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"Wyndham New Orleans Bowl"
By Steve Muench
Scouts, Inc.
The Mean Green will be making their fourth consecutive New Orleans Bowl
appearance, after finishing with a perfect 7-0 league record.
What's remarkable about their return to the Crescent City is that North Texas
made it back despite the season-ending injury to RB Patrick Cobbs, who was the
nation's top rusher last year. Even more remarkable is that Cobb's replacement,
Jamario Thomas, leads the nation in rushing this year as a true freshman.
Southern Miss earned its seventh bowl appearance in the last eight years by
finishing in a four-way tie for second place in Conference USA. Can the Golden
Eagles' run defense find a way to keep Thomas under wraps, or will the Sun
Belt's most explosive player dominate this game from start to finish?
When North Texas has the ball
North Texas run offense vs. USM run defense
Thomas missed the Mean Green's last game against Arkansas State nursing a
hamstring injury, but he should be 100 percent. He is one of the most explosive
backs in the country and his combination of speed, power and elusiveness will
test a Southern Miss run defense that ranks 83rd nationally.
Thomas also benefits from running behind an athletic and experienced offensive
line. This group helped Cobbs and Thomas lead the nation in rushing in
consecutive years. They cleared the way for backup James Mitchell to rush for a
career-high 166 yards and a score against Arkansas State. This is a
run-orientated offense so expect Thomas and Mitchell to combine for somewhere in
the neighborhood of 30 carries.
Southern Miss, which lacks great size up front, may have a hard time holding up
at the point of attack. The Golden Eagles' biggest weakness is at defensive end
where starters Akeem Lockett and LeVon Pears weigh an average of just 240
pounds. With that in mind, look for North Texas to use plenty of double-tight
formations in the hopes of springing Thomas by sealing the corner. If they're
successful, the result could be a couple of long runs for the Mean Green
offense.
Advantage: North Texas
North Texas pass offense vs. USM pass defense
QB Scott Hall will attempt about 20 passes, but the Mean Green passing attack is
based entirely on Hall's ability to deliver the big play. He's been consistent
in that regard, as he has taken advantage of the single-coverage matchups
created by Thomas. It seems likely that trend will continue in the New Orleans
Bowl, as Southern Miss will consistently need to walk SS Darrell Bennett up to
the line of scrimmage.
This will force the Golden Eagles' cornerbacks to hold up on islands and create
plenty of room for TE Andy Blount to work over the middle of the field. Blount
and WR ****** Quinn are both averaging over 15.0 yards per catch and they have
combined for 13 touchdowns this season. If Thomas is successful setting the play
action series, both Blount and Quinn could be in for big days working against
the nation's 95th ranked secondary.
Advantage: North Texas
When Southern Miss has the ball
USM run offense vs. North Texas run defense
The Golden Eagles will need to stop Jamario Thomas.
The normally stingy North Texas run defense hasn't lived up to expectations,
largely because of the team's lack of talent and experience at linebacker. It
failed to make enough plays in pursuit which helped lead to the team allowing an
average of 174.4 rushing yards per game. While this presents Southern Miss with
an opportunity to establish the running game, the Golden Eagles have some
shortcomings of their own that may level the playing field.
RB Anthony Harris is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and hasn't shown much in
terms of burst or vision. He may not be able to exploit the cutback lanes the
Mean Green run defense is sure to provide. In addition, the Southern Miss
passing game has struggled to consistently stretch the field, which will allow
North Texas to bring an eighth defender into the box. This will further limit
Harris' ability to shoulder the load and put even more pressure on QB Dustin
Almond to move the ball against one of the nation's most opportunistic
secondaries.
Advantage: North Texas
USM pass offense vs. North Texas pass defense
North Texas will try to bait Almond into throwing downfield by stacking the line
of scrimmage with eight and nine-man fronts. This means DCs Markeith Knowlton
and Walter Priestly will have to hold up in man coverage on the outside, but
that shouldn't be much of an issue. Knowlton and Priestly have combined for five
interceptions this season. Both possess a tremendous combination of size, speed,
strength and quickness.
Their cover skills are complemented by the presence of FS Jonas Buckles, who has
developed into an absolute ball hawk. In addition, Southern Miss lacks ideal
depth at receiver, which will allow the Mean Green to double Antwon Courington,
the team's big-play threat on the perimeter.
With Knowlton and Buckles figuring to shadow Courington from
sideline-to-sideline and the Golden Eagles lacking a true No. 2 receiver, Almond
has to get his backs and tight ends involved. The problem is Almond is
completing just 51 percent of his passes and may have some trouble moving the
offense.
Advantage: Draw
Special teams
North Texas PK Nick Bazaldua has been efficient connecting on thirteen of his
sixteen field goal attempts. Bazaldua has great range beyond 50 yards. P Brad
Kadlubar has struggled to get quality hangtime on his kicks and is averaging
just 39.6 yards per punt. Quinn handles the punt return duties and has been
solid averaging 10.6 yards per return. His longest return of 85 yards went for a
score. Zach Muzzy returns kickoffs and has yet to provide the big play.
Southern Miss PK Darren McCaleb has been perfect, nailing all 15 of his field
goal attempts, including a long of 45 yards. P Luke Johnson is one of the best
in Conference USA, averaging 41.6 yards per punt. The return game is also in
good shape with John Eubanks pulling double-duty. Eubanks is averaging 29.4
yards per kickoff return, including a long of 97 yards that went for a score. He
also averages 8.3 yards per punt return.
Advantage: Southern Miss
Bottom line
The key to this game will be the play of Thomas. For starters, Southern Miss
lacks ideal size and depth along its defensive line, which will allow North
Texas to dictate the pace of the game. Once the Golden Eagles start to wear down
and are forced to bring an extra defender into the box, Hall should have little
trouble finding his receivers downfield. Southern Miss' secondary is simply
devoid of playmakers. This will allow North Texas to jump out to an early lead
and ultimately force Almond to regularly throw downfield.
Almond, who has been wildly inconsistent, will struggle under these conditions,
especially when you consider the advantages North Texas holds on the perimeter.
Without a complement to Courington, Almond may start to make poor decisions that
result in either turnovers or stalled drives. In the end, Southern Miss just
isn't good enough to overcome these types of mistakes, which means the Mean
Green will win their second New Orleans Bowl.
Prediction: North Texas 27, Southern Miss 26
By Steve Muench
Scouts, Inc.
The Mean Green will be making their fourth consecutive New Orleans Bowl
appearance, after finishing with a perfect 7-0 league record.
What's remarkable about their return to the Crescent City is that North Texas
made it back despite the season-ending injury to RB Patrick Cobbs, who was the
nation's top rusher last year. Even more remarkable is that Cobb's replacement,
Jamario Thomas, leads the nation in rushing this year as a true freshman.
Southern Miss earned its seventh bowl appearance in the last eight years by
finishing in a four-way tie for second place in Conference USA. Can the Golden
Eagles' run defense find a way to keep Thomas under wraps, or will the Sun
Belt's most explosive player dominate this game from start to finish?
When North Texas has the ball
North Texas run offense vs. USM run defense
Thomas missed the Mean Green's last game against Arkansas State nursing a
hamstring injury, but he should be 100 percent. He is one of the most explosive
backs in the country and his combination of speed, power and elusiveness will
test a Southern Miss run defense that ranks 83rd nationally.
Thomas also benefits from running behind an athletic and experienced offensive
line. This group helped Cobbs and Thomas lead the nation in rushing in
consecutive years. They cleared the way for backup James Mitchell to rush for a
career-high 166 yards and a score against Arkansas State. This is a
run-orientated offense so expect Thomas and Mitchell to combine for somewhere in
the neighborhood of 30 carries.
Southern Miss, which lacks great size up front, may have a hard time holding up
at the point of attack. The Golden Eagles' biggest weakness is at defensive end
where starters Akeem Lockett and LeVon Pears weigh an average of just 240
pounds. With that in mind, look for North Texas to use plenty of double-tight
formations in the hopes of springing Thomas by sealing the corner. If they're
successful, the result could be a couple of long runs for the Mean Green
offense.
Advantage: North Texas
North Texas pass offense vs. USM pass defense
QB Scott Hall will attempt about 20 passes, but the Mean Green passing attack is
based entirely on Hall's ability to deliver the big play. He's been consistent
in that regard, as he has taken advantage of the single-coverage matchups
created by Thomas. It seems likely that trend will continue in the New Orleans
Bowl, as Southern Miss will consistently need to walk SS Darrell Bennett up to
the line of scrimmage.
This will force the Golden Eagles' cornerbacks to hold up on islands and create
plenty of room for TE Andy Blount to work over the middle of the field. Blount
and WR ****** Quinn are both averaging over 15.0 yards per catch and they have
combined for 13 touchdowns this season. If Thomas is successful setting the play
action series, both Blount and Quinn could be in for big days working against
the nation's 95th ranked secondary.
Advantage: North Texas
When Southern Miss has the ball
USM run offense vs. North Texas run defense
The Golden Eagles will need to stop Jamario Thomas.
The normally stingy North Texas run defense hasn't lived up to expectations,
largely because of the team's lack of talent and experience at linebacker. It
failed to make enough plays in pursuit which helped lead to the team allowing an
average of 174.4 rushing yards per game. While this presents Southern Miss with
an opportunity to establish the running game, the Golden Eagles have some
shortcomings of their own that may level the playing field.
RB Anthony Harris is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and hasn't shown much in
terms of burst or vision. He may not be able to exploit the cutback lanes the
Mean Green run defense is sure to provide. In addition, the Southern Miss
passing game has struggled to consistently stretch the field, which will allow
North Texas to bring an eighth defender into the box. This will further limit
Harris' ability to shoulder the load and put even more pressure on QB Dustin
Almond to move the ball against one of the nation's most opportunistic
secondaries.
Advantage: North Texas
USM pass offense vs. North Texas pass defense
North Texas will try to bait Almond into throwing downfield by stacking the line
of scrimmage with eight and nine-man fronts. This means DCs Markeith Knowlton
and Walter Priestly will have to hold up in man coverage on the outside, but
that shouldn't be much of an issue. Knowlton and Priestly have combined for five
interceptions this season. Both possess a tremendous combination of size, speed,
strength and quickness.
Their cover skills are complemented by the presence of FS Jonas Buckles, who has
developed into an absolute ball hawk. In addition, Southern Miss lacks ideal
depth at receiver, which will allow the Mean Green to double Antwon Courington,
the team's big-play threat on the perimeter.
With Knowlton and Buckles figuring to shadow Courington from
sideline-to-sideline and the Golden Eagles lacking a true No. 2 receiver, Almond
has to get his backs and tight ends involved. The problem is Almond is
completing just 51 percent of his passes and may have some trouble moving the
offense.
Advantage: Draw
Special teams
North Texas PK Nick Bazaldua has been efficient connecting on thirteen of his
sixteen field goal attempts. Bazaldua has great range beyond 50 yards. P Brad
Kadlubar has struggled to get quality hangtime on his kicks and is averaging
just 39.6 yards per punt. Quinn handles the punt return duties and has been
solid averaging 10.6 yards per return. His longest return of 85 yards went for a
score. Zach Muzzy returns kickoffs and has yet to provide the big play.
Southern Miss PK Darren McCaleb has been perfect, nailing all 15 of his field
goal attempts, including a long of 45 yards. P Luke Johnson is one of the best
in Conference USA, averaging 41.6 yards per punt. The return game is also in
good shape with John Eubanks pulling double-duty. Eubanks is averaging 29.4
yards per kickoff return, including a long of 97 yards that went for a score. He
also averages 8.3 yards per punt return.
Advantage: Southern Miss
Bottom line
The key to this game will be the play of Thomas. For starters, Southern Miss
lacks ideal size and depth along its defensive line, which will allow North
Texas to dictate the pace of the game. Once the Golden Eagles start to wear down
and are forced to bring an extra defender into the box, Hall should have little
trouble finding his receivers downfield. Southern Miss' secondary is simply
devoid of playmakers. This will allow North Texas to jump out to an early lead
and ultimately force Almond to regularly throw downfield.
Almond, who has been wildly inconsistent, will struggle under these conditions,
especially when you consider the advantages North Texas holds on the perimeter.
Without a complement to Courington, Almond may start to make poor decisions that
result in either turnovers or stalled drives. In the end, Southern Miss just
isn't good enough to overcome these types of mistakes, which means the Mean
Green will win their second New Orleans Bowl.
Prediction: North Texas 27, Southern Miss 26
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