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Texans (5-6) @ Jets (8-3)- Jet defense allowed just one TD in 23 drives in last two games, as they won both road games, despite having backup QB's convert just 7 of 29 third down plays- they've not allowed second half point in last two games, and five of last nine. Houston ended three -game loss streak last week, rallying from a 21-3 deficit. Three of last four Texan games went over total.
Bengals (5-6) @ Ravens (7-4)- Baltimore won first meeting 23-9 in Week 3, when they ran ball for 254 yards, had four takeaways (+2) and a 14-yard edge in average starting field position. Ravens covered six of last seven games and are 4-1 vs spread at home, with wins by 17-14-14-20 points. Bengals three of last four games; they've scored 68 first half points in last three games, but are 1-4 as road dogs this season.
Patriots (10-1) @ Browns (3-8)- Any chance of Pats taking it easy on Browns, in wake of Davis firing and five-game Brown skid, is erased by fact that Belichick was fired in this town while back, and you never forget that. Plus, Pats still chasing Pitt for top AFC record; they've won four in row since Steeler debacle, scoring 27.5 ppg and allowing just two TD's on last 34 drives. Browns allowed 196.7 rushing yards per game last three weeks, and failed to cover as dog last week, despite scoring 48 points.
Cardinals (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)- Former Wolverine QB Navarre, a rookie, gets first pro start in Michigan, in act of desperation by coach Green, who is clutching at straws with offense that has one TD on 21 drives since McCown was deposed (why?) as starter. Cardinals are 1-4 on road, winning only at 2-9 Miami; six of their last eight games went over total. Detroit on five-game skid, and they have QB issues too, but had long week to rest from Colt beating on Turkey Day. Lions have two TD's on their last 45 drives.
Titans (4-7) @ Colts (8-3)- Tennessee blew 21-3 lead in loss last week; this is third straight road game, a rarity in NFL now, and historically very tough game to cover. Only two of seven Titan losses have been by more than 10 points, but injuries have taken their toll, and McNair is discouraged enough to mention retirement. Colts won last four games, covered last three, and are off long break; they've score 43.7 ppg in last three games, and have 25 TD's on their last 54 drives.
Vikings (7-4) @ Bears (4-7)- Hutchinson becomes fourth starting QB of year for Bears, with newly-signed George soon to become fifth. Vikings beat Chicago 27-22 in Week 3, averaging 10.3 yards per pass attempt, but less than 100% Moss makes that harder to do. Bears had 146 rushing yards in that game. If Chicago doesn't get points from defense or special teams, they can't win, because offense has one TD on last 42 drives, and that drive came when they were down 41-3 to Colts.
Bills (5-6) @ Dolphins (2-9)- Bills won four of last five games, scoring 75 points in last two weeks; they beat Miami at home 20-13 in Week 6, rallying from 13-7 halftime deficit. First Miami home game since coaching change; Fish won 24-17 in Frisco last week, small margin considering they started four drives in 49er territory, and Niners none in theirs, second game in row Fish didn't have opponent drive start in their territory, after they had 16 in first nine games.
Falcons (9-2) @ Buccaneers (4-7)- Atlanta beat Bucs 24-14 three weeks ago, rushing for 205 yards and holding Griese to 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Tampa won its last three road games; they're 4-2 if they score 19+ points, 0-5 if they don't. Falcons allowed 20+ points in just one of of last three games, and they're also 4-1 on road. Under is 3-0 in last three games for both sides. Bucs are 4-3 with Griese starting. Atlanta is 3-1 on natural grass.
49ers (1-10) @ Rams (5-6)- St Louis in need of win, as they hold on to last playoff spot despite 5-6 record and four losses in last five games; they raced to 24-0 halftime lead at Candlestick, in first meeting this season, then coasted home. Rams allowed 82 points in losing last two games, though, and are minus-9 in turnovers last five games. Hard to lay this many points with underachieving favorite on short work week, but 49ers lost last six games, have allowed 28.7 ppg in three games on carpet and are 6 for 28 on third down last two games.
Panthers (4-7) @ Saints (4-7)- Carolina won last three games, scoring 31 ppg; they've been plus in turnovers five games in row (+10) and had 12 takeaways in last three games. Saints are on the Jim Haslett Death Watch, as his tenure on Bourbon St seems over; they've lost six of last eight games, including brutal loss at rival Falcons last week, when they had ball and 21-17 lead with 3:00 left. In their four games since bye, Saints allowed 150.8 rushing yards per game, and have never been particularly spunky when out of contention.
Chiefs (3-8) @ Raiders (4-7)- Chiefs lost last four games, allowing 30.5 ppg; they've allowed 20 TD's on last 52 drives and are 1-4 on road. With QB Green banged up, offense takes hit, and RB Holmes out as well. Oakland still plugging away, but tough to back losing team coming off national TV win; they've allowed 23+ points in each of last eight games, so this could turn into shootout if Green able to go. Raiders running ball for 149 yards a game in two weeks since bye, bad news for porous Chief defense.
Broncos (7-4) @ Chargers (8-3)- Broncos in dire straits with loss here; they beat Bolts 23-13 in Week 3, but ran ball for just 37 yards and were 2 for 11 on third down. San Diego is 7-1 in eight games since then, covering all eight; they scored 35.5 ppg in last four, with 18 TD's on last 40 drives. Problem is, Denver has always been Marty's nemesis; if he could have beaten them while coach of Browns, he'd be NFL icon by now, with multiple Super Bowl appearances. All five Charger home games went over total.
Giants (5-6) @ Redskins (3-8)- Big Blue sinking fast, with four losses in row, and if Eli thought he had bad week vs Eagles, keep in mind Redskin defense potentially stronger than Birds'. Giants beat Washington 20-14 in Week 2, but were still life-and-death to win, despite forcing seven turnovers (+6). Gibbs obviously doesn't like any of his QB's; in their five post-bye games, Skins were outscored 57-16 in first half, which takes away Portis as second half threat.
Packers (7-4) @ Eagles (10-1)- Fourth-and-26. All Packers had to do to beat Philly in playoffs last year was stop one play, but they didn't, and now they meet again, with Pack traveling on short work week and six-game win streak; they've run ball for 192 yards a game during win streak, despite their RB's being banged up. Eagles allowed no TD's on 22 drives their last three games; they're 5-0 at home, with wins by 14-11-22-5-22 points. Philly is 8-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 at home.
Steelers (10-1) @ Jaguars (6-5)- Jax was driving for game-winning score at Minnesota last week, but Leftwich gave up, sack/fumble/77-yd TD that not only cost Jags game, but cost jag backers cover. Jaguars lost three of last four games but are 3-2 at home, with all five games decided by seven or less points. Pitt still step ahead of Patriots in race for home field; they've allowed just five TD's on 53 drives since their bye. Jags are 5-3 as dog, but have just five TD's on last 44 drives, despite running for 181.3 yards per game last three weeks.
Cowboys (4-7) @ Seahawks (6-5)- Seahawks 1-5 if they allow 23+ points, 5-0 if they don't; as bad as they looked last week (outgained 434-230 in home loss to Bills), doubt Dallas (7 TD's on last 52 drives, scored 21 or less in ten of 11 games) can light scoreboard that much, even though rookie RB Jones was impressive in Turkey Day win. Over is 7-1 in last eight Seattle games, 5-2 in last seven Cowboy contests. Dallas is 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-21-23-20 points.
Bengals (5-6) @ Ravens (7-4)- Baltimore won first meeting 23-9 in Week 3, when they ran ball for 254 yards, had four takeaways (+2) and a 14-yard edge in average starting field position. Ravens covered six of last seven games and are 4-1 vs spread at home, with wins by 17-14-14-20 points. Bengals three of last four games; they've scored 68 first half points in last three games, but are 1-4 as road dogs this season.
Patriots (10-1) @ Browns (3-8)- Any chance of Pats taking it easy on Browns, in wake of Davis firing and five-game Brown skid, is erased by fact that Belichick was fired in this town while back, and you never forget that. Plus, Pats still chasing Pitt for top AFC record; they've won four in row since Steeler debacle, scoring 27.5 ppg and allowing just two TD's on last 34 drives. Browns allowed 196.7 rushing yards per game last three weeks, and failed to cover as dog last week, despite scoring 48 points.
Cardinals (4-7) @ Lions (4-7)- Former Wolverine QB Navarre, a rookie, gets first pro start in Michigan, in act of desperation by coach Green, who is clutching at straws with offense that has one TD on 21 drives since McCown was deposed (why?) as starter. Cardinals are 1-4 on road, winning only at 2-9 Miami; six of their last eight games went over total. Detroit on five-game skid, and they have QB issues too, but had long week to rest from Colt beating on Turkey Day. Lions have two TD's on their last 45 drives.
Titans (4-7) @ Colts (8-3)- Tennessee blew 21-3 lead in loss last week; this is third straight road game, a rarity in NFL now, and historically very tough game to cover. Only two of seven Titan losses have been by more than 10 points, but injuries have taken their toll, and McNair is discouraged enough to mention retirement. Colts won last four games, covered last three, and are off long break; they've score 43.7 ppg in last three games, and have 25 TD's on their last 54 drives.
Vikings (7-4) @ Bears (4-7)- Hutchinson becomes fourth starting QB of year for Bears, with newly-signed George soon to become fifth. Vikings beat Chicago 27-22 in Week 3, averaging 10.3 yards per pass attempt, but less than 100% Moss makes that harder to do. Bears had 146 rushing yards in that game. If Chicago doesn't get points from defense or special teams, they can't win, because offense has one TD on last 42 drives, and that drive came when they were down 41-3 to Colts.
Bills (5-6) @ Dolphins (2-9)- Bills won four of last five games, scoring 75 points in last two weeks; they beat Miami at home 20-13 in Week 6, rallying from 13-7 halftime deficit. First Miami home game since coaching change; Fish won 24-17 in Frisco last week, small margin considering they started four drives in 49er territory, and Niners none in theirs, second game in row Fish didn't have opponent drive start in their territory, after they had 16 in first nine games.
Falcons (9-2) @ Buccaneers (4-7)- Atlanta beat Bucs 24-14 three weeks ago, rushing for 205 yards and holding Griese to 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Tampa won its last three road games; they're 4-2 if they score 19+ points, 0-5 if they don't. Falcons allowed 20+ points in just one of of last three games, and they're also 4-1 on road. Under is 3-0 in last three games for both sides. Bucs are 4-3 with Griese starting. Atlanta is 3-1 on natural grass.
49ers (1-10) @ Rams (5-6)- St Louis in need of win, as they hold on to last playoff spot despite 5-6 record and four losses in last five games; they raced to 24-0 halftime lead at Candlestick, in first meeting this season, then coasted home. Rams allowed 82 points in losing last two games, though, and are minus-9 in turnovers last five games. Hard to lay this many points with underachieving favorite on short work week, but 49ers lost last six games, have allowed 28.7 ppg in three games on carpet and are 6 for 28 on third down last two games.
Panthers (4-7) @ Saints (4-7)- Carolina won last three games, scoring 31 ppg; they've been plus in turnovers five games in row (+10) and had 12 takeaways in last three games. Saints are on the Jim Haslett Death Watch, as his tenure on Bourbon St seems over; they've lost six of last eight games, including brutal loss at rival Falcons last week, when they had ball and 21-17 lead with 3:00 left. In their four games since bye, Saints allowed 150.8 rushing yards per game, and have never been particularly spunky when out of contention.
Chiefs (3-8) @ Raiders (4-7)- Chiefs lost last four games, allowing 30.5 ppg; they've allowed 20 TD's on last 52 drives and are 1-4 on road. With QB Green banged up, offense takes hit, and RB Holmes out as well. Oakland still plugging away, but tough to back losing team coming off national TV win; they've allowed 23+ points in each of last eight games, so this could turn into shootout if Green able to go. Raiders running ball for 149 yards a game in two weeks since bye, bad news for porous Chief defense.
Broncos (7-4) @ Chargers (8-3)- Broncos in dire straits with loss here; they beat Bolts 23-13 in Week 3, but ran ball for just 37 yards and were 2 for 11 on third down. San Diego is 7-1 in eight games since then, covering all eight; they scored 35.5 ppg in last four, with 18 TD's on last 40 drives. Problem is, Denver has always been Marty's nemesis; if he could have beaten them while coach of Browns, he'd be NFL icon by now, with multiple Super Bowl appearances. All five Charger home games went over total.
Giants (5-6) @ Redskins (3-8)- Big Blue sinking fast, with four losses in row, and if Eli thought he had bad week vs Eagles, keep in mind Redskin defense potentially stronger than Birds'. Giants beat Washington 20-14 in Week 2, but were still life-and-death to win, despite forcing seven turnovers (+6). Gibbs obviously doesn't like any of his QB's; in their five post-bye games, Skins were outscored 57-16 in first half, which takes away Portis as second half threat.
Packers (7-4) @ Eagles (10-1)- Fourth-and-26. All Packers had to do to beat Philly in playoffs last year was stop one play, but they didn't, and now they meet again, with Pack traveling on short work week and six-game win streak; they've run ball for 192 yards a game during win streak, despite their RB's being banged up. Eagles allowed no TD's on 22 drives their last three games; they're 5-0 at home, with wins by 14-11-22-5-22 points. Philly is 8-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 at home.
Steelers (10-1) @ Jaguars (6-5)- Jax was driving for game-winning score at Minnesota last week, but Leftwich gave up, sack/fumble/77-yd TD that not only cost Jags game, but cost jag backers cover. Jaguars lost three of last four games but are 3-2 at home, with all five games decided by seven or less points. Pitt still step ahead of Patriots in race for home field; they've allowed just five TD's on 53 drives since their bye. Jags are 5-3 as dog, but have just five TD's on last 44 drives, despite running for 181.3 yards per game last three weeks.
Cowboys (4-7) @ Seahawks (6-5)- Seahawks 1-5 if they allow 23+ points, 5-0 if they don't; as bad as they looked last week (outgained 434-230 in home loss to Bills), doubt Dallas (7 TD's on last 52 drives, scored 21 or less in ten of 11 games) can light scoreboard that much, even though rookie RB Jones was impressive in Turkey Day win. Over is 7-1 in last eight Seattle games, 5-2 in last seven Cowboy contests. Dallas is 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-21-23-20 points.
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