Announcement

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:21 AM

Music City Bowl Dec 31st, Nashville
There have been 16 bowls played already, but no SEC teams; now they'll be in six of last twelve on schedule, as Alabama is first one to play. This is first bowl in three yrs for Tide, who started out 3-0, lost their QB for season with knee injury, and stumbled home 6-5, losing three of last four games. Under is 6-2 in last eight Bama games, as Tide plays good defense, but struggles with ball- they were 4-2 as favorite this season.

Minnesota runs ball well, but has first-year QB; they got out of gates 5-0, then won just once in last six games, as they allowed 32.3 ppg during three-game losing streak at end of regular season. Gophers were plus-14 turnovers the first eight games, minus-6 in their last three, one of which was a loss at struggling Indiana. This is fifth bowl in six years for Mason; they won last two, with average total in last four bowls, 54.

SEC teams are 1-5 in this bowl, played in Vandy's town with Auburn last year the first SEC team to win. One of the six totals was over 45, as losing side topped 16 just once. Minnesota won this game two years ago, beating Arkansas 29-14, as 7.5-point underdog.

Sun Bowl Dec 31st, El Paso
Arizona State QB Walter hurt his shoulder in last game of seasoin, losss vs rival Arizona, so now soph Kellier is on hotseat in offense that depends heavily on QB. Sun Devils started out 5-0, then got hammered by USC and Cal in three-week span, and never seemed to recover; they allowed 33.7 ppg in last six games, and were -9 in turnovers in their three losses.

Purdue also started season 5-0, then blew that game vs Wisconsin, when Orton fumbled into a defensive TD in last 3:00 of game, sending Boilers on 4-game losing streak that didn't end until they beat Ohio State in mid-November. Purdue had five-game stretch where they were minus-11 in turnovers. They only picked off eight passes all season.

Underdog covered last nine Sun Bowls, winning six SU, as four of last five were decided by six or less points. Last three totals had average of 59.7. Arizona State won this game seven years ago, 17-7, as 6.5-point dog over Iowa, their only win in last five bowls. Purdue won this game two years ago, 34-24 over Washington, their only win in their last five bowls, as a three-point dog.

Liberty Bowl Dec 31st, Memphis
Undefeated Boise State was quite average on road, with 47-31 win over UTEP, 45-42 over Tulsa, 56-49 in OT over San Jose team that fired its coach, adn then 58-21 pasting of Nevada. Broncos much more at home on blue carpet, but they've also won their last four bowls, scoring 35 ppg, with average total of 60.3. Three of those four were in Boise, but their 11-0 record does merit respect.

Louisville is 10-1, with only loss 41-38 at Miami, when they led 24-7 at half, and their QB got hurt in the second half; this is an excellent team that covered eight of 10 as favorite this year, and has already won here this year, 56-49 over Memphis back on Nov. 2. Only problem for Cardinals is that Petrino always interviews for SEC jobs, last year Auburn, this year LSU. Is that a distraction?

Total of 82 is too high for bowl whose totals the last five years were 40-39-38-20-17. Conference USA teams are 5-2 in last seven years in this bowl, played on home field of Memphis. Dogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine Liberty Bowls. Temps for this game expected to be near 70, with very little chance of precipitation.

Peach Bowl Dec 31st, Atlanta
Maybe best bowl matchup is Florida-Miami; teams met last year, with former Gator Berlin leading late charge to beat Florida, 38-33. Florida waiting for Urban Renewal to begin, as Coach Meyer headed to Gainesville after the Utah bowl game, so defensive coordinator Strong is the interim coach here, as Zook has moved on to Illinois. Florida was 2-0-1 as dog this year; they were 3-0 in November, allowing just 13.7 ppg.

Miami stumbled down stretch, going 2-3 in last five tilts, and losing their last two home games. 'canes are 6-1 in their last seven bowls, and covered five of last six as a bowl favorite. Tehy beat Florida 37-20 in Sugar Bowl four years ago. Gators are 1-4 in last five bowls, giving up 34.4 ppg; they covered one of last five as bowl dog.

Underdogs are 4-2 SU in last six Peach Bowls, played indoors in Atlanta; four of last five were won by 10+ points, with losing side averaging just 9.6 ppg in last five. Seven of last eight bowl totals were 51 or less.

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:23 AM

Friday, December 31, 2004

Minnesota(+3) vs. Alabama [Music City Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Alabama 24 Minnesota 23
Statistical Projections

Minnesota 25

Rushing Yards: 203
Passing Yards: 157
Turnovers: 1 Alabama 19

Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 133
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Minnesota 31 Alabama 9
Minnesota (2 stars)

Arizona State(+7½) vs. Purdue [Sun Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Purdue 29 Arizona State 23
Statistical Projections

Arizona State 26

Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 307
Turnovers: 1 Purdue 30

Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 309
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Purdue 29 Arizona State 23

Boise State(+13) vs. Louisville [Liberty Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Louisville 39 Boise State 32
Statistical Projections

Boise State 29

Rushing Yards: 185
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 2 Louisville 37

Rushing Yards: 189
Passing Yards: 270
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Louisville 53 Boise State 30
Louisville (1 star)

Florida(+3) vs. Miami-Florida [Peach Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Miami-Florida 30 Florida 22
Statistical Projections

Florida 27

Rushing Yards: 187
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 2 Miami-Florida 27

Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 231
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Miami-Florida 35 Florida 16
Miami-Florida (1 star)

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:25 AM

MINNESOTA (6 - 5) vs. ALABAMA (6 - 5) - 12/31/2004, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA ST (8 - 3) vs. PURDUE (7 - 4) - 12/31/2004, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) against Big 10 conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOISE ST (11 - 0) vs. LOUISVILLE (10 - 1) - 12/31/2004, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
LOUISVILLE is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
LOUISVILLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
LOUISVILLE is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
BOISE ST is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BOISE ST is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
BOISE ST is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (7 - 4) vs. MIAMI (8 - 3) - 12/31/2004, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:28 AM

MUSIC CITY BOWL:
ALABAMA (-4, O/U: 48.5) vs. MINNESOTA:
Auburn's win over Wisconsin last year snapped a five game SU & ATS losing skid for the SEC in this bowl series. The UNDER has cashed in the last three games.

SUN BOWL:
PURDUE (-7, O/U: 55.5) vs. ARIZONA ST:
The Sun Bowl could legitimately be renamed the underdog bowl, as the dog has compiled a mark of 6-3 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in the last NINE games!

LIBERTY BOWL:
LOUISVILLE (-14, O/U: 83) vs. BOISE ST:
The Liberty Bowl has been one of the lowest scoring bowl games over the past decade. Offenses have been hampered by cold weather, and consequently, this game has gone UNDER in 11 of the last 12!

PEACH BOWL:
MIAMI (-2.5, O/U: 52) vs. FLORIDA:
The favorite is just 2-8-1 ATS since '92 in the Peach Bowl, and the designated "home" team has lost the last five. Also, the representative of the ACC has gone 3-0 SU & ATS in the last three years.

**Black-Cat** · 12-31-2004, 09:33 AM

Additional Info on the early game

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to "wise guy's" selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a "read" on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring MINNESOTA in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MINNESOTA games 51.8% of the time since 1992. (59-55)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MINNESOTA games 53.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-14)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ALABAMA games 48.5% of the time since 1992. (66-70)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ALABAMA games 54.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-16)
No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 54.2% of the time since 1992. (26-22)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 57.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (12-9)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ALABAMA games 46.2% of the time since 1992. (36-42)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ALABAMA games 34.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (8-15)

Ps. Happy New Year Spark!

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:33 AM

CBB

Youngstown and Duquesne are both struggling this yr, as Dukes just lost by 11 to Robert Morris, while YSU lost at home in four OT's to 2-9 Siena. which played game without its best player.

BYU won at Santa Clara last year, 68-66. Broncos off of horrible Cable Car Classic, where they lost to Yale and Central Connecticut. BYU struggling, but they did win last two games, over Weber State, Southern Utah

Home side won five of last six Cal-Washington games, with Bears splitting last four visits to this site, but that was before Huskies became top 20 team, which they are now, having beat NC State here two weeks ago.

Providence is 1-1 on road, losing by 18 at Gainesville, then beating dysfunctional Memphis team on ESPN. San Diego State struggling, llsing five of their last six games, including two WCC losses, vs LMU, St Mary

South Alabama lost 90-75 at UAB last year, third loss in row to Blazers, who used to be Sun Belt rival many years ago. is 2-2 on road, beating Clemson, Marshall, losing to Oklahoma State and Richmond.

St Joe's lost to Bucknell Tuesday, their third loss in a row now they go to play Ohio State club that is 6-0 at home, and also has win over Texas Tech in Dallas. Hawks are 0-3 on road this year, losing by 40-26-4.

Rutgers lost 53-40 at Princeton 23 days ago, now they play Air Force team that does same exact thing, as the Princeton coach coached Flyboys last couple years. Rutgers 5-3; this is their last game before conference opener vs Pitt in eight days.

Villanova is 4-2 in last six games vs Penn, , with only one of the four wins by more than 11 points. Penn has stabilized after pair of early beatings by Providence, Wisconsin, but this is their first game in over 3 weeks.

Creighton pounded San Diego last year, 79-44; they just had good home league win over improved Bradley and Bluejays 2-1 on road, with three games decided by total of five points. San Diego just had good win at Wyoming Tuesday night.

Students aren't around, which hurts huge home court edge at Mac Court; USC lost last three visits to this site by 5-13-4 points, as Ducks are 6-2 in last eight series games. Trojans are 4-1 under Saia, but they are stepping up in class, as opposed to his four victims.

UCLA lost in Corvallis last year for first time in five years; they're 9-3 in last dozen series games, but they lost only road game, albeit at Michigan State. Beavers had some injury issues in December; they're 7-3, 3-0 at cozy Gill Coliseum.

Stanford is 13-0 vs Washington State last six years, as they won last six visits to Paloose, but last two were by bucket each. Cardinal is 2-4 away from Farm this yr, with loss at Santa Clara. Dick Bennett is 5-3 this year but he did lose game 81-29 at Oklahoma State.

Evansville lost last three visits to Wichita by 17-5-24 points, but Aces are better this year, with 7-2 record, and win over Creighton; their two losses are by 5 at Eastern Illinois, by single point to struggling Purdue.

Saint Louis beat Iowa last year in NIT game played at St Charles, MO, as all gyms were tied up; game was 70-69, Billikens, but that was last year. SLU is horrible so far this season, while Iowa on roll with just one loss.

Illinois pounded on Cincinnati in second round NCAA game last March, 92-68; both sides are unbeaten here and meet in Vegas, where they've fed on lesser clubs Northwestern State and Longwood during week. This is very dangerous spot for Illini, as Bearcats holding most foes to 32% or less from the floor.

Princeton their last game vs Loyola, 74-59.

Wofford might as well join the SEC; they've played half the league, beating Auburn; they haven't beaten So Carolina in last five tries, losing by 11-26-15-14-49 points. Terriers are 7-3, with no losses by more than six points; they're an improved team.

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:34 AM

NBA

Friday's games
Game of the Day:
76ers @ Nuggets-- Denver lost last six games, mainly because Carmelo, K-Mart hurt, so well-orchestrated firing of Bzdelik happened, and now Michael Coope is the new coach, as was planned all along. 76ers beat Denver 110-102 in Philly 17 days ago, depsite being down ten at half. Sixers won their last three games, all on road, scoring 109.7 ppg.

Elsewhere, Wizards won first meeting of year vs Boston by 5 in OT back on Nov. 17, despite shooting 37%, but Wiz lost last two visits to this site by 11,4 points. In last game, Wiz led Pistons by 17 at half, but lost by hoop.

Bobcats had two guys out with flu Wednesday, as they lost by 3 to Indiana; they're 0-3 since Christmas, scoring 77 ppg. Seattle won yesterday afternoon in Atlanta; they are 4-1 vs spread if they played the day before.

Kings won three of four vs Jazz last year, winning both games at this site, by 8,7 points; average total in the four games was 201.8. Utah is 0-4 as home underdog; they lost three in row and six of their last seven games.

Clippers got second win in last nine games vs sliding Jazz Wednesday, now they face Spur club that pounded on Portland last night, and is 7-2 vs spread if they played the night before. Spurs won three of four vs Clippers last year, with average total in four games, 185.

Bucks hammered Houston 115-87 Tuesday night, as the Rockets trailed 60-41 at half, allowing Milwaukee 53% shooting from floor. Average total in last three games in series is 204. Houston is 3-9-1 as home favorite this yr.

**Black-Cat** · 12-31-2004, 09:35 AM

Music City Bowl - Adelphia Coliseum - Nashville, TN

MINNESOTA (6 - 5) vs. ALABAMA (6 - 5)
Week 15 Friday, 12/31/2004 12:00 PM
Music City Bowl - Adelphia Coliseum - Nashville, TN

Starters and Lettermen returning for the 2004 season:
Team Coach Offensive Defensive Lettermen
MINNESOTA Glen Mason 7 7 33

Team Coach Offensive Defensive Lettermen
ALABAMA Mike Shula 6 7 38

Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating
Estimate Edge
MINNESOTA
ALABAMA -2

**Spark** · 12-31-2004, 09:35 AM

NBA Trends

Friday, December 31st

Washington (208.5) at Boston (-4), 3:05 ET
Washington - 10-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more pts. in a loss
Boston - 2-15 ATS Home after Away Loss

Seattle (-6.5) at Charlotte (195), 7:05 ET
Seattle - 14-5 ATS Away vs. teams forcing 16+ TO's/Game
Charlotte - 9-3 Over at Home

Sacramento (-4.5) at Utah (194), 8:05 ET
Sacramento - 8-0 ATS away vs. Utah
Utah - 52-27 Under after playing as a road underdog

Philadelphia () at Denver (), 8:05 ET
Philadelphia - 2-12 ATS after winning as a Road Underdog
Denver - 8-5 ATS after outshooting opponent in a loss

San Antonio (-7) at LA Clippers (179.5), 9:35 ET
San Antonio - 19-5 ATS on road with no rest vs. rested foe
LA Clippers - 0-6 ATS when opponent is playing 2nd of back-to-back away

Milwaukee (188.5) at Houston (-7.5), 10:05 ET
Milwaukee - 9-4 ATS after win with <10 TO's
Houston - 4-7 ATS after win with <10 TO's

**Denotes Time Change

**Black-Cat** · 12-31-2004, 09:38 AM

Alabama (6-5) at Minnesota (6-5) December 31
Music City Bowl 12:00 pm EST
------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Ticker) -- Two teams that struggled down the stretch meet in the Music City Bowl when Minnesota takes on Alabama.

The Golden Gophers (6-5) started out 5-0 before blowing a late lead at Michigan on October 9. Starting with that 27-24 defeat, Minnesota lost five of its final six games, including a 29-27 home setback to Iowa in its regular-season finale on November
13.

Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney again were bright spots for the Gophers and became the first pair of teammates to each run for 1,000 in back-to-back seasons.

Including a 29-14 win over Arkansas here two years ago,
Minnesota is playing in its fifth bowl in its six years under
Glen Mason, who is 50-45 in that span. His 36 wins since 2000
represent the best five-year win total at Minnesota since
1903-07.

Alabama (6-5) dropped three of its final four contests and five
of its final eight in its second season under Mike Shula,
including a 21-13 home setback to Auburn on November 20.

The Crimson Tide lead all Division I teams in bowl appearances
(52) and bowl wins (29), but they have not played in the
postseason since a 14-13 victory over Iowa State in the 2001
Independence Bowl.

Alabama led the nation in passing defense (116.5) but ranked
112th in passing offense (132.4). Minnesota is 112th in passing defense (268.09).

Alabama's only other Music City Bowl experience was not a
positive one. The Crimson Tide were blown out by Virginia Tech in 1998, 38-7.

The teams are meeting for the first time.

Announcement

Trends... Friday

Trends... Friday

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment