Buying the hook

[fats12]

Three times this week I lost by not buying the hook. Tonight was Pacific. Anyone have advise or are there any long term information/stats on the benefits? Told by some to always buy it...Starting to agree!!


Thanks,

Fatman

[10DimeBry]

fats,

This is just how I feel. In hoops I never buy points. Only rarely in NFL do I buy points and its only 1/2pt max. I dont play teasers or parleys. This is just how I am. Some people will say just the opposite. I feel in the long term buying points is just a sucker bet. Its difficult enough to lay 110 to win 100 and be profitable I cant imagine laying 120 or more just to gain 1/2 or 1pt and having it make a difference in the long run. I mean seriously if buying points was to your advantage would vegas even offer it as an option????

[BiloxiUMreb]

Fats

I haven't researched the hoops hook yet. FWIW, I have analyzed NFL buys back to 1991. Here is the bottom line. Since that time, there has been only ONE profitable buy. Specifically, at or near 3 (2.5 and 3.5), it has been an 11% proftable play to buy ONTO 3. In other words, buy out of a loss and onto a push. There have been NO other profitable buys during that time. ANY buys on other key numbers, 4,6,7,10 and 14 are losing props. Will see about running this scenario against my hoops database, but it will be significantly more involved since there are no "key numbers" in basketball. My instinct is that, even though this has been a lousy week for you with half point losses, its just a statistical aberration. I know its isn't gonna be a plus play to buy on EVERY game, so determininig when to and when not to is gonna be really problematic. Give me a couple weeks to see what I can come up with, and, until then, I hope you start catching some half point breaks instead of half point hoses...

[BigTicket]

Just wait, shortly Frankb will show up with his stats confirming that buying points is definitely not worth it in the long run.

[Ripple]

i know everyone will disagree with me about buying pts but here is my theory and what i do???..back in late oct, 2004 three nites in a row i lost basketball games by the hook, and was pissed.2 of the 3 games i lost started a nice action if bet.Since that day i been buying the hook on all my plays in basketball.Last night i bought the hook for -120 on tenn martin and made it + 4 instead of +3 1/2 and i pushed instead of losing.This is the first time since i started to do this that i needed to.On 1 of the 3 games i lost one was and over under so i do that now also..I know a book thats a great book once football is over if u bet 3 games at once and keep them all around the same dollar amount u get an extra 1/2 point.Also at this book if you wager over the internet on basketball games between 6-7 pm they give you an extra 1/2 point.i havent checked there website as of yet.I only use this big book for baskets and no other sport..Rip

[lmercer213]

It's even worse for me, I go through a local and he always boosts the points up!!
I figure if its worth betting at -3 its worth it at -4, or if you that worried you can always go the other way, or god forbid STAY OFF!!!
good luck and just remember, the system ISN'T designed for us to win!!!

[savage1]

For what its worth. I do buy off the 1/2 on occasion to get a better line(e.g.-buy from 11 1/2 to 11 or from 11 1/2 to 12) .
What I do sometimes to compensate for the added vig is simply to reduce the amount of the bet.

[drugstuntman]

Great thread - I look forward to the vets helping us out on this...

[fats12]

Thanks guys!

[magicmist]

in football if line is 3.5 or 7.5 its worth its otherwise its not worth it if your that jittery on a team back away. JMO.

[linemover]

you are waisting money buying points in any sport-on any number-except buy to 3 in NFL-thats it-anything else and you are making your book rich-i know from years of personal experience-if it does not come into effect more than 1 in 10 times you lose money-guess what it doesnt come into effect even 1 in 20 times-go through the last 50 games and see if buying the hook would have mattered-i found 2 in the last 50 games-those are not good odds-good luck and this is my advice

[CoverBoy]

1/2 Point

My feeling is that the 2 most important numbers in all of sports are 3 for the NFL ( especially in the last 1/3 of the season ) and 2 in the NBA

My standard deal is that in exchange for my action I Always recieve 1/2 point for all bets.

Please negotiate ... there's lots of room for perks ... don't be afraid to discuss this amicably with whomever.

Best of Luck

-cb

[frankb03]

Fats

Three times this week I lost by not buying the hook. Tonight was Pacific. Anyone have advise or are there any long term information/stats on the benefits? Told by some to always buy it...Starting to agree!!


Thanks,

Fatman

I've created two threads, one for NFL and the other for the NBA with analysis on 1/2 point buying. In the NFL with certain lines buying can be to the players advantage such as on and off 3.

In the NBA there are no advantage for the player to buy the 1/2. Too many games! Too much scoring.

[fats12]

I've created two threads, one for NFL and the other for the NBA with analysis on 1/2 point buying. In the NFL with certain lines buying can be to the players advantage such as on and off 3.

In the NBA there are no advantage for the player to buy the 1/2. Too many games! Too much scoring.

Thanks Frank....You are the man
!!!

[RJeremy]

fats,

never buy the 1/2 point or tease in NBA or any basketball. worst bet ever!!! i have this proved with a couple prof. gamblers and years of tracking. honest. nfl, i agree it is worth it sometimes to tease, but NEVER buy a half point. I wish i knew where the write up was that i had last year, but it went something like this. Only like 3% of the games in the NFL would've been helped by buying the 1/2 down to 3 instead of 3.5, which means you are wasting your money buying the .5 point.

Trust me, it's not worth it in the long run to buy the 1/2 point.