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DOCTOR Z GOY - Ravens/Colts
Ok, so my career 0-2 lifetime posting record doesn’t deserve any respect, but I wanted to write up my thoughts on this game for everyone to ponder.
This is my personal GOY. Here is why:
I know the Ravens. This is my home own team and I do very well in their games. I EXPECT them to win this game – outright.
This was the youngest team in the NFL last year. They had 7 Pro Bowlers, all back this year (except Boulware on IR). This team made the playoffs last year and came into this year expecting to win the division and go deep into the playoffs this year. Under Billick, they play hard and they win. They excel in the ‘world against us’ mentality that Billick Drives. This game is the pinnacle for this. Their entire makeup/bravado is on the line. They expect to make the playoffs. This is the stepping stone.
First game of the season, they ran into a Browns team that stewed all winter over Lewis’ 500 yards against them. The Browns rose up and beat them. It peeved them and they needed to get together and they came back and beat PITT easily. They always pull together under Billick. Next, they played another good game and easily beat Cincy on the road, but had significant injuries…
After that, Ogden missed time, Flynn missed time, Brown missed time. This big veteran offensive line (same group as last year) didn’t get everyone together until last week. Sunday night will be the second time. This is a BIG NASTY offensive line which can pound the ball when they get the attitude (remember 2000 yards for Lewis?). This week, they will have the attitude, they know they have too. Reference the way they pounded the ball in the playoffs on the road in Tenn and Oak 3 years ago (Flynn, Ogden, O Brown). They also kill the fourth quarter when they need to, especially after pounding the whole game. They wear you down – and they are fresh! Indy’s front four is small.
Here are random thoughts/factors that I hope make sense…
Jamal Lewis – he couldn’t run vs. the Browns so focused to stop him. He had a good second week, then got hurt. He came back ok but without his O line. The running game was average in this capacity. Then he served his suspension, and got hurt again. He played last week and looked great on his few carries, bursting with speed and mauling the tacklers. He should be good, even though he says his ankle is sore. You know he’s fresh and eager.
Todd Heap - is back. He is the go to receiver which takes pressure off Lewis. He missed 6 games. He was great last week. Big big weapon. He’s fresh.
Boller is playing the best football of his career. He is making good decisions. He’s not great, but is playing well.
This is a darn good team. Remember, this team went into NE without Ogden, Heap and Lewis (3 Pro Bowlers) and it was 3-3 at the half. They are the only team to beat Pitt. They held their own in a dog fight in Philly despite their injuries. They phoned in the 4th quarter in the game versus the Bengals, when they thought they’d won it and it was over. The penalty for that is they must win this week. They will.
Deion is back. He makes a difference in the secondary which includes Reed, who will be the NFL defensive player of the year. Toss in McCallister, who is one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL when he wants to be. This week, he wants to be. Baxter is solid. Deion, Reed, McCallister vs. Wayne, Stokley (who is questionable) and Harrison. Colts haven’t a secondary this fast.
The 3-4 defense. The Colts haven’t seen it a lot this year. The Ravens will attack and blitz, they will not sit back. The Ravens have only allowed 1 TD pass of more than 20 yards this year. Fewest in the NFL. Avg QB rating vs Ravens, 65. Lowest in the NFL. They’ve played some dogs, but they’ve also played Phi, NE, KC, Dallas, Pitt and Garcia and Carson Palmer twice. They allow 16 points per game, fourth fewest in the NFL. They also SCORE 3.3 points per game (6 tds). The passing record that gets set might be Reed’s for most interception return yards in a season (he needs 33).
Speed – this defense is FAST! That’s on grass. Wait till they hit the turf. Reference a similar game in St Louis 3 years ago on Sunday as a double digit dog. They shut down the Rams all night long and had the lead when Boller got hurt and Redman came in and started fumbling snaps and handoffs. Last game of his Ravens career. That was one of the best defensive games I’ve seen. Lightning on turf!
Matchups - Ray Lewis is a defensive Peyton Manning. He knows the game and how to call defense like Manning calls offense. Freeley, Indy’s best pass rusher, matches up to Ogden, who yields about a sack a year. Last game they played, Ogden shut him out. Kickers are even at worst complarison, Vanderjadt (colts kicker) is good, Stover (Ravens kicker) hasn’t missed inside the 50 this year. Zastudil (Ravens punter) is back from injury.
Playoff scenario – Ravens are tied with Denver for the last wild card. If the Ravens lose to the Colts and end up tied with Denver, the Ravens likely stay home. If the Ravens beat the Colts and end up tied with Denver, they will go. For the Ravens, who play Pitt on the road the following week, this is a must win.
Line movement. The line opened Colts -9. Sportsinsights has it 62% on the Colts. Yet, the line is down to 7.5. My guess is the wise guys are on the Ravens.
Attitude – Ravens view this as a MUST win. Colts clinched division and need to win out and have Pitt and NE collapse to make this game mean something. They are busy talking about Peyton’s record. The Ravens are focused to take care of business. Read the quotes from Billick and the Ravens. ‘I expect that 11-5 will get us in.’ Note – he EXPECTS to be 11-5. ‘We’re focused we must win the playoffs start now. We’ll need to win on the road in the playoffs – it starts now.’ ‘I expect Jamal to go 35-40 snaps, if he needs to go 60, he will’. ‘He will’ – that says it all – we will do what it takes. This Billick team rallies together when its back is against the wall. It will this week too. The Ravens aren’t talking about anything. They’re preparing. They will pound and maul this finesse Colts team who won’t want to get hurt heading into the playoffs. Remember how these speed finesse offenses (St. Louis, Colts) have done in big games in the recent past when they play teams that run/maul/and play offense (Tenn, Ravens, NE). And in this one, it is only a BIG game on one side of the ball.
Bottom line, I EXPECT the Ravens to flat out win this game. Taking the Ravens and the points, this is my GOY! I personally will be hitting it for my largest amount in my 25 years of wagering – but not so much that I won’t be able to sleep if it goes down. Remember, it is just one game and anything can happen; there are no guarantees. I hope this contributes to this great forum. Good luck.
This is my personal GOY. Here is why:
I know the Ravens. This is my home own team and I do very well in their games. I EXPECT them to win this game – outright.
This was the youngest team in the NFL last year. They had 7 Pro Bowlers, all back this year (except Boulware on IR). This team made the playoffs last year and came into this year expecting to win the division and go deep into the playoffs this year. Under Billick, they play hard and they win. They excel in the ‘world against us’ mentality that Billick Drives. This game is the pinnacle for this. Their entire makeup/bravado is on the line. They expect to make the playoffs. This is the stepping stone.
First game of the season, they ran into a Browns team that stewed all winter over Lewis’ 500 yards against them. The Browns rose up and beat them. It peeved them and they needed to get together and they came back and beat PITT easily. They always pull together under Billick. Next, they played another good game and easily beat Cincy on the road, but had significant injuries…
After that, Ogden missed time, Flynn missed time, Brown missed time. This big veteran offensive line (same group as last year) didn’t get everyone together until last week. Sunday night will be the second time. This is a BIG NASTY offensive line which can pound the ball when they get the attitude (remember 2000 yards for Lewis?). This week, they will have the attitude, they know they have too. Reference the way they pounded the ball in the playoffs on the road in Tenn and Oak 3 years ago (Flynn, Ogden, O Brown). They also kill the fourth quarter when they need to, especially after pounding the whole game. They wear you down – and they are fresh! Indy’s front four is small.
Here are random thoughts/factors that I hope make sense…
Jamal Lewis – he couldn’t run vs. the Browns so focused to stop him. He had a good second week, then got hurt. He came back ok but without his O line. The running game was average in this capacity. Then he served his suspension, and got hurt again. He played last week and looked great on his few carries, bursting with speed and mauling the tacklers. He should be good, even though he says his ankle is sore. You know he’s fresh and eager.
Todd Heap - is back. He is the go to receiver which takes pressure off Lewis. He missed 6 games. He was great last week. Big big weapon. He’s fresh.
Boller is playing the best football of his career. He is making good decisions. He’s not great, but is playing well.
This is a darn good team. Remember, this team went into NE without Ogden, Heap and Lewis (3 Pro Bowlers) and it was 3-3 at the half. They are the only team to beat Pitt. They held their own in a dog fight in Philly despite their injuries. They phoned in the 4th quarter in the game versus the Bengals, when they thought they’d won it and it was over. The penalty for that is they must win this week. They will.
Deion is back. He makes a difference in the secondary which includes Reed, who will be the NFL defensive player of the year. Toss in McCallister, who is one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL when he wants to be. This week, he wants to be. Baxter is solid. Deion, Reed, McCallister vs. Wayne, Stokley (who is questionable) and Harrison. Colts haven’t a secondary this fast.
The 3-4 defense. The Colts haven’t seen it a lot this year. The Ravens will attack and blitz, they will not sit back. The Ravens have only allowed 1 TD pass of more than 20 yards this year. Fewest in the NFL. Avg QB rating vs Ravens, 65. Lowest in the NFL. They’ve played some dogs, but they’ve also played Phi, NE, KC, Dallas, Pitt and Garcia and Carson Palmer twice. They allow 16 points per game, fourth fewest in the NFL. They also SCORE 3.3 points per game (6 tds). The passing record that gets set might be Reed’s for most interception return yards in a season (he needs 33).
Speed – this defense is FAST! That’s on grass. Wait till they hit the turf. Reference a similar game in St Louis 3 years ago on Sunday as a double digit dog. They shut down the Rams all night long and had the lead when Boller got hurt and Redman came in and started fumbling snaps and handoffs. Last game of his Ravens career. That was one of the best defensive games I’ve seen. Lightning on turf!
Matchups - Ray Lewis is a defensive Peyton Manning. He knows the game and how to call defense like Manning calls offense. Freeley, Indy’s best pass rusher, matches up to Ogden, who yields about a sack a year. Last game they played, Ogden shut him out. Kickers are even at worst complarison, Vanderjadt (colts kicker) is good, Stover (Ravens kicker) hasn’t missed inside the 50 this year. Zastudil (Ravens punter) is back from injury.
Playoff scenario – Ravens are tied with Denver for the last wild card. If the Ravens lose to the Colts and end up tied with Denver, the Ravens likely stay home. If the Ravens beat the Colts and end up tied with Denver, they will go. For the Ravens, who play Pitt on the road the following week, this is a must win.
Line movement. The line opened Colts -9. Sportsinsights has it 62% on the Colts. Yet, the line is down to 7.5. My guess is the wise guys are on the Ravens.
Attitude – Ravens view this as a MUST win. Colts clinched division and need to win out and have Pitt and NE collapse to make this game mean something. They are busy talking about Peyton’s record. The Ravens are focused to take care of business. Read the quotes from Billick and the Ravens. ‘I expect that 11-5 will get us in.’ Note – he EXPECTS to be 11-5. ‘We’re focused we must win the playoffs start now. We’ll need to win on the road in the playoffs – it starts now.’ ‘I expect Jamal to go 35-40 snaps, if he needs to go 60, he will’. ‘He will’ – that says it all – we will do what it takes. This Billick team rallies together when its back is against the wall. It will this week too. The Ravens aren’t talking about anything. They’re preparing. They will pound and maul this finesse Colts team who won’t want to get hurt heading into the playoffs. Remember how these speed finesse offenses (St. Louis, Colts) have done in big games in the recent past when they play teams that run/maul/and play offense (Tenn, Ravens, NE). And in this one, it is only a BIG game on one side of the ball.
Bottom line, I EXPECT the Ravens to flat out win this game. Taking the Ravens and the points, this is my GOY! I personally will be hitting it for my largest amount in my 25 years of wagering – but not so much that I won’t be able to sleep if it goes down. Remember, it is just one game and anything can happen; there are no guarantees. I hope this contributes to this great forum. Good luck.
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