Tuesday Play$$$!!!!

[rented mule]

Why not just pass on the game?

[RJeremy]

Why not just pass on the game?

That's the best thing I"ve heard all day!! LOL.

I can't pass on it. It's BOWL SEASON!!!! I love betting the bowls, I wait all year for this, and I really just love it!

I just need to stick with what I originally liked and ride it out!

Miami OH is up 13-10 and not looking bad!

[RJeremy]

Think ur on right side for today's bowls . GL

I hoped that u would come back with more ncaab ....

Embrace the POWER .....

GL rj

I'm taking Richmond -2 1/2
and W. Mich. -15

I took Butler and UTEP (big) but didn't post either of them. I wanted to post more but had to go out to dinner and didn't get time.

[Ldawg]

Crap we should of won w/miami -o ... they should of ran up in the stands and drafted a QB ... that guy sucked !! CSer

rj - don't go out to dinner on Tues. nights ...we need ya here at BC ....

[surveyor]

Trying to understand how you can keep switching sides on a game. First you bet a 3* on Miami then changed it to 5* on Iowa st. then back to a unrated play on Miami of ohio. Your local lets you keep switching plays without eating alot of jiuce?
Not trying to be a bitch just wondering. I do not have a local and bet offshore. I change bets I eat juice. What was your final tally on that game?

[surveyor]

Nice call on dallas!

[phonepole]

Youuu've got mail!

[RJeremy]

Trying to understand how you can keep switching sides on a game. First you bet a 3* on Miami then changed it to 5* on Iowa st. then back to a unrated play on Miami of ohio. Your local lets you keep switching plays without eating alot of jiuce?
Not trying to be a bitch just wondering. I do not have a local and bet offshore. I change bets I eat juice. What was your final tally on that game?

I don't call in to my local until right before kickoff. I kept changing this in my head. I ended up taking Miami OH, but didn't rank it because I only took it for a buck. I was too undecisive on the game to even rank it.

I liked Miami OH all week. Yesterday when I saw the line move 5 points towards ISU, and 52% of public on Miami OH, I knew something was wrong. I give a lot of consideration on line movement, and 9 times out of 10 I would have changed that to ISU. It's not always black and white in betting. I had chosen the wrong side, but could've chose the right one by watching the line move like that.

I don't think it was a bad bet no matter who you took. Either team could've won that game.

Hope this explains it a little for you.

[FunkMonk]

So RJ,

Do you actually handicap games with statistics and compile and crunch numbers, or do you mainly go with gut feels, betting trends, public leanings, and line moves?

[RJeremy]

So RJ,

Do you actually handicap games with statistics and compile and crunch numbers, or do you mainly go with gut feels, betting trends, public leanings, and line moves?

I actually do both. I first crunch all the numbers...offense, defense, records, home field, avg. scoring, player injuries, coaching, conference, past results of teams playing each other, etc., etc. Then I take the games that I really like and see who the public is on, and take a long look at line movements and if they make sense or not. Then I make my final plays out of all those. The line movements are the only thing that might make me change my bet late in the day.

Hope this helps.

[FunkMonk]

RJ-

What worries me about this system, RJ is that you do sophisticated and (by your record) proven statistical analysis to handicap a game and then you let the public (who is not as sophisticated) change your mind. To me that is kind of like spending weeks and weeks on the internet picking the right car out based on engine performance, safety features, ratings, speed trials, etc. then at the last minute letting your little sister pick your car based on color and cup holder size.

You do well, there is no denying, I just don't see letting an ignorant public make the final call after you have put the sweat and time into capping the game.

[RJeremy]

RJ-

What worries me about this system, RJ is that you do sophisticated and (by your record) proven statistical analysis to handicap a game and then you let the public (who is not as sophisticated) change your mind. To me that is kind of like spending weeks and weeks on the internet picking the right car out based on engine performance, safety features, ratings, speed trials, etc. then at the last minute letting your little sister pick your car based on color and cup holder size.

You do well, there is no denying, I just don't see letting an ignorant public make the final call after you have put the sweat and time into capping the game.

Funk,

Very true, and I hear what you're saying. I really don't let the public sway my decision more than where the big money is going and how that is affecting the line compared to the % of the public on one side. It's more of the lines makers and vegas that is swaying me a little bit.

I know some people.....even professional gamblers, that will rely soley on line movements and they do this for a living. It is just a SMALL part of everything I evaluate before making a final decision on a game.