*Baltimore 20 Dallas 9 - The only way the Ravens can move the ball against the Cowboys is on the ground, and the only way Dallas can move it is through the air. Baltimore was a 27-0 winner the only time the teams have met, in 2000.
*Carolina 19 Arizona 16 - Coming off a big week, in which the Cardinals knocked off the Giants and the Panthers shelled the 49ers, it's Carolina in an upset. The Panthers evened this series at 2-2 with a 20-17 win in Tempe last year.
Denver 35 *New Orleans 12 - Did their win over Houston two weeks ago restore the Broncos' confidence? If they don't take the Saints' defense apart, the answer may be no, because N.O. doesn't have any defense. Denver won last, in '00.
Green Bay 26 *Houston 21 - The second of seven straight games with contenders for the Packers, who should make short work of Houston's pass defense. G.B. has never faced the Texans, but it was 3 for 3 in Houston against the old Oilers.
Indianapolis 27 *Chicago 17 - This may look like an easy pick, but the Bears' secondary has become the team's best feature, so the Colts will have to run more than they like to. Chicago won its fourth in a row over Indy four years ago.
*Jacksonville 19 Tennessee 13 - In Week Three, the Jaguars' Fred Taylor scored on a one-yard run with nine seconds left to lead them past the Titans 15-12. Though Tennessee may be fading, this is still closer than their records indicate.
*Minnesota 34 Detroit 15 - A team with no passing is no threat to the Vikings, and the Lions can't pass (or run). Minnesota has taken eight of this series' last nine, but the only double-digit wins were last year's, 23-13 and 24-14.
*N.Y. Giants 21 Atlanta 19 - Can Eli Manning and the Giants win when they absolutely have to? If N.Y.'s defensive line doesn't close some holes, this may end up like Atlanta's 27-7 victory in '03, in which Warrick Dunn ran for 178 yards.
N.Y. Jets 19 *Cleveland 14 - We're not quite ready to call the Jets desperate, but they, too, should be thinking of this as a win-or-die-trying confrontation. The Browns have won the last two matchups, most recently 24-21 two years ago.
*Philadelphia 22 Washington 10 - Closer than it looks, because the Redskins' defense is a whole lot better than the Dallas unit the Eagles bombed Monday night. Philly's streak in this series, after 27-25 and 31-7 wins in '03, stands at five.
Pittsburgh 28 *Cincinnati 7 - Seven weeks ago, in a battle of QB's of the future, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers got the best of Carson Palmer and the Bengals, 28-17. Pittsburgh can dominate Cincy without ever putting the ball up.
St. Louis 18 *Buffalo 15 - Another feels-like-an-upset pick, because the Rams' struggles on defense are as ugly as the Bills' on offense, and Buffalo can put the clamps on St. Louis's passing. The Rams and Bills last met six years ago.
San Diego 24 *Oakland 17 - If the Raiders don't find motivational fuel in their 42-14 drubbing by the Chargers three weeks ago, in which Drew Brees threw for five TD's, S.D. will sweep Oakland for the first time since -- anyone? -- '92.
*Seattle 25 Miami 9 - They Dolphins have found just about every way to lose, and a strong-running team like the Seahawks is their defensive nightmare. Miami has won five of the last six in the series, most recently three years ago.
*Tampa Bay 18 San Francisco 7 - Speaking of losing every which way, the 49ers won't go anywhere through the air against the Buccaneers, and their ground game -- like T.B.'s -- is one of the NFL's weakest. S.F. beat the Bucs 24-7 last year.
Week 11 - Monday, Nov. 22, 2004
New England 30 *Kansas City 23 - Why the Chiefs keep losing with their explosive offense is a mystery, but the Patriots, as they proved in St. Louis two weeks ago, are the picture of discipline. N.E. needed OT to get past K.C. 41-38 in '02.
Jets (6-3) at Browns (3-6)
Line: Pick 'em. Over-under: 37 1/2
It's a good thing Herman Edwards didn't go into the space program. There would have been many strange countdowns, nervous astronauts and rockets that never got off the ground. Herm should hire hoops icon Dean Smith as clock-management guru. Nobody used time better than Smith, though he always was granted unlimited timeouts. If Dean isn't interested, maybe Herm could get someone from Switzerland, where punctuality is a passion. The Jets outplayed Baltimore and should have won. If their minds are right, they should beat the Brownies, who won't stop Curtis Martin.
The pick: Jets
Giants: Savior? C'mon
Falcons (7-2) at Giants (5-4)
Line: Falcons by 2 1/2. O-U: 40.
Will Eli Manning lead a quick turnaround and a drive to the playoffs? I doubt it. For every Ben Roethlisberger, there are 50 rookie QBs who learn through painful mistakes. The Giants have a struggling offensive line and a defense that's mediocre without Michael Strahan. Big Blue could be a wild card, but 8-8 or 7-9 would be no shock. Atlanta has a strong pass rush, averages 156 yards rushing, and Michael Vick finally is getting the West Coast offense.
The pick: Falcons
Marquee matchups
Steelers (8-1) at Bengals (4-5)
Line: Steelers by 4 1/2. O-U: 40 1/2.
When almost everyone expects something to happen, it usually doesn't. After knocking off New England and Philadelphia, the Steelers were supposed to be flat and lose at Cleveland. It didn't happen, and maybe it won't happen this week, either. The Bengals have won three of four, so they're due to slip, too.
The pick: Steelers
Patriots (8-1) at Chiefs (3-6)
Line: Patriots by 3. O-U: 52.
The wacky NFL is aggravating my pal the Dalai Lama, who loves playing four-team teasers. Ponder his words of wisdom: "If a league is predictably unpredictable, does it not become boring?" New England is a unique rock of consistency and has won 10 in a row away. Priest Holmes (knee, doubtful) probably is out again, and KC's defense is a joke.
The pick: Patriots
Around the league
Cowboys (3-6) at Ravens (6-3)
Line: Ravens by 8. O-U: 36.
Bill Parcells appeared on the verge of tears while Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens played catch against his lifeless secondary. Afterward, a desperate Jerry Jones suggested they try out the young males among the 43 Cuban entertainers who defected in Vegas. "Bill, old man Castro produces great baseball players, so maybe one or two dancers could play D-back. Couldn't do much worse than what we've got now." Under Parcells, Dallas is 2-8 ATS. The pick: Ravens
Rams (5-4) at Bills (3-6)
Line: Rams by 1. O-U: 40.
Buffalo in mid-November is no place for a dome team, and the Rams are a long-term bad bet on the road (6-14 ATS since '02). Buffalo has won three straight at home. The Letdown/Rebound Theory may work, with St. Louis coming off a key win over Seattle and the Bills disgusted after a pounding by the Patriots.
The pick: Bills
Colts (6-3) at Bears (4-5)
Line: Colts by 7 1/2. O-U: 44 1/2.
Chicago's young, aggressive defense has fueled a three-game winning streak, which will end here. Stopping the league's top offense without injured LB Brian Urlacher will be infinitely tougher than frustrating Ken Dorsey, Kurt Warner and Billy Volek.
The pick: Colts
Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-5)
Line: Broncos by 4. O-U: 47.
The stats and coaching matchup (brilliant Mike Shanahan vs. bumbling Jim Haslett) favor Denver. So why do I have this gut feeling that the erratic, defensively challenged Saints can keep it close? Sometimes, you have to sniff the wind and sense the future like an animal.
The pick: Saints
Cardinals (4-5) at Panthers (2-7)
Line: Off (Panthers' Jake Delhomme questionable). O-U: Off.
Norm the former Cardinals fan is back on the bandwagon. He even used the word "we" in the final minutes of the win over the Giants. Although Arizona has lost 17 of 18 on the road, Carolina is poor at home (0-4 this year, no ******) and as a favorite (3-13 ATS).
The pick: Cardinals
Titans (3-6) at Jaguars (6-3)
Line: Off (Titans' Steve McNair, game-time decision). O-U: Off.
Road teams stay hot (76-65-3 ATS) while favorites (64-75-3 ATS, 2 pick 'ems) burn money. I'll take the home chalk because Tennessee is all messed up. Even if McNair returns, Jacksonville will handle the injury-riddled Titans.
The pick: Jaguars
Lions (4-5) at Vikings (5-4)
Line: Vikings by 7 1/2. O-U: 48.
After last-second defeats at Indy and Green Bay, the Vikings go home for a game they need desperately. Even without Randy Moss, they have too much firepower for the Lions, whose run 'D' and offense have been declawed.
The pick: Vikings
49ers (1-8) at Bucs (3-6)
Line: Bucs by 8. O-U: 41 1/2.
Somehow, the free-falling 49ers let Carolina score 34 second-half points. The Bucs aren't going anywhere but they're still playing hard for the crazed Jon Gruden. Maybe he'll take them to see "Seed of Chucky" to psych them up.
The pick: Bucs
Dolphins (1-8) at Seahawks (5-4)
Line: Seahawks by 10. O-U: 37 1/2.
What do Jim Bates and Ray Charles have in common? Like Charles, Miami's interim coach starts his career with a trip from Florida to Seattle. Unfortunately, Charles' "Born To Lose" has become the Dolphins' theme song. A.J. Feeley replaces Jay Fiedler at QB, which means a lucky Seahawk will return a pick for a TD.
The pick: Seahawks
Chargers (6-3) at Raiders (3-6)
Line: Chargers by 3 1/2. O-U: 48 1/2.
Who would have thought that refs on a beer commercial could be more annoying than NFL officials? The humor is blander than the beer. San Diego is the league's most pleasant surprise and best cover team (7-1-1). LaDainian Tomlinson runs wild as the Black Hole's freaks howl.
The pick: Chargers
Redskins (3-6) at Eagles (8-1)
Line: Eagles by 10 1/2. O-U: 38.
Data bank: Double-digit favorites are 7-0, but only 2-4-1 covering; however, Philly is 3-0 ATS when favored by 8½ or more. The Eagles didn't have to extend themselves while humiliating Dallas and have six wins by at least 10. Error-prone Patrick Ramsey replaces worthless Mark Brunell for the 'Skins, so expect turnovers.
The pick: Eagles
Packers (5-4) at Texans (4-5)
Line: Packers by 3. O-U: 49 1/2.
It could be wake-up time for Houston after routs at Denver and Indy. The Texans are fairly reliable at Reliant (eight ****** in last 12). Green Bay is ripe for a dud after four straight wins.
The pick: Texans
Dallas at Baltimore
This week they don't fumble the punts. This week they get Jason Witten over 100 yards again. This week they bug the crud out of Kyle Boller. This week Parcells doesn't threaten to jump out of the plane over Little Rock on the way home.
Dallas 20, Baltimore 10
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup St. Louis at Buffalo
I love Dr. Z picking this one by the weather. I probably should too. But somehow, I think Marc Bulger has played football outside before. And he's better than J.P Lost Soul, or whoever that was making his debut last Sunday.
St. Louis 23, Buffalo 21
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Arizona at Carolina
Before the year, I picked Darnell Dockett for my defensive rookie of the year. I was wrong. It's the Cardinal picked one round earlier: Karlos Dansby.
Arizona 29, Carolina 6
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Indianapolis at Chicago
Peyton Manning's one lucky duck. Light winds. High of 53. No rain. That's the weather for Sunday. That will make it all the less freaky when the Bears, without the advantage of weather, frustrate and pummel the Colts receivers all afternoon. Chicago 20, Indianapolis 17
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Before the game, Joey Porter walks over to Chad Johnson and says, "Pardon me, young fellow. But I think our side is going to score more points than yours today." They shake hands, wish each other luck and play the most sportsmanlike game in history.
Pittsburgh 38, Cincinnati 10
Sunday, 1 p.m. Preview | Matchup N.Y. Jets at Cleveland
I will have this last word on the debacle from last Sunday's Jets loss to Baltimore: How can you watch the lackadaisical, seemingly confused Quincy Carter down the stretch and not be praying that Chad Pennington's shoulder is OK if you're a Jets fan?
Jets 21, Cleveland 19
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Tennessee at Jacksonville
Go ahead. Predict games in the AFC South. If you pick half right, you are a Mel Kiperian scholar.
Tennessee 12, Jacksonville 10
Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Detroit at Minnesota
Just when you thought you could predict games in the NFC North, the Leos win their fourth of the year on the road.
Detroit 23, Minnesota 21
Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Denver at New Orleans
Let's see. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has thrown passes forward, sideways and backward this year. What's left? How about underhanded, to Broncos CB Champ Bailey, for the winning score with 2:16 left in the game.
Denver 27, New Orleans 20
Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Preview | Matchup San Francisco at Tampa Bay
I have no idea how the 49ers will score against a better defense than you all realize. And Brian Griese deserves half an off-day for his valor in the face of torment last week in Atlanta.
Tampa Bay 23, San Francisco 0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Preview | Matchup San Diego at Oakland
The last time these teams met, Al Davis allegedly said it was the worst Raiders team he'd ever seen. Losing by 20 at home to the Breeses will not change his mindset.
San Diego 30, Oakland 10
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Miami at Seattle
That's how excited the Dolphins are at the move back to A.J. Feeley.
Seattle 17, Miami 3
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Atlanta at N.Y. Giants
Unsolicited advice to Eli Manning: Watch out for number 75 on Atlanta. His name is Rod Coleman. He's good. The millisecond the ball slaps your hands from center, he'll be blasting through your line. So if you drop back 28 times Sunday, make sure 28 are three-step drops.
Atlanta 27, Giants 12
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Washington at Philadelphia
Just an uneducated guess, but my ample gut tells me it'll be a pretty vanilla open when FOX comes on the air for this game.
Philadelphia 20, Washington 13
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Preview | Matchup Green Bay at Houston
This will be Brett Favre's only appearance ever in Reliant Stadium, unless he's still playing in 2012, Green Bay's next scheduled visit to Houston. I can pretty much bet on that day in 2012 Favre will be cutting some long Mississippi grass, just outside Hattiesburg.
Green Bay 19, Houston 14
Monday, 9 p.m.
Preview | Matchup New England at Kansas City
You know the open we all want to see, ABC. We want to see Al Michaels -- clothed, please -- jump into John Madden's arms. Now that'll spike the ol' Nielsons.
New England 24, Kansas City 20
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