Got go with the Home team in this one as Villa will be without their leading scorer and rebounder Sumpter (17.7 ppg and 8.8 rpg)....Villa has a deep bench, but they needed Sumpter as he is probably the only big guy who can match up with the Friars Gomes...Without him in this game, Gomes should be able to dominate the paint as he's been doing (20.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.5 apg)....Nova will probably counter this in two ways...one they will leave it up to their other big man 6-9 Jr Fraser (6.2 ppg adn 6.3 rpg) to guard Gomes, which he cant do as he will get out muscled and seriously cant handle the physical play down low full on as he is also coming off of a knee inj....
Nova's second option to trying to minimize Gomes threat in the paint is to play Zone Defense against them....This is how other teams were trying to deal with him dominance in the paint...but what happens here is it will open up the perimeter for the Friar's Guards Brewington (13.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 2.9 apg) and Mcgrath (7.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, and 4.1 apg) to hit the treys, while also giving the rest of the team more available good shots to take....With the absence of Sumpter, I feel Nova will have no choice but to play Zone against the Friar's...but Sumpters absense will be felt even more because now, the Friars should definately have the advantage in the paint as Gomes, Kotti, and Hill should find a lot of success on the boards, and especially when Nova goes to their 3 guard sets...To beat Providence, you need to be able to outboard them as BC did in the Friars last lost...
Some stats of importance:
-When Providence averaged 39.6 rebs per each of their victories and just 29.2 rebs in their defeats...
-Gomes has scored over 20 pts in 6 of his last 7 games...
-Big reason for Providence losing their last game vs BC, a game they should of won, was due mostly to Kotti, McGrath, and Brewington all going scoreless in the 2nd half vs the Eagles....Dont see this happening again as the Friars are at Home now where they have been averaging 80 ppg, shooting 48% from the field, and 36% from 3 pt land.
-Nova on the Road this year is only averaging 59.3 ppg, 34.8% shooting from the field, and just 16.7% from 3 pt land..
-Providence also plays a very tough Zone Defense which will be even harder to score or rebound against without Sumpter's presence...and the way Nova has been struggling on the road shooting, they may find it impossible to beat it...
-Friars lead the league in steals with 10.14 per game..
The Razorbacks lost their last game to a solid Florida team, but it was due to a lack of focus on their part for some reason...and not due to lack of talent...These kinds of things do happen when a team like the Razorbacks go on a long winning streak, as things seem to come to easy for them and thus players get to overconfident at times....But, I think this is a good thing for us tonight..as that lost to Florida surely got back their attention...and their attention tonight will definately be needed as they face # 21 ranked Alabama...
The Hogs, as I mentioned do have the talent on both sides of the ball as they was the # 2 ranked FG shooting team in the SEC, as well as, the # 1 ranked team in the league and # 12 ranked team in the nation in FG defense, before they traveled and lost in Gator Country...Before this lost to Florida, the Razorbacks in 13 of their last 14 games were only allowing their opponents to shoot a measely 36.3 % from the field...Tonight this one is back at Home where the Razorbacks are 11-1 only losing to # 1 Illinois.....
Some Stats and Info in regarding this one:
-Arkansas shooting 42.6% compared to Alabama's 37% from 3 pt land..
-Arkansas shooting 50% from the field compared to Alabama's 48%.
-Arkansas better defensive team averaging 10.4 steals per game to Alabama's 5.4...and they also average 6.9 blocks per game to Bama's 4.8.
-Alabama is ranked 11th in the league in 3 pt % FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 39.2% from behind the Arc....Arkansas is ranked 2nd in the league in 3pt FG%.
-In Bama's last 2 games, they allowed LSU to hit 8 of 16 and Vandy to hit 12 of 25 from behind the Arc.
Alabama is a solid team for sure, but tonight they are up against a Razorback team who is coming off a lost and who will be focused on making sure that they will not let up like last year, when they blew a 22 pt second half lead and ended up losing to the Tide 72-68....I am sure they still remember how they blew that one, and with their last lost to Gators also due to poor defensive play, I definately expect them to get back to doing what they do best..play SOLID DEFENSE!
Bama will also find thing a little tough tonight as their lack of depth should catch up to them tonight...Vs LSU, Bama only used 2 subs who only contributed just 3 pts and 3 rebs, this wont be enough vs this Arkansas squad who has a deep bench to go to...Tonight is a Double Revenger game for the Razorbacks and with SEC West leader Miss St coming up next, the Razorbacks will make sure that they dont slip up in this one tonight...Bama lost their last two road games to teams who play solid defense and who shoot the long ball very well...Tonight will be road loss number 3 for them...Go Razorbacks!.
Well Gang...after my Top Rated Plays go 4-1 on Sunday, 3-1 on Monday...today Tuesday they go 1-3 ...(losing w/ Prov, Ark, and St Marys)(winning w/ Missouri)
Note: all 3 losing teams were up at one time by at least 9 pts...and check some of these stats out...Unreal!
**Prov vs Villanova:
FG% Prov 49% vs Villa 39% Rebs Prov 41 vs Villa 35 Asst Prov 19 vs Villa 8 Blks Prov 16 vs Villa 5
------------------------------- TO's Prov 30 vs Villa 17 (just like in FB, you cant win when you turn ball over 2x's as much as your opponent.)
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-Prov's F Gomes has career night scoring 28 pts and 11 rebs.
-Prov's C Hill also has career night scoring 15 pts, 12 rebs, and 9 blk shot.
-Prov's also had a school record 16 block shots, which is only 1 short of a Conf record.
**Ark vs Ala
Stls Ark 5 vs Ala 2 Blks Ark 6 vs Ala 3 FT% Ark 60% vs Ala 54%
------------------------ Rebs Ark 20 vs Ala 30 (this hurt) TO'S Ark 5 vs Ala 12 (this should of helped)
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-Ark ranked # 1 in FG% defense allowing 37%...Ala shoots 54%.
-Ark ranked # 2 in 3 pt FG% defense allowing 28%....Ala shoots 46%.
-Ark ranked # 1 scoring defense allowing 59 ppg....Ala scores 64 pts.
-Ark had 8 more shot attempts then Ala.
-Ark's 3 subs had 9 pts and 7 rebs vs Ala's 3 subs, only 4 pts and 3 rebs...Unreal!
*St Mary's vs AF:
FG% St M 52% vs AF 43% 3pt% St M 50% vs AF 31% TO's St M 17 vs AF 8 FT atts St M 31 vs AF 9
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-St Mary's up by 13 pts at the half...win only by 1 pt...Unreal!
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*SUN, MON, and TUE--TOP RATED PLAYS (CBB) now:8W-5L= 62%
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