of his assistants on the sideline of last week's game. Cowher and Edwards were teammates with the Philadelphia Eagles in the mid-1980s, and both have enjoyed some postseason success as coaches.

Edwards has the Jets into the second round for the second time in three years, and last week became the first Jets coach to win a road playoff game since Walt Michaels in 1982. Cowher has led the Steelers to at least one win in each of their last six postseason appearances and is 7-4 at home in the playoffs.

The Steelers are 15-2 all-time against the Jets and would host the AFC championship game with another victory. If New York wins, it visits the winner of Sunday's New England-Indianapolis game.

HOW THEY GOT HERE: Jets - 2nd place, AFC East; beat San Diego Chargers 20-17 in OT in wild-card round. Steelers - 1st place, AFC North; first-round bye.

JETS LEADERS: Offense - Pennington, 2,673 passing yards and 16 passing TDs; Martin, 1,697 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs; Moss, 838 receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs; Justin McCareins, 56 receptions. Defense - Shaun Ellis, 11 sacks; Erik Coleman, 4 INTs.

STEELERS LEADERS: Offense - Roethlisberger, 2,621 passing yards and 17 passing TDs; Bettis, 941 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs; Hines Ward, 80 receptions and 1,004 receiving yards; Burress, 5 receiving TDs. Defense - Aaron Smith, 8 sacks; Troy Polamalu, 5 INTs.

JETS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 149.2 yards per game (3rd in NFL); Passing Offense - 190.6 ypg (22nd); Total Offense - 339.9 ypg (12th). Rushing Defense - 97.9 ypg (5th); Passing Defense - 207.0 ypg (14th); Total Defense - 304.9 ypg (7th).

STEELERS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 154.0 ypg (2nd); Passing Offense - 170.0 ypg (28th); Total Offense - 324.0 ypg (16th). Rushing Defense - 81.2 ypg (1st); Passing Defense - 177.2 ypg (4th); Total Defense - 258.4 ypg (1st).

LAST MEETING: Dec. 12; Steelers, 17-6. At Pittsburgh, Bettis also rushed for a TD in the fourth quarter, helping the Steelers pull away after being tied 3-3 after three.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Jets - Martin has rushed for eight TDs in nine career playoff games. ... Pennington is the Jets' career playoff leader with six TD passes after throwing two last week to break a tie with Richard Todd and Vinny Testaverde. ... DE Ellis had 1 1/2 sacks of Roethlisberger in the Week 14 game. Steelers - Pittsburgh last lost its opening playoff game in 1993 against Kansas City -- where Edwards was the defensive backs coach. ... Former Jet and current Steelers All-Pro James Farrior had four INTs, tied for the most by a LB this season. ... Roethlisberger has announced he is donating his game check to the tsunami victims relief effort.

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Jets - 5-4 on the road; Steelers - 8-0 at home.

INJURIES: Jets - QUESTIONABLE: DE Abraham (knee). PROBABLE: QB Pennington (illness); DT Dewayne Robertson (thigh); LB Kenyatta Wright (foot). Steelers - PROBABLE: LB Kendrell Bell (groin); RB Bettis (ankle); CB Ricardo Colclough (shoulder); LB Clark Haggans (groin); LB James Harrison (groin); RB Verron Haynes (knee); RB Staley (hamstring); CB Deshea Townsend (hand)

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:20 PM

St. Louis (8-8) at Atlanta (11-5)
Game Info: 8:00 pm EST Sat Jan 15, 2005

The Atlanta Falcons earned a first-round bye and a home playoff game by winning the NFC South. That home-field advantage, however, might look downright inviting to the St. Louis Rams.
After barely keeping their season alive the last two weeks, the Rams take on the Falcons on the artificial turf of the Georgia Dome in what could be a high-scoring divisional playoff game.

The Rams have exhibited a resilience in their last two contests that's been missing all year. They defeated the New York Jets in overtime in their season finale in a game they had to win to make the playoffs, then knocked off the Seattle Seahawks 27-20 on the road last Saturday in a wild-card contest.

Marc Bulger threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, the last a 17-yarder to Cam Cleeland with 2:11 to play, and the Rams advanced when Seattle's Bobby Engram couldn't hold on to a Matt Hasselbeck pass in the end zone on fourth-and-4 from the Rams' 5 with 27 seconds remaining.

``The last three weeks this is a different team than the previous 14 weeks,'' coach Mike Martz said. ``This is kind of who I think we are.''

More than anything, Martz's team is one that thrives on the turf of their home stadium, the Edward Jones Dome, where it went 6-2 this season. With All-Pro receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, and running backs Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson, St. Louis' speedy roster is built to succeed on artificial surfaces such as that of the Georgia Dome.

The Rams, however, are only getting the chance to do so after a tumultuous 2004 that nearly saw them miss the postseason. Hurt by injuries and infighting, the team came together with three straight wins and has finally embraced a new defensive scheme that allowed it to limit the Seahawks' Shaun Alexander, the NFC's leading rusher this season, to 40 yards on 15 carries last week.

St. Louis' defense, though, faces a considerably tougher task Saturday. Their newfound ability to stop the run will be tested against the NFL's best rushing attack, led by superstar quarterback Michael Vick and running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett.

The trio helped the Falcons roll up 2,672 rushing yards and a 5.1 yards-per-carry average, both league bests, as well as 20 TDs on the ground. Vick led the league with 7.5 yards per attempt and rushed for 902 yards, the third-highest single-season total by a quarterback in NFL history.

``He certainly is unique and probably as an athlete is the best in the league, there's no question about that,'' Martz said. ``The first thing you do is you need to account for him.''

Martz and the Rams learned that lesson in Week 2, as the NFL's most dangerous run-pass threat rushed for 109 yards on 12 carries and passed for 179 in the Falcons' 34-17 victory over St. Louis at the Georgia Dome.

That win broke a seven-game losing streak in the series for the Falcons, who resided in the NFC West with the Rams before the NFL realigned from six to eight divisions three seasons ago.

The Falcons have the added advantage of the rest and healing that comes with a first-round bye, as first-year coach Jim Mora won't list anyone on the team's injury report this week. Regardless of health, Atlanta's potent running game might not matter if the team's resurgent defense can't contain the Rams' high-powered offense.

The key for Atlanta in trying to slow down St. Louis may lie with the ability of the Falcons' outstanding front four to get pressure on Bulger. Linemen Patrick Kerney, Rod Coleman, Brady Smith and Ed Jasper lead a defense that piled up a league-high 48 sacks.

Pro Bowler Kerney had 13 while Coleman added 11 1/2 , and the Falcons will need those players to continue to get to the quarterback in order to keep the Rams' big plays to a minimum

``They don't just work together,'' defensive line coach Bill Johnson said. ``They're the greatest group of guys I've ever coached from a personality standpoint.''

Mora led the Falcons to a reversal of their 2003 record and just the third division title in franchise history this season. Many of Atlanta's players have relatively little postseason experience, as the team last played in the playoffs in 2002. Rust could also be a factor for the Falcons on Saturday, as Mora rested Vick and most of his key players during the last two weeks of the regular season, both losses.

``We've just got to prepare the way we've been preparing for teams all year and making sure that we do everything possible to have our best week of preparation and just get ready to play a great football game,'' Vick said Tuesday.

``We've studied this team. We know what their tendencies are and what they do, so it's just all about putting the game plan together and making sure that the game plan is a game plan that can take advantage of the things that they do.''

The winning team has scored 30-plus points in 13 of the last 15 contests between the former NFC West rivals.

HOW THEY GOT HERE: Rams - 2nd place, NFC West; beat Seattle Seahawks 27-20, wild-card round. Falcons - 1st place, NFC South; first-round bye.

RAMS LEADERS: Offense - Bulger, 3,964 passing yards and 21 passing TDs; Faulk, 774 rushing yards; Jackson, 4 rushing TDs; Holt, 94 receptions, 1,372 receiving yards and 10 receiving TDs. Defense - Bryce Fisher, 8 1/2 sacks; Jerametrius Butler, 5 INTs.

FALCONS LEADERS: Offense - Vick, 2,313 passing yards and 14 passing TDs; Dunn, 1,106 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs; Alge Crumpler, 48 receptions, 774 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs. Defense - Kerney, 13 sacks; Aaron Beasley, 4 interceptions.

RAMS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 101.5 yards per game (26th in NFL); Passing Offense - 265.8 ypg (5th); Total Offense - 367.3 ypg (6th). Rushing Defense - 136.2 ypg (29th); Passing Defense - 198.4 ypg (11th); Total Defense - 334.6 ypg (17th).

FALCONS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 167.0 yards per game (1st); Passing Offense - 150.8 ypg (30th); Total Offense - 317.8 ypg (20th). Rushing Defense - 105.1 ypg (9th); Passing Defense - 220.4 ypg (22nd); Total Defense - 325.4 ypg (14th).

LAST MEETING: Sept. 19; Falcons, 34-17. At Atlanta, Dunn had two touchdown runs and Smith recovered a Bulger fumble for a score as the Falcons won their second straight to open the season.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Rams - RB Faulk has averaged 113.3 yards per game and 6.3 per carry (143 for 906) in nine career games against the Falcons. ... WR Bruce has four career playoff games with 100 yards receiving and needs one to tie Andre Reed and John Stallworth for third all-time, trailing leader Jerry Rice (eight). ... In St. Louis' three straight wins, Bulger has posted a 108.7 passer rating (988 yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) and completed 68.4 percent of his throws (67-for-98). Falcons - Atlanta is hosting a postseason contest for the first time since a 20-18 win over San Francisco in a 1998 divisional playoff game. Mora was the 49ers secondary coach in that game. ... QB Vick is 23-12-1 as a starter, including wins in 13 of his last 17 games. ... Crumpler set franchise TE records with 48 receptions and 774 yards. He led NFL players at his position with 16.1 yards per catch (minimum 30 catches) and had 17 receptions of 20-plus yards, second among TEs.

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Rams - 3-6 on the road; Falcons - 7-1 at home.

INJURIES: Rams - QUESTIONABLE: RB Arlen Harris (hamstring); DE Tyoka Jackson (ankle). PROBABLE: WR Bruce (groin/hand); RB Steven Jackson (ribs); DT Jimmy Kennedy (foot); G Tom Nutten (knee); G Adam Timmerman (foot/knee). Falcons - None.

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:21 PM

Minnesota (8-8) at Philadelphia (13-3)

Game Info: 1:00 pm EST Sun Jan 16, 2005

Randy Moss has angered teammates, been embroiled in controversy and bothered by injury.
At least he'll be on the field. Terrell Owens won't be.

That puts a bigger burden on Donovan McNabb as the Philadelphia Eagles seek a third consecutive trip to the NFC Championship game, with Moss and the Minnesota Vikings hoping to spoil that bid by finding holes in a defense full of Pro Bowlers.

``I expect a big game from Randy every single time we go out,'' Vikings receiver Nate Burleson said. ``It's hard for him, because everybody gives him a lot of flak about certain things that he does, but really when it comes down to it that's a guy that I know I would rather have than any other receiver in this league.''

All eyes will be on Moss, not just to see what he can do against an Eagles secondary that may be the NFL's best -- one that held him in check in Week 2 -- but also for whatever his latest antics may include.

That's another reason Owens gets so much attention, but he won't be returning any sooner than the Super Bowl due to torn ankle ligaments.

``You guys said T.O. took the pressure off of me. Now I guess I have all the pressure again,'' McNabb said. ``I love pressure. I love to step out there and everybody is standing on their feet with their mouth wide open to find out what I'm going to do next. ... Buckle your seat belts and enjoy the ride.''

The absence of Owens isn't the only reason many are wondering how the Eagles will fare as they enter the postseason, looking to finally make the Super Bowl following three straight NFC title game defeats. Philadelphia hasn't played a meaningful game in nearly a month, and it's been even longer since it truly looked like the NFC's most dominant team.

``We love it when people doubt us,'' Eagles cornerback Sheldon Brown said. ``They don't expect us to do anything because we don't have T.O. That's the best situation to be in.''

Moss hasn't put himself in the best of situations recently.

He annoyed many teammates and coaches in the regular season-ending, 21-18 loss at Washington by leaving the field with two seconds to play. Last week, he ruffled feathers by pretending to moon the crowd in Green Bay after scoring a late touchdown in the Vikings' 31-17 wild-card victory.

Moss had four catches for 70 yards and caught two of Daunte Culpepper's four touchdown passes despite playing with a sprained right ankle.

``That's Randy,'' Vikings center Matt Birk said. ``You take the good with the bad.''

While Moss missed practice Wednesday but is expected to play, Owens' injury changes the dynamic of an Eagles offense that often looked unstoppable.

Owens helped McNabb have a career year, but was hurt in a Week 15 win over Dallas that allowed Philadelphia to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. McNabb barely played in the last two games, and new top option Brian Westbrook didn't play at all as the Eagles' backups lost to St. Louis and Cincinnati.

``The positives about it is that we're fresh and ready to go,'' McNabb said. ``We got all our guys healthy. It's sad when you don't play one or two games and all of a sudden people think you're out of sync.

``We'll be ready to go. We'll be fired up.''

Even in the previous two games -- ones that mattered and in which Owens played -- Philadelphia did not look good against teams that both finished 6-10. The Eagles won 17-14 at Washington and beat the Cowboys 12-7.

With Owens missing and the Vikings considered to have a suspect defense, the featured matchup Sunday is Minnesota's potent passing offense against Philadelphia's secondary.

``You've got to have that attack attitude,'' Vikings tight end Jermaine Wiggins said. ``You've got to jump on somebody's throat, and you've just got to smother them.''

Culpepper threw for 284 yards last week and set a team playoff record with his 137.1 passer rating. Minnesota had lost four of five to close the regular season, but the wild-card win was another example of how Culpepper just keeps playing well.

He's thrown for at least 270 yards in five straight games, totaling 13 touchdown passes and one interception. Culpepper has found another reliable target besides Moss, with Burleson having caught four TD passes in the last four weeks.

That trio is going up against a defensive backfield that includes three Pro Bowlers -- cornerback Lito Sheppard and safeties Brian Dawkins and Michael Lewis. Linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and pass rusher Jevon Kearse also made the team.

The 6-foot-4 Moss has a half-foot advantage over Sheppard and Brown, both generously listed at 5-foot-10, though that duo limited him to 69 yards in Philadelphia's 27-16 win over the visiting Vikings on Sept. 20.

The Eagles allowed the fewest points in the NFC (260), and gave up just 200.8 passing yards per game despite winning many blowouts in which opponents were forced to throw often.

``We're on an elevator,'' Sheppard said. ``We're on the 17th floor now. We have three more floors to go. Until we get to our peak, we're still getting better.''

HOW THEY GOT HERE: Vikings - 2nd place, NFC North; beat Green Bay Packers 31-17, wild-card round. Eagles - 1st place, NFC East; first-round bye.

VIKINGS LEADERS: Offense - Culpepper, 4,717 passing yards and 39 passing TDs; Onterrio Smith, 544 rushing yards; Moe Williams, 3 rushing TDs; Wiggins, 87 receptions; Burleson, 1,006 receiving yards; Moss, 13 receiving TDs. Defense - Kevin Williams, 12 sacks; Antoine Winfield, 3 INTs.

EAGLES LEADERS: Offense - McNabb, 3,875 passing yards and 31 passing TDs; Westbrook, 812 rushing yards; Dorsey Levens, 4 rushing TDs; Owens, 77 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards and 14 receiving TDs. Defense - Kearse, 7 1/2 sacks; Sheppard, 5 INTs.

VIKINGS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 113.9 yards per game (18th in NFL); Passing Offense - 282.3 ypg (2nd); Total Offense - 396.2 ypg (4th). Rushing Defense - 125.4 ypg (21st); Passing Defense - 243.0 ypg (27th); Total Defense - 368.4 ypg (28th).

EAGLES TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 102.4 yards per game (24th); Passing Offense - 248.7 ypg (7th); Total Offense - 355.1 ypg (9th). Rushing Defense - 118.9 ypg (16th); Passing Defense - 200.8 ypg (12th); Total Defense - 310.8 ypg (10th).

LAST MEETING: Sept. 20; Eagles, 27-16. At Philadelphia, McNabb threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as the Eagles benefitted from two costly Minnesota miscues -- Culpepper's fumble and Moss' pass-interference penalty.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Eagles - Following a bye week, including playoffs, coach Andy Reid is 8-0. ... Westbrook was the only NFL player with at least 700 yards rushing and receiving (703). His 1,515 yards from scrimmage ranked fourth in the NFC even though he missed three games due to injury. ... Seventeen players had sacks for Philadelphia, which was second in the NFL with 47. Vikings - Minnesota has lost its last five games at Philadelphia and hasn't won there since Dec. 1, 1985. ... WR Moss has 672 yards receiving and nine touchdowns in seven career playoff games. He has 22 TDs in his last 19 games overall. ... The Vikings offense averaged 6.4 yards per play and 4.7 yards per rush during the regular season, ranking second in the NFL in both, and had almost identical averages last week (6.5, 4.7).

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Vikings - 4-5 on the road; Eagles - 7-1 at home.

INJURIES: Vikings - DOUBTFUL: S Corey Chavous (elbow); RB Moe Williams (ankle). PROBABLE: WR Kelly Campbell (shoulder); WR Moss (ankle); LB Mike Nattiel (knee). Eagles - OUT: WR Owens (ankle). DOUBTFUL: LB Mark Simoneau (ankle). PROBABLE: DE Derrick Burgess (sternal seperation); S Dawkins (illness); TE Chad Lewis (tricep); G Jermane Mayberry (tricep); S Quintin Mikell (shoulder); WR Todd Pinkston (knee); LB Ike Reese (knee); TE L.J. Smith (back); DT Hollis Thomas (elbow); LB Nate Wayne (hamstring).

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:22 PM

Indianapolis (12-4) at New England (14-2)

Game Info: 4:30 pm EST Sun Jan 16, 2005

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is often called a defensive genius. His uncanny ability to slow down Peyton Manning and the explosive Indianapolis Colts is one reason why that label fits so well.
Belichick will try to help his team overcome its decimated secondary and find a way to limit Manning again as the defending champion Patriots face the Colts in a divisional round playoff game at Gillette Stadium.

While every other opponent seems to have no chance at stopping Manning, the two-time league MVP, Belichick and the Patriots have had remarkable success against the league's best quarterback and the NFL's most potent offense.

New England has won five straight against Manning and the Colts, including a 27-24 victory in this season's opener and a 24-14 win in last year's AFC Championship game.

Manning has never won at New England, losing all six games there with a dismal 59.6 passer rating. In 11 games when facing Belichick as a head coach or a defensive coordinator, Manning has thrown 19 touchdowns with 18 interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 74.3, nearly 20 points lower than against all other opponents.

Belichick, however, doesn't believe he does anything special against Manning.

``Nobody wants to see me on the field against Peyton Manning,'' he said. ``Not me, not any fan. Nobody except the Colts.''

In last season's AFC Championship game, the Patriots intercepted Manning four times, but three of those were by standout cornerback Ty Law, out for the season with a foot injury. Not only will be Patriots be without Law, one of the league's best at his position, but Tyrone Poole, their other starting corner, has been out since the fourth week of the season and will not play in the playoffs.

Without Law and Poole, Belichick has been forced to use wide receiver Troy Brown as a defensive back and linebacker Don Davis as a safety. Undrafted free agent Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland have also seen time in place of Law and Poole.

The Patriots signed cornerback Hank Poteat, who hasn't played since he was released by Carolina in the preseason, on Monday and he is eligible to play Sunday.

``It's certainly not an ideal situation at this point, but we'll do what we think is best,'' Belichick said.

Manning isn't ready to admit that the Patriots, despite their problems in the secondary, will be pushovers.

``It's been no Ty Law since the Pittsburgh game, and they win every game,'' he said. ``Ty is one of the top players in the NFL, and of course he's missed, but as we all say, 'Everybody else has to step up,' and they've been stepping up.''

Manning had one of the best regular seasons in league history, setting NFL records with 49 touchdown passes and a quarterback rating of 121.1. With his quick release and ability to read defenses, Manning can pick apart even the most accomplished secondary, making this perhaps the most challenging game of Belichick's career.

``At New England,'' said Manning, referring to last January's AFC Championship game, ``I played like an absolute dog. There's no question about it. We have to play great up there against a great team.''

Manning showed no signs of slowing down in last week's 49-24 rout of Denver, as he threw for 457 yards, second most in postseason history, and four touchdowns.

``It was outstanding execution throughout the entire game,'' Manning said. ``Tony (Dungy) talks about staying calm in pressure situations and it doesn't get more intense than the playoffs.''

Denver decided to take away favorite option Marvin Harrison early, so Manning turned to emerging star Reggie Wayne, who finished with 221 yards, third most in playoff history, on 10 catches with two touchdowns. Tight end Dallas Clark had six receptions for 113 yards and a score.

While the Colts have a more explosive offense than the Patriots, New England is a very capable offensive team as well and will be best served by holding the ball as long as possible to keep Manning off the field.

The Patriots have won two Super Bowls in three years without much of a running game, but that changed this season with the addition of Corey Dillon, who rushed for 1,635 yards in 15 games. Dillon figures to see plenty of touches against a Colts defense that ranked 24th against the run.

Though overshadowed by Manning, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has an excellent regular season and earned his second trip to the Pro Bowl. Brady, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has eight touchdowns and three interceptions in four career games against Indianapolis with a 106.3 passer rating.

Brady isn't concerned about the lack of attention he receives when compared to Manning.

``I have had way too much attention over the last three years to ever think that,'' he said. ``I mean, no way. No way.''

One of the unknown factors in this game will be the health of Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who sat out the last game of the regular season with an injured knee. Seymour is listed as questionable for Sunday.

The Patriots haven't lost a home game in more than two years, winning 19 in a row, including the postseason, since a 30-17 loss to the New York Jets on Dec. 22, 2002.

HOW THEY GOT HERE: Colts - 1st place, AFC South; beat Denver Broncos 49-24 in wild-card game. Patriots - 1st place, AFC East.

COLTS LEADERS: Offense - Manning, 4,557 passing yards and 49 passing TDs; Edgerrin James, 1,548 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs; Harrison, 86 receptions and 15 receiving TDs; Wayne, 1,210 receiving yards. Defense - Dwight Freeney, 16 sacks; Jason David, 4 INTs.

PATRIOTS LEADERS: Offense - Brady, 3,692 yards and 28 passiong TDs; Dillon, 1,635 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs; David Givens, 56 receptions and 874 receiving yards; David Patten, 7 receiving TDs. Defense - Willie McGinest, 9 1/2 sacks; Eugene Wilson, 4 INTs.

COLTS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 115.8 yards per game (15th); Passing Offense - 288.9 ypg (1st); Total Offense - 404.7 ypg (2nd). Rushing Defense - 127.3 ypg (24th); Passing Defense - 243.2 ypg (28th); Total Defense - 370.6 ypg (29th).

PATRIOTS TEAM RANK: Rushing offense - 133.4 yards per game (7th); Passing Offense - 224.2 ypg (11th); Total Offense - 357.6 ypg (7th). Rushing Defense - 98.2 (6th); Passing Defense - 212.5 (17th); Total Defense - 310.8 ypg (9th).

LAST MEETING: Sept. 9; Patriots, 27-24. At Foxboro, Mass., Brady threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns, and Mike Vanderjagt missed a 48-yard field goal with 19 seconds left, giving New England its 16th straight victory.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Colts - Indianapolis hasn't won in Foxboro since Nov. 19, 1995, losing seven straight there. ... WR Harrison is the NFL's all-time leading receiver for the first nine seasons of a career with 845 catches. ... The Colts are just the fourth team in league history with three receivers -- Harrison, Wayne and Brandon Stokley -- with over 1,000 yards receiving. Patriots - New England's 14-2 record is the best by a defending Super Bowl champion. ... Brady is 6-0 as a playoff starter and his .774 (48-14) win percentage is the best among active quarterbacks with 16 or more starts. ... WR Patten finished third in the NFL this season in yards-per-catch (18.2).

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Colts - 5-3 on the road; Patriots - 8-0 at home.

INJURIES: Colts - DOUBTFUL: DE Robert Mathis (knee). QUESTIONABLE: LB Gilbert Gardner (shoulder); DT Josh Williams (shoulder). PROBABLE: TE Dallas Clark (back); CB Jason David (foot); CB Nick Harper (neck); LB Cato June (ankle/knee); LB Rob Morris (neck); RB James Mungro (toe); TE Marcus Pollard (ankle); S Bob Sanders (hand); LB David Thornton (groin). Patriots - QUESTIONABLE: LB Eric Alexander (ankle); LB Matt Chatham (knee); RB Kevin Faulk (knee); DE Seymour (knee).

**Spark** · 01-14-2005, 09:23 PM

HANDICAPPING NFL PLAYOFFS
January 7, 2005 - *******

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The beginning of the NFL playoffs means just there are just 11 more games in the season to make a profit, 12 if you’re silly enough to bet the Pro Bowl! It can be an anxious time for bettors, many realizing that their take or loss for the season has essentially already been determined.

Take it from someone who knows, this is a time where money management skills and staying on top of the key factors for each game becomes essential. While not wanting to get too deep into the psyche of the sports bettor, ******* would like to stress that there is hope after football, as we pride ourselves on providing the most comprehensive basketball and baseball handicapping matchup information, in addition to our highly acclaimed football service.

However, if you truly are a single sport enthusiast, and you are insistent on making your mark this NFL postseason, arm yourself with the best game by game football handicapping information around, the FoxSheets. While you’re at it, also make sure you get a grasp for the general patterns or trends that have formed in recent playoff action.

After all, the successful teams take their games to the next level in the playoffs, so should the handicapper. So stay tuned as later we’ll provide details on how you can gain access to the FoxSheets, and we’ll also try to uncover any post season secrets that could help you be a big winner this year! But first, a brief overview of the upcoming action appears below.

For the first time in many NFL seasons, parity was a word given little use. Five teams in particular, Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, and Philadelphia completely separated themselves from the rest of the pack. All five of those teams won 12 games or more, and that figure could have easily been higher had it not been for the choice to rest starters in late season games.

Of course, you’ll notice that Philadelphia is the NFC’s lone representative from that elite pack, as the AFC completely dominated inter-conference play. The Eagles are the consensus favorite to win the conference title this month but their odds were cut drastically when star WR Terrell Owens went out late with a ankle injury. He is expected to miss the entire NFC playoffs, thereby opening the door for the other five hopeful teams. Of those other squads, Atlanta, Green Bay, and Seattle are considered the likely contenders.

Fittingly, the two final NFC spots were occupied by the 5th and 6th .500 teams in playoff history, St Louis and Minnesota. The American Conference is a much different story, with perhaps the four best teams in the NFL battling for the right to just make it to Jacksonville for Super Bowl XXXIX. Pittsburgh, at 15-1, owns home field advantage throughout, riding the right arm of rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger, a powerful running game, and a solid defense.

Defending champion New England is the 2nd seed, while Indianapolis and surprising San Diego round out the top four. Indianapolis looks to take the next step in its franchise growth pattern and is led by certain league MVP Peyton Manning, coming off the greatest season by a quarterback in the history of the NFL. The Jets and the Broncos are the final two playoff reps, but each of those teams faces long odds having to win three road games vs. an unprecedented field of AFC powers. The field is wide open, and this year’s playoffs figure to be some of the most exciting and competitive in recent memory.

Overall Playoff Trends

Of the 120 playoff games since ’93, the TEAM THAT WON SU failed to cover the spread only 17 times. However, make note that this unusual circumstance has occurred six times in the past two years.

HOME TEAMS are 86-34 SU & 64-50-6 ATS since ’93. The ROAD TEAMS have turned things around recently however, going 16-13-1 ATS in the past three years’ playoff action.

In games between DIVISIONAL RIVALS, the home team’s win percentage drops about 2% to 69.7% (16-7 SU & 12-9-1 ATS).

FAVORITES are 59-51-6 ATS since the ’93 season, but just 23-25-1 ATS over the past five years.

Of any betting line scenario, ROAD FAVORITES have proven to be the worst play. Since ’95, road teams laying points are just 2-6 SU & 1-6-1 ATS. The only road favorite to win SU & ATS in that span was Green Bay in the ’98 NFC title game at San Francisco.

DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 15-5 SU since ’93, but just 10-9-1 ATS in that span. Considering favorites overall win at a 71% clip, there is little increased certainty that larger favorite will prevail.

TOTALS in playoff games have generally been sided towards the OVER as 63 of 120 games have gone that way.

TEASING TOTALS has proven a losing proposition in playoff betting. In 74 of the 120 games, the total actual points scored in playoff games proved to be 6-1/2 points or more off of the posted total. In fact, the average difference from the actual points scored to the posted total in all games was a startling 11.4 PPG.

In games with TOTALS OVER 50, the results are 8/3 OVER/UNDER. In fact, all of the last five playoff games with a posted total above 50 have gone OVER. This weekend’s Wildcard games present at least two opportunities to take advantage of this.

Playoff Trends by Round

Wildcard Round

The SU WINNER of the Wildcard playoff games is 41-4-3 ATS. However, three of those 4 ATS losses have come in the past two years.

The HOME TEAM in WC playoff games is 36-12 SU, 29-16-3 ATS since ’93, but again, ROAD TEAMS have turned things around the past two years, going 5-3 ATS.

The FAVORED TEAM is 32-16 SU & 25-19-3 ATS in the Wildcard round since ’93. Of the 16 upsets, 10 have come in the NFC.

HOME FAVORITES in the –4 to –6.5 line range are 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS, noteworthy only in that three of this weekend’s four games fall into that line scenario.

OVER bets have had a slight advantage in the Wildcard round, converting 25 of 48 times for 52%. A posted TOTAL of 41 or HIGHER seems to be a significant benchmark in that 11 of 18 games have gone OVER. All four games have a total higher than 41 this weekend.

Divisional Playoff Round

The HOME TEAM has enjoyed its most success in the Divisional Playoff round, with a SU record of 37-11 and an ATS mark of 25-21-2 since ’93.

No. 1 SEEDS have been just a hair better than the No. 2 SEEDS, going 19-5 SU & 14-10 ATS in their half of the games.

Remarkably, in 2004, all four ROAD DOGS won ATS, with two pulling the outright upset.

There has only been one ROAD FAVORITE in this round in the L12 years, that being Dallas, who lost at Carolina 26-17 in 1997.

DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are prevalent in this round, and they are 9-3 SU & 7-4-1 ATS.

No. 5 SEEDS who advanced to the Divisional round have performed at a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS clip. No. 6 SEEDS, on the other hand, have found the going difficult here, losing all seven tries SU while covering just twice. The average loss margin in that stretch is 21.6 PPG.

TOTALS in the Divisional round share an identical record as the Wildcard round, 25 OVERS, 23 UNDERS.

Conference Championship Round

In a stretch that began with the two Championship games of January ‘00, the UNDERDOG has covered eight of the last 10 games of this round.

The last NFC FAVORITE to both win and cover in the conference title game was Green Bay, who actually accomplished the feat in back to back years in ’97 & ’98.

Over the past seven seasons, the HOME TEAM owns a disturbing 6-8 SU record and an ATS mark of 4-9-1.

In games with SPREADS LESS THAN A TD, ROAD TEAMS are 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS, indicating further that home field advantage has proved of little value in this round.

This year’s No. 1 SEEDS, PITTSBURGH & PHILADELPHIA, have had a miserable time in conference title games of late. Pittsburgh, the AFC top seed, is 1-3 SU (0-3-1 ATS) in four home AFC title games since ’95, while Philadelphia has lost the last three NFC Championship games and is 1-2 ATS in that span.

The last four No. 4 SEEDS (Buffalo ’93, Denver ’98, Tennessee ’00, Baltimore ’01) to advance to the AFC Championship are 3-0-1 ATS in that game, and have advanced to the Super Bowl each time. Incidentally, no seed #4 or lower and only three #3 SEEDS have made it to the NFC Championship game.

As in past rounds, TOTALS again favor the OVER, 13-11 in this case, for 54%

Announcement

Some Trends/Angles/Reports 1/15-1/16

Some Trends/Angles/Reports 1/15-1/16

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