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The Lesson From the Last Two Nights

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  • The Lesson From the Last Two Nights

    I think some valuable lessons can be learned from the last two nights' football games.
    Here is my take and I would love to here yours:
    In actuality the games played both nights were quite different, and yet there is a lesson to be learned from each.
    Last night Auburn seemed to be a cinch to cover for most of the game and even more so late in the game.
    As we all saw last night, a desperation and lucky pass from V. Tech in closing moments resulted in a touchdown and a real backdoor cover;no service or newsletter can handicap that.
    Tonight was entirely different;huge money moved the line as much as 5 points from USC being a 3 point favorite to where Oklahoma was favored by as many as 2 points by the gametime.
    Judging by the lopsided score, it is obvious that big money had no idea as to what was going to transpire, as USC romped after Oklahoma scored opening touchdown.
    If you go back and read some of the longwinded analyses of both games by such folks as (You guessed it) Phil Steele, you will see how little relevance his writeups had to do with the flow of the games especially tonight.
    To me all games are dangerous to bet and especially Bowl Games .as so many intangibles not found in the running and passing stats. come into play(coaching, leadership, motivation, what team is affected more by layoff between end of regular season and the bowl games, etc.).
    Also, remember that these are kids playing in these Bowl Games, not professional athletes, and it is not 4 out of 7;it is one game and a lot of unexpected things can happen as we saw in the last two nights.
    I am sure my 'buddy"Phil Steele will be undaunted by the fact tghat he went 0-4 with his sides and totals during the two( in some ways) biggest games of the year and come right back at you the next couple of weekends with his 3* or higher various college all star games(North South-East West) and tell you that he can handicap them.
    In my estimation these all star games are monkey shine games, and anyone who says that they can handicap how one team made up of players who have never played together against another team made up of the same just wants your money;sorry that is reality, and I don't care what Phil Steele and others say to the contrary.
    Anyways, that is my take and best of luck to all in the NFL this weekend, where hopefully form will hold up better for those who rely on logic anyways.

  • #2
    I don't think it was 'big money', I think it was the east coast anti-Cali bias that pushed the line so far... I was worried that there was inside disiplinary info on the Trojan squad that was bringin in the whales but it was just the poor misguided hicks in 'fly-over country' praying that God would not let O.J's alma mater have a championship! I had SC -1- early.

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    • #3
      Sounds like we both rode another loser tonight. I for one am glad the Bowls are over. I found them to be totally perplexing and consuming. In the last month i've blown a "lung" on the Bowls" alone not to mention last weeks NFL BULLSHIT!!!
      Better days ahead!!! GL

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      • #4
        amen!!! it's over !!! i can never remeber a more difficult bowl season.. usually i can find 8 to 10 games to make nice moves on, not this year.... i really liked 5 games and went only 3-2 on them, and of course i played most all the others and lost my ass... maybe the fact south carolina and clemson withdrew from the bowls threw off some of the lower tier bowls.. i can sure as hell tell you i will never bet a bowl game with the likes of troy st. and nothern ill. playing in a monsoon ever again!!!! when you really think about it you have to be a fool to play any of these games..from lack the of common opponents to the unkown motivation of the teams ,coaching changes, bad weather, etc.. i am sure some people made some money this year , but i for one found it almost impossible!!!
        Last edited by psmitty; 01-05-2005, 02:36 AM.

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        • #5
          I don't think there's much lesson to be learned. Just when we think we know how to win that system loses and just when we think someone is horrible, he gets hot. People go in streaks. Look at Monday Night football this year, I never saw the books lose so many big games like that ever. I think tonight was simply for some odd reason people keep thinking USC is not special or over rated. They were by FAR the best team last year and of coourse this year as well. Now could you guys imagine if this USC team had Mike Williams this year? Its the stupid media who keeps hyping up Bob Stoops talking about his genius coaching, and now Stoops has lost two national title games in a row yet Pete Carroll has won two in a row and still USC gets no attention. They have 2 of the last 3 Heisman winners and we saw today Reggie Bush is better than Peterson as well. They have the last two titles and yet people ignored USC's speed and talent tonight. They did what to OU what OU does to everyone else. We all know USC could have scored 70+ tonight if they wanted to. Thats how good they are. But, cant blame gamblers. Its media keep on showing the Big 12 and teams like OU and show USC every blue moon and people before the game laughing at PAC 10 cause of the media. Trust me there wasn't too many people on the west coast that bet OU. I know this for a fact through one bookie. People who see USC on a regular basis knows this opportunity won't come by again, the number 1 team in the world and long ass winning streak GETTING points for the title. How many times willl we see that?

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          • #6
            usc was awsome!! but i really wish auburn with that defense and the improved play of jason campbell could of had a shot.. i am not saying they would have beaten the trojans, but i can sure as hell promise you they would performed better then the sorry ass okl. team that has flopped 2 years in a row in the bcs title game.. hopefully this fascination with okl. and stoops is over!!they play in conference that has no defense!!!when they finally hook up with a team that plays a little def.(LSU,USC) they loose!! jason white has won a heisman and has put up some huge numbers in that sorry ass confernce, but look how he has played in the big games against good def. out of conference!!!
            Last edited by psmitty; 01-05-2005, 02:29 AM.

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            • #7
              Fellas,

              The lesson is VERY simple, especially in high profile games...and it saves a lot of time and effort....no need to cap, study trends and angles, and all that other BS...simply watch the services and when they are overwhelmingly on one side, play the other...they were on Auburn big and were on Okie HUGE...guarantee if you ONLY follow this rule of thumb, you will easily hit between 60 and 70 percent...even higher if there are consensus service GOYs on one side! 'Tis true!

              Comment


              • #8
                conferences and systems

                I think the line moved towards Oklahoma because of the sub-par performance of other PAC 10 teams in bowls this year, inspiring a belief that the Pac 10 was an inferior conference. As we all know, year in and year out there are strong conferences and weak conferences but, at the same time, weak teams within strong conferences and vice versa. Regardless of what people think about PAC 10 football, USC clearly showed it's superiority in every phase of the game. I doubt that Auburn would have fared any better.

                In terms of service plays, I've used a system for several years that has consistently returned a profit. I keep the records of all late phone services from one year to the next. At the beginning of a new football season, I use only the cappers that had 58% winners or higher the previous season and then add or drop cappers using that base number as the new season progresses. I assign plays of the year and plays of the month 3 points, top plays 2 points and regular plays 1 point. Before each game begins, I total up the points and play every game that has four quality points or more. For example, if three services had Oklahoma as their "game of the year", Oklahoma would receive 9 points. Two other services have them as a top play, they receive 4 points. And six services have them as a regular play, they get 6 points for a total of 19 points. You total the other team the same way. If a combination of services of USC produced 13 points, you would substract 13 from 19 and end up with 6 quality points which would make Oklahoma a play.

                Doing this from the beginning of a season to the end consistently results in a winning percentage that averages around 60%.

                I noticed in a post a few days ago that someone took the time to total up the wins and losses of all late phone services and the result was very close to 50-50. Of course it would be because, as in every other endeavor, there are people who do well and people who don't. If you'll follow the people who, year after year, do well and ignore the ones who don't, you can become a consistent winner betting football, just as you would in any other area of your life.

                I would assume this method would also work for basketball and baseball, although I play neither one, so I've never charted them. I bet football only.
                mikeatnight

                If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten.

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                • #9
                  savage,

                  What I learned from these 2 games. First off I had Auburn and USC in the two games. If I was going to bet these games again I'd pick the same two teams. As far as the national championship game goes. These are the factors that made me make my wager. I originally liked Oklahoma +3 but with everyone including the media hyping Oklahoma and saying Cal laid an egg and is overrated and the pac-10 sucks it made me start really thinking. At that point everyone ie. joe public started hammering Oklahoma. From what I was told a sportsbook in vegas was taking bets of over a clip of 5 for oklahoma for every 1 on USC. Basically they were getting swamped with Oklahoma $$$
                  A 5 to 1 clip on a game of this magnitude is obsurd. That alone would put me on USC. But theres more. Not once on my line sheet do I show movement upward towards USC. That is EYE OPENING. The line opened at USC -3 and was bet downward ever sense. Everyone and their mother assumed the # set by vegas was a bad one. And USC would be exposed just like Cal.
                  2nd I looked at the history. USC got screwed last year and IMO they wanted to make a statement. They had something to prove. Also last year I learned a hard lesson. That lesson was never to bet on JASON WHITE in a big game. The guy is a CHOKE.

                  On top of all this I looked at something that stands out to me every year. That is the BCS every year regardless of W/L record,whomever wins the Big 12 title goes to the BCS title game no matter WHAT. Check it out. My point being, the public(committee) assumes that the Big 12 is the best conference in football. That alone should make you concerned. All of this and too top it off the service board had GOY locks of a life time and all that jazz on Oklahoma. It made my play on USC a real no brainer. The only reason I didnt make this play a max bet play for me was because it was a title game and nothing is a sure thing.

                  So all in all I guess I learned that I should bet what I like. If I had to do it all over my $$$ would still be on Auburn and USC.
                  2013 NCAA POD Record

                  8-3ATS +3.80 units

                  2013 NFL POD Record

                  1-2 ATS -4.50 units

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                  • #10
                    Mike, That is the exact system I have been using the last two years. I am interested to see how you came up with it. It tends to work more than it doesn't. However you would have had two losers anyway the last two nights

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                    • #11
                      i was going to stop on bowls at one, I bet my bowl cash on one game. Like Snipes said allways bet on Black. Give me Kirk Farentz and +6.5 anyday of the week. Most people i know were all laying huge on Okie and the line swung so much to Okie and the under i bet small on USC and the over so Im very happy with my limited bowl plays. Hope not too many got hurt by Okie last night.

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                      • #12
                        Thanks for all of the great responses so far;for me they are very helpful (and hopefully others) in seeing the thought processes that you used in making your bets as well as enlightening regarding the strange and one sided line movement we saw in last night's game.

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                        • #13
                          One comment/question from me regarding last night's game:
                          I am still bewildered by the fact that many people and services (not all obviously) had Oklahoma and poured millions of dollars into betting them and moving the line substantially.
                          As we saw, the stats, analysis, etc.that those who picked Oklahoma based on regular season had very little relevance judging by USC's total dominance.
                          I know they say in NFL on any given Sunday any team can beat any other team.
                          I wonder if on a given night, and say if this was the regular season without the layoff, Oklahoma might have fared better last night and given a more respectable showing.
                          My gut tells me if they play 10 times, USC would win at least 7 times and maybe even more.
                          My secondary question to you is do YOU think last night's game was a fluke(at least as far as the final score goes) or is USC really that much better than Oklahoma and that they would dominate them no matter when the game was played and how many times they played them?
                          Last edited by savage1; 01-05-2005, 11:13 AM.

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                          • #14
                            savage,

                            Just my opinion I feel that if this were a regular season game it would have been much closer. I feel that USC would still win but at a much closer clip. USC could have won that game easily by 10-14pts if you take away a couple turnovers and that idiot punt returner who cost OU the ball. I figured a close game and USC would win by 3-7pts. USC was clearly the faster and smarter team.
                            2013 NCAA POD Record

                            8-3ATS +3.80 units

                            2013 NFL POD Record

                            1-2 ATS -4.50 units

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Please guys

                              How about some cheese with all this whinning guys. You all got taken by the hype of these games. I couldn't find anyone who liked USC last night or V-Tech the night before. The guy who responded earlier in the post was right about seeing who your friends and comp picks and even these so called services are on or like and double up and go the other way. You'd be surprised at how often you come out ahead of it all. I'm in South Florida so I don't no about California money or Mid West money but down here it was Oklahoma baby all the way can't lose no way send it in with both hands. Result: USC & V-tech got the money, late touchdown for V-Tech or not the ticket cashed and so did I. SHOW ME THE MONEY!!


                              P.S. works in hoops too

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