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can wayne or someone post the analysis for OU/USC on ESPN Insider? Thanks
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Both teams have running backs who have scored 15 touchdowns (USC's Reggie Bush and LenDale White and Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson). And few head coaches in college football are better at managing games and getting their players ready to play than Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops.
With the Trojans and Sooners both ranked in the top 5 nationally in run defense, the pressure will be on Leinart and White to shoulder the offensive load. White has a more established receiving corps to work with, led by veterans Mark Clayton, Travis Wilson and Brandon Jones. The trio has combined for 1,788 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Leinart has an emerging young star in freshman WR Dwayne Jarrett, and a lot more versatility with Bush accounting for 478 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. TEs Alex Holmes and Dominique Byrd have combined for another 770 yards through the air.
Key individual matchups
1. USC WR Dwayne Jarrett vs. Oklahoma CB Antonio Perkins
Jarrett is a freshman who improved throughout the season. He had his breakout game versus Arizona State, with 139 receiving yards, and has clearly developed into Leinart's favorite target at the wide receiver position. Jarrett (6-5, 195 pounds) isn't overly physical and is still growing into his frame, but he is agile and athletic.
Perkins could have his hands full in this matchup. He's an experienced senior with adequate size, but he missed four games due to a knee injury and hasn't been tested by a receiver of Jarrett's skill level since returning to the lineup. Look for the Trojans to work on Perkins early, to see if he can hold up. Because of Jarrett's significant size advantage, Leinart is certain to throw some jump balls on vertical sideline routes.
2. Oklahoma WR Mark Clayton vs. USC CB Justin Wyatt
Wyatt has emerged as USC's best cover corner, but he's still below average in man-to-man coverage situations. He doesn't have the fluidness, speed or recognition skills to be consistently left alone versus Clayton, who is one of the nation's most dynamic receivers. Clayton finished the regular season with 62 receptions for 855 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Trojans often play Wyatt off the line in order to give him a cushion, but they can't afford to give Clayton, one of college football's biggest after-the-catch threats, too much room. Look for the Sooners to target this matchup early on. If they can get White and Clayton on the same page early, it will force the Trojans to give Wyatt more safety help over the top. This will open up more room for White's other receivers and Peterson on the ground.
The Trojans' secondary could have its hands full against the Sooners' talented WRs.
3. Oklahoma ROG Davin Joseph vs. USC DT Shaun Cody
This shapes up as the best individual matchup in the trenches. Joseph has enjoyed a breakout season as a junior and there are even rumblings of him leaving early for the NFL. He has a very good combination of size and quickness, and has developed into an efficient all-around blocker. Joseph will be aided by the OU's zone-blocking scheme, which allows him to block an area instead of Cody on every single down.
When these two face off, Joseph will be tested by Cody's outstanding combination of power and athletic ability. If Cody, who finished the regular season with 12 tackles for loss and nine sacks, can use his first-step quickness to consistently beat Joseph off the snap, it will make life difficult for Joseph. Cody could disrupt the timing of both Peterson in the running game and White in the passing game.
When USC has the ball
USC run offense vs. Oklahoma run defense
The Trojans' running attack is versatile. They can run between the tackles with 235-pound RB Lendale White, or they can hand the ball off to the more elusive and explosive Bush.
This matchup will largely depend on what defensive looks the Sooners come out with. Oklahoma ranks fifth nationally in run defense. The Sooners typically play an aggressive scheme that calls for a lot of eight-man fronts, with blitzing linebackers and safeties. If they stay true to coach Stoops' scheme, the Trojans won't have much room to operate. SS Donte Nicholson and FS Brodney Pool are strong versus the run. Pool actually leads the team with 85 total tackles and Nicholson is fourth with 66.
Because of their excellent tackling skills, the Sooners can cheat either safety up to the line of scrimmage, in order to generate a 4-4 look. With Lance Mitchell anchoring the middle and DEs Cody and Jonathan Jackson wreaking havoc on the perimeter, White and Bush won't find much running room. The Sooners' only weakness against the run is at defensive tackle, where they've had to break in two new starters (Lynn McGruder and Carl Pendleton) and have poor depth.
If the Sooners adjust their scheme to play more cover-2, with Nicholson and Pool playing the deep middle halves of the field, USC will need to run between the tackles. The Trojans might surprise people with their ability to gobble up yards behind massive OGs John Drake (350 pounds) and Fred Matua (310 pounds).
Advantage: Oklahoma
USC pass offense vs. Oklahoma pass defense
Cal did the best job of any defense this season of limiting Leinart in the passing game, and did so by using more zone coverage within a cover-2 principle. In doing so, it forced Leinart to make a lot of short throws, while also keeping Bush in check with five defenders (two corners and three linebackers) working the underneath zones. As a result, the Sooners might employ a more conservative defensive scheme.
If the Sooners do opt to use a more conservative scheme, it will likely limit the big plays for Leinart in the passing game. However, it will put a lot of pressure on their front four to generate its own pass rush and their front seven to hold up versus the run.
Oklahoma's aggressive scheme may leave it vulnerable to big plays from Reggie Bush.
If the Sooners elect to stick with their aggressive schemes, the pressure will be on Leinart to consistently beat the blitz. Oklahoma has done a terrific job of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with the blitz. Cody and Jackson have combined for 17 of the team's 38 sacks on the season but 14 different defenders have chipped in with at least one sack. That variety speaks to the aggressiveness of the Sooners' blitz package.
If they continue to take chances, the Sooners might be opening themselves up to a lot of mismatches. Leinart doesn't have great mobility or arm strength, but he's one of the nation's premier quarterbacks when it comes to recognizing and beating the blitz.
With Jarrett giving the Trojans a huge size advantage over Perkins on one side, and Smith back healthy at the "flanker" position, Leinart has the weapons to exploit man-coverage vertically on the perimeter. Also, Bush will become a bigger threat as a receiver, as the blitz will open up zones underneath. Finally, with Holmes and Byrd at the tight end position, Leinart has the weapons he needs to pick apart a Sooners' back seven that has had its fair share of trouble in coverage this season.
Advantage: USC
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma run offense vs. USC run defense
This is a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Sooners will look to establish Peterson, who is averaging 152.8 rushing yards per contest, against a USC run defense that ranks second in the nation, allowing just 75.3 yards per game. The Sooners use mostly zone-blocking schemes in their running attack and do a good job of getting Peterson moving straight ahead.
Oklahoma has two outstanding run-blocking tackles in LOT Wes Sims and ROT Jammal Brown, but the unit lacks of size in the middle. OC Vince Carter (294 pounds) and LOG Chris Bush (284 pounds) will have problems against one of the nation's best DT tandems in Shaun Cody and Mike Patterson.
If Cody and Patterson can use their initial quickness and power to disrupt the Sooners' zone-blocking scheme, Peterson won't be nearly as effective in this game as he was throughout the regular season. The Trojans are undersized at linebacker, but MLB Lofa Tatupu and WLB Matt Grootegoed are instinctive, active and tough.
If Cody and Patterson can keep blockers off Tatupu and Grootegoed, it will allow them to prevent Peterson from turning the corner as an outside runner. As good as the Sooners have been at establishing the run this season, USC's combination of size and quickness in the middle, and athleticism at linebacker, should present Peterson with one of his toughest challenges to date.
Advantage: USC
Oklahoma pass offense vs. USC pass defense
The Trojans' pass defense is excellent down the middle. It gets consistent pressure from DTs Cody and Patterson, who have combined for 15 sacks on the season. It has excellent athleticism at the linebacker position with Grootegoed and Tatupu, who have combined for seven interceptions this season. It also has reliable playmakers at safety with Jason Leach and Darnell Bing.
The question is how well the Trojans will hold up on the perimeter. For starters, they don't have the athletes at defensive end to get consistent pressure off the edges against OTs Brown and Sims. Frostee Rucker and Lawrence Jackson have improved as the season has progressed, but neither is an elite perimeter pass rusher.
USC's tenacious run defense will present Adrian Peterson with his toughest challenge to date.
If the Trojans sit back in coverage, it will give White the time he needs to spray the ball around the field to his deep receiving corps of Clayton, Wilson, Jones, Mark Bradley and Will Peoples, who have combined for 170 receptions this season.
If the Trojans go after White with the blitz, they have the linebackers and safeties to hold up down the middle. However, CBs Wyatt, Eric Wright and Kevin Arbet could be exposed for their lack of ideal man-to-man coverage skills. The Trojans will be overwhelmed by the Sooners' spread passing attack. If they can't get to White on a consistent basis and force him out of his rhythm, USC's secondary could be in for a long evening.
Advantage: Oklahoma
Special teams
The Trojans have a slight edge in the kicking game. Ryan Killeen started off slowly, hitting 7 of 16 field goal attempts, but has connected on his last seven tries. Oklahoma's Trey DiCarlo has suffered through a disappointing season as a Lou Groze Award finalist in 2003. He connected on just 8 of 16 attempts during the regular season, which is why coach Stoops elected to use freshman PK Garrett Hartley in the Orange Bowl.
The Trojans have an advantage in the return game. The Sooners have had a disappointing season in this area, as they rank 61st nationally in punt returns and 84th on kickoff returns. They have explosive potential with Clayton (14.4 ypr average with a 50-yard TD) returning punts. We also could see Antonio Perkins in that role, now that he's had extra time for his knee injury to heal.
However, the Sooners have been inconsistent returning punts and flat-out unexciting handling kickoff returns. With Tom Malone, who is averaging 43.8 yards per attempt, handling the punting duties for USC, the Sooners aren't likely to get many opportunities for big plays in the return game.
Bush is the primary reason for concern when it comes to the Trojans' return game. The versatile sophomore is averaging 16 yards per punt return, with two touchdowns, and 26.4 yards per kickoff return. Oklahoma PT Blake Ferguson and his coverage teams have been excellent, as the Sooners rank 10th in the nation in net punting (39.1). Regardless, kicking to Bush might be a mistake.
Advantage: USC
Bottom line
There isn't much that separates these two teams. They both have dynamic offenses, led by two of the nation's elite signal-callers, and both have stout run defenses. The two differences are Bush's versatility and USC's slight edge in the front seven. Look for the Trojans to keep Peterson in check and generate pressure on White. Oklahoma will get some big plays on the perimeter because of their athletic advantage at wide receiver, but the Trojans will get enough big plays from their pass rush and linebackers and safeties in coverage.
USC might struggle to establish the run, but Bush gives Leinart the ultimate weapon when it comes to beating the blitz. His explosiveness in the return game will also play a key role. In the end it, will come down to Leinart and Bush providing the Trojans with more big plays than White and Peterson can offer on their side of the ball.
Prediction: USC 27, Oklahoma 23Comment
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