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Rams (5-4) @ Bills (3-6)- St Louis is 0-2 vs AFC; they need Holt (concussion) back, or else offense hampered. Would expect running with Faulk and Jackson, given probable windy day. Bills allowed 208 rushing yards last week in Foxboro, but won last three at home, scoring 26.7 ppg. Buffalo is 3-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-6 when it doesn't- their last four home games went over the total. Rams allowed 34-28-31-40 in their losses, average of 17.4 in wins; they're 2-2 on road. In their five wins, they ran ball 30.2 times a game- in losses, 17.0. Buffalo LB Fletcher was stalwart of Rams' Super Bowl champs
Cowboys (3-6) @ Ravens (6-3)- Baltimore covered their last five games, winning four; they're 3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 17-14-14 points. Dallas travels off short week, with a Thursday game ahead of them; they were riddled for 11.6 yards per pass attempt Monday night, although doubtful Boller can do similar damage. Dallas is minus-10 in turnovers last three games. Ravens outscored last five foes 55-15 in second half. Only one of six Dallas losses is by less than sixteen points; they're 1-2 as road dogs.
Jets (6-3) @ Browns (3-6)- Cleveland allowed 28.3 ppg in losing last three games; they're minus-8 in turnovers last four games, and have one TD in last 21 possessions since their bye, so win is needed here, or else Holcomb could be replacing Garcia at QB. Jets lost three of four; they are 4-0 when scoring more than 17 points, but scored 17-7-17 in last three road tilts. Four of last five Brown games went over total, as did last three Jet games. Browns have gone 3-and-out on 40 of 103 drives (38.8%), fifth-worst average in NFL.
Steelers (8-1) @ Bengals (4-5)- Pittsburgh won their last seven games, scoring 28.5 ppg in last six; they're run ball for 217.7 ypg in three games since bye. Steelers won eight of last nine games vs Bengals, four of five at this site; eight of last 12 series totals were 41+. Cincy lost the first meeting 28-17 at Heinz, with Steelers having TD drives of 80,89 yards in otherwise even game. Bengals won three of last four games; they're 3-1 at home, but they're 0-5 if they allow more than 13 points, and are 3-5 as dog this season. Pitt won last three on road; three of their four road games stayed under total.
Colts (6-3) @ Bears (4-5)- Chicago won their last three games, with defense thats forced 10 turnovers and 30
3-and-outs during streak, but with Urlacher out and potent Colt offense (14 TDs in last 31 drives) coming in, hard to overlook this QB mismatch (Manning/ Krenzel). Despite recent success of team, Bear offense is 4 for last 32 on third down, has six TD's on last 80 drives, and hasn't gained as much as 255 yards in last six contests. Indy is 2-2 on road; only one of their wins is by less than seven points. Colts are +9 in turnovers last eight games, so doubtful Bears can make hay that way. Lovie Smith worked for Dungy with the Buccaneers.
Lions (4-5) @ Vikings (5-4)- Detroit lost last six visits to this site, five by 7+ points; they lost eight of their last nine overall in series, including last four in row by an average score of 29-22 average. Lions are 4-5 despite trunover ratio of +10; they completed 11 of 33 passes in OT loss last week, scoring both TD's on Drummond PR's. Vikings lost last three games, despite scoring 59 points in last two; they're 3-1 at home, with wins by 18-5-17 points. Detroit is 3-3 as dog; they have just one TD on 24 drives in last two games. Vikings allowed 172.7 rushing yards per game in last three weeks.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Panthers (2-7)- Depleted Carolina rallied from 17-0 deficit on road last week to beat 49ers, scoring 34 points in second half; Delhomme will play despite fracture on tip of his passing thumb. Last three Panther games went over, as did five of last six Arizona games. Cards won last two games and are 3-1 since bye; home team lost three of four series games, with none of the totals over 37. Panthers are plus-5 in turnovers last three games, but ran ball 35 times for 87 yards last two. Arizona ended 18-game road loss streak last time out.
Titans (3-6) @ Jaguars (6-3)- Jax ended five-game series loss streak with 15-12 win in Week 3, scoring all their points in second half; Jags haven't swept Fisher since '97. Jaguars are 3-1 at home; backup QB Garrard was 19-36/176 vs Detroit last week, hitting Smith for TD in OT and converting 12 of 22 on third down, but special teams gave up two punt returns for TD's in blowing 17-0 lead. Titans are 1-3 since pounding Pack in Week 5 Monday nighter; they're 1-6 if they score less than 27 points. Titans won last two visits to this site, 28-10/30-17.
49ers (1-8) @ Buccaneers (3-6)- Niners blew 17-0 lead last week, allowing 34 points in second half to then-1-7 team; they beat Bucs last year, avenging '02 playoff loss, but they lost last two visits to this site, 13-6/31-6. 49ers are 2-5-1 as underdog this year; they've allowed 21+ points in every game, allowing 30.4 ppg in last five. Bucs scored 12 TD's on 46 drives with Griese under center, compared to four TD's in 52 drives up to that point, so they're getting better. Rattay gives Niners better chance to win, but depleted Niner defense (allowed 55 second half points in last two games) gives Tampa very good chance.
Broncos (6-3) @ Saints (4-5)- Erratic New Orleans is
4-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-4 when it doesn't; they have allowed 352 rush yards in two games since their bye, but they've scored 27+ in three of last four, as seven of their last eight games went over total. Only turf game of year for Denver, which has scored just 15.8 ppg on road this year (2-2). Plummer needs to eliminate the mistake; Bronco foes started nine drives in Denver territory last five games, scoring 39 points on those drives. Broncos are 5-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-2 if they don't. Saints are 2-3 at the Superdome, which is built on ancient Cajun burial grounds, explaining their sad history.
Falcons (7-2) @ Giants (5-4)- Strange trend, as road team 9-0 in last nine series games. Atlanta won on this field last two years, with Johnson and Kittner at QB, now Vick opposes Big Blue in Eli Manning's first NFL start. Would expect to see lot of blitzing from Birds, who are
3-1 on road; they've scored 21+ points in six of seven wins, were held to 10 in both losses. With both DE's out, Giant defense hampered; they're 1-3 since bye, and were just 5 for 27 on third down in last two games. Under is
7-1 in last eight Giant games, but with increased blitzing expected, more big plays should result, both ways.
Dolphins (1-8) @ Seahawks (5-4)- Feeley gets first start since Week 3 Steeler mudbath, as Bates takes over as head coach with Wannstedt fired. Fish are 2-5 as dog this year, 2-2 on road, with road losses by 3-14-7-27 points. Seattle 4-1 if it scores 21+ points, 0-3 if it doesn't; their WR's drop way too many passes, but Alexander leads running game thats run for average of 209 yards in last three games. Seattle 2-1 at home, scoring 28 ppg there; three of their five wins are by 14 or more points. Only four of eight Miami losses are by double figures.
Chargers (6-3) @ Raiders (3-6)- San Diego trying for first series sweep since '92; both sides off bye. Bolts won last three games (42,43 pts in last two) and Oakland 1-5 in last six games, allowing 32.2 ppg. Chargers lost five of last six visits to this site, with last two winding up in OT. In season's first meeting, Bolts dominated clearly, leading 28-7 at half in 42-14 win (Week 8); only five of their 64 plays came on third down. Chargers outrushed Raiders 175-22, averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt, and scored six TD's in first three quarters.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (8-1)- Philly won last five series meetings, with four of five by 13+ points, but they had lot of injuries Monday night and will be thin in spots here. Three of last four series totals were 44+, but Redskins have yet to score more than 18 points in game, averaging 13.7 ppg in three since their bye, as Brunell is horrible and Ramsey not much better- just once in their last five games have Skins completed half their passes, averaging less than 4.2 yards per attempt in each of those games. Washington defense has allowed six TD's in their last 60 drives, but you can see them sag late in games when offense sputters.
Packers (5-4) @ Texans (4-5)- Green Bay is 4-0 since
48-27 Monday night drubbing by Titans; in last four wins, they've scored 35.3 ppg (16 TD's/42 drives), and ran ball for 167.7 yards per game, so offensive line has raised its level, and Favre back to making plays (30 for last 51 on third down). Pack is 3-1 on road, with all wins by 10+ points. Houston got waxed last two weeks, allowing 80 points, and getting outscored 45-7 in first half. At home, Texans are 2-2, losing to Chargers, Vikings; they're 4-0 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-5 if they don't. Pack has scored 24-31-38-28 on the road this season.
Patriots (8-1) @ Chiefs (3-6)- Champs get everyone's best shot, but especially for a 3-6 Chief team that is hugr disappointment, this could be their Super Bowl. With Holmes out last week, KC still ran ball for 200 yards in loss to Saints; Chiefs scored 101 points in winning last two home games. With Brady throwing, Dillon running, Patriot offense has befuddled better defense than sorry Chief stop unit; six of their last seven wins are by 10+ points, and Dillon sat in only game they lost, at red-hot Steelers. Still, Monday night home dog, especially one led by the emotional Vermeil, liable to rise up and pull upset.
Cowboys (3-6) @ Ravens (6-3)- Baltimore covered their last five games, winning four; they're 3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 17-14-14 points. Dallas travels off short week, with a Thursday game ahead of them; they were riddled for 11.6 yards per pass attempt Monday night, although doubtful Boller can do similar damage. Dallas is minus-10 in turnovers last three games. Ravens outscored last five foes 55-15 in second half. Only one of six Dallas losses is by less than sixteen points; they're 1-2 as road dogs.
Jets (6-3) @ Browns (3-6)- Cleveland allowed 28.3 ppg in losing last three games; they're minus-8 in turnovers last four games, and have one TD in last 21 possessions since their bye, so win is needed here, or else Holcomb could be replacing Garcia at QB. Jets lost three of four; they are 4-0 when scoring more than 17 points, but scored 17-7-17 in last three road tilts. Four of last five Brown games went over total, as did last three Jet games. Browns have gone 3-and-out on 40 of 103 drives (38.8%), fifth-worst average in NFL.
Steelers (8-1) @ Bengals (4-5)- Pittsburgh won their last seven games, scoring 28.5 ppg in last six; they're run ball for 217.7 ypg in three games since bye. Steelers won eight of last nine games vs Bengals, four of five at this site; eight of last 12 series totals were 41+. Cincy lost the first meeting 28-17 at Heinz, with Steelers having TD drives of 80,89 yards in otherwise even game. Bengals won three of last four games; they're 3-1 at home, but they're 0-5 if they allow more than 13 points, and are 3-5 as dog this season. Pitt won last three on road; three of their four road games stayed under total.
Colts (6-3) @ Bears (4-5)- Chicago won their last three games, with defense thats forced 10 turnovers and 30
3-and-outs during streak, but with Urlacher out and potent Colt offense (14 TDs in last 31 drives) coming in, hard to overlook this QB mismatch (Manning/ Krenzel). Despite recent success of team, Bear offense is 4 for last 32 on third down, has six TD's on last 80 drives, and hasn't gained as much as 255 yards in last six contests. Indy is 2-2 on road; only one of their wins is by less than seven points. Colts are +9 in turnovers last eight games, so doubtful Bears can make hay that way. Lovie Smith worked for Dungy with the Buccaneers.
Lions (4-5) @ Vikings (5-4)- Detroit lost last six visits to this site, five by 7+ points; they lost eight of their last nine overall in series, including last four in row by an average score of 29-22 average. Lions are 4-5 despite trunover ratio of +10; they completed 11 of 33 passes in OT loss last week, scoring both TD's on Drummond PR's. Vikings lost last three games, despite scoring 59 points in last two; they're 3-1 at home, with wins by 18-5-17 points. Detroit is 3-3 as dog; they have just one TD on 24 drives in last two games. Vikings allowed 172.7 rushing yards per game in last three weeks.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Panthers (2-7)- Depleted Carolina rallied from 17-0 deficit on road last week to beat 49ers, scoring 34 points in second half; Delhomme will play despite fracture on tip of his passing thumb. Last three Panther games went over, as did five of last six Arizona games. Cards won last two games and are 3-1 since bye; home team lost three of four series games, with none of the totals over 37. Panthers are plus-5 in turnovers last three games, but ran ball 35 times for 87 yards last two. Arizona ended 18-game road loss streak last time out.
Titans (3-6) @ Jaguars (6-3)- Jax ended five-game series loss streak with 15-12 win in Week 3, scoring all their points in second half; Jags haven't swept Fisher since '97. Jaguars are 3-1 at home; backup QB Garrard was 19-36/176 vs Detroit last week, hitting Smith for TD in OT and converting 12 of 22 on third down, but special teams gave up two punt returns for TD's in blowing 17-0 lead. Titans are 1-3 since pounding Pack in Week 5 Monday nighter; they're 1-6 if they score less than 27 points. Titans won last two visits to this site, 28-10/30-17.
49ers (1-8) @ Buccaneers (3-6)- Niners blew 17-0 lead last week, allowing 34 points in second half to then-1-7 team; they beat Bucs last year, avenging '02 playoff loss, but they lost last two visits to this site, 13-6/31-6. 49ers are 2-5-1 as underdog this year; they've allowed 21+ points in every game, allowing 30.4 ppg in last five. Bucs scored 12 TD's on 46 drives with Griese under center, compared to four TD's in 52 drives up to that point, so they're getting better. Rattay gives Niners better chance to win, but depleted Niner defense (allowed 55 second half points in last two games) gives Tampa very good chance.
Broncos (6-3) @ Saints (4-5)- Erratic New Orleans is
4-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-4 when it doesn't; they have allowed 352 rush yards in two games since their bye, but they've scored 27+ in three of last four, as seven of their last eight games went over total. Only turf game of year for Denver, which has scored just 15.8 ppg on road this year (2-2). Plummer needs to eliminate the mistake; Bronco foes started nine drives in Denver territory last five games, scoring 39 points on those drives. Broncos are 5-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-2 if they don't. Saints are 2-3 at the Superdome, which is built on ancient Cajun burial grounds, explaining their sad history.
Falcons (7-2) @ Giants (5-4)- Strange trend, as road team 9-0 in last nine series games. Atlanta won on this field last two years, with Johnson and Kittner at QB, now Vick opposes Big Blue in Eli Manning's first NFL start. Would expect to see lot of blitzing from Birds, who are
3-1 on road; they've scored 21+ points in six of seven wins, were held to 10 in both losses. With both DE's out, Giant defense hampered; they're 1-3 since bye, and were just 5 for 27 on third down in last two games. Under is
7-1 in last eight Giant games, but with increased blitzing expected, more big plays should result, both ways.
Dolphins (1-8) @ Seahawks (5-4)- Feeley gets first start since Week 3 Steeler mudbath, as Bates takes over as head coach with Wannstedt fired. Fish are 2-5 as dog this year, 2-2 on road, with road losses by 3-14-7-27 points. Seattle 4-1 if it scores 21+ points, 0-3 if it doesn't; their WR's drop way too many passes, but Alexander leads running game thats run for average of 209 yards in last three games. Seattle 2-1 at home, scoring 28 ppg there; three of their five wins are by 14 or more points. Only four of eight Miami losses are by double figures.
Chargers (6-3) @ Raiders (3-6)- San Diego trying for first series sweep since '92; both sides off bye. Bolts won last three games (42,43 pts in last two) and Oakland 1-5 in last six games, allowing 32.2 ppg. Chargers lost five of last six visits to this site, with last two winding up in OT. In season's first meeting, Bolts dominated clearly, leading 28-7 at half in 42-14 win (Week 8); only five of their 64 plays came on third down. Chargers outrushed Raiders 175-22, averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt, and scored six TD's in first three quarters.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (8-1)- Philly won last five series meetings, with four of five by 13+ points, but they had lot of injuries Monday night and will be thin in spots here. Three of last four series totals were 44+, but Redskins have yet to score more than 18 points in game, averaging 13.7 ppg in three since their bye, as Brunell is horrible and Ramsey not much better- just once in their last five games have Skins completed half their passes, averaging less than 4.2 yards per attempt in each of those games. Washington defense has allowed six TD's in their last 60 drives, but you can see them sag late in games when offense sputters.
Packers (5-4) @ Texans (4-5)- Green Bay is 4-0 since
48-27 Monday night drubbing by Titans; in last four wins, they've scored 35.3 ppg (16 TD's/42 drives), and ran ball for 167.7 yards per game, so offensive line has raised its level, and Favre back to making plays (30 for last 51 on third down). Pack is 3-1 on road, with all wins by 10+ points. Houston got waxed last two weeks, allowing 80 points, and getting outscored 45-7 in first half. At home, Texans are 2-2, losing to Chargers, Vikings; they're 4-0 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-5 if they don't. Pack has scored 24-31-38-28 on the road this season.
Patriots (8-1) @ Chiefs (3-6)- Champs get everyone's best shot, but especially for a 3-6 Chief team that is hugr disappointment, this could be their Super Bowl. With Holmes out last week, KC still ran ball for 200 yards in loss to Saints; Chiefs scored 101 points in winning last two home games. With Brady throwing, Dillon running, Patriot offense has befuddled better defense than sorry Chief stop unit; six of their last seven wins are by 10+ points, and Dillon sat in only game they lost, at red-hot Steelers. Still, Monday night home dog, especially one led by the emotional Vermeil, liable to rise up and pull upset.
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