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I've never posted on here, and I will not claim to hit a ridiculous percentage of wins. I will supply my picks and probably not keep a record until next year. In the regular season I did quite well, especially after playing my own picks, because I stayed on a system that was based on turnover ratio until that point of the year. Teams that were 10 or more turnovers better than their opponents covered/won outright a majority of the time. Even teams with any better turnover ratio, as long as theirs was on the positive side, covered the majority of the time. TURNOVERS CAUSE kovers.
Next I would compare the Feist Value Index for the two teams, if his value was in favor of the team with the better turnover ratio, hten I would increase my play's value.
Teams that are excluded from this system were:
1. Green Bay--Brett Favre is too unpredictable, he throws too many interceptions, but he knows how to win, and I think the cover is in his head much of the time. They ended up at -14, but they covered more than they should have. I've been a Packer fan for my entire life, and Favre put me through hell and ecstacy, but I know when to lay off the Packers, and do not bet them because they are my team.
2. Atlanta--Michael Vick the same thing. I am anxious to see Favre play against Vick in the Divisional Playoffs. A hint of a pick maybe.
3. Seattle--I lost a ton on them this year. They force alot of turnovers, but their offense is putrid, catch a pass.
On to my picks and a short reason why.
Saturday: Lines as of Friday Night
1 Unit--St. Louis Rams (+4) 110/100
Seattle hasn't won three games in a row since the beginning of the season (Weeks 1-3). Much has changed since then and there is no way that the battle of bumbling coaches will come down to a Favre-less Holmgren. If he would run the ball 35 times with Alexander they would cruise, but he won't. Even though the Seahawks are a 32 better in the turnover department, Seattle is one of the exceptions that make the rule.
1 Unit--San Diego (-6.5) 110/100
San Diego is a covering machine.
Sunday:
1.5 Unit --Indianapolis (-9.5) 1 Unit --Over 55.5 165/150 & 110/100
+28 (+19, -9), Jake Plummer in a playoff game, you got to be kidding me. Manning with something to prove to the "big two" in the AFC. Garbage points by the overly dominated Broncos lead to the over, but no backdoor cover. I'm not sure, but I don't think when teams play in week 17 and Wild Card Weekend, no team won both times. Lay the wood.
1.5 Unit --Green Bay (-6) 165/150 1 Unit--Over 51 (added pick, (total))
Only reason they are not a 2 unit play is because they beat Minnesota twice in the regular season. Minnesota is injured, and Al Harris kovers (contains) Moss rather well. Favre against the Vikings in Lambeau in December is a good pick, especially Favre in the Primetime in Lambeau in a big game. Poor defenses in divisional rival games should equal an "over" again.
Hopefully my debut will be good. All systems and theories are out in the playoffs, at least I think so.
Next I would compare the Feist Value Index for the two teams, if his value was in favor of the team with the better turnover ratio, hten I would increase my play's value.
Teams that are excluded from this system were:
1. Green Bay--Brett Favre is too unpredictable, he throws too many interceptions, but he knows how to win, and I think the cover is in his head much of the time. They ended up at -14, but they covered more than they should have. I've been a Packer fan for my entire life, and Favre put me through hell and ecstacy, but I know when to lay off the Packers, and do not bet them because they are my team.
2. Atlanta--Michael Vick the same thing. I am anxious to see Favre play against Vick in the Divisional Playoffs. A hint of a pick maybe.
3. Seattle--I lost a ton on them this year. They force alot of turnovers, but their offense is putrid, catch a pass.
On to my picks and a short reason why.
Saturday: Lines as of Friday Night
1 Unit--St. Louis Rams (+4) 110/100
Seattle hasn't won three games in a row since the beginning of the season (Weeks 1-3). Much has changed since then and there is no way that the battle of bumbling coaches will come down to a Favre-less Holmgren. If he would run the ball 35 times with Alexander they would cruise, but he won't. Even though the Seahawks are a 32 better in the turnover department, Seattle is one of the exceptions that make the rule.
1 Unit--San Diego (-6.5) 110/100
San Diego is a covering machine.
Sunday:
1.5 Unit --Indianapolis (-9.5) 1 Unit --Over 55.5 165/150 & 110/100
+28 (+19, -9), Jake Plummer in a playoff game, you got to be kidding me. Manning with something to prove to the "big two" in the AFC. Garbage points by the overly dominated Broncos lead to the over, but no backdoor cover. I'm not sure, but I don't think when teams play in week 17 and Wild Card Weekend, no team won both times. Lay the wood.
1.5 Unit --Green Bay (-6) 165/150 1 Unit--Over 51 (added pick, (total))
Only reason they are not a 2 unit play is because they beat Minnesota twice in the regular season. Minnesota is injured, and Al Harris kovers (contains) Moss rather well. Favre against the Vikings in Lambeau in December is a good pick, especially Favre in the Primetime in Lambeau in a big game. Poor defenses in divisional rival games should equal an "over" again.
Hopefully my debut will be good. All systems and theories are out in the playoffs, at least I think so.
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